Proposed Changes to How Rare Illuvitar in Mega D1SKs is Calculated

[royal nova]

Currently
My understanding is that currently it works like this - when you open your D1SK there is a "random roll" where you get your Illuvitar based on all the numbers and rarity. If you open a Mega D1SK it works the same way, but if the "random roll" is Illuvitar with <1500 Power the "random roll" happens again until there is an Illuvitar with at least 1500 Power and then you get it.

Problem
Because of how this works there is a lot of problems with rarity of Illuvitars around that 1500 Power mark. I will provide examples in the comment below. From the examples it's easy to see how there is a lot more of some Illuvitars than there should be.

Proposed changes
I propose we move away from minimum 1500 power and change the rarity in Mega D1SKs compared to Regular D1SKs.

For example - If there is 50% chance to get T1 Illuvitar and 20% chance to get T2 Illuvitar in Regular D1SK, we change that number to 20% for T1 and 50% for T2. That way you can still get Tier 1 Stage 1 Illuvitar in Mega D1SK, but it will be as rare as Tier 5 in Regular D1SK. (all the numbers and example are obviously wrong on purpose just to illustrate how the change will work)

You would still be getting better Illuvitars in Mega D1SKs and would have better chance of higher tiers because of how the numbers will work. But there won't be broken amount of Holo Lynxes....

This would require time from Perry and Aaron probably to get that numbers right. This would also require us to rethink the pricing of D1SKs (something we are doing for the last 2 weeks or more). And this would also require some time from backend devs.

But with all that being said. I think this is an important change and in my opinion it's now or never. This should not be postponed anymore. We have to work this out now and get it right.

Examples

Non Alpha Virtuous Floralynx with T1S1 background
648 Non Holo
163 Holo (~4.8x more then there should be)

Non Alpha Virtuous Terralynx with T1S1 background
635 Non Holo
168 Holo (~5x more then there should be)

Non Alpha Relentless Zephyrlynx with T1S1 background
611 Non Holo
176 Holo (~5.5x more then there should be)

Non Alpha Arcane Emberlynx with T1S1 background
632 Non Holo
172 Holo (~5.2x more then there should be)

Non Holo Common Expression Dash
995 Regular
294 Alpha

Non Holo Winking Dash
1369 Regular (~2.9x more then there should be compared to Common Expression Dash)
410 Alpha (~2.8x more then there should be compared to Common Expression Dash)

Non Holo Empowered Dash
424 Regular (~2.6x more then there should be compared to Common Expression Dash)
136 Alpha (~2.8x more then there should be compared to Common Expression Dash)

Non Holo Common Expression Phyri
879 Regular
241 Alpha

Non Holo Suspiciousss Phyri
1297 Regular (~3x more then there should be compared to Common Expression Phyri)
381 Alpha (~3.2x more then there should be compared to Common Expression Phyri)

Non Holo Annoyed Phyri
452 Regular (~3.1x more then there should be compared to Common Expression Phyri)
118 Alpha (~2.9x more then there should be compared to Common Expression Phyri)

[fierce mirage]

Not sure how they will solve this but it definitely needs some adjustments. Thanks for making this thread.

[dark vale]

Thanks for posting - the rates have been discussed for weeks along with pricing.

I shared the link to this new idea in "Council Roundtable" just now so that they are all aware this was posted.

I am not voting yet but yes, the IMHO odds have always been skewing results from megas with the "guaranteed rares" > 1500 power

[gritty robin]

I don't think there is an issue but let's have a chat and I can explain

Your issue is that the 'X more than there should be' exists or that it is not consistent?

[fierce mirage]

was not expecting for you to say you don't think there is an issue here...

so having more uncommon illuvitars then their common version is ok to you?

[gritty robin]

People pay premium for Mega D1SKs to have a shortcut to more rare outcomes in the rarity distribution

Therefore if Mega's sell really well (as they did in Wave 1) compared to Standards, outcomes after the threshold can exists more than outcomes before the threshold

I agree this can come across a bit awkward, this is one of the main reasons I argue for a bigger price difference between Standards and Mega's, but it's an outcome we expected if the Standard/Mega ratio was this skewed
Also not saying the idea presented here should be shot down as I think it feels better
But the proposal that was accepted for Wave 1 had the words "guaranteed rare" in them, therefore we went for this solution and not for a solution where weights were shifted (because the rare would not be "guaranteed")

[fierce mirage]

sure I get that, but I see a problem here on the T4's and I think their odds should be addressed. All other tiers this doesn't happen but on T4's we have more uncommon than common ones.

not arguing price points here, just drop chance %, either standard or mega we should always strive to maintain balance

and having something common more rare than uncommons just isn't right wouldn't you say?

[gritty robin]

I think it is a logical consequence of promising a 'guaranteed rare' in one of the product variations and making that product variation good value

[fierce mirage]

I also said on another thread with numbers to back it up that the gap between t1 or T2 and T3 is a bit too big compared to t3 to t4 or t5

For example, looking only at non alpha normal expressions there are around 12-13k tier1 stage1 (archie, atlas, kukka), 11.9k tier2 stage 1 lynxes and then we jump to 1.7k tier3 stage1 (rypter, vermillia), tier4 stage1 (dash) with 1k and tier5 stage1 squizz with 939.
It's clear to see there is a big gap between T1/T2 and T3 and very little between T4 and T5. Since there won't be any more tier2 stage1 I guess now is the time to adjust these drop rates.

[gritty robin]

To my knowledge that is being addressed in the upcoming proposal, but I'm not on top of it ser. I agree! Even though there is something to be said about keeping T5 special

[fierce mirage]

I would keep t5 the same and pump up t3 and t4 a bit accordingly

[gritty robin]

The last numbers I saw had exactly this

[fierce mirage]

noice

[gritty robin]

This is due to the power threshold landing on T2, so mega's were full of T2 and standards had a decent chance at them as well

Lynx fiesta

[gritty robin]

But no promises, I'm not council

[fierce mirage]

all good man thanks for the feedback

[royal nova]

My main issue is that you should be getting a holo once in every 20 shots. But with Lynxes we have a holo basically once for every 5 Lynxes.
I don’t like it’s not 1/20 and it’s not consistent with rest of the Illuvitars.

I do get your point that they pay premium for mega and therefore it’s a Lynx fiesta. But on the other hand no one is excited or will be about Lynx holo as it’s not as rare.

I have no idea how the backend works and if we could just have “holo roll” after the fact when you get your rare Illuvitar or if we should change the whole logic on how to pick rates.

But while on the topic of other suggestion. And I know it’s not the right place here. But why aren’t we making Holos more premium instead of T5. Then instead of 200 T5S3 we would have 500 but still there would be only 5 holos. (made up numbers)

[gritty robin]

Yeah you actually scared the crap out of me by posting those T4's but apparently you're comparing Alpha's, not sure why

(I'm expecting a similar effect for Common Expression T4S1 as some backgrounds take it over the threshold whereas others don't, not the case for Uncommon/Rare Expression though)

[royal nova]

I’m comparing both Alpha and non-Alpha with itself. It’s basically the same numbers all around but a bit different.

[gritty robin]

There's a bunch of levers we can pull here to be fair, but it's in the hands of the council
Not 100% on the dev work and we're already 'very late' wrt expected delivery date, but could be an idea for next Waves or next Sets, keep those suggestions coming!

Your Holo point is quite decent, we had it at 1:100 internally once upon a time 😂

[royal nova]

Dash with expressions for non-Alpha is 995:1369:424 and for Phyri is 879:1297:452.

Those numbers should be close to 6:3:1.

[gritty robin]

Are you talking 'should' from a feel perspective or 'should' knowing that there is a power threshold system for Wave 1?

[royal nova]

But yeah, my point basically is that I don’t like the 1500 threshold and would much rather have better odds in Megas. Then pricing multiplier would be much easier to get right as well.

[royal nova]

‘Should’ from the official numbers that were shared saying that you would get uncommon 60% of the time, common 30% of the time and rare 10% of the time.

[gritty robin]

It's a fair point honestly, the reason we added 'guaranteed' (to memory) is that we thought it would feel really bad if you paid a premium for an odds shortcut and you got smashed by an unlucky 5% Atlas roll

[royal nova]

Also, I would say that this was the easiest solution and it was changed pretty late so there wasn’t enough time for something more ‘complicated’. (this is only my guess, i have no idea of behind the scenes)

[gritty robin]

Perhaps our comms on the blog should have been more clear (or have a detailed official version somewhere), I'll have a chat about that internally

The statement here is correct for Standards, but not for Mega's, as some expressions fall above and some below the threshold

[royal nova]

But isn’t it the same for Megas. You get the same roll as in Regular, but if that is not above 1500, you get another roll. (as per Aaron from my memory)

And because of that those numbers are of course different. But going from 1/20 chance for Holo in Regular to 1/3 in Mega is a bit much. And in my opinion it should always be 1/20 if not less chance. Same with expressions.

Because of how the ‘Rare Illuvitar’ is being calculated everyone is having problems with their math about how rare is something really.

And because of all those reasons I think we need a different approach. Separate chance tables for Regular and Mega.

Also, like I said. Math would be easier then and we could calculate how rare is something based on what D1SK you bought and we could be able to calculate how much better is Mega D1SK and how much more it should cost.

[quaint tendon]

Isn't it 1250 threshold for Mega D1sk?

[gritty robin]

yup

[royal nova]

My bad than. But everything else I said pretty much works/is true regardless. If I knew it was 1250 i could have found even more examples. But I think we all get the big picture here of what I’m trying to say.

[quaint tendon]

I thought I missed some new change tbh. I bought this lynx as my pfp because it was just under the 1250 threshold.

[gritty robin]

What cutoff would you recommend 🙂 ?

[quaint tendon]

The new weights proposed in new Wave 2 IIP.

[round siren]

What if there is no cutt off?

The odds for mega just change to become far better odds

There is no guaranteed power, just better odds for higher tier illuvials, backgrounds etc.

[gritty robin]

Mostly the argument I stated above, feels really bad when you buy your first Mega and you get rekt by an unlucky T1S1 roll

Bad enough to lose the 'player'

[round siren]

I mean, when u get a lynx u’re still getting rekt, thats kind of the point

You artificially make something mid-tier into essentially low tier, you still lose $ value on most disks you open, of I get rekt with an archie or rekt with a lynx, its still feels equally rekt…

No cut off just means the odds work better from bottom to top

[gritty robin]

I don't think rekt/non-rekt is a binary outcome here, there's levels to rekt

[round siren]

U mean spending 5x more for a Mega Disk, at least u get rekt with a lynx which is still worth a bit more than an archie, rekt with an archie at the same price would be too harsh?

[round siren]

I find the logic here to be very compelling

[grim jacinth]

Couldn’t you change the odds, but also keep the guarantee of 1200+.
It still wouldn’t be perfect, but it’ll be much better.

[gritty robin]

It's imperative that we make sure that Mega's are still a good deal

[grim jacinth]

Wouldn’t this suggestion make it a better deal than just changing the odds?

[gritty robin]

Don't know what you're referring to specifically

[royal nova]

As I stated above, I don’t like the cutoff at all.

There needs to be a different criteria, something in line with:
a) better odds for higher tier
b) better odds for higher tier but no tier 1s
c) better odds for higher tier + better odds for holo
d) better odds for higher tier + better odds for better background
e) better odds for higher tier + better odds for rare expression
f) combination of those above

I just don’t like the roll and then checking if it’s above 1250 or not, and if not roll again.

That’s also why we have shenanigans with current pricing where Megas are sometimes 6x sometimes 9x depending on the buyers….

[grim jacinth]

Referring the message you responded to. Having the odds changed to make megas a better deal, but also keeping the power level guarantee.

[gritty robin]

I just don’t like the roll and then checking if it’s above 1250 or not, and if not roll again
valid way of implementing a cutoff, look up the algo I sent you, you just really don't like the cutoff?

[royal nova]

Not sure what algo you're talking about.

But it's not that I don't like the algo. I don't like what it provides. I don't like the outcome of 1/5 Holo Lynxes instead of 1/20. I don't like it's easier to get uncommon expression Dash instead of common expression Dash. That's what I don't like.

[round siren]

I actually agree with this

[round siren]

and that one of these or a combination of these are the solution (or at least an alternative to a cut off)

Do we have time to do this for wave 2 illuvitars? maybe not...

Is it worth discussing and taking this proposal further if it has support? Yes, could be done for wave 3 for sure if we get agreement surrounding it

If the only benefit to having a cut-off is preventing people getting something really common in a Mega disk
but it simultaniously makes it so that mid-ter rarity becomes more common, essentially meaning you can still get something quite common anyways...

[edgy tapir]

But this proposal means that you'll have to completely review how megas are priced as well. I would not buy a mega at the suggested 5x to 6x price of a standard when I have a 50% chance to pull a T2 (to use your example) with no guarantee of points either. Or am I missing something?

[royal nova]

That's exactly what i'm suggesting. With changed structure it will be easier to price Megas the right way.

But my suggestion is not trying to make every pull a T2. My suggestion is making Megas with better chance of high power Illuvitar. Not only in tier, but in background, expression, holos and maybe accessories?

[edgy tapir]

Got it now. The idea is interesting but it'll entail so many changes and things to be considered that it's probably better to discuss it for wave 3 like vetemor suggested. Just my opinion 🙂

[royal nova]

My opinion is that we should postpone Wave 2 if needed to implement this changes as soon as possible. It wouldn't be the first time that we postponed something to make it better. But I have a feeling there is no way we are doing this before (if ever) Wave 2 as we are in some kind of a rush all of a sudden.

[dark vale]

If sentiment is reached there is always options to explore, but wave 2 is already behind an internal schedule related to dev work.
Anything that affects dev time and could hinder game launch will be scrutinized it feels...

With that said, I feel like the threshold and re-roll model is the main culprit of the skewed numbers and by reviewing further data sets that might be available internally it might help determine/confirm

For instance, how many of the illuvitars you mentioned in your data (#1130840446109761627 message) were caused by Mega D1sk's guaranteed rare? 🤔

[formal tapir]

hmph 🤣

[grim jacinth]

I know I know. 1250.

[formal tapir]

🤣

[olive trail]

yeah the feeling u get when u see a just above 1250 power lynx in a mega thats worth 2 dollars had it happen dozens of times too lol even a rare lynx is generally garbage sadly.

[royal nova]

Common Expression non-Alpha below
*number about them is the base power number for them with T1S1 bg and common expression

Power: 125
Atlas Holo is at 6.3%
Archie Holo is at 6.1%
Kukka Holo is at 6.4%

Power: 412
Teeantee Holo is at 14%
Kukkulus Holo is at 14.3%
Axon Holo is at 14.2%

Power: 453
Lynx Holo is at 14.1%

Power: 699
Axodon Holo is at 21.7%

Power: 740
Nimble Lynx Holo is at 20.6%

Power: 781
Vermilia Holo is at 20.7%
Rypter Holo is at 19.6%

Power: 1027
Arcane Emberlynx Holo is at 12.6%
Virtuous Floralynx Holo is at 12.2%
Virtuous Terralynx Holo is at 13.3%
Relentless Zephyrlynx Holo is at 13.1%

Power: 1068
Krunk Holo is at 13.1%

Power: 1102
Dash Holo is at 12.6%
Phyri Holo is at 14.6%

---

Power: 1355
Slashin Holo is at 5%

Power: 1389
Singe Holo is at 5.2%

Power: 1422
Squizz Holo is at 3.9%

Power: 1676
Geyyser Holo is at 5.7%

Power: 1709
Adoredo Holo is at 6.6%
Goliant Holo is at 4.3%

Power: 1996
Rhamphyre Holo is at 5.5%

[royal nova]

It's 100% no doubt in anyones mind that it's all caused by Mega D1SK threshold.

More context on the stats above.

How many Holos of every Illuvitar there is... (There should be 5% for every Illuvitar as you should get a Holo 1 in 20 times.

When we start really small, with Atlas, Archie an Kukka, it's really hard for them to cross the threshold of 1250 so that's why they have a decent percantage at around 6.2%, but still you can notice something isn't right, as you can only get Holo version of them (or really good background) in Mega D1SKs.

As soon as the numbers are a bit higher and Holo version is above 1250 we see how broken the threshold is. Nimble Lynx is holo 1/5 times. Axodon even more often. Vermilia and Rypter with similar numbers.

But as soon as we go over 1250 with base numbers we are back at the good old 5%.

*some numbers are not close to 5% only because there is not enough data. i.e. there is too little of them to be 5%. But we can figure it out that it works perfectly for everything that is not getting screwed by 1250 threshold.

[royal nova]

We can also have a look at Emo Vermilia.

There should be around 3 times more T1S1 background than there is T1S2 background. There should also be similar amount of T1S1 compared to T2S1.

T1S1 bg - 119
T1S2 bg - 204
T2S1 bg - 196

[gritty robin]

Working as expected so far

Where's your suggestion for doing it better?

[royal nova]

I agree with you that it's working as expected as it's really easy to just simulate data and get to that numbers depending on how mch Mega D1SKs are going to be sold.

But I argue it should not be that way.

I also agree with you that if we do no matter what, any solution would be similar, something would be broken because Mega D1SKs give be better value and better odds.

If we change that you can't get T1 in Mega D1SKs there would be broken amount of T2 compared to T1.

But if we change that you can get better expression in the Mega D1SKs, it will be the same all across the board for every Illuvitar.
If we change that you have better odds for Holo in Mega D1SKs, it will be the same all across the board for every Illuvitar.
If we change that you can get better backgrounds, it will be the same all across the board for every Illuvitar.

I don't like the fact that you get Holo 1/20 times. But it's sometimes 1/8, and sometimes 1/5.

It should be the same all across the board. Every Illuvitar should have the similar Holo chance in the end.

[gritty robin]

If we give better odds for holo in Mega D1SKs (without a cutoff) then the true distribution won't be 1:20 either?

[royal nova]

But it will be the same for every Illuvitar. T1, T2, T3, T4 and T5 right?

[gritty robin]

For every tier separately, if you only adjust Tier odds and Holo odds, I think so yes

[royal nova]

If Mega change both Tier odds and Holo odds it probably won’t be the same tbh.
But for example if you only change the the Holo odds it will always be the same for every Illuvitar.
Same with expressions, same with backgrounds.
But changing the tier odds probably screws up a bit those numbers.

But I get - if we don’t change the tier odds you would still be getting t1 50% of the time.

I’m not saying there is a perfect solution, I’m saying there is a better one for sure.

Of course 1/5 holo chance for some is expected behaviour based on numbers and data. But my question is: do we really want that?

I guess in the main game it will be equal chance for every Illuvial to be holo based on some number. Why are Illuvitars different in that regard.

Also, I would much rather have broken background and expression rarities than having broken Holo odds. Imo that’s something we should honor. You should be lucky to pull a holo every time. Not just on some Illuvitars.