#Weather and geological phenomena
grim salmon
unborn timber
Image I actually sent to the NWS just now šµāš«
Two geolocation requests sent by a storm chaser!
Very proud how these turned out.
grim salmon
weather adjacent but interesting AF
jagged niche
Always fun seeing those things around!
unborn timber
Twitter
A potential CAT 5 in July is... historic for this area,
(2MPH away from the strict classification for the rating- from the recon trips.)
severe kernel
Anybody here use windy pro? Do you think it's worth it?
jagged niche
Its not supposed to happen so damn soon in the year
unborn timber
Twitter
unborn timber
unborn timber
https://fxtwitter.com/Ericwang1101/status/1809239100324790542
starting geolocation attempt for this area.
leaden mountain
35Ā°19'50"N 115Ā°11'33"E a good candidate?
unborn timber
I got a lead that it may be closer to Heze, (Unverified- might be one of the 3 areas hit, and not specifically where the image is.)
My specific "what i'm looking for" notes,
That red roofed building across the street with the large parking lot is probably what'll tie the geolocation together.
unborn timber
35Ā°19'50"N 115Ā°11'33"E a good candidate?
Also- unfortunately looks to be of a different area
We're also on the edge of residental vs industrial,
unborn timber
https://fxtwitter.com/Ericwang1101/status/1809286060519911643
I also have my suspicions that this video is at the same area
leaden mountain
I also have my suspicions that this video ***is at the same area***
Agreed. They look separate.
unborn timber
Also to add into confusion- there were atleast 2 tornados in this province.
(Potentially up to 5!)
So trying to geolocate additional tornado footage may not fully help.
Different footage geolocated (Notably CLOSE to where your coords were!)
Resorting to finding more data from original source- Went to Douyin.
Welp that went into the shadowrealm.
Not gonna mess with Automod- if you wanna look at the source vid- Go to Douyin and type in those numbers seen at the bottom right.
probably near a gas station that's labled as "Sinopec"
unborn timber
unborn timber
Yes i am currently attempting to reach out to see if the concrete plant has been geolocated (mainly so I don't "double work" a solved area.)
leaden mountain
Still feeling good about my location of the first video. Looks like it's on the red path.
jagged niche
Strange weather today in Texas: thereās these things called ācloudsā in the sky? (This is a joke comment, Iām actually relieved that thereās clouds)
Damn shame itās preceding a storm though
unborn timber
Still feeling good about my location of the first video. Looks like it's on the ...
The first video?
If you're talking about the apartment complex vid- that was 4 miles to the SW,
leaden mountain
The first video?
Ah, the first I did. #1204206076493434930 message
unborn timber
https://fxtwitter.com/Ericwang1101/status/1809286060519911643
Yeah this is the same concrete plant.
White and blue silos,
Recorder was in a crane or something similar (forklift/ tractor?)
In fact, when that "outer shell" collapses- it reveals an interior that is close to what other industrial concrete mixers in China look like
Well,
This would have made my life easier.
unborn timber
Yeah Louisiana is getting rocked
Pleasant Hill may have been hit just now
That one is quite strong
Both of these are quite strong
jagged niche
Goddamn
unborn timber
languid belfry
We've got the remnants of hitting us here in Southern Ontario tomorrow
Got a rainfall and wind warning in effect in Toronto
unborn timber
Strong tornado in KY again.
PDS issued
How close it got to town
Debris spike.
Uniontown, however likely was hit to some degree
unborn timber
Twitter
unborn timber
unborn timber
Very rough path estimation- assuming the higher degree of damage to be on the right side of the core winds (from tornado's perspective)
unborn timber
Twitter
unborn timber
Might have been one of the strongest fire tornados of recent history. That one fuckin went for it
Bizarrely, since was a case of arson (someone set fire to a car),
This is one of the first verifiable "man made tornados" occuring in a way.
...don't let the crazies hear that one tho.
grim salmon
unborn timber
unborn timber
https://fxtwitter.com/wdsu/status/1834046821238235365/video/1
Driver was rescued about 10-15 minutes after this clip ends.
unborn timber
Twitter
š
Reed Timmer is one of the go to guys in the field- if you've seen storm chasing documentaries/TV shows (Especially back in 2011-2013)- That was likely Reed Timmer.
unborn timber
you can spot 2011 pretty easily on this graph
jagged niche
Oh boi
jagged niche
Every time i see tornados, theres a small part that says "This gots be CGI"
at a certain point, weather looks fundamentally fake
unborn timber
š„¹
unborn timber
If I had a nickel for every youtuber named Will that I researched for-
I'd have two nickels, which isn't a lot but it's weird it's happened twice
unborn timber
casual <2% day
2nd tornado hit Portland, Indiana.
Damage pics so far show houses missing roofs, trees that got absolutely munched, I'd estimate a suprisingly strong tornado rolled through the area- but likely wouldn't be lethal
(Not sharing as the home's address is plastered on the side of the building- not risking it. It's on Twitter.)
jagged niche
Dang. Hope everyone made it out unharmed
unborn timber
This image I can share- looking at the HS
https://x.com/INILKYWeather/status/1838017086498455600
my assessment of the damage pics (Camera is orientated North), geolocated to 40Ā°25'46.01"N 85Ā° 1'15.17"W
That "Unknown object" (as seen in the above screenshot- that box could be the school's HVAC system, maybe. Very hard to tell.
That would be DOD 5 here (EXP of 101 MPH, although could range between 85-119 MPH. further review needed. but likely is on the lower end of that scale.)
unborn timber
Damage pics so far show houses missing roofs, trees that got absolutely munched,...
That house has a large overhang on the right side (Heading of 295 degrees/ NW)- Likely a point of failure as the wind got under it and levered that entire section of roof up and off the building.
Likely will be rated less than what would be typical.
(literally if the house was on the other side of the street/ didn't have that porch, likely would have much less damage.)
(More damage pics around the HS)- looks like decent roof damage [also under DOD5], tree damage would likely be DOD 4 here. (I'm not a tree dude so I can't tell if this would be TH or TS.)
If all DI's are EXP- most of these are agreeing with around 100-110 MPH range at first glance Please refer to the NWS report when it is (eventually) finished.
Found additional (closer) pictures- Likely part of the school's HVAC system.
https://x.com/CalebIvins1/status/1838027909820276778
unborn timber
unborn timber
Twitter
unborn timber
If all DI's are EXP- most of these are agreeing with around 100-110 MPH range at...
lol, lmao even- First preliminary has the trees at 100 MPH, HS at 110 MPH.
unborn timber
my assessment of the damage pics (Camera is orientated North), geolocated to 40Ā°...
green line is the estimated centerpoint for the preliminary rating,
Green triangles indicate an EF1 DI,
the pins are my notes from here
unborn timber
Right mover on the KY/TN state line!
that storm takes a hard eastern shift and immediately starts showin promise,
unborn timber
Twitter
unborn timber
Twitter
unborn timber
Might see some flood damage as far north as Atlanta, GA honestly- they're getting rained on quite a bit today as a bit of an appetizer.
unborn timber
https://x.com/BraxBanksOKWX/status/1839043694437216354?t=XiUNfR2AlY0hEdo4VCgi1A&...
Storm surge potentially up to 20 FT
jagged niche
Hope everyone makes it through
unborn timber
btw here's all of the warnings that are already issued.
Most of FL, All of GA and SC under some level of warning.
jagged niche
godspeed, everyone
unborn timber
this is a model run for GA lmao
955mb is a pretty mid analog for a Cat 3 lmaooo this is so not happening.
hardy geyser
Oof! I'm about to get hammered.
I wonder which one of the trees in my yard are going to try to occupy my house.
mental lotus
Good luck Snap
hardy geyser
Good luck Snap
Thanks! I might need it.
jagged niche
I wonder which one of the trees in my yard are going to try to occupy my house.
Stay safe, aight?
hardy geyser
Hopefully, we will make it through the storm unscathed. I also have concerns about our office; there are giant trees next to it as well. If the power goes out, weāve got plenty of dry goods, canned goods, gallons of water, cat food, beer, wine, and most importantly books that need reading.
jagged niche
If youāre interested in urban exploration, for a book for you
hardy geyser
If it isn't already on our shelves, it might be too late.
jagged niche
If it isn't already on our shelves, it might be too late.
Yea, figured. Consider it as āsomething for the undetermined futureā
hardy geyser
Undetermined future describes my life lately. Keeping with the theme here, Access all areas should be revised to include "in all weather conditions".
jagged niche
Fair play, and glad you know of that book!
hardy geyser
Fair play, and glad you know of that book!
bet. I'm hip, kind of.
jagged niche
Worth a read since it delves into the mental state of people who willingly venture into (sometimes) abandoned structures
and it might as well be a fucking autobiography of my mental state too while exploring lol
hardy geyser
I know that we are getting a bit off topic, but my colleges and I have to explore urban places as a day job. Some times it's fun, but other times we get threatened by the local inhabitants and get run off.
hardy geyser
Thereās low pressure in the Midwest and high pressure along the eastern seaboard, steering Helene through the path of least resistance right over us.
Helene Helene Helene Heleeene. Iām begging of you please donāt take my house. Helene Helene Helene Heleeene. Please donāt take it just because you can.
Dolly Parton anyone?
jagged niche
Personally do not understand the reference but hope someone here does
hardy geyser
Personally do not understand the reference but hope someone here does
Look up Jolene.
jagged niche
It references a song... Ill listen to it
huh. Cool song! Now i better understand that reference
hardy geyser
Who would have ever predicted that Dolly would be mentioned here. Btw, I think she might be in the path of this as well.
unborn timber
unborn timber
Hurricane Helene officially marked as a Cat 3 hurricane as of now. (Classifying it as a major hurricane.)
Still has room to intensify.
unborn timber
Twitter
languid belfry
wowzers
leaden mountain
https://x.com/ou_sams/status/1839438191641919744?t=1O2D2FlmJev12T58sbb9zQ&s=19
That doesn't seem wise...
unborn timber
current flood forecast for Biltmore Village (S of Asheville, NC)
jagged niche
May i ask program is this?
unborn timber
May i ask program is this?
gauge photos from the site
iprobably the site you want
circle= Observed flood state (color indicates severity- Yellow-Orange-Red-Purple)
Square- max flood forecast (same scale)
...fuckin lmao- 30.5FT flood in the forecast at this spot in NC, personally- probably shouldn't happen.
unborn timber
Naples FL is the first station to record a locally major flood at 3.6FT
unborn timber
10:00 EST flood gaugue update-
3 recording local major floods (14 forecasted)
Naples, FL -3.97 FT [No previous record on file]
Alafia River (close to Tampa, FL)- 6.35FT (Forecasted- 7.90 FT)[Site Record of 6.60FT]
Peachtree Creek (NE of Atlanta, GA)- 18.06 FT [Site record of 18.60 FT]
hardy geyser
Luckily the center of this storm is coming ashore where itās mostly wildlife management areas and state park lands. The population density is low right on the coastline here. As it moves inland, thatās a different story.
Here's a live stream from some guys sitting in a Toyota RAV4 on Cedar Key. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pxTqQss2dvc&ab_channel=WXChasing
unborn timber
Looks like the one NE of Atlanta is finally starting to crest out at 18.25 FT
hardy geyser
It's been raining where I live in GA almost nonstop for the past 36 hrs.
unborn timber
All of GA's current flood gauges (I have OBS/ Forecast "No flood" and other error codes turned off to make the map less cluttered.)
unborn timber
11:10 EST flood update (a lil late, sorry)
5 stations recording a major flood (14 forecasted)
(Not counting 2 in ND that are in "Major flood" at 0.3 ft.)
FORMAT: Station[MAJOR:FT requirement]- Observed reading [Previous Record] Climbing/Crested/Decreasing
Naples, FL[M:3.5 FT]- 4.02FT [No record on file] Crested
Alafia River (E Tampa FL)[M:5.7FT]- 8.24 FT [6.6 FT] Climbing
Clearwater Beach FL[M:6.0FT]- 6.62 FT [4.0 FT] Crested?
Cedar Key FL[M6.2FT]- 7.60 FT [6.8 FT] Climbing
**Peachtree Creek **(NE Atlanta GA)[M:17.0FT]- 18.42 FT [18.6 FT] Crested
*Updated to include FT required to meet "Major" flood requirement per station.
i quite like this format tbh
Each category's description
ignore the heights tagged here- specific to this station,
hardy geyser
Quitman and Valdosta are going to have a rough time. Thomasville too.
unborn timber
..wha..
hardy geyser
This live stream is kind of stressful. š¬ #1204206076493434930 message
unborn timber
..wha..
Went from -1.31 FT to a 9.63 FT flood in 1 hour.
real rapid flooding.
12:20 flood station update- 10 marked as observing a major flood, 15 forecasted to.
7 of those OBS's are in FL
2 in Atlanta, GA.
1 in NC
hardy geyser
My yard is 100 percent flooded.
unborn timber
Station[MAJOR:heightrequirement]- Observed reading, [Previous Record] Climbing/Crested/Decreasing
All readings will be in FT.
Fort Myers, FL [5.0]- 5.07, [7.3], Crested(?)
ST Petersburg, FL [6.0]-6.20, [N/A], Rising
Old Port Tampa, FL [6.0]- 6.63, [N/A], Rising
Alafia River (Riverview, FL)[5.7]- 8.98, [6.6] Crested(?)
Cedar Key, FL[6.2]-8.65, [6.8], Rising(? Might be near crest)
Steinhatchee, FL[6.0]- 9.63 [8.0], RISING
Peachtree Creek, Atlanta, GA [20.0]- 20.06 [25.8] Rising
Peachtree Creek, Atlanta GA 2 [17.0]- 17.74 [18.6] Decreasing
Nancy Creek, Atlanta GA [13.0]- 13.19 [15.5] Rising (near crest.)
Wilson Creek, Collettsville NC [12]- 13.20 [N/A] Rising
take the second number minus the first [number] to get the "excess flooding past scale" per site.
unborn timber
Twitter
unborn timber
Twitter
unborn timber
Power's out here
And also new life goal, gonna sleep in every natural disaster atleast once.
So far I have slept through
Tornado zero meter (2018) wildfires (multiple times) earthquake (M.2.7, 2021)
On the porch atm,
jagged niche
Stay safe m8
unborn timber
My setup is sooo fuckin jank lmao
jagged niche
How jank?
unborn timber
Two lawn chairs, bungee cords, a freezer, and some cardboard jank
Freezer is my anchor in case it gets insanely bad lol
jagged niche
jagged niche
Freezer is my anchor in case it gets insanely bad lol
Any wind?
unborn timber
Like 10-15 MPH gusts so far, center is still over TN
unborn timber
eep went great- only slightly damp
unfortunately power came back on (turned on the lamp over my head) and I had to go back inside and continue working š
(See attached for sleeping setup- Bungee cord was added post image when I realized that cardboard doesn't want to stay there.)
unborn timber
A good chunk of the Appalachians are currently flooding
Some to record amounts
Also hey don't shaking eye react me I've done much worse š
so i was gonna do the ol flooding format... there's 32 of them š
i'll pass along the "highlights"
eaten by the filter- refer to https://water.noaa.gov/
jagged niche
eep went great- only slightly damp
unfortunately power came back on (turned on t...
Glad to know that you and those you hold close are alright for th emost part
unborn timber
btw all of the graphics for Hurricane Helene for it's entire life if you wanna see the warning evolution
Twitter
jagged niche
well damn
unborn timber
languid belfry
holy smokes yeah
at first I thought "No no that's not it, you're looking for a two-lane highway going both dir... oh man!"
unborn timber
reasoned that the road was an S turn curve* hugging the river- mountain's on the right, so that narrowed stuff down pretty quickly, then was looking for the matching mountain backdrop+ the rock fence
27 minute geolocation š«”
jagged niche
at first I thought "No no that's not it, you're looking for a two-lane highway g...
Thought the same too at first. Erosion is WILD to witness
unborn timber
https://fxtwitter.com/Acedog112/status/1839751928584253475
lol, lmao even- what the fuck is being circled on half of these
(Also argued on my verification post that "nuh uh it's AI" when i... provided the exact area the photo was taken from)
jagged niche
wtf is bro on about?
languid belfry
Rule #1 of X is ignore eveyone else on X
leaden mountain
I went to have a look and they'd deleted most of it. š
unborn timber
This is likely either Newport [ https://water.noaa.gov/gauges/NEPT1 ] or Embreeville TN [https://water.noaa.gov/gauges/EMBT1 ].
Leaning towards the Embreeville area. Went from minor flood (10.01ft) at 6:15 to the gauge going offline (likely overtaken by water at 19.56 ft) at 11:15
(Found some sources saying Elizabethtown, TN [https://water.noaa.gov/gauges/EZBT1 ]- which is a fair bit NE of Embreeville)
Also yes each time scale is different here because there is no consistency between gauges it is irritating
unborn timber
I went to have a look and they'd deleted most of it. š
trust me it was dumb all the way down.
This will unfortunately likely be a very high death toll for a lot of these communities along the mountains.
Seen it before year after year.
https://fxtwitter.com/forecaster25/status/1839781822147817885
Chimney Rock, NC.
jagged niche
When youāre in a path of a hurricane, wtf can you realistically do except for āGTFO or hunker hardā?
unborn timber
unborn timber
unborn timber
... there's a lot of bodies in the valleys.
A lot of missing person's posts in these areas too, this death toll will rise. (Currently at 49)
jagged niche
And as always, if (youāre) sensitive to this, do not look for any potential images
unborn timber
Twitter
^just for NC.
It is still raining in the area occasionally- Some of the rivers are still flooded.
unborn timber
And as always, if (youāre) sensitive to this, do not look for any potential imag...
Geolocating the images sent just before people died is the biggest heartbreak.
tamer area in TN
unborn timber
context of the water's power. Gun safe washed down river.
Geolocated to around ( 35Ā°26'24.80"N, 82Ā°14'58.27"W)
look at all of that silt that got moved up here
jagged niche
Weather is a scary thing, and to NEVER be underestimated
unborn timber
A lot of missing person's posts in these areas too, this death toll will rise. (...
censored to not even risk breaking Discord TOS- but this is the gist with a lot of the missing persons posts
i'm currently at 57 recorded across FL, GA, SC, NC, TN. First news reports of 100 unnacounted for in GA alone.
A lot of these people are hopefully safe, just stranded in an insanely rural area- the Appalachians are not the nicest sometimes, so it is vital to get a tally on how many are missing, and where they were last seen going
Death toll has increased to 50 people so far.
https://www.cnn.com/2024/09/28/weather/hurricane-helene-florida-georgia-carolinas/index.html
unborn timber
https://x.com/wxbrad/status/1839731792904896750
Twitter
Higher quality version of the same area.
jagged niche
https://x.com/NCDOT/status/1840092022717157657/photo/1
So much for that one person claiming AI
unborn timber
So much for that one person claiming AI
may have DM'ed them another verification post using the higher qual version š š
jagged niche
āUwU may I have some more pics please?ā lol
Smart move on your end
unborn timber
^Just one area.
There's one road in and out of Asheville that's not washed out (that I can find proof of.). If they were fully stranded (air only rescue) you'd be looking at Katrina x 10.
unborn timber
# of missing person's suddenly started decreasing- did some digging, found this.
I am however personally able to confirm atleast 4 fatalities in North Carolina (Next of kin posts.)- potentially a 5th* in Chimney Rock. There are no official numbers for the state yet.
*Additional update to add an additional fatality.
It looks like there may be a tarp or something over the front of the car, which is why i'm leaning towards this being a fatality. Absolutely wild how these mountains funnel the water into insanely violent currents. Image is from https://www.facebook.com/share/p/zhYbKPTsXE6v1ax4/
DISTANCE SHOT OF A CRUSHED CAR- POSSIBLE BODY WITHIN CAR.
unborn timber
Likely a mix of double counting missing persons (due to there being multiple forms/ phone numbers to report missing persons) and people who are safe, and are just now getting (very limited) cell service. Hopefully their phones aren't waterlogged or otherwise dead.
unborn timber
unborn timber
Image #1 (35Ā°34'18.00"N, 82Ā°31'52.00"W)
Image #2 ( 35Ā°34'7.83"N, 82Ā°32'39.74"W)
Image #3(35Ā°34'9.00"N, 82Ā°33'42.00"W)
Image #4 (35Ā°33'57.00"N, 82Ā°32'30.00"W
unborn timber
Seems like youāre up 24/7, chillin in here š
i just woke up ā,
I also run "weather channels" in a couple of other discords so a lot of info is "categorized" per group's interest-
This one gets more "geolocation"-type posts because I feel like y'all would like it more
jagged niche
i just woke up ā,
I also run "weather channels" in a couple of other discords s...
Certainly not gonna complain about geolocation!
jagged niche
Hell, we like it when people talk about nerd shit. The passion they have is infectious
unborn timber
Not a good day when one of these videos goes viral.
Live Storms Media is the place chasers send their footage in to license it so news orgs can buy it.
Media aggregator.
boreal phoenix
unborn timber
Still closed, wont be open til 2025.
hardy geyser
Still closed, wont be open til 2025.
Both 40 and 26?
unborn timber
The 40 for sure,
Not sure on the current timeline for the 26
For context of how vital these roads are in this area- here's the detour route
visual birch
A huge amount of imagery of the damage from Helene is available here: https://hddsexplorer.usgs.gov/
If anyone is aware of frame images (not ortho-corrected) of Western North Carolina or Eastern Tennessee please let me know, I'd love to try processing them into 3D models.
jagged niche
If anyone is aware of frame images (not ortho-corrected) of Western North Caroli...
How does that even work? Turning 2D images into 3D
visual birch
How does that even work? Turning 2D images into 3D
It's a process called photogrammetry - essentially using a lot of math computers can match features in one image to the same features in other images which can then be used to estimate where the photo was taken from in 3D space. By then estimating depth from the parallax shift between the different photos it's possible to approximate a 3D object from a series of 2D images. Here's a pretty good overview of how it works and it's applications: https://www.artec3d.com/learning-center/what-is-photogrammetry
unborn timber
we may have found it
ironically- at this point that I was the most confident in- but not confident at all about it
Further review by another user noted signs that another set of powerlines may have been in the area as seen in 2008 street view, the surrounding terrain matched rough enough, and nearby buildings resemble the blurry mess seen in the backdrop of the other images.
We're still not 100% on it- but we're quickly approaching 50-60% (for scale)
unborn timber
Still hearing horrible reports out of NC/SC, "there's not a lot of 'rescuing" going on- you either survived it, and might be slightly stuck, or you didn't, and we're finding you in trees."- Slight paraphrase from https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XYnVbBXuPfU as he's sort of "live talking" to camera and sorta wonders from topic to topic
unborn timber
unborn timber
This is technically Hurricane John, which landfalled in Mexico twice (Once as Cat 3, once as Cat 1 when it poked back in the ocean for a bit)
This will be the 3rd time this system will landfall, and it's forecasted to landfall as a major in FL
unborn timber
This will be the 3rd time this system will landfall, and it's forecasted to land...
I have just been told that this will technically be landfall #4 for John/Milton, in order it went Cat 3, Cat 1, TD, now will be Cat 3+ (forecasted)
unborn timber
Interview starts at (36Ā° 0'29.64"N, 82Ā°14'46.37"W)
Walks south, and looks across the river.
jagged niche
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ag-hb45J6MQ
Really feel bad for the lady. Wonāt be shocked if PTSD kicks in for her. Really hope thereās help for not only her, but for everyone in the area that got hit
The one good thing, if i can even call it that about this, is reminding all of us that we are humans who just wanna help out other humans in shitty situations. When humans help humans, we as a collective are not yet lost
jagged niche
jagged niche
Milton's likely Cat 5 already,
How do you know that feom this flight data?
jagged niche
https://fxtwitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1843316421314662751?s=46
Not understsnding this graph...?
jagged niche
But at the ssme time, dang it, really feel for those who are forced to stay
jagged niche
+ wind vectors per recording
Ohhhhh
unborn timber
Also this was just indicative that they successfully got into it- massive change of ground speed
unborn timber
Upgraded to Catagory 5 officially.
The NHC is watching 3 systems (2 of which are not expected to make landfall) in the Atlantic
*Not expected to landfall as a hurricane
Kirk is still being funky.
jagged niche
Yea, was under 24 hours between tropical storm and cat 5
unborn timber
...oof.
At peak they might have recorded 200+ MPH, very scuffed data at the end there.
Certainly 160 MPH.
^Important clarification, 200 MPH would have likely been a gust, and not sustained, also would be estimated derived from winds recorded at flight level.
jagged niche
200mph gusts is definitely no fun
unborn timber
jagged niche
Traffic as per Google and Waze
limber mesa
Yeah it literally accelerated after I posted
unborn timber
bottom note-
"Observed flocks of birds within eye"
-They're going to be stuck there until landfall (or potentially after Milton leaves FL)
NOAA49 on it's way, will have a 2nd set of recon passes soon (ish.)
alright a pack of these models want to fight.
jagged niche
what is UKTI doing...?
unborn timber
what is UKTI doing...?
it's just being dumb- looks like it landfalls as a major and then increases in strength over land, which is... lmao not happening.
unborn timber
sub 900mb.
jagged niche
well the nhc site went down- likely accidently DDOS'ed
With a storm like this, AND Helena basically disappearing cities in the Appalachian mountain range? Who wouldnt be nervously checking the sites
unborn timber
898mb š®
Hurricane Milton will be one of the 6 hurricanes to reach a sub 900 mb pressure in the Atlantic.
In recorded history.
Sub 900mb and they missed a direct pass
jagged niche
If they got a sub-900 while missing the eye, then the actual readings will be significantly scarier
as if they are not scary ALREADY
or are they gonna pull a 180 and just full send...?
unborn timber
Twitter
the eyewall is fucking miniscule atm.
shrunk tenfold in the past few hours-
editor's note-
small things go BRRRR with the same energy
jagged niche
https://x.com/USAWX2022/status/1843419759179936251
they said what i just said! the yee has to have even lower pressures
unborn timber
The smaller it is- the more terrifying it is personally.
jagged niche
something something "figure skater moving arms in while spinning"
unborn timber
jagged niche
holy shit a sub 900
leaden mountain
holy shit a sub 900
hPa?
unborn timber
bumpy flight
From 10k to 11.2k to 9.2k in about 5 minutes.
Transponder just turned off/ lost coverage of it
jagged niche
Well, those madmen(and ladies) flirt with hurricanes in a aircraft. Im just happy they made it out
or at least not dead so far
unborn timber
Twitter
Drops #3 and #4
Note the coordinates in the top left.
#3 had 161 kts (185 MPH) at surface
#4 had 24 kts (27 MPH) at surface.
are they not going for another pass?
Might have been damaged/ spooked by that first swing.
(Usually they do several)
2nd attempt coming through.
No matter how far you zoom in or out- areas of rotation act the same
Left is hurricane Milton,
Right is a supercell over AL.
jagged niche
Well, those madmen(and ladies) flirt with hurricanes in a aircraft. Im just happ...
Knew they would pull a 180
unborn timber
Knew they would pull a 180
Recent drop has 185 MPH ā
It'll likely be upgraded again
uh oh
they've got 3 recons on this.
jagged niche
they've got 3 recons on this.
So this is particularly interesting to the meteorology community
jagged niche
Heard about that in Project Owl too
unborn timber
Further strengthening is possible.
Atlantic record is 190 MPH sustained š¬
we're at 185 MPH
Milton updated to 897mb w/ 185 MPH sustained.
jagged niche
TLDR: Florida is FUCKED fucked
unborn timber
TLDR: Florida is ***FUCKED*** fucked
It'll likely weaken before landfall in FL
storm surge is the main concern
Specifically Tampa-
If the damn thing moves north- Tampa's fucked.
if it moves south- Tampa's not as fucked
jagged niche
May seem a tad cruel, but I hope the hurricane wonāt be as bad when it lands
Make things more manageable for those who canāt evacuate
unborn timber
Best case on current forcast is a 10ft surge for Tampa.
if this strays a bit more north- I wouldn't be surprised to see that jump to 15-20 ft
If it strays way south towards like Charlotte Harbor- you'll get more of a "draw' than a "force" (Winds for Tampa would be going SW- Drawing water out overall.)
mental lotus
unborn timber
i would like for these models to not split their forecasts between landfalling in FL as anything between Cat 3 and Cat 5.
We don't talk about UKX2,
UKX2 is just being stupid still.
Twitter
Also- the flood walls they put up at typically 9 feet tall.
At current forecast- best case scenatio is 10 ft of storm surge.
vague crystal
Any news from the Yucatan?
Seems Mexico is getting hit bad and Florida might be off the menu.
grave stream
@unborn timber Thanks for all this, it's very interesting, and free of social media hot takes, which is always appreciated.
unborn timber
For a sorta similar field- we hang out at the wx tag on twitter,
or "STATEABBREVIATION'+wx for specific areas
(eg- TNwx for Tennessee, ALwx for Alabama, UKwx for the United Kingdom, there's probably a few I don't know about)
vague crystal
This looks awful for Mexico
unborn timber
Any news from the Yucatan?
Seems Mexico is getting hit bad and Florida might be...
From what I can tell it didn't quite make landfall- area had hurricane force winds and flooding- but escaped an absolutely catastrophic situation
If this had been a bit SW (still in the ocean)- the damage would have possibly been historic, as a sub 900 mb landfall is practically unheard of for the Atlantic.
also- glad to report that people are taking evacuation orders seriously for FL,
Twitter
(6 hours ago)
unborn timber
Twitter
"This hurricane is nearing the mathematical limit of what Earth's atmosphere over this ocean water can produce."
Theorized max for this area rn is around 190-195 MPH sustained if I remember right? I'll have to dig up the study (probably from the 90's..)
jagged niche
"This hurricane is nearing the mathematical limit of what Earth's atmosphere over this ocean water can produce."
Probably the spookiest quote I heard thatās weather related
unborn timber
I mean as long as it stays over the ocean at peak (which it seems to be doing- should weaken as it approaches FL...)- absolutely fascinating to me
this is the hypothetical example whenever you start learning about this- and it's infront of us not in the 1980's, not in 2005- but now 2024. When we have amazing open source satellites, open source radar stations, and recon data (again open source) pinging in and out of it nonstop.
This will be a triumph for meteorological studies for decades to come.
jagged niche
Not shocked that meteorologists will be reading up on it for a while after this hurricane lands
Not everyday a hurricane drops below 900
jagged niche
this is *the hypothetical* example whenever you start learning about this- and i...
Also really happy that thereās satellites that 24/7 ping out data for all to look at
unborn timber
Yup! for the entire USA aswell! (Updates every 15 minutes- you're not going to get an "up close" scan from this ever)
https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/goes/
jagged niche
Every 15 mins is close enough to live weather data for me lol
unborn timber
If you want live doppler radar- there's a few sources for that too- as that's also open source.
https://radar.weather.gov/
Free- not that great UI experience, you can get archives but it's a hassle
Radarscope- $8, there are subscriptions within- good UI personally, can pull archives going back to 1980 quite easily (they did the hassle for me.)
slightly outdated map- but if it starts raining anywhere in those blobs- we can see it- updates 3-15 minute incriments depending on how strained the operators put the dish at-
Average is like 8 minutes.
I often joke that if we ever get nuked- weather nerds will be one of the first groups of civilians to report it.
(That and earthquake nerds- which I am slowly being absorbed into- a lot of seismic stations are also open source- look into GlobalQuake- I have a personal server running w/ it.)
jagged niche
Why are all the stations on the east half all round while west is just ālol noā
unborn timber
Why are all the stations on the east half all round while west is just ālol noā
not as chaotic w/ weather (partially thanks to the Rockies)
jagged niche
Ohhh
unborn timber
notable radar holes in the area-
If you can see white it's real bad,
blue- pretty damn bad
Orange- Start of the "losing confidence" range
radars are expensive as shit to put up, maintain, and also to put a NWS office behind-
Each one of these stations is part of it's own jurisdiction in terms of the NWS
jagged niche
May I ask how expensive?
unborn timber
like look at this- if you wanna report in a tornado tag/ call the right office
I myself am under Jackson, KY's jurisdiction (JKL), Part of the Appalachians- fewer tornados per year here.
but the more known variant is Jackson, MS- as that's a section of Dixie Alley (JAN)
if you're storm chasing in MS and fuck up your code/ twitter message- you may send info to the wrong office entirely
jagged niche
Canāt you just āget thereās some weather at (Denver)ā and let the offices figure it out from there?
unborn timber
yeah that is usually how it works lol
jagged niche
Ok cool! Glad to know that tactic works well
unborn timber
btw- each weather station has a dedicated twitter page, Facebook page, Youtube* (some dont), etc.
jagged niche
Oh sweet! Not shocked though
unborn timber
So if you're in the USA- I recommend following your local NWS station on twitter- as they're going to alert you to shit going on quite close to you (And the more ways to get an alert the better in terms of severe weather events- also just nice to keep updated.)
also- if you're fully invested- gonna slide over this talk given by Tim Marshall in 2021 (800 views š )
https://youtu.be/yPtBuEEgPDo?si=5_g1vBIOtadnwPuU
It's a good one I promise! He's working on the updated EF scale too- and lets a few things slip about that during this.
200MPH EF5 however is wild- scale currently has 201+ being EF5, 200 would be EF4, but he frequently refers to 200 MPH being EF5... would have a new EF5 awarded posthumorously to probably a few tornados post 2013...
jagged niche
Yea, am located in the States š
unborn timber
Yup! for the entire USA aswell! (Updates every 15 minutes- you're not going to g...
Back on Milton coverage since I went on a massive tangent there (sorry!)
Here's the specific page for tracking Milton- will take a second to load as these are surprisingly high detail images per update
https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/goes/floater.php?stormid=AL142024#navLink
jagged niche
this is the weather thread lol. As long as its weather related, im chillin
vague crystal
Sadly itĀ“s gaining wind speed.
Up to 129 km/h now outside the coast of Mexico
Using this to track the wind speeds
unborn timber
Twitter
mental lotus
Twitter
devout stump
mental lotus
I wanted to take a moment to say I appreciate how you all are talking about this storm. Other areas of social media are very, "Florida is fuuuuuucked" and "I wonder what will fall down" and on and on. Which is, uh, quite a vibe for people in this community in the path of the storm.
I also have to say that I appreciate not seeing any "the people who don't evacuate are stupid" or similar takes. If you've not tried to evacuate for a hurricane you don't know about the jam-packed highways where it takes hours to go a half mile, or gas stations that have run out of gas, the endless logistics. If you're unfamiliar with that experience and interested, let me know and I'll get some information for you.
Proud of this community as always!
unborn timber
White House launching Reddit account with updates on hurricane response, preparedness
unborn timber
I wanted to take a moment to say I appreciate how you all are talking about this...
I'm bogged down enough getting data in- i rarely have time to make dumb takes lol
Also if tomorrow acts like forecasted- could have a bit of a tornado flurry in southern FL- if so yay more work š
also will say- if this storm holds forecast/ strays slightly north-
Tampa is fuuuuuucked (scientific term.)
if it strays south of the inlet- Tampa's probably banged up a little but aight (Port Charlotte however could get fucked instead- again, scientific term.)
Right now the "highest probabilities of eye landfall" are barely south of the inlet- but notably still has the potential to stray as far North as Homosassa Springs
Reminder- damage will extend further than the cone- cone is trying to predict where the center will be.
one last note in the flurry of messages (probably)
a couple of gauges are predicting records already (circle is observed, square is predicted)
unborn timber
Also- Milton weakened overnight (as expected)- but earlier this morning intensified back into CAT5 territory- waiting on the next recon pass to see where it's at now.
Last pass (2 hours ago) was at like 920 mb, if this hurricane goes sub 900 twice in it's life- it'd be a first, a very dumb first.
jagged niche
I wanted to take a moment to say I appreciate how you all are talking about this...
This is also thanks to you blue and green names for keeping an eye on things and making sure the "dumb takes" people are managed. Storms like this can easily bring out emotional responses, especially if theres people you hold close in the area
Really hope that everyone stays safe, and emergency responces come quick
unborn timber
Twitter
limber mesa
I wanted to take a moment to say I appreciate how you all are talking about this...
I've been in and out of this channel, but watching elsewhere
I do my best to steer clear of "opinions" and just focus on watching the storm happen, and hope as many can get out as they can. I'm a midwesterner, and despite the "puts out lawnchair" attitude we portray, we really hate people getting hurt.
jagged niche
I've been in and out of this channel, but watching elsewhere
I do my best to ste...
Should be the standard. We as humans are stuck on this rock together, least we can do is help someone out
limber mesa
I do not want there to be people stuck there, and I recognize the ones that are, are by and large just stuck
jagged niche
Some people are forced to be there, such as first responders, poor, disabled, so on. It SUCKS seeing people there, especially after the news and info that this hurricane will be messed up
limber mesa
mhm
anyway it's calmed down here after tornado season, the news is that the fire danger is very high
prairie desert hours
jagged niche
Canāt catch a damn break with weatherā¦ apparently France is gonna get broadsided with a cyclone too???
limber mesa
Gonzo releasing dropsondes into the storm
https://vxtwitter.com/NOAA_HurrHunter/status/1843827946328633769
jagged niche
Canāt wait for the data from that
limber mesa
Canāt catch a damn break with weatherā¦ apparently France is gonna get broadsided...
post-cyclone Kirk yeah
Hurricane Leslie looks like it's spinning out in the middle of the Atlantic
mental lotus
I've been in and out of this channel, but watching elsewhere
I do my best to ste...
As a fellow stand on the porch, tell someone it smells like rain, observe thunderstorm Midwesterner, I've seen tropical storms/Cat 1s be cause for a "hurricane party" in New Orleans where everyone hunkers down together and fills coolers and helps each other and it's sort of like a camping party.
But it's all serious business for the bigger ones
unborn timber
Reminder that Nadocast is good- tends to act wonky w/ tropical cyclones. Think of this as "worst case scenario" forecasting for this.\
but yeah- there is likely a tornado threat for a good chunk of Florida across the 9th.
Personally- i'd put it at 5-10% (Maybe a tiny area of 15%? Uncertain.) , one or two could be strong.
A minor selection (Like 4 out of 9 typically used) of different model runs for the same point of time.
All of these show a pretty notable chance of a tornado outbreak just prior to landfall.
Also HAZCAST threw a 18% for 1hr max tomorrow
Still testing to see how reliable that is w/ tropical setups- newer and much more "guarded" AI model there.
But overall- rough AI model agreement, human forecast currently is a bog-standard 5% for the area- will have to see if it gets updated in 3 hours. (Also- recent model runs are leaning towards 10% minimum for a small area in my opinion. Sorta in between human and AI.)
hardy geyser
Weāre going to do fieldwork in Peach County, GA tomorrow. Fingers crossed that we wonāt get rained out. I think we will be out of the range of the bands. What do you think @unborn timber .
unborn timber
Weāre going to do fieldwork in Peach County, GA tomorrow. Fingers crossed that w...
You're likely goin to be rained on- lemme check the excessive rain forecast.
Most of GA shouuuld be aight
hardy geyser
Most of GA *shouuuld* be aight
Thanks friend! If it was up to me, you would be financially compensated as a weather consultant to our firm. Keep doing what you do. We love you!
jagged niche
Acedog is clutching hard as this servers westherperson
hardy geyser
Agreed!
unborn timber
Thanks friend! If it was up to me, you would be financially compensated as a wea...
ironically would be the 3rd company to say that
one of them was a roofing company-Afterwards I sorta keyed into the fact that they were looking for work and wasn't quite happy š
(Hopefully they offered fair rates to those who lost their roof)
jagged niche
Agreed!
At this rate, I consider whatever Acedog says about weather to be legit, even if bro doesnāt provide sources 
unborn timber
i provided the excessive rainfall outlook :C
Milton is back to 185 MPH sustained winds :L
A different drop shows Milton is back to 910 mb
(Still has only gone sub 900 once, but it keeps chipping it down)
unborn timber
But overall- rough AI model agreement, human forecast currently is a bog-standar...
Welp they added the 10#
limber mesa
Officials say Milton, currently under category five status, could be the worst storm to hit the area in about a century - with a surge of 10-15ft (3-4.5m) possible, and localised rainfall of up to 1.5ft.
six inches of rain inundates us here in Nebraska, I can't imagine one and a half feet
jagged niche
Godspeed to those brave lunatics who see what is effectively a cylinder of wind and water and instantly think ācowabunga it isā and jump in an airplane
limber mesa
to be fair, they're in one of the best planes for it
it's hard to break those old P-3s
jagged niche
to be fair, they're in one of the best planes for it
They still go ācowabunga it isā and full send into the cylinder of wind and water
limber mesa
Oh yeah, just saying the airframe helps
jagged niche
Not denying that!
unborn timber
unborn timber
Likely a violent tornado ongoing in FL
Likely just had 3 strong if not violent tornados occur at the same time
leaden mountain
What area (roughly) are we talking?
unborn timber
What area (roughly) are we talking?
Very strong tornado heading towards Yeehaw Junction, FL
#1 is showing reflectivity+ Velocity,
Images #2 and #3 show reflectivity+ CC, that pocket of lowered values is indacative of debris in the air (especially when alligned w/ previously mentioned ref+vel values.)
Reports of vehicles overturned near Port Saint Lucie, likely tornadic damage.
unborn timber
Very strong tornado heading towards Yeehaw Junction, FL
Cycled- new mesocyclone location is a bit NE
Already tornadic- Yeehaw Junction likely got spared from a massive hit.
sick stump
Well that's unfortunate. NOAA's water level monitoring buoys seem to be down. The website part of it, presumably.
unborn timber
Twitter
unborn timber
Cycled- new mesocyclone location is a bit NE
thank fuck it cycled š
That's likely another strong tornado just north of the area.
New tornado probably starting up just NW of Port Saint Lucie
unborn timber
New tornado probably starting up just NW of Port Saint Lucie
just an update- yeah- tornado active here.
Sneaky fucker- in a radar hole.
Likely active, tracking over previous tornado damage-
this fucking storm N of Yeehaw Junction keeps producing pairs of tornados at a time (This is like tornado #6 or #7 from it.)
This cell extremely dangerous in my opinion
This one's also heading for Port Saint Lucie..
Central FL update- This cell's probably produced another violent
Twitter
Mereologically- pretty nuts,
Logistically- fuuckin stop storm before you get over populated areas
Observed tagged warning going into Port Saint Lucie now- Unsure if there's a tornado on it still- radar might not be having a fun time w/ the area though.
jagged niche
No one in Florida is having any damn fun for the past month
unborn timber
I'm going to be out for the next few hours- Ryan's typically up there w/ resources for live weather watchin
Twitter
also yeah- anticyclonic tornado from a TC supercell šµāš«
limber mesa
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d-V_YnmER0Y
'preciate it, I'm in there now
new warning just dropped
unborn timber
This is PTDS- which is effectively sorting through CC+ REF and detecting what it believes to be a debris ball
This one is confirmed and is used to help note where this tornado tracked.
limber mesa
storm surge is chewing on the shore now
grim salmon
storm surge is chewing on the shore now
What channel is that from?
limber mesa
limber mesa
CW: disorientation
https://vxtwitter.com/NOAA_AOML/status/1844115360997654917
unborn timber
Looks like Milton will landfall juuust south of the inlet to Tampa- storm surge should not be as bad
(Should mainly draw water out with W/SW winds)
limber mesa
MesoVort #5 in Port Charlotte is giving the most impressive storm surge footage
slow jasper
Birdfall?
slow jasper
Oh shit, i assume dead?
leaden mountain
Oh shit, i assume dead?
Not as long as there's a blue signal. https://vxtwitter.com/matthewcappucci/status/1844137957181317212
limber mesa
Not as long as there's a blue signal. https://vxtwitter.com/matthewcappucci/stat...
yeah they're sea birds, they'll by and large be ok
just very confused
welcome to the new intersection of 22nd and Manatee
limber mesa
Milton made landfall at Category 3
leaden mountain
Looking grim in Nottingham. š
https://vxtwitter.com/simonoking/status/1844247582220091844
marsh aspen
Looking grim in Nottingham. š
https://vxtwitter.com/simonoking/status/184424758...
Across the UK apparently.
leaden mountain
Across the UK apparently.
Yeah, this happened to be the first I saw. Funny that daytime temperature isn't affected.
marsh aspen
Yeah, this happened to be the first I saw. Funny that daytime temperature isn't ...
Strange indeed. Must be the government 
!
limber mesa
current outages in Florida post-Milton https://poweroutage.us/area/state/florida
almost 3.4 million
slow jasper
Do geomagnetic storms count as weather?
unborn timber
"reverse engineering" tornado probs using tornado reports then creating a graphic afterwards-
This would be the "theoretical perfect" NWS forecast that would have been issued, which as you can tell- is a bit absurd in this one
Very close view of one of the tornados yesterday
Twitter
Course- one of the more wild instances of wind driven projectiles lately.
unborn timber
Twitter
limber mesa
My local power district is sending their mutual aid team down to Florida to help restore power https://oppdthewire.com/oppd-mutual-aid-crews-facing-tough-conditions
unborn timber
the DAT currently has a 0.32 mile long EF3 marked
small scarab
As it were, I'm around ground zero. Thought I'd pop back in for a bit since I'm going to assume no one else is able to get to where I physically can. So...please let me know how I can assist.
unborn timber
Photos from a friend in MN
unborn timber
I saw them here in SE Kentucky,
...barely.
30 second exposure vs a 65 second exposure
^ The last event was much better for me- 15 second exposure.
(No actually this has to be like 5 seconds max because it's handheld. I'm not that steady.)
btw theres a Space Weather Prediction Center that tracks this
limber mesa
when I say I have an interest in weather, I mean all weather lol
unborn timber
The only reason why the USA didn't see 100+ tornados from Milton is because the FL peninsula is skinny.
limber mesa
ooh you can see the spin off the hurricane
unborn timber
unborn timber
Also don't worry about the location tags- they're optional for the storm chasing group i'm in- "Closest 'big town' to you" for reporting weather events without having to say exactly where you are every damn time.
Probably bad opsec- but good for us logistically for reporting shit (such as flooding)
limber mesa
I use the closest weather station
unborn timber
Oh that is not a good idea for some of us on the border of 2 (+)
unborn timber
Like i'm under NWS Jackson, but I use NWS Memphis's radar more often (Because I tend to chase more south of where I live.)
also we voluntarily put GPS trackers on our phones while we go chasing- usually with the whole "name/alias", "phone number", "email" layout so that's probably asking for trouble... Especially w/ all of that being open to the public.
That's a chaser standard btw- Spotter Dots via Spotter Network.
limber mesa
I'm more of a "watcher" than a "chaser" tbf :P
limber mesa
Wooo we finally get one unit of fall https://x.com/NWSOmaha/status/1844854547312988285
Twitter
unborn timber
i hate the cold, it's rough and corse and irritating and it gets everywhere
limber mesa
I like being warm in cold places
limber mesa
jesus
jagged niche
Bloody hell
slow jasper
Super full moon tonight
unborn timber
unborn timber
limber mesa
huh, that is tiny on the scale of hurricanes
unborn timber
Convection Outlooks may look different sometime in 2025
What it'd look like on a typical graphic-
unborn timber
i'm currently at 57 recorded across FL, GA, SC, NC, TN. First news reports of 10...
One month later update on my personal tally (Scoured Facebook for missing persons posts) using these reports.
15 missing were found deceased
38 missing were found/ reported as alive
2 still missing (1 presumed deceased atm)
1 was identified as a dupe submission (error on my end.)
1- Unknown (Post was deleted, cannot find any level of update- presumed found alive.
From what I can gather there are still 20-25 people still missing from the effects of Hurricane Helene, mostly in NC.
unborn timber
Twitter
limber mesa
meanwhile in Nebraska, Normal October continues
vast dune
In Spanish, but this is a good rundown on the particular type of supercell (there have been tornado warnings in the area yesterday and today in Barcelona) that led to the deadly floods in Valencia https://www.newtral.es/dana-valencia-mediterraneo-caliente/20241030/
Also going through how climate change impacted this event and made it more extreme than other similar cold drops
unborn timber
Well they expanded the tornado risk to include OKC in the SIG TOR parameters.
limber mesa
it's damp here in Nebraska, but at least the fire danger is gone for now š¬
unborn timber
First tornado warning of the OK/KS event day- In Iowa, never change weather, never change.
limber mesa
lmao
jagged niche
Had some drizzle over here which is a very nice change of pace
unborn timber
2nd warning is in KS- but about to leave the state.
again- never change weather, never change.
New watch for Tulsa OK has 70/40 odds š
Gonna fuckin laugh if this current line kicks up as it leaves KS into MO
Cause there's straggler cells ahead of the line up there near Kansas City, and that's prolly the biggest concern (once they get fully goin in like an hour or two.. or three... or never)
unborn timber
tropic leaf
unborn timber
unborn timber
Twitter
unborn timber
Probably had three tornados yesterday, 1 was in Iowa, 2 in Oklahoma.
vast dune
Cross-posting this from #eu-uk: A water sprout/tornado has affected the municipality of Isla Cristina, Huelva (Spain) https://fixvx.com/Meteohuelva/status/1852020403297812910
tropic leaf
limber mesa
satellite image of the flooding in Valencia
unborn timber
vast dune
We've been covering more of it at #eu-uk
unborn timber
unborn timber
unborn timber
this video is geolocatable
https://fxtwitter.com/ReedTimmerUSA/status/1852821987061882923
Geolocated to || 32Ā°28'19.66"N, 103Ā°21'25.49"W, via Raz Oil And Gas LLC seen at 40 seconds in the video.||
..you aight there NWS?
unborn timber
testing to see how forwarding works for this
EY IT WORKS!
my fingers may be spared from the needless task of ctrl+C, ctrl+V š (such a challenge)
unborn timber
Ai is going nuts over today's event (currently starting)
First lil sign of things to come,
unborn timber
Now tagged as an Observed Tornado
unborn timber
unborn timber
Fujiwhara effect ongoing!
unborn timber
limber mesa
wha happun
unborn timber
I'm the "dude you go to for geolocation work" in several communities- Including this one ran by a YT'er friend of mine.
unborn timber
wha happun
tl;dr- YTer I know spent 2 hours bashing his head in on a geolocation attempt, pinged me for help at 1 AM and then found it 5 minutes later
jagged niche
Idk how to get this flavor of knowledge, but YES PLEASE
limber mesa
lmaooo
unborn timber
If you want to play along- here's the full image. 1999 Bridge Creek- Moore F5
I personally believe this area is close to (but not exactly at) || (35.203673210981336, -97.73580758265588) ish, Looking towards SW Bridge Creek.||
jagged niche
...Weather twitter is going nuts rn
Can you please ELI5 this to me?
Whatās the drama?
unborn timber
Can you please ELI5 this to me?
Just some anger goin around honestly
Reed's one of the "founding fathers" of the field imo- but he's always been a pretty gray zone character imo.
Twitter
think we're resolved š
unborn timber
weather community update while we're between severe events-
mass exodus from twitter from us
Scattered across BlueSky, Mastadoon, and any other site you can think of
jagged niche
Bluesky is a pretty fucking good social media, snag an account there
limber mesa
jagged niche
This damn wind, aaaaaaaa
limber mesa
unborn timber
So i've been silent for a bit- I've been working on a new EF scale for personal use.
Not even really changing much! Just sub dividing each EF category into Low End, Mid Point, and High End ratings to further subdivide the uncertainty between each one.
Here's my bullshit math dumbassery to figure this out.
jagged niche
Here's my bullshit math dumbassery to figure this out.
Id offer up a 2 parter for this: a "wind rating" and a "damage rating"
unborn timber
Well- We derive the wind estimates from the damage
jagged niche
its easy to imagine a 200+mph tornado just ripping through fields damaging like 2 houses
Sure, its a 200+mph tornado, but damage might as well be zero
unborn timber
The EF scale is already sorta an amalgamation of both lol, El Reno 2013 for example had over 220 MPH recorded winds, hit like 2 poorly built houses, and was given EF3.
jagged niche
Why not make it simple and have 2 ratings?
unborn timber
Internationally there's like 5 different tornado scales
jagged niche
The EF scale is already sorta an amalgamation of both lol, El Reno 2013 for exam...
Key word: amalgamation
unborn timber
EF(USA), F(Pre 2007), IF(International), TORRO(Europe), "Modified EF"(Canada) and a few others i'm forgetting off the top of my head.
unborn timber
Why not make it simple and have 2 ratings?
The biggest issue is that there's no good tools that can consistently get wind readings of a tornado without promptly being fucked up themselves.
unborn timber
Even radar (including the DOW here) scan above what the winds are on the surface, and typically record higher values.
(Typically)
They can be scanning 400 ft above the surface, 1,500+, 4,000+ It depends how far out the radar is.
jagged niche
Yea, maybe someone needs to make a portable (well, "portable") directional radar so people can point it right at the base for the most part
unborn timber
Yea, maybe someone needs to make a portable (well, "portable") directional radar...
That's the DOW (Doppler on Wheels)
jagged niche
Best way is to get a radar *right the fuck up there*
So people do that, neat
unborn timber
It's tough as shit to get set up usually, and you'll be getting like.. one storm a day with each truck.
Good odds that storm doesn't go brrr and produce too,
I always joke that if you're a meteorologist, you're very fuckin unlikely to be a gambling addict, because our fuckin primary hobby is chucking ourselves at 5% odds day in, day out hoping for a jackpot.
jagged niche
Same with a mathmatician who focuses on statistics
High school teacher who taught that said "gambling is a scam, i checked the numbers myself"
unborn timber
Same with a mathmatician who focuses on statistics
That's what Meteorology primarily is! It's a bunch of dumb math with a bit of pattern recongnition.
jagged niche
Nice
unborn timber
I'm gonna take a nap because holy shit I spent a real stupid length of time figuring out the midpoints of each rating, then realizing they would be forced to overlap under the new EF revision set to be released soon ā¢ļø
(Calculating the midpoints of the hex values for the colors was fucking easier!)
ex CURRENTLY, 110 MPH is EF1, 111 MPH is EF2,
Under the new EF revision, all MPH estimates will be rounded to the nearest 5 MPH- uh oh.
I derived a system like so- If it rounds up, it is marked as "110-", indicating 105 < x< 110, If it rounds down it will be marked "110+" indicating 110 ā¤ x< 115
If you look at the current EF scale- it seems like this was the original intention back in 2007 aswell, but they settled on making it easier by just setting each division at +1 MPH
The biggest controversy I can see from my scale is that.. well, 200 MPH exact would be EF5 going strictly off the pattern set,
This does allign with what TIm Marshall (Notable damage assessor who is working on the new EF revision) has mentioned, He has also stated 200 MPH EF5 a few times recently.
....Currently there are a few tornados rated 200 MPH EF4.
unborn timber
Twitter
Mighta had an aftershock- would have been BARELY felt on the surface, M3.5 estimated
Attached is one of the seisographs for the area.
unborn timber
Attached is one of the seisographs for the area.
Hexagons follow the MMI color scale for estimated (local) intensity.
unborn timber
Important note that the program i'm using has pure estimations using publicly accessible seismographs, don't expect my values to be exact
keen narwhal
NOAAās tide gauge website is down apparently according to @visual sphinx
Might be a useful webcam:
https://www.windy.com/-Webcams-Crescent-City/webcams/1635184770?41.872,-124.244,10
unborn timber
NOAAās tide gauge website is down apparently according to <@689208781229261049> ...
Might have been moved.
Also sorry about the scuffed link- it apparently adds my filters and where I was last looking
jagged niche
What program/website?
unborn timber
Full tsunami watch area- Effectively from Reedsport OR to just S of San Francisco is included.
unborn timber
What program/website?
This is GlobalQuake, there is a version being livestreamed 24/7, I have my own version running which will differ somewhat.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rvtygG4n6ew
Important note- This will sometimes catch false positives. There's a whole course in understanding the UI in itself
keen narwhal
Weather and geological phenomena
jagged niche
This is GlobalQuake, there is a version being livestreamed 24/7, I have my own v...
Hell yea, thank you! Sometimes catching a false positive is alright, since it proves that the sensors are working
mental lotus
Don't have time to go through this now but reupping this forum post full of livestreams https://discord.com/channels/709752884257882135/1144296259805528256
There's probably relevant ones here
unborn timber
If you do go to run it yourself- you can pull up each station-
Important UI things to look for- Top left, Program estimate of magnitude+ MMI scale, Revision #, Estimated epicenter location, Quality is a big one- Higher letter grade= more stations reporting it= more certain in estimations.
Just under that is the "Magnitude scale"- Basically "what are the odds it's X intensity given the data we have", and to the slight right of that is Stations used and a bunch of other fun data that you probably wont need.
jagged niche
Main worry personally is the moment a relatavly strong earthquake is felt closer to Washington State, thats whole coastline might be gone
unborn timber
For up to date (and more official) reports, always refer to https://tsunami.gov/ and also- https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/
(You honestly don't have to fiddle with setting up connections to seismograph stations yourself, I just do it because i am a nerd.)
Estimated start times for some selected areas. (If a tsunami does occur for these areas.)
left bridge
WEAK51 PAAQ 051954
TSUAK1
BULLETIN
Public Tsunami Message Number 3
NWS National Tsunami Warning Center Palmer AK
1154 AM PST Thu Dec 5 2024
...THE TSUNAMI WARNING IS CANCELLED...
* The Tsunami Warning is canceled for the coastal areas of
California and Oregon
OBSERVATIONS OF TSUNAMI ACTIVITY
--------------------------------
* No tsunami observations are available to report.
RECOMMENDED ACTIONS - UPDATED
-----------------------------
* Do not re-occupy hazard zones until local emergency officials
indicate it is safe to do so.
IMPACTS - UPDATED
-----------------
* No destructive tsunami has been recorded.
* No tsunami danger exists for the U.S. west coast, British
Columbia and Alaska.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND NEXT UPDATE
--------------------------------------
* Refer to the internet site tsunami.gov for more information.
* Pacific coastal regions outside California, Oregon,
Washington, British Columbia, and Alaska should refer to the
Pacific Tsunami Warning Center messages at tsunami.gov.
* This will be the final U.S. National Tsunami Warning Center
message issued for this event.
$$
Well, you sniped me on the tsunami cancellation
Still keepin an eye for aftershocks for the next.. probably hour.
jagged niche
-30.56199162499195, 128.99401256520997 @unborn timber lol check this out. Tornado scar
unborn timber
-30.56199162499195, 128.99401256520997 <@197185945521356800> lol check this out....
Yeah- there's a good few that only get ID'ed from satellite imagery later- There's a good thread on Twitter (somewhere) about North Korean tornados.
jagged niche
I love how people look around only to see undocumented tornados like āayo wutā
unborn timber
also no offence but Google served me quite literally all of these to my phone like a few days ago.
(Google News alerts lol)
jagged niche
also no offence but Google served me quite literally ***all of these*** to my ph...
I know you as the āBellingcat Tornado Memberā so the algorithm be hella strong for you lol
unborn timber
My life is staring at Google Earth for tornado paths too lol, got me on two fronts
jagged niche
lol
unborn timber
Majority of the reports so far are on the scale of "felt it- nothing really damaged"- Woke many people up lol.
https://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake_information/earthquake_map.php?id=1740821
jagged niche
Glad to know no one was seriously hurt, if anyone even got hurt to begin with
unborn timber
I'll be inactive in this server- if you need me, ping me/ DM me. Will not check this server.
unborn timber
NWS outlook for tomorrow- Looking at a potential strong (EF2+) tornado in theory (Likely wont get one.)
unborn timber
....aight i guess.
jagged niche
Screw Rockwall in particular I guess lmao
unborn timber
Screw Rockwall in particular I guess lmao
Nadocast does have a notable population bias (it's ran on weather data+ storm spotting reports from those prior events, more people in an area= more reports)
jagged niche
Hell yea
unborn timber
Just realized you weren't talkin about my post rip.
jagged niche
Still love how thereās basically NOTHING in Dallas but weather went ālmao screw Rockwallā with lightning
unborn timber
Still love how thereās basically NOTHING in Dallas but weather went ālmao screw ...
In like 3 hours, check Houston***. (oop wrong city)
jagged niche
aight bet
unborn timber
NWS outlook for tomorrow- Looking at a potential strong (EF2+) tornado *in theor...
Upgraded to ENH, New tornado probs.
unborn timber
Yeah- Houston within the next 3 hours.
Events starting to kick off- Start of the event around 3-ish,
unborn timber
just a mini archive for myself.
jagged niche
To no oneās shock, the Bellingcat servers resident meteorologist is correct about meteorology
tired prism
To no oneās shock, the Bellingcat servers resident meteorologist is correct abou...
(Just to be clear, @unborn timber is not in any way affiliated with Bellingcat the organisation.)
jagged niche
(Just to be clear, <@197185945521356800> is not in any way affiliated with Belli...
I know, but Acedog chills specifically in this thread a lot
(At least from what Iāve seen š )
tired prism
Your phrasing implied that he is affiliated with Bellingcat. That's why I made sure to point out that this is not the case. For anyone reading this.
jagged niche
Yea, thatās fair
unborn timber
at best- i chuck some additional reading towards the party
jagged niche
where are they then?
tired prism
Hiding in your walls.
jagged niche
Hiding in your walls.
Tell em to plz come out, Iāve been a good boy 
unborn timber
https://vxtwitter.com/GooseW900/status/1872380658573881719
i'm a weird neither category, I am like half in both boat. Geolocating tornado vids- which- working on this one now.
I have helped out the NWS w/ damage assessments technically (helped geolocate videos/ images)
more of a volunteer QC sorta deal than anything official.
Geolocated additional video to around ( 29Ā°12'19.67"N 96Ā°15'5.43"W)
https://twitter.com/VortixWx/status/1872390391997378932/video/1
Twitter
I'd love it if the image sent correctly.
you run into the weirdest area names doin this- "Big Thicket Lake Estates"
There's a chance of a very strong tornado NE of Houston here in a bit... Gonna bunker my head down, and consolidate in my usual discord servers.. sending radar image now.
Twitter
Immediately went PDS, (Might already be lifted. I loss any sign of a CC drop on it, gonna give it a few)
Likely lifted, will post any notable situations in here. A fair few brief weak rotations- most won't do anything.
unborn timber
Prolly be somewhat back tomorrow.
unborn timber
....Something's going to kick up as it crosses the Mississippi river I fuckin just know it.
Seems to be the trend with MS's significant tornados fairly lately.
unborn timber
Prolly be somewhat back tomorrow.
unborn timber
unborn timber
In for a long day, hunkering down for geolocation work all day today.
unborn timber
Yeah we might have an issue for Alexandria, LA.
Tanked an inflow merger then started showin signs of wrapping up.
Might have produced an extremely brief tornado, area's now looking quite.. blobby.
Likely a merger induced tornado if one did occur, storm does not appear to be as great of a threat anymore on current view.
unborn timber
Lanky boy.
jagged niche
nah that mario image is cursed
unborn timber
unborn timber
Twitter
Possibly just had a strong tornado go through Dickinson TX (proximity to radar makes this very hard to verify.)
unborn timber
https://x.com/NWStornado/status/1873100575522603381
literally me 5 minutes before the PDS watch :l
unborn timber
Hillcrest, TX tornado (ongoing.)
Still ongoing- left the coast at Dickinson, about to reach the other side of the bay and show up near Oak Island, TX
Holy cow- it held a vel bleed event across the bay!
That's a proper strong one.
This storm is going to make me look at the coast for the next like 2-4 hours I can already tell....
This is the "biggest concern" of the entire event so far, and likely will continue to be.
unborn timber
A TOR-E is likely soon to be issued for Port Arthur.
Very notable day, PDS in TX, PDS in MS active at the same time
hardy geyser
Looking scarry around Jackson MS right now. Here's Ryan Hall's livestream.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NbbfVfYX7Ro&ab_channel=RyanHall%2CY'all
hardy geyser
So many tornado warnings.
unborn timber
yeah it peaked a few hours ago (contextually)
One storm's tornado paths.
(actually 5 tornados, it dropped as it left Dickinson, CROSSED THE TRINITY BAY (15 miles) then kept going for another 70 miles until it crossed a 2nd bay!
Mostly over rural areas but jesus this one was going! (Held a very notable strength it's entire life.)
(Some people had radar estimations of around 200 MPH, but those were elevated scans, surface winds would be expected to be much lower.)
hardy geyser
I think there are like 10 active tornado warnings right now.
Mostly in MS
I can't keep up.
unborn timber
One storm's tornado paths.
Merger after merger after merger, environment refused to let up on this cell. (This storm continues to be tornadic a long time after this)
unborn timber
Houston was unbelievably lucky today.
jagged niche
holy hell
unborn timber
Port Arthur super Preliminary High end EF3 (161 MPH) rating, Only one NWS office submitted data for their assessment over this path so far (red line indicate CWAs)
Meanwhile,
Porter Heights preliminary EF3 (145 MPH)
unborn timber
Houston was *unbelievably* lucky today.
Houston area damage map as of the posting of this message- Likely to be refined further, as not all tornados have been assessed fully. (I think a few aren't even assessed, such as the Port Arthur path in Houston's CWA.)
jagged niche
godspeed
hardy geyser
It's 34% humidity here with gusty winds. I can't wait until all of my neighbors set off their fireworks. What could go wrong?
jagged niche
It's 34% humidity here with gusty winds. I can't wait until all of my neighbors ...
An eventful start of the year
hardy geyser
An eventful start of the year
Let's hope not. So far it's just gun shots. That's ironically safer than fireworks in these conditions.
jagged niche
āGunshotsā and āsaferā¦in these conditionsā SHOULD NOT go together
Yet here we are
jagged niche
Let's hope not. So far it's just gun shots. That's ironically safer than firewor...
Join em /j
hardy geyser
My wife and cats would not approve, even though most of our guns belong to one of them. š
hardy geyser
Worried about the weather between Jan 4-7 though
In your neck of the woods?
jagged niche
In your neck of the woods?
Texas, yea
hardy geyser
Stay on top of the weather and close to shelter friend.
slow jasper
My wife and cats would not approve, even though most of our guns belong to one o...
I would like to meet these cats with guns š
jagged niche
Stay on top of the weather and close to shelter friend.
Thank you, will do
unborn timber
:l that's a fairly regarded storm chaser and meteorologist advertising a gambling site for tornado counts.
jagged niche
Dang
jagged niche
Lowkey prepped for this weekend because of the polar vortex, and already expecting the Texas power grid to implode
limber mesa
our one unit of winter arrives here in the northern plains as well
unborn timber
Twitter
First tornado of 2025 goes to Northern California what in the hell?
yeah he was smoovin
unborn timber
Full superstition atm- but like, every time there's a severe event in Dixie... If a tornado pops up somewhere W of the Rockies a day or two prior- the main event will be one to watch usually. Would keep my eye on LA/MS for that D3.
jagged niche
Texas isnāt prepped for snow/ice.
limber mesa
yeah I can see us sending equipment down there again
jagged niche
yeah I can see us sending equipment down there again
At this point in life I am considering sending nitro in here if the power grid DOESNT implode during the storm... (assuming green/blue names allow it outside of DMs)
unborn timber
btw you can see GOES imagery w/ a pretty good UI w/ the College of Dupage's website.
