JUNE 2023: "Psychology of Intelligence Analysis" - Richard J Heuer Jnr

[mighty bough]

The book tribe has spoken and our June book has been decided.
"Psychology of Intelligence Analysis" - Richard J Heuer Jnr

It's a short sharp 184 pages, which is great as I'm sure there will be a bunch of questions and discussion around this one.

On the plus side, PDF's of the book are freely available on the interwebs and there is plenty written about it as it used as a training guide for many agencies.

https://www.goodreads.com/en/book/show/113714

[plain glacier]

That's a good book. But I'm still reading the last one

[mighty bough]

Plenty of time....we'll be kicking off first week of June.

[jagged fulcrum]

This one isn't until June. So you can find a copy in time!

[jagged fulcrum]

Ordered. Delivery may be a close call.

[hard raptor]

Psychology of Intelligence Analysis - CIA https://www.cia.gov/static/9a5f1162fd0932c29bfed1c030edf4ae/Pyschology-of-Intelligence-Analysis.pdf

The CIA has it on their website

Spelled wrong

[hard raptor]

If the CIA is circulating it, I feel okay linking lol

[jagged fulcrum]

"Access Denied"

Now I'm worried.

[hard raptor]

Am American so was allowed in

[steel ginkgo]

Oh boy!

[viscid fog]

I can access it from a free Dutch VPN address lol

[jagged fulcrum]

Ha! It works for me too, now.

[hard raptor]

thanks to the homies in the CIA who got that sorted we know you're lurking fellas

[steel ginkgo]

😏

[steel ginkgo]

The design on the front is even better close up. I can't wait!

[plain glacier]

I found mine, too

[steel ginkgo]

https://tenor.com/view/toddlers-and-tiaras-big-grin-excited-girl-giddy-smile-gif-25584914

[turbid pumice]

It's a really good read. I read it last fall. Excellent.

[mighty bough]

Greetings Book-clubbers - I hope you are all well.

Peering ahead to the next Book of the Month, here are the reading and chat details you'll need to know, just in case you want to make a head-start on your reading.

The dates of the book chats will be as follows:
Sunday June 11th (21:00 CET - time to be confirmed)
Sunday June 25th (21:00 CET - time to be confirmed)

Reading milestones:
For June 11th - 84 pages - Preface, foreward, introduction and chapter 1 through to the end of chapter 6.
For June 25th: - 100 pages - Chapter 7 through to the end of chapter 14.

These page numbers are based on the print version, copyright 2018 so let me know if there are any discrepancies with other versions/kindle/pdf, etc ..... I'm sure we'll work it out.

See you for the final chat about " How Fascism Works" on Sunday -> https://discord.com/events/709752884257882135/1110214527611584612

And if you haven't already done so, get your vote in for the July Book of the Month -> #1082270288403779666 message

Thanks everyone and happy reading

[mighty bough]

I'm going to slap this in here and pin it as it could be useful and a prompt for some further discussion as we move through the book.

[steel ginkgo]

https://tenor.com/view/reading-addams-family-morticia-addams-what-shocked-gif-15642732

I don't know about you, but if you're not excited about this month's book, you should be!

[mighty bough]

It’s very good…. Only half way through Chapter 4 but there are lots of highlighter marks to go back over!

[steel ginkgo]

Indeed!

[viscid fog]

Well, that's the limitation of every forecasting model

It just means the model was wrong or failed to include some determining variable

This doesn't mean that these models or consensus should be disregarded, just understand that they aren't perfect because you can't never fully predict the future

[steel ginkgo]

It's very zen in that way, that is, mindfulness of thought and actions.

[frosty cloak]

Been a good 30 years since I've been in a book club or read something actively like this. Any websites on how to take notes, highlighting points, etc? TIA

[vestal scaffold]

Found this while starting June’s book in the introduction.
Does anybody know if this was ever public? Sounds like a fascinating read.

[mighty bough]

I think everyone digests information and takes notes differently.... there are some good videos from Farnham Street, Tiago Forte, Thomas Franks, Robin Waldin, etc but this is how I go about it.
On Kindle - I'll just highlight passages and they push directly to Readwise. I can then go to the book on Readwise and see all my highlighted passages. I then go through the passages and summarise the highlights in my own words in Notion (I have a template set up) - the books file set up in Notion is - Top three takeaways from book, my summary of the highlights and then the quoted highlights below from the author.....I can add diagrams and photos in this final book summary.
For physical books I just mark them up..... I quickly scan a chapter to get its structure and as I read I'll mark up the book with highlighters for important concepts (and mini post-it-notes, pencil underlines for interesting passages and margin stars and notes.
After each chapter I'll use spare pages at the front of the book to write page numbers and a brief blurb on what is important on that page.
Post reading I like to summarise the book and findings into Notion as per Kindle but physical typing it all out is a bit time consuming.
I have been taking photos of physical book highlight with the Readwise app, then I can push it straight to Notion afterwards.
Sounds kind of complicated but in reality it's not too bad.

https://fs.blog/taking-notes-while-reading/

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ATDCsY-VJPA

[steel ginkgo]

🤓

[steel ginkgo]

Maybe we should look for it... I mean, it's just the little ol' CIA editorial team hiding it.

[mighty bough]

@vestal scaffold Perhaps this one?

https://calhoun.nps.edu/bitstream/10945/44276/1/Heuer_Strategic_1981.pdf

[steel ginkgo]

Bingo! Thank you, good Sir.

[mighty bough]

We’re going to need more highlighters 😞

[plain glacier]

You can cut the important things out ✌️

[mighty bough]

Ohhh...I forgot to mention. With an app like Readwise you can import highlights from PDF's, webpages, Twitter feeds, all sorts of stuff + send it to PKM systems like Obsidian.

[vestal scaffold]

Excellent find thank you so much. I’m only 10 mins into it and it’s already as interesting as anticipated. Would recommend.

[vestal scaffold]

It actually works as a really good supplemental read to the book from the perspective of swapping sides as it were and trying to make good intelligence analysis as close to impossible through misdirection. Will be something interesting to keep in mind as I go through the actual book.

[mighty bough]

I haven't had a chance to read it yet but I threw it in the pins ⬆️ so we can circle back to it later if needed.

[hard raptor]

I have to say, I found this concerning that it only was implemented sometimes between 1982-1986 lol
Gates’s main impact, though, came from practice—from his direct
involvement in implementing his ideas. Using his authority as DDI, he
reviewed critically almost all in-depth assessments and current intelli-
gence articles prior to publication. With help from his deputy and two
rotating assistants from the ranks of rising junior managers, Gates raised
the standards for DDI review dramatically—in essence, from “looks
good to me” to “show me your evidence.”

As the many drafts Gates rejected were sent back to managers who
had approved them—accompanied by the DDI’s comments about in-
consistency, lack of clarity, substantive bias, and poorly supported judg-
ments—the whole chain of review became much more rigorous. Analysts
and their managers raised their standards to avoid the pain of DDI rejec-
tion. Both career advancement and ego were at stake.

(page xvii on the PDF)

[steel ginkgo]

It really sheds light on the impact of bureaucracy during the analysis and reporting process. I think it goes without saying that most US government agencies and organization are personality driven. It's like getting a new General —all operations are suspect and too often changes start rolling down the pipeline, even though the last General's call to action never had the time to fully take hold. At most it unfair to the worker bees, but if and when it effects intelligence products, especially time sensitive ones, then the problem is compounded, leaving uncertainly. Uncertainly being the enemy of the intelligence game.

[steel ginkgo]

@mighty bough you’ve made my day. Just like anyone feeding my Obsidian obsession 🤩.

[steel ginkgo]

As the CIA selflessly sponsors our book club, I wonder about inviting them over for our stage event to have a chat about the Psychology of Intelligence? 👩‍🎓📚 Wouldn’t that be interesting?

[jagged fulcrum]

What makes you think they won't be there? 👀 😉

[steel ginkgo]

I mean another department and expect them to formally introduce themselves 😂.

[hard raptor]

I got totally wrecked by figure 1

And I am learning a lot about weak spots in my thinking process

[steel ginkgo]

And he played it so smooth, knowing how we'd feel. It was then that I knew, I know nothing.

[hard raptor]

This wasn't my choice but I'm glad we are reading it. I am always trying to be a better writer and editor and finding gaps in my thinking is useful

I can also really see how fatigue hurts your critical thinking skills. I was very tired and trying to catch up, and I was just receiving the information from the book instead of parsing it or fighting with it. That passivity isn't good

[viscid fog]

I'm finally going through it and... guess you'll hear of me when we go through chapter 3

[hard raptor]

erredece running the show tomorrow

[viscid fog]

Yes

Same time as usual?

[hard raptor]

Sounds great, I'll do the intro and then peace out and go shopping

I'll be back at 4 to cut your ranting off

[hard raptor]

Just a reminder that book club featuring erredece is in a little over 4 hours! See you all then

[steel ginkgo]

https://tenor.com/view/yes-napoleon-dynamite-fist-pump-gif-3464462

[plush bear]

Sorry, I'll have to skip tonight I'm afraid, as I'm behind with everything. Should have caught up for the next session.

[viscid fog]

Personally, I still recommend to come over even if you haven't really started, the topics discussed are generalised and will go beyond (or in some points against 😈 ) what is being discussed in the book

[plain glacier]

I'm always asleep that late. We need a postbookclubbookclub

[plush bear]

Exactly that!

[viscid fog]

Cultural differences here: we're on the same timezone but you'll be asleep and I won't have dinner until after the event

[plain glacier]

I stand up at 4 🤷🏻‍♀️🥱

[hard raptor]

I'm behind on everything too

[steel ginkgo]

Is it ok to just join passively and listen or is it bad form, I'm also a bit behind

[hard raptor]

totally fine! we don't call on you

[steel ginkgo]

Could anyone feeling behind please join the show, so that we can be behind in this together 😂

My schedule: 🌊
Me: 🏄‍♂️

[steel ginkgo]

I think I saw someone recommend this in the bookclub and just wanted to point out that it's free online. It also acts as a much more recent look at a lot of similar topics which might be helpful from a compare and contrast point of view because I know we spent a lot of time putting the book in a historical context and talking about how not everything has held up over time. https://www.dia.mil/FOIA/FOIA-Electronic-Reading-Room/FileId/161442/

[mighty bough]

Another resource dump

https://www.stat.berkeley.edu/~aldous/157/Papers/Tradecraft Primer-apr09.pdf

[hard raptor]

another resource dump
https://twitter.com/CAPYBARA_MAN

[mighty bough]

One more.....

https://tenor.com/view/another-one-dj-khaled-saturday-night-live-one-more-get-one-gif-17103298

[steel ginkgo]

Last one from me: https://airpower.airforce.gov.au/sites/default/files/2021-03/AF13-Applied-Thinking-for-Intelligence-Analysis.pdf same topic but from the Australian Air Force and again much more recent (in the last decade)

[summer dawn]

Hello, I also want to join in here, can I jump in between ??

[viscid fog]

Of course

[summer dawn]

I am very new to OSINT and just saw this book-club, book seems interesting to read, so thought of asking ...

[viscid fog]

Everyone is welcome, and you're more than welcome to join (:

It's also good timing since turns out most people were behind of schedule on our last meeting on Sunday

[summer dawn]

so how does it work ??
I give a read on the book and join vc or something ??

[viscid fog]

Every month we vote for a book to read (see #1082270288403779666 ), and we just read it on our own.

We hold biweekly meetups on the second and fourth Sunday of the month where we all join the Stage and discuss the book. The moderating team will be hosting and people can contribute either by voice or by text on the chat. You can see the next meeting in the Events tab on the top of the channel list.

And then if it all goes well, the last week of the month we have a Stage talk with the author of the book. On April we had Bellingcat founder Eliot Higgins, and last month we had fascism expert Jason Stanley, as we read their books for their respective month

[summer dawn]

cool, Thanks for the info
stage talk with author seems compelling for me to read the book 😆

[viscid fog]

This month it's a bit tricky since it's a CIA book, but the meeting discussions are pretty active, and personally I really recommend reading this book

[summer dawn]

book title itself looks interesting enough to give it a read

[viscid fog]

It does provide some insight that applies well beyond open source research.

I'm a bit biased for it myself as my background is psychology and computational neuroscience 😅 , but precisely this book is about understanding how our on cognitive processes affect our judgements, with a focus on intelligence analysis

[summer dawn]

these kind of books which questions oneself, about their judgements, how one makes decisions are a good read

[viscid fog]

Content wise it's somewhat outdated, but still a great read for the purpose that it serves, so I still very strongly recommend it

Think of it as a "questioning your rationale 101"

[warped mantle]

yes

in fact

this doesnt get mentioned a lot

but a lot of his writings we now see as part of this book were part of his studies on D&D

ACH for example was actually originally created as a methodology to assess incidents where there is the possibility of deception being present

most of his other stuff not in the book is locked up in govt libraries, most of it hasn't been FOIA'd similar to Whaley and Bell etc

what you see in the book though is basically a combination of a bunch of his prior writings (some of it the stuff that hasn't been released directly)

[vestal scaffold]

Super interesting background. It was a really interesting paper but I’d love to see more too. Some interesting threads there to pull on for sure.

[warped mantle]

I'll dm you some stuff so it doesn't detract from the channel

But browsing through the book itself you'll see a lot of stuff rooting from his studies there, just not identified in form. That's why the note around your highlight is about there not being a specific chapter about it, because it's interspersed throughout the whole book.

[warped mantle]

also if anyone wants a copy of the ACH software I have it saved somewhere, its not up on the new PARC site but it is open source software so all good to have etc

[mighty bough]

MW - any recommendations for ACH software for Mac?
I was just thinking this morning as I'm working through Chapter 8, it would be a good exercise to run ACH over the scenarios that have been discussed in #1072947857654554624

[warped mantle]

Shot you the link, with the Nord steam one, I'd also include some Bayesian analysis into your assessment

Or well, for a formal analysis, if you're just toying with ACH thats diff

[mighty bough]

Thanks for that MW! - that's a lot of reading to be done at my house!!

[tranquil aurora]

there is a uni course published to youtube if you wanna check that out. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AW4ZOnd0Kyw&list=PL_ascJnytX_G3F3-0zdae91K51z4colPB&ab_channel=GeorgeWashingtonUniversity

[steel ginkgo]

[mighty bough]

Another that I posted elsewhere about 6 months back

|https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=udae1Tz0IcU&list=PLxzz0tls2X9DEgbqzcerj1kBXbWpDT4w_

[steel ginkgo]

[steel ginkgo]

Book Review & Summary: Psychology of Intelligence Analysis

"My book review and summary of "Psychology of Intelligence Analysis" by Richards J. Heuer.

In this book, Richard Heuer explores the relationship between psychology and intelligence analysis, and how understanding human thought processes can improve the quality and accuracy of intelligence analysis.

Heuer delves into various topics such as cognitive biases, how to avoid them, and how to use analytical techniques to improve decision-making. He also provides real-life examples of how intelligence analysis has been used in the past, and how it can be applied to various fields such as national security, business, and finance.

One of the key takeaways from this book is that intelligence analysis is not just about collecting and analyzing data, but also about understanding the human mind and its limitations. By recognizing cognitive biases and using analytical techniques to improve decision-making, we can improve the accuracy and effectiveness of intelligence analysis.

Overall, "Psychology of Intelligence Analysis" is a thought-provoking and insightful book, but kind of dry. It will appeal to anyone interested in psychology, intelligence analysis, or decision-making. But there are definitely more exciting and accessible books out there if you are looking to improve your thinking."

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MTD5EkBCgQI

[steel ginkgo]

Wanted to see who else happened to follow Perun on YouTube, while he is a military / defence analyst I thought he might be one of the single best public examples I've ever come across of what I understand great analysis to look like. Both the kinds of techniques and the way he is able to package it together into a final product / analysis. For anyone not already familiar here is an example of what I mean looking at the Ukrainian counter offensive operation https://youtu.be/olH2-_Gtczw I thought it was nice to have some actual examples to point to rather than just a theoretical framework of what makes good analysis.

[viscid fog]

Perun is great but this thread is for the discussion of the "Psychology of Intelligence Analysis" book 😅

[steel ginkgo]

This is a great example. I recently watched it, having never experienced Perun before. To my delight, it was breath of fresh air to take in such a well-deliver product. A great example, indeed.

Sorry, wasn't actually trying to derail or anything. Just to make that link from theoretical to applied examples

I see where @steel ginkgo fits this into our discussion, as an example of what an effective analytical product looks like.

[steel ginkgo]

Appreciated the share.

[viscid fog]

I disagree because while it's a good example of an effective analytical product is, I think this is more about understanding the mechanisms of human psychology and how this matters in the development of intelligence analysis

Perun's work is great and I listen to his videos often (I have yet to listen to this last one), but I cannot tell how much he accounts for an understanding of cognition. So that's why I don't see the relevance.

I still appreciate the will to share, don't get me wrong on that

[steel ginkgo]

All good 🙂 To me it was perhaps a bit more high level than strictly in that human psychology domain but more an example of final product that you have at the end of the process but also to bring it back to the psychology side of things I'd probably make the argument of how as he moves through the evidence he makes it very explicit to highlight what information was used to come to those conclusions, talks a lot about the potential problems associated with how to interpret them and tends to make use of techniques like ACH for example.

[viscid fog]

Ok, then if he does mention techniques like ACH then it's actually relevant here, as this book precisely discusses it (and feel free to read a chat earlier today in #chit-chat into the limitations of ACH inspired by this book precisely )

I stand corrected in this case!

[steel ginkgo]

Really interesting discussion, thanks for pointing it out, I actually thought that was one of the most interesting but also underexplored things last time was the angle of what parts of the book don't quite stand up to a more modern scientific understanding, what those faults were, why they are now not thought of as credible and what the latest thinking is around it along with any implications it may hold.

[steel ginkgo]

Also just to be 100% clear, ACH isn't mentioned by name or anything like that but that is a technique I see pop up quite often in his videos and in that one I linked as an example of how it might look when folded into a final product.

I also found it a helpful compare and contrast exercise to see how more modern works approached the subject. I posted an example from the Australian Air Force (#1102489873916633098 message) 2014 and DIA (https://www.dia.mil/FOIA/FOIA-Electronic-Reading-Room/FileId/161442/) 2008 to try and understand that a bit better

[steel ginkgo]

Following up on the supplemental book club link dump idea.

Example ACH spreadsheets
https://github.com/pstirparo/threatintel-resources

Applied Thinking for Intelligence Analysis: A guide for practitioners - Australian Air Force (2014)
https://airpower.airforce.gov.au/sites/default/files/2021-03/AF13-Applied-Thinking-for-Intelligence-Analysis.pdf

A tradecraft primer: Basic Structured Analytic Techniques - Defence Intelligence Agency (2008)
https://www.dia.mil/FOIA/FOIA-Electronic-Reading-Room/FileId/161442/

Improving CIA Analytic Performance: Strategic Warning - CIA (2002)
https://www.cia.gov/static/2c195241699da364e003c1a28d313182/Strategic-Warning-1.pdf

What I Learned in 40 Years of Doing Intelligence Analysis for US Foreign Policymakers - Martin Peterson (CIA Directorate of Intelligence officer) (2011)
https://www.cia.gov/static/What-I-Learned-40.pdf

The congnitive bases of intelligence analysis - US Army Research Institute for behavioural and social science (1984)
https://apps.dtic.mil/sti/tr/pdf/ADA146132.pdf

Strategic Deception and Counterdeception, a Cognitive Process Approach - Richard J Heuer (1981)
https://calhoun.nps.edu/bitstream/handle/10945/44276/Heuer_Strategic_1981.pdf;jsessionid=E5D54EC739FE1EEF29055DC69AC2AF61?sequence=1

The last link there I thought was particularly interesting as it's coming from the perspective of how to defeat opposition intelligence analysis

and is from the same author

Hi ya, as we've discussed Social Media stuff and the SWOT analysis: This free online course provides an excellent introduction. It might also be useful for figuring out how to share your research with the public or in terms of internal communication in the most efficient and effective way:

https://www.open.edu/openlearn/money-business/business-communication-writing-swot-analysis/content-section-0?active-tab=description-tab

[steel ginkgo]

Thank you for sharing and making my reading list even longer :)).

Also for someone asking for some more modern stuff, I found this chart very useful just in terms of how the various pieces fit together but is much more focused around what makes a good final product rather than how you arrived there which was more what we were talking about. I just figured it was good like the Perun reference from before to take a look at the next step of packaging it all together.

[hard raptor]

to commemorate the laughs I had in book club today

[steel ginkgo]

One last resource while I think of it (technically 2)
The author of this book actually wrote a short piece that looked specifically at how the ideas have evolved since first writing it here in a paper titled **The Evolution of Structured Analytic Techniques ** from 2009
https://www.e-education.psu.edu/geog885/sites/www.e-education.psu.edu.geog885/files/file/Evolution_SAT_Heuer.pdf

The second is just a Google Scholar link to search results for structured analytic techniques that has some great looking links there too https://scholar.google.com/scholar?hl=en&as_sdt=0%2C5&q=structured+analytic+techniques

[mighty bough]

Thanks for sorting out all those links @steel ginkgo

[vestal scaffold]

No problems, thanks to you and the rest of the team for organising all of this and making it an enjoyable experience it was my first book club adventure here but I’m sure it won’t be my last