Nord Stream Pipeline

[true barn]

https://eurosolidarity.org/2021/05/22/petro-poroshenko-we-have-been-fighting-against-nord-stream-2-for-5-years-and-now-we-need-to-prevent-any-scenario-which-endangers-ukraine/

[sand delta]

Quite speculative. I don't see any reason why (no matter whether Russian/American intelligence or Ukrainian oligarch) limited to Ukrainian border.

And Poro isn't the CEO of any "Western European" companies.

[velvet rain]

Another interesting thing from the SZ article is that apparently parliamentary committees will be briefed by the investigators now. Might result in further leaks.

[sand delta]

That's why I wrote "or another Oligarch". Poroschenko isn't a CEO of a western company, but he has the money, it is his birthday so that fits and from his time as president and as a big CEO he may have the contacts to get the explosives.

[sand delta]

Doesn't mean anything. Might be just as disguising as the Polish company.

[true barn]

https://twitter.com/poroshenko/status/1027808787112046592?s=46&t=xG85jhtgtdgjd67FF2RnGQ

Петро Порошенко (@poroshenko)

«Nord Stream-2» is a «Trojan horse» of the Kremlin against European energy and, ultimately, geopolitical security.

I call on our European partners to get rid of the deceptive and destructive Kremlin spell as soon as possible and firmly defend their own energy security.

Likes

192

Retweets

102

Twitter · Aug 10, 2018, 6:48 AM

[sand delta]

With the amount of Ukrainian supposed involvement, with the Polish company, the Western European company, the Ukrainian formerly politically active businessman, surely the commando may as well have just painted themselves and the Andromeda in Yellow and Blue Paint.

[sand delta]

No news, all pro European Ukrainian politicians said this

[junior moat]

funny extra for the real connoisseurs 😉 :
https://www.dw.com/en/russian-pranksters-posing-as-ukraines-ex-leader-call-merkel/a-64765976

[true barn]

makes sense @sand delta

[velvet rain]

I mean, the Polish company is basically organisational equivalent of yellow/blue paint here already.

[sand delta]

Yep.

[velvet rain]

Honestly, it feels a bit like the whole Sims 3 thing again.

[deft stone]

?

[velvet rain]

https://twitter.com/EliotHiggins/status/1518615779985534978

Eliot Higgins (@EliotHiggins)

I genuinely believe this is a dumb FSB officer being told to get 3 SIMs.

Likes

5401

Retweets

687

Twitter · Apr 25, 2022, 3:39 PM

[sand delta]

Btw. Here's Poro the only Ukrainian https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/September_26#Births

[sand delta]

How could we have not spotted this before!

[tired monolith]

so insanely epic that was, nothing more out of place than an ancient computer game in physical form

[sand delta]

Only 2 Sims this time, renting the Andromeda used up too much of our budget.

[sand delta]

wrong chat for this man

[nimble gull]

This is entertaining and all but in all honesty just a game of spook telephone.

[sand delta]

Sorry.

[raw nexus]

Ommmm

[nimble gull]

What an oligarch thing to do though (if true): ”please circle around for a few days on this tiny boat, I want it blown up on my birthday.”

[sand delta]

If they had no big ego they would not be oligarchs

[junior moat]

in other news the Süddeutsche Zeitung also gives this weird hint about a possible failed explosion on the 2nd line of NS2.... "Die Ermittler jedenfalls haben verdächtige Kratzer entdeckt." --> can @sand delta maybe also sketch out for us how SIMs scratched the pipeline there 😜

[deft stone]

I cant get over the fact that the reason Süddeutsche Zeitung seems to think its interesting is because of the birthday. Or Intelligence for that matter

[sand delta]

I'll do my best.

[junior moat]

"suspicious scratches" .... what ? the explosion failed and there is scratches but no explosives ? how. does. that. work. ??

[sand delta]

SZ did not come up with Poroshenko.

[nimble gull]

I don’t read it like that at all, but of course I’m reading via Google translate

[sand delta]

Poro is just us trying to read between the lines of a few different articles.

[deft stone]

Sry, I meant NYT

[junior moat]

maybe Andromeda went back after the 26th to collect the explosives from the failed explosion 😄

[deft stone]

I mean, it is extremely heavily implied, so...

[nimble gull]

Presumably Germany’s libel laws are less severe than UK (famously strict) and US, but I’m no expert

[sand delta]

Surely, the German journalists could hand it over to their American colleagues though?

[sand delta]

It's clear that SZ's source told them about a Ukrainian businessman/ former politician who's birthday happens to be the same day. They did not come up with Poro.

[nimble gull]

Agreed

[sand delta]

If you really want something reported and you're afraid of libel, just get the Yanks to publish it.

[nimble gull]

But they still can’t just quote an anonymous source and print it, that sounds pretty libelous to me

[sand delta]

That's what 99% of all investigative journalists do.

[raw nexus]

For me it's a sloppy researched article.

[nimble gull]

Yes but not with the name of a billionaire who could sue them out of business

[sand delta]

For what would he sue them? I don't sue the playboy if they would report I have the biggest d***k 😄

[vocal violet]

Anyway, summary rearranged and updated, if someone is going to proof read it, let me know if something needs to be pointed out

[sand delta]

Good job

[vocal violet]

Nah, good job to you guys with all the time and work you're putting here, I'm just trying to condense it into something quick and readable that can also help us orientate this investigation better

[sand delta]

The Poroshenko interview, now that I view it without going through a Twitter account, seems to be age restricted?

stupid question: where can I read the summary?

[vocal violet]

https://docs.google.com/document/d/127ofIt_FaSbqzfxUgeiaBYKH8INjzMWGsJo8_XH-13k

It's pinned up there but other pins are starting to push it down 😅

[sand delta]

Noticed something commented in Oliver's substack article.

https://oalexanderdk.substack.com/p/the-minerva-julie-unknowing-submarine

Robert Gillette

Soviet/Russian submarines have long had the capability of carrying small, crewed tracked vehicles for seabed operations. I learned this as a correspondent in Moscow in the 1980s. A popular Soviet military magazine I subscribed to once featured an artist’s rendering of such a vehicle mounted on the back of a submarine.

Thinking that this might explain tracks that Swedish intel was observing on its nearby seabed, I gave the magazine to a Swedish defense attaché whom I knew. He reported back a week or so later that Swedish mil intel also subscribed to that magazine—but that this particular issue had never arrived in the mail. We concluded that publication of this image had been a mistake, and that foreign mailings had been stopped.

No doubt in the intervening 40 years or so, this capability has significantly evolved.

Is there reporting on Sweden finding tracks?

[vocal violet]

Ah yeah, saw that comment at the very end too, good question

[velvet rain]

The tracks were visible in the underwater footage.

[sand delta]

Expressen?

https://www.blueyerobotics.com/blog/underwater-drone-located-and-inspected-the-damage-on-nord-stream-pipeline

[velvet rain]

Someone posted this video here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A3V2JQ0X3x4

[velvet rain]

Yep, that one.

[sand delta]

And there's apparently another Blueye ROV being used by Danish journalists for the Danish ones here: https://www.tv2bornholm.dk/artikel/se-de-foerste-billeder-fra-den-danske-zone

The Danish footage is a little less exciting, they are being a bit more reserved with what they do.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w_QQE9LVmtg

and there's also a BBC drone expedition.

[rustic bay]

@vocal violet handled

[sand delta]

@sand delta Find one?

https://youtu.be/44MiWYvI2G4?t=203 take this for the summary, it is on the officia MSNBC youtube. NS issue starting at 3:23

[elfin cradle]

When? Dont find. You mean the trenches?

[velvet rain]

Yeah, or did I misunderstand what was meant by tracks?

[sand delta]

I thought it was gonna be like divers footprints or maybe a tank track for some underwater vehicle.

[velvet rain]

Oh, my bad.

Seems to be the tank track thing. Which the trenches definitely are not.

[sand delta]

All good 🙂

In as much as these are any use:

https://play.tv2bornholm.dk/?id=858980 (Danish TV reporting about Christianso, starts at 04:43)

https://www.tv2bornholm.dk/artikel/ekspert-om-tankskib-sejlmoensteret-er-specielt (Danish article about Mr. Kaarsbo's thoughts on the Minerva Julie)

[junior moat]

after the Poro excitement has settled down a little, I'm cycling back to VHF comms with M.Julie

[sand delta]

There's a couple reasons why there might only be an request with no acknowledgement received.

For example, the DSC guy might be in range of the Minerva Julie, but not in range of the coast station its calling, even though that coast station is in range of the Minerva Julie.

[junior moat]

yeah that's what I'm suspecting

[sand delta]

In which case you only receive half of the conversation, or in this case, half of the DSC beeps and bops.

[junior moat]

also the last four messages recorded here are I think just two messages, each of which is recorded by two different receiver DSC guys

( seen by RX_ID - receiver id )

I'm just trying to see if any other ships ever send J3E TP, or that's just something very normal (probably is)

[sand delta]

From my notes, HF 8Mhz can reach up to 2000 nmi though, odd that the one half-issue would happen.

[junior moat]

hm, maybe I can find out where the receivers are located, let me see

[sand delta]

https://forums.ybw.com/index.php?threads/testing-your-mf-hf-dsc-using-yaddnet.495570/

To see where the receiver stations are I have a list on the Facebook group for Offshore SSB radio and email

https://www.facebook.com/groups/offshoressbradioandemail/

[junior moat]

facebook 🥴

[sand delta]

http://vhf.dxview.org/

Hold on

What the hell is this.

[junior moat]

ehm, the more I zoom around the more colorful stuff appears

[sand delta]

VHF Direction Finding weird stuff.

I doubt it's all VHF traffic though.

[velvet rain]

Seems limited to around 144 MHz.

[sand delta]

hmm

[velvet rain]

Is marine VHF even packet-based?

[junior moat]

so these J3E TP happen every now and then, but definitely not very often, and often it's quirky stuff... here for example we have another one of our MMSI 999999999 ships

[sand delta]

Don't believe so.

[velvet rain]

Ahh, I see, it's basically a tool for trying to determine how far you can reach with packet radio with an arbitrary number of hops at the current time.

So just amateur radio stuff.

[junior moat]

only other time M.Julie sent such messages in the past 360 days was in June when communicating with another ship, not coast station

but okay, interesting but on the other hand .. probably the radio guy was just messing around, probably not something they did because they wanted to tell Estonia-Radio that there is a yacht laying explosives 😄

[whole thunder]

im not sure this page gives really all results tbh or did you make more progress with it the last days?

[sand delta]

Testing it on ships I've been on, it seems to cover those alright.

[velvet rain]

Seems to be very dependent on where and when volunteers upload

[sand delta]

Yea, true.

[whole thunder]

i figured that. i got lost the last days with something else tbh. just catching up

[junior moat]

it's just slow, but the search does seem to work reliably

[sand delta]

Do you remember the story about there being a Western European (who is Ukrainan) CEO who was bankrolling it?

[whole thunder]

yep... the birthday matchs with poroschenko?

i've read that lead IIRC

[sand delta]

heh.

[sand delta]

Yep.

[junior moat]

okay I cross-checked with marinetraffic can confirm M.Julie is sending the correct position also reported via AIS for that exact time

[elfin cradle]

Example on tracks.
http://www.hisutton.com/Lulea 1983.html

[velvet rain]

At least we know now what kind of explosives were used.
https://www.nationalarchives.gov.uk/education/families/time-travel-tv/introduction/chocolate-explosive/

[sand delta]

It does seem that it’s not always doing a weekly DSC test call though, naughty naughty.

[junior moat]

it's weird though I've not seen any other communication anywhere that included the lat/long

[whole thunder]

I've read the summary, thanks @vocal violet

According the NATO-activity in the area i remember that back in the days were also a lot of talks about P8's in the area. It was told something about submarines, Kaliningrad and manouvers.
I mean it's the baltic sea during conflict time, so doesn't have to be anything. Not sure if it's worth digging into it again

[junior moat]

maybe though it's just not captured always

[sand delta]

Oliver's track of the Minerva Julie just has it going backwards and forwards from Europe to Russia for the entire year.

[sand delta]

But certainly.

[elfin cradle]

I would want to know why they think this.
Atleast inspiration for Hersh, lol:

"Naval Service sources fear the Russians may have "pre-positioned charges" close to the cables which could be activated from the sky by their Tupolov Tu-142 ‘Bear’ bombers, which frequently fly exercises off the Irish coast."

20 Jul 2022
https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/arid-40921898.html

[next dirge]

Probably a time charter then

With eg Gazprom or possibly an oil trader

[sand delta]

According to PSC records

https://www.parismou.org/inspection-search/inspection-search

[junior moat]

mostly because of Yantar I guess ... plus the problem of the Irish is they have no military I guess 😉
https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2021/08/russian-spy-ship-yantar-loitering-near-trans-atlantic-internet-cables/

[sand delta]

The most recent inspection, it was chartered by "Petrokim Trading Middle East and Asia DMCC", the one before that "Trafigura Maritime Ventures Ltd" and the time before that when it got detained "Trafigura Maritime Ventures Ltd" again.

[rustic bay]

What is this from, please? I keep seeing this and don't know what it is

[junior moat]

@rustic bay http://www.yaddnet.org/

it's amateur radio people logging marine radio communications (which their receivers capture) into a database

here's the search form, but be warned it's really slow http://www.yaddnet.org/pages/php/search_index.php?

[next dirge]

Petrokim seems shady at least

[sand delta]

https://www.arabnews.com/node/1739086/middle-east

Petrokim is apparently an associate of Turkey's Petkim.

https://pro-justice.org/en/justice/fincen-files-how-a-sanctions-trail-led-from-syria-to-malta.html

If it's the same Petrokim, then it has associations with people who are high up in Maltese politics, and did business with Assad lol.

[whole thunder]

we nearly gave up in the beginning after I found it. At least i did. Good that you are here Peter 😉

[junior moat]

I just start a couple searches, and then go make more coffee, or take a shower or something 😉 come back when results are in

[next dirge]

Publicly available information takes me no further than Panama and director lawyers or your typical appointed reps

Looks to be associated with Petkim though

[junior moat]

@sand delta do you have an idea what UNID UNK could be.. ships like to send some freq information there

[sand delta]

Unidentified, Unknown.

[junior moat]

so just calling the void ? 👻

ah probably the radio person typed a wrong MMSI or something

[sand delta]

0093133400 is a coast station because it starts with 0.

0093133400 but there's nothing here for it: https://www.itu.int/mmsapp/CoastStation/list

00 is a coast radio station

931 is the MID, but it isn't one. No country has an MID of 931, they stop at like 700 and something.

[rocky wolf]

about the guy bank rolling. So CIA intercepted Russian communications (or.. someone did and CIA is channeling it to not void any potential sources of that information). Yet Sweden is named as probably "first base" for trying to rent vessels.

Oleg Deripaska owns numerous companies in Poland, Russia and Sweden. Has anybody looked into him? "Active in politics" doesn't necessarily mean you've been a politician, could mean "a doer"

[velvet rain]

@sand delta How does the drifting thing work from an operational perspective? Is it an active procedure by the crew or literally just doing nothing except remaining vigilant?

[rocky wolf]

Oleg Deripaska owns Aluminum company Kubal in Sundsvall, Sweden

[sand delta]

Birthday not the 26 September.

[rocky wolf]

https://polishnews.co.uk/russia-ukraine-oleg-deripaska-the-property-of-the-russian-oligarch-in-poland-where-is-it-hidden-and-in-which-companies/

[sand delta]

"used to be active in politics" seems to be the same source as the mentioned birthday. So we cannot cherry pick.

[sand delta]

Just keep a proper lookout, officer has to be on the bridge, additional lookouts in darkness and in restricted visibility, keep the engines ready for operation, etc, etc.

[stark palm]

Does anyone have any information on specifically the US investigation (or claims that they are) of Nord Stream?

[rocky wolf]

Deripaska would probably meet this criteria (very close to Kreml). The 26th could just be a part of a narrative which depicts "the Ukrainian connection" (perhaps a weak theory)

[velvet rain]

And wind/currents are doing the rest?

[sand delta]

There are navigation publications called the Admiralty Tidal Stream Atlas that show you the direction of the tidal streams in relation to HW/LW in a certain major port in that area.

So should they want to, they'd have an idea of where they'd be drifting too.

[sand delta]

Of course all relevant Putin puppets, from military to private sector are probable. But that has nothing to do with the report about the circling name of a Ukrainian businessman who has been active in politics and having his birthday on 26 September. With the same argument we could cherry pick just the birthday and make a list of all Russian businessmen having birthday on 26 September; does not make any sense.

[velvet rain]

Are tidal streams a significant factor in the Baltic Sea?

[sand delta]

Nope.

^ Correct.

[velvet rain]

So wind would be the dominant factor?

[rocky wolf]

There is another oligarch with his birthday on the 26th, Aleksej Mordasjov (but doesn't seem to have been active in politics)

[sand delta]

https://msi.nga.mil/api/publications/download?key=16694491/SFH00000/Pub194bk.pdf&type=view

[rocky wolf]

https://ru-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/Мордашов,_Алексей_Александрович?_x_tr_sl=ru&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp

[sand delta]

It's difficult to see it being a Russian oligarch.

Don't you get it? It is the same source that is saying {Ukrainian, businessman, birthday 26 September, formerly active in politics}. Mordasjov may be or may not be a suspect, but not because of his birthday. My uncle has his birthday on 26 September and is a businessman 😮

[velvet rain]

Thank you! Sorry for the dumb questions, I'm playing around with the Minerva Julie AIS data and am trying to understand what I'm seeing 😄

[sand delta]

Not, it's fine https://msi.nga.mil/api/publications/download?key=16694491/SFH00000/Pub195bk.pdf&type=view If and when they go up further north.

[sand delta]

https://www.bsh.de/DE/DATEN/Vorhersagen/Stroemungen/stroemungen_node.html

[rocky wolf]

I might have missed something here, who is claiming it's the same source?

[sand delta]

SZ.

One moment, I'll get the link.

https://archive.is/fNHyc

Source being stuff circulating in Scandinavian secret services.

[elfin cradle]

The underwater streams goes mainly from west to east in baltic sea. The salt water from the atlantic goes to the sweet baltic etc.
iirc the wind is from east to west

[rocky wolf]

Thanks @sand delta, missed this one. But circling in intel services might be "he is a theory" (could be him) etc..

[sand delta]

Given the apparent source though, that isn’t to say it’s the same Ukrainian CEO of Western European company that funded the Polish Ukrainian company that Germany might think it is.

So we can’t add the Western European company CEO element to the Scandinavian suspect description, nor add the Scandinavian details to the German suspect description. At least not for certain.

[vocal violet]

The way I wrote that in the summary is that it is very speculative info and all it tells us is that intel services looked into him at least back in the day, but there's no confirmation if he ever got investigated or if he still is

[rocky wolf]

I mean, the longer this story is in focus.. the more likely disinfo will be mixed into it. Someone with credible background but not active claiming X Y Z or insinuating certain facts that "might be the case" etc..

[velvet rain]

@sand delta, are those spikes in speed normal for drifting or does that imply that they turned on the engines frequently?

[sand delta]

No, they shouldn’t be drifting around the place at 10 knots.

[velvet rain]

Okay, good, so I'm not going insane 😄

[sand delta]

They must have turned their engines on, definitely

The tide might move you that fast in the Solent, but the tide isn’t that strong in the Baltic

[velvet rain]

Rate of turn also has some pretty big spikes.

[sand delta]

Someone shared a video of it

[elfin cradle]

imo is that the Andromeda story is just a red herring and the people that rented is totally unrelated. And German news papers wants to publish first best RUMINT as long its against Ukraine *just look how they framed all the headlines as "pro-ukrainan group". However, we are not looking for opinions.

[elfin cradle]

https://dbmee.breadmen.ac/mj.mp4

[sand delta]

Come to think of it, they aren’t drifting

Well they are a bit

But they are also just slow steaming up and down.

[velvet rain]

Seems like they are drifting except for some corrections in positions.

[plain escarp]

watch the angle/corner how they move, it's constant same "v" shape

[rocky wolf]

I my mind this is what plays right now (big picture)

1. Sweden was the first place for the "team" to try to find a vessel in. Small country (have we looked into what marinas are close to the area of the blast?)
2. The team rented a boat in Rostock. "Andromeda".
   6 people crew. At least one Bulgarian passport as well as Ukrainian passports. Possibly well made (looking professional). Left the boat uncleaned despite renting-policy to clean it out. Explosive residue on table.
3. Hersh pushing NATO/US involvement. Facts don't add up, anonymous source. Known for an anti-US stance prior to this
4. Russian disinfo immediately on blast regarding who's to blame. NATO/US. Biden-video saying he will put an end to NS

Ukrainian businessowners (two) in Poland, Ukrainian fake passports and Ukrainian former politican bank rolling the operation?

I don't know.

[velvet rain]

Which implies intent.

[sand delta]

Yes, definitely

[sand delta]

Two Bulgarian passports actually.

But would be interesting to look at Swedish boat charter places in Scania. But likely a dead end without more reporting on the Swedish side

[plain escarp]

only thing i found really odd about the movement, first few days they go over 1 bombing spot later over 2nd

[velvet rain]

They are almost always going back to the explosion sites, aren't they?

[sand delta]

and by the end of it, they’ve went over the third.

[plain escarp]

they are in some way..

[velvet rain]

absolute rate of turn

[sand delta]

The inertia you’ve built up after drifting in one direction with your VLCC for a couple dozen miles isn’t going to immediately stop like that when whatever tidal current/wind there is switchs direction

[vocal violet]

Is it even known the supposed failed rental was in Scania?

[sand delta]

Those turns have to be deliberate, at least using their bow thruster to spin around if not sailing at that point

[sand delta]

Nope, we’ve next to no reporting on the Ukrainians trying to rent a boat in Sweden angle that came from Russian intelligence.

[velvet rain]

That makes the whole thing orders of magnitude more suspicious.

[vocal violet]

Yeah, that's what I know, that it was supposedly in Sweden and it hadn't been narrowed it down anything further

That's why I was surprised you mentioned Scania

Like it could've been in Gotland for instance, all assuming it happened which considering the source is a Russian coms interception it's quite

[elfin cradle]

The first 3 days they go exactly to where the second pipline is for later drift backwards.

[vocal violet]

The triangles are the explosion locations I believe?

[elfin cradle]

Yes.

[rocky wolf]

Scania is the southern part of Sweden closest to the site.. but if I were to plan the operation I would not use one of those Marinas but instead probably one in Stockholm and crawl down the coast to the site. Everybody's going to be looking at Marinas in Scania immediately after the blast

[vocal violet]

I'll add this picture to the summary

[plain escarp]

yeah exactly what i ment, then check when they go over the 2nd? thought that was the last 3 days

[vocal violet]

Yeah, I am too much of a geography need to know where Scania is and get why it is suspicious 😅

[sand delta]

#1072947857654554624 message

I think the one issue with the Swedish element is that we have nothing besides the one report of “an attempt to rent a yacht in Sweden”

With Andromeda we had Rostock, we had rented, we eventually got 15m, capacity of 12, etc etc.

[vocal violet]

Yeah, exactly

Even though there's still more questions than answers with Andromeda (or with Minerva Julie), at least with those ones there's some meat

The idea of the Swedish failed rental is closer to Seymour Hersh reporting than genuine theory as of now

[rocky wolf]

Why Sweden? Something entailed in the answer of that. Some might say it has a long coastal line and in the Baltics with plenty of Marinas. However, they started out here Sweden and every movement, especially border crossings risks the operation or identification

[elfin cradle]

Sadly there is hundreds of small Marinas in Scania, and we mainly rent out privatly not via any rental agencies.

And I see a huge logistic problems. If they rent a boat, will they go to Poland/Germany and pick up the hundres of kg of explosives?
Its a bit sus if they would bring almost 1t of explosives in a truck and take it on the ferry to Sweden.

[sand delta]

Also why did it fail? Did it fail because Russia found out about it, told the Swedes and they intervened? If that’s the case, then Sweden knows exactly what the story is.

Unless we’re saying the attempt failed because Boris’s debit card was low on funds.

[rocky wolf]

There are some marinas but we are not your typical "rent a boat" country like perhaps Germany is. Most marinas are populated by private boats and sure you can rent a boat in Sweden for sure.. but a Bavaria 50 or equivalent.. It's going to be a couple of places running down our eastern coastline if you're looking for access to the Baltics

[rocky wolf]

What if it failed because the renting company thought "something's up" and the group signaled back to RU and the Swede's caught it but revealing that they caught this would narrow down HOW they got this information.. hence the CIA communicating it

[sand delta]

The renting company gets paid, surely they don’t care?

[elfin cradle]

If I rented a boat and transport a lot of diving gear (they must decompress for aleast 3-8h times 3 sites) and transport almost 1ton of explosives, it would have get a "motor" Yatch and not a sailboat. Something like this but maybe not that expensive.
https://www.boataround.com/boat/alena-56-malizia

[rocky wolf]

Not as likely in Sweden as other European countries. Especially if it's a Swede of an older generation, perhaps remembering submarine breaches like Russian U-137 and equivalent. They have a quite good eye for suspicious people

[rocky wolf]

Also, our tax agency and government agencies are typically going to throw down on a company.. let's say the group of 5 men and 1 woman wanted to pay in cash.. or perhaps in a foreign currency ?

I can imagine several scenarios where someone would be suspicious of a group like that wanting to rent a boat. Especially if they are not the typical renter and if let's say they wanted to pay in cash

[elfin cradle]

Nobody (hyperbolic) uses cash here. (one of the countries with least cash use)

[rocky wolf]

Cash would also mean the need to exchange currencies and perhaps receive questions about where the money is from

[elfin cradle]

I had not used cash for 5-6 years until I moved to The Hauge.

[rocky wolf]

Swedish ?

[sand delta]

Swedish boat charters be like: “Zeig mir deine Papiere! Zeig mir deine Papiere! Zeig mir deine Papiere!”

More strict than a Nazi checkpoint guard.

[elfin cradle]

Jaa.

[velvet rain]

When you go all the way to Sweden to blow up a pipeline but only realise last minute that you forgot your passport. Hate it when that happens.

[sand delta]

Plot aborted due to detection by Detective Anders, pride of Scania Charters Police Department.

[dire canyon]

Meine Papiere, ich habe sie verloren. (someone must get that reference)

[rocky wolf]

No I wouldn't say that but I would say that they might have run into a situation where they don't match the typical renter, or that September is not a typical boat renting month (June, July, August are summer months.. September can be very cold) and perhaps they wanted to pay in cash.. perhaps in foreign currency like EUR (maybe they assumed Sweden accepts EUR in payment because of our membership in the EU).

[sand delta]

Jesus Christ, it’s Jason Bourne

[velvet rain]

Have we just completely merged Sweden and Germany now? 😄

[sand delta]

Surely you’d just try another charter place at that point?

Remarkably lazy secret agents.

[true barn]

Vlådimyr Igorsson‘s passport raised suspicion

[rocky wolf]

Or abort and get out of the country depending on the situation. They have to be aware that if the renting firm has aroused suspicion of their activity that the whole operation could be at jeopardy.

[sand delta]

Ivana Bombnordstreamsson too.

[velvet rain]

You've gotta be incredibly bad at your job to mess up a boat rental that badly.

[sand delta]

Sure, I suppose it just underlines that we can make no assumptions about the nature of this Swedish element.

[elfin cradle]

If the rental agency are so suspicious of them that The Swedish Security Service is informed, they must been very sus.

[sand delta]

We just know that Russian intelligence chatter says that Ukrainians tried to rent a boat in Sweden, according to the U.S.

[rocky wolf]

And which intelligence service do we know to frequently fuck up badly? 😁

[sand delta]

The German one 🫣

[velvet rain]

Wait, we have one of those?

[sand delta]

Trots op MIVD/AIVD

[sand delta]

My wild guesses: Sailing yacht might be better alibi and safer because more serious people would do sailing instead of motor yachting -> less likely police control? And the Sweden thing: Redundancy: They wanted to have an alternative in case something with the German plan/ boat might fail? Now with more details coming to light intel/investigator draw the connection of Swedish and German rental (plans)?

[junior moat]

BND best of class 🏅

[sand delta]

Our original guess was a Motor Yacht actually

The Mola Galeon.

https://www.mola-yachtcharter-ostsee.de/Yacht/Yacht.php?Yacht=117

[sand delta]

Why? It's much smaller

[sand delta]

#1072947857654554624 message

Aric was speaking to sources he had, and that was their suggestion, I suppose.

[red ridge]

Wow that's a great visualization. Did you compute the median/percentiles just to check these are not outliers linked to approximative location ?

[sand delta]

Ah okay, since Wieck/Wiek

The investigators didn't even know it was the Andromeda until Oliver/Aric/(perhaps myself a little 🥹) identified it and gave them the video they used.

The video they used in the report was identified here.

[sand delta]

They investigated the boat in January. When did Oliver/Aric tell it?

Sorry!

The journalists didn't know it was the Andromeda.

🫣 I'm a complete moron, apologies.

[elfin cradle]

Feels too small. The amount of explosives (if we should trust the German explosion company) they would have needed around 300kg of explosives. The volume of the explosives would almost be 1 square cubic meter. Where fit that?
And then you need a couple of diving gears, spare tubes, etc.

This is a post from a diving forum where they dive at 80m for 25-30 min, using rebreathers and heliox (standard for those depths, nothing special as Hersh tried to paint it as) and they have 3h of decompressing at different depts, and even with 2 extra "bailout" divers it goes wrong. And this is just casual diving without doing any work, moving explosives, etc and only 30min.
https://scubaboard.com/community/threads/incident-on-80m-avg-30-min-bt-dive.548043/

Even a 15m/50 feet long sailboat as the Aurora would be super cramped with the explosives, 6 ppl, and a couple of diving sets.

[junior moat]

quick super-random update on our favourite tanker the Minerva Julie .. yesterday decided to try and enter the Mediterranean ... quickly peeked in, decided otherwise and is now chilling just outside Gibraltar

this ship business stuff is weird

[sand delta]

Absolutely.

[sand delta]

you mean Andromeda, not "Aurora"?!

I mention the Mola Galeon because, it seems increasingly clear that the German journalists knew surprisingly little when they pushed the original article.

They got the Wieck wrong because the Wieck they chose doesn't have enough draft for these vessels.

[elfin cradle]

Correct.

[velvet rain]

You can't really see it on the graph, but the peaks are pretty wide.

Comprising many points each

[sand delta]

They needed us to find pictures and videos of the Andromeda to finally identify it.

They did not know of the existence of the video/pdf until after publication.

[vocal violet]

That's interesting, since Russian tankers have been transferring oil to other tankers to then take it to China in the strait of Gibraltar

[sand delta]

Which can be explained by the "the NYT pushed their editor into pulling the trigger a bit early"

But it also means that the German journalists are, to be polite, a bit shit at their job.

[vocal violet]

It's worth watching if another tanker approaches them coming from there and then this one goes back to China and MJ back to Russia

[junior moat]

ah wow

[vocal violet]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-03-06/large-amounts-of-russia-oil-still-being-switched-off-spain-coast

They also do this in Greece near Kalamata

[red ridge]

Ok ok, that's significant then. I will try to gather wind, currents and waves data to have a clearer view of the situation in this time frame but clearly we shouldn't expect more than 3knots of drifting speed in such areas

[vocal violet]

So if we see the Minerva Julie is taking part of these actions, well, that'd be something

[sand delta]

On the topic of Russian oil off Spain, there is this video from a ship from summer 2022:

https://twitter.com/reconnxx/status/1512013031336648717

[vocal violet]

The fact that's an Andalusian lisp makes me lose it so hard lmao

[velvet rain]

My original thought why I started looking into the data is because I suspect you could differentiate drifting from active propulsion by the magnitude of the angle between the heading of the ship and the direction of its velocity vector.

[sand delta]

or likewise, just on the topic of Russian ships getting told to go do one, here's one from Georgia: https://twitter.com/olex_scherba/status/1497975994015227907

olexander scherba🇺🇦 (@olex_scherba)

A spirited exchange between a Russian ship & a Georgian maintenance ship.

• You Russian?

• Yes.

• We refuse you refueling.

• Who speaks?

• Assistant captain from Georgia. “Russian ship, go fuck yourself”

• But we run on fumes.

• Ok, then row, fucking invaders!
  #RussiaGoHome

Likes

48635

Retweets

14085

▶ Play video

Twitter · Feb 27, 2022, 4:44 PM

Poor Russian radio operators 😏

[vocal violet]

Actually I'll self correct, on a second listen it's more of an Eastern European accent rather than Spanish

[limber hinge]

I live aboard a sailboat boat and completely agree the Bavaria is not a suitable dive boat. The sub placing explosives makes more sense.

The yacht makes sense if someone needs to go out there to activate the explosives. Maybe start a timer? For that it is perfect. Comfortable live aboard for a while, generally more comfortable at sea than a power boat, looks just like any other recreational sailboat and will not draw attention.

Or a decoy to draw attention away from the facts, obfuscation and shift blame.

The explosive residue? Either left there intentionally or maybe the characters doing the sail handled other explosives and had it ob their cloths or work gear.

Another point, had they used the yacht for this kind of diving there is a wonderful chance te would have damaged something. Made scratches while dragging heavy stuff around. Stuff shifts and slides even when relatively calm. The charter company complained about not clean, they would have screamed about damage.

[rocky wolf]

+1 for Swedish counterparts

[elfin cradle]

Here is a pattern of Ship-to-ship transfer of illegal Russian oil. Looks far more erratic than Minerva Julie..

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F_DLse373cQ

https://maritime-executive.com/article/spain-blocks-maersk-tanker-over-sts-transfer-involving-ex-russian-ship

[vocal violet]

Yeah, I have that in the summary. If the explosive used was RDX, then it would have been 300kg per explosion, which would be 166L of Volume. SZ is now reporting on a different, more powerful explosive

[rocky wolf]

Maybe the diving crew thought they were performing legitimate activities ? Fake passports would speak against this but we don't know how many they delivered to the renting firm or any other details.

They could be bound by legal agreements which would jeopardise their livelihood if they spoke out

[vocal violet]

Those ones however were trying to dock in Ceuta I believe, which would add more strangeness to their behaviour

But I need to see what it was doing in front of Gibraltar, the track that I see in marientraffic.com doesn't tell me much

[junior moat]

Hm it was being awkwardly followed by some small tugboat and then decided to leave the mediterranean again

[deft stone]

Dont worry. We're used to it

[rocky wolf]

I want to stress this again.
Possible scenario:

Boat renting company in Sweden meets crew of six with Bulgarian and Ukrainian passports wanting to rent a boat paying in EUR, cash.

[sand delta]

The Bulgarian passport element is the German case, but go on.

[velvet rain]

Oh, sorry, I forgot to mention that the speed over ground is self-reported by the vessel over AIS. I'm not doing a derivative of the position.

[elfin cradle]

Sadly that the horrible Greenpeace only shows one of their 40 samples, and it really dont say anything as the low levels could be contamination from the nearby WW2 ammo dumping site.

https://www.greenpeace.de/publikationen/greenpeace_ergebnisse_laboruntersuchungen_nordstream.pdf

"Does this explosive come from the destruction of the pipeline?

Rather not. The fact that we have found some explosives and explosives-type compounds such as TNT, hexogen (RDX) and aminodinitrotoluene (ADNT) actually corresponds to what is known about the Baltic Sea. Ammunition has been lying on the seabed there since World War II. As soon as we set off, we suspected that the explosion in the pipeline could have caused warfare agents to swirl around and float up again. Even if this was apparently not the case at the explosion site we examined, more research is urgently needed: where ammunition dumps are located in the Baltic Sea is only insufficiently mapped."
https://www.greenpeace.de/biodiversitaet/meere/meeresschutz/greenpeace-aktivistinnen-untersuchen-folgen-pipeline-explosionen

[sand delta]

I think you got the thing about the explosions wrong in the summary

[vocal violet]

Feel happy to correct me, it was all under the assumption of RDX being used, which is far from confirmed

[rocky wolf]

It's September, quite cold and many days are windy/rainy. The crew wants to rent a couple of specific boats. Insists to pay in cash ("Don't you accept Euros, you're in the EU?). Wants to rent the vessel for 3 weeks. Strange, given the month of year.. weather and nationalities..

[vocal violet]

I'd be very surprised if some operation that was planed in Sweden didn't know about SEKs

But then worse has happened

[junior moat]

thought we agreed on Semtex 😉

[rocky wolf]

The German case, strange if the crew wanted to rent in Sweden but "got out". Strange that the Germans say it was by accident that they discovered this. Sounds like transforming intel into operational info

[vocal violet]

I missed that!

[sand delta]

I think the 25 kg meant, that it would be enough to damage it, but they used in fact much more, about 300 kg, btw. cannot find the 25 kg in the SZ article, where was it ?

[vocal violet]

No, the 25kg was from an assessment from back in Friday

Still, as they are saying here, semtex is more likely so I'll study that and change it

[sand delta]

Couldn't the Swedish angle also be a batshit theory put out into the world by Russia?

With the purpose of muddying the waters so much that it ends up winning the information battle.

I think the SZ article is wrong written in that regard, btw.

[velvet rain]

Would they not... you know... try to book the boat in advance?

[vocal violet]

While I look into Semtex, is there someone with some marinetraffic plan to look into MJ's history near Gibraltar?

[junior moat]

#1072947857654554624 message

I just did

[vocal violet]

Ok, and I saw that and I had already forgot about it

Jesus what a day am I having

[sand delta]

The explosive (other than nuclear 😄 ) with highest TNT equivalent that I can find is ONC (=2.1). So there is no way 25 kg unknown explosive equals 500 kg TNT.

[vocal violet]

Now what would be interesting is seeing which ships approached to it

[elfin cradle]

A shaped charge of 1kg could damage the pipeline, but it would just be a leaking hole. To throw 50m pipe up to 150m away, you need a couple of hundreds of kg.

https://sprengtechnik.de/sprengung-nordstream/

[vocal violet]

Something that needs to be considered is if there was some pressure inside the pipes, that would have added to the explosion

But I believe they were empty?

[elfin cradle]

No, they were filled with gas of 117 bar.

[sand delta]

Not empty 😄

[vocal violet]

Right, the gas that bubbled, duh

[junior moat]

'inside' the mediterranean it wasn't approached by any other ships .. it was followed around for like almost 2-3 hours and left again .. I can check if it was approached by any ships outside in the Atlantic

[vocal violet]

So the question I have now is if the change in pressure from the rupture would have contributed to the explosion or even been the main driver

[rocky wolf]

Maybe, nothing has been done in Sweden on that angle. I'm going to stress some journalist contacts I have about this. I want to know what the "word on the street is"

[vocal violet]

Yeah, I'd appreciate that because a Oil tanker going to sit casually off Gibraltar makes it look a bit fishy

[elfin cradle]

The 25kg confusion is maybe because semtex is delivered in batches of 25kg?

"Semtex comes from the military sector, but has also found its way into the commercial sector and is used for blasting work - the price per kilo is around 100 euros if small quantities are purchased. For ease of use, plastic explosives are commonly supplied in 500 gram blocks in 25 kg batches." Sauce - sprengtechnik

[true barn]

some more pipelines to bust 🙈

[vocal violet]

Nah, it was in an assessment that we did back on Friday suggesting that 25kg of RDX would be enough to blow the pipe

[sand delta]

The weather in Gib is pretty stable

No reason they couldn't get in anyways.

[rocky wolf]

Also strange that if the Marina spoke to intel service before they spoke to police or journalists after that.

[vocal violet]

Heh, those pipes also have a lot of geopolitical drama, and Spanish-Algerian relations aren't precisely great, and Morocco is forbidden to use the gas that goes from Algeria to Spain too

[sand delta]

Worth a try.

[junior moat]

it's still hanging around there, hasn't made any progress
arrived on Feb 20th did some dancing around, and as of now still stalling somewhere off the coast of Portugal

[vocal violet]

Yup, I see it there currently, that's why I ask if there's any boats that have approached at it recently-ish

[rocky wolf]

What if Germany's intel source is disinfo? And what is circulating is just an echo chamber ? disinfo fed to several agencies

[sand delta]

Worth noting that the Minerva Julie is going to be too hot to handle for a while.

[junior moat]

I don't immediately see anything fishy yet having happened, maybe it tried to get to the Black Sea itself, was denied, and is now waiting for some DarkFleet tanker from russia to arrive ?

[sand delta]

That's true for all intel "leaks".

[vocal violet]

Worth watching over to see if anything approaches it

[sand delta]

I'd suggest that the Minerva Julie is going to be on its best behaviour.

[elfin cradle]

I have one more nail in the coffin to kill the P-8 sonarbouy theory. The sonar signal would not make the explosives go off at the exact same time. It would be some differences due the distance between them.

[velvet rain]

Note that the pressure is not constant along the length of the pipeline

[vocal violet]

Yeah, agreed, we have to have the base hypothesis that the MJ is innocent of any wrongdoing. But I'm going to be instantly suspicious of an oil tanker sitting near the Strait of Gibraltar

[sand delta]

However, the German story has the most evicence so far (the whole operation could be a false flag etc. of course anyway)

[sand delta]

Worth noting that it went in and then back out of the Gibraltar TSS.

[elfin cradle]

The Andromeda story is actually the Russians pretending to be CIA, which financed a pro-ukranian group to make it look like a russian false-flag operation!

[sand delta]

https://webapp.navionics.com/

[sand delta]

instead of a Russian false-false-false flag it could simply be a false-flag by America 😄

[pallid moat]

there's another 2012 Cruiser 50 that looks like it was once owned by Mola, judging by this picture (name has matching font, Mola logo below)

for reference, 4th photo in this album: https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/details/ships/shipid:141193/mmsi:211560760/imo:0/vessel:HERA#Photos

The MMSI is 211560760 according to Marine Traffic, if that's any help at all https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/details/ships/shipid:141193/mmsi:211560760/imo:0/vessel:HERA

[sand delta]

Nice.

Not on the ITU database: https://www.itu.int/mmsapp/ShipStation/list

[red ridge]

Sonar speed is 1.5km/s in water (https://oceanexplorer.noaa.gov/explorations/sound01/background/acoustics/acoustics.html#). Do you have a source for the simultaneous explosion ?

[elfin cradle]

Gonna try to find where I read it. I think it was whatever agency Denmark has for seismography.

[vocal violet]

Would a 60kg Semtex explosion be detected by a seismograph? (Yes, I'm sure that if the explosion is next door it would detect it, but I'm talking about the tens of kms minimum to the closest seismographer)

[pallid moat]

excuse the noob question - how is it that the Hera is visible in Marine Traffic but Andromeda is not?

[sand delta]

Whoever owns it decided to install AIS.

Class B, most likely.

[pallid moat]

Ah I see

[junior moat]

https://www.snsn.se/stora/Events_20220926.php

[sand delta]

Class B being the (optional) bare bones version of AIS for non-SOLAs ships who want to be able to broadcast their position. It's cheaper.

[sand delta]

position tracking is not mandatory for this ship size

[sand delta]

https://www.geus.dk/om-geus/nyheder/nyhedsarkiv/2022/sep/seismologi

[sand delta]

Only vessels over 300 GT in international voyages and over 500 GT in domestic voyages need AIS (Class A).

The Bavaria Cruiser 50 has GT of 30 or so.

[stark palm]

Just making sure one last time, has the US ever announced ANYTHING regarding an investigation of their own into the NS blasts? All I can find is them pointing at the European investigations

[sand delta]

Why would they do that :-D?

[elfin cradle]

iirc sprengtechnik claims that 50kg is the lowest limit for seismography.

[sand delta]

regarding the NS explosion?

[sand delta]

https://www.wsj.com/articles/in-nord-stream-probe-german-investigators-search-boat-that-may-have-carried-explosives-379505f9

"U.S. officials are investigating the possibility that a pro-Ukrainian group was responsible for last year’s attack on the Nord Stream natural-gas pipeline in the Baltic Sea, a senior U.S. official said, while Germany said its investigators have searched a ship in connection with the sabotage."

"The assessment by U.S. intelligence that a pro-Ukrainian group could have been responsible isn’t definitive, the senior official said. But it adds to the growing sense among investigators in the U.S. and Europe that neither Russian-government nor pro-Russian operatives were behind the sabotage."

"The U.S. official said that investigators had no indication that the alleged perpetrators were linked to the government of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and that U.S. intelligence officials are focused on potential nonstate actors as the possible culprits."

[stark palm]

This is all based on stuff from the European investigations though. Not a hands on US investigation

[sand delta]

That's all I can find, but that's probably just spooks looking at EU intel, yep.

[limber hinge]

AIS CLASS DISTINCTION
Class B transmits at 2W, giving a range of between 8-10 miles, whilst Class A transmits at 12.5W giving a much larger range

To confuse things even more many recteational boaters install RECIEVE ONLY AIS units, so they can see others but themselves remain dark.

[subtle finch]

Has anyone read this statement from the deputy chief editor of "Die Zeit"?

"The route of the freighter [Minerva Julie] has been known to the authorities for a long time, we have asked about it several times. As far as I know, there is no evidence of involvement, despite months of investigation."
(https://twitter.com/holger_stark/status/1633465560175636482)

So for the german authorities the Minerva Julie theories are off the table or they are not telling the truth...

Holger Stark (@holger_stark)

@hmtillack @fleetmon @Georg_Heil Die Route des Frachters ist den Behörden seit langem bekannt, wir haben mehrfach danach gefragt. Nach meinem Stand gibt es trotz monatelangen Ermittlungen keine Hinweise auf eine Beteiligung. Deinen letzten Satz verstehe ich zugegeben nicht ganz, lieber @hmtillack.

Twitter · Mar 8, 2023, 1:51 PM

[elfin cradle]

Nah, forget it. I read wrong thing.

[stark palm]

Not so much off the table as nothing they can prove that they are willing to share with the press. It could be that it is not involved, but them not sharing it with the press isn't proof.

[sand delta]

I mean they shared with the press/him that they did not find evidence against Minerva Julie. At least, that is more than just "we don't share this information". The other possibility is, that Holger Stark has poorly expressed himself.

[pure finch]

There is a possibility that the crew on the Minerva Julie were not in on the operation.

Perhaps the Minerva Julie was there by pure coincidence and the Andromeda was actively laying explosives in the same area at the same time... Maybe?

But, personally, if I was on the Andromeda and tasked with mining the pipeline - I don't think I would have considered the Minerva Julie hanging around in the same place, to be a pure coincidence.

[sand delta]

totally agree. I like Oliver's theory about the bombs transport with the Andromeda and the other equipment with Minerva Julie. Then, there would be no suspicious traces on Minerva Julie.

[boreal plover]

Trafigura are very big, but also have form for shady behaviour. Eg https://duckduckgo.com/?q=trafigura+scandal

[sand delta]

If we assume the nationality of the crew on the Minerva Julie to be (likely) Greek officers, with Ukrainians/Russians as well, as well as Filipino ratings, then that isn't the crack team you're bringing in on your conspiracy.

[velvet rain]

What exactly is displayed in the image here? Heatmap?

[sand delta]

I find it unlikely the were wittingly involved, but may have been used as a pawn through their owners to provide cover for something going on sub-surface.

Filipinos are not expensive to bribe 😄

If they knew this much, you'd be better off arranging a couple "accidents"

[subtle finch]

Is there just one known reason why the explosions had to take place where they did? If the Andromeda could do it alone just do it in close proximity to Lubmin or in a place with more shallow water...

[sand delta]

Oliver's theory that through the relationships of its owners, as well as the ability for the Russian government to mess with the loading schedules in the Russian ports, in order to create a reason for it to accidentally sit over the area, does makes sense.

The Minerva Julie is not being used as a diving platform.

It's freeboard, not least on a ballast voyage back from Rotterdam, would be substantial.

[pure finch]

@velvet rain heatmap of Minerva Julie's movement relative to cluster of leak sites.

Myself & @elfin cradle and others have been doing some analysis of the AIS. Minerva Julie stood out pretty much straight away (then we found that Finnish article from last year!)

If nothing else, it is an excuse to learn how to play with QGIS!
https://dbmee.breadmen.ac/mj.mp4

[velvet rain]

Thank you, I'm currently tinkering with a map myself, that's why I asked.

[sand delta]

maybe I do misunderstand you, but Oliver did actually say that Minerva Julie might have been used as diving platform.

Where?

I don't remember, but happy to be proven wrong.

Interview with German newspaper https://www.berliner-zeitung.de/politik-gesellschaft/datenspezialist-zu-nord-stream-anschlaegen-zeit-new-york-times-und-hersh-haben-viele-fehler-gemacht-li.326552

"Ich habe die Theorie, dass die „Minerva Julie“ als stabilere Plattform fürs Tauchen benutzt wurde." = "I have the theory that Minerva Julie was used as a more stable diving platform."

I will respectfully disagree with that.

If you wanted to dive off a merchant ship, you'd need something like this, with something like a "step out"

A step out being a place on the ship designed to have a really low freeboard.

Is the diver climbing down 15 metres of pilot ladder?

[pure finch]

One thing I'm having difficulty wrapping my head around is the idea of the submarine involvement - if this was a state actor, say deploying mines by submarine - I don't understand why they'd need elaborate support through a bunch of surface cut outs like a hired yacht and an oil tanker told to stall over the area.

[sand delta]

If this would be true: distraction. every day business of intel

[pure finch]

Would divers be necessary to place such mines? Would an elaborate surface operation be required in case of an emergency developing? etc.

[sand delta]

Assuming the steps of a pilot ladder are correctly spaced (31-35cm), and a quick count of them in that picture (about 30 of them) and then it doesn't even reach the water, you're talking 10m of ladder in the picture, and then conservatively 2-3 metres where the ladder in the picture doesn't cover, so add those together and the tanker's deck is 13m off the water, during a ballast voyage.

[pure finch]

@sand delta that was one of my initial thoughts - the MJ could distract, it could even be a comms platform. But, I don't know nearly enough about the practicalities of subs placing mines.

[sand delta]

The Olympic high dive is 10m.

(for context)

[void crow]

tgoo

[pure finch]

Re: using the MJ as a diving platform, one thing I wondered about was whether it was conceivable to enter/exit such a vessel via a sea chest or other opening below the surface. Would such a thing be practical/deniable.

[raw nexus]

There's a theory by a German? Expert that drones could place it, too

[sand delta]

Moon pool?

[pure finch]

Yup

[sand delta]

The MJ doesn't have one.

It's a highly specialised thing, and even operating it wrong can sink your ship.

[pure finch]

But what about sea chest openings - again, I have no idea: https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/Sea-chests-on-the-Njord-B-are-laser-scanned-prior-to-hull-closure-manufacture.jpg

[sand delta]

So a compartment without an air supply?

[pure finch]

It may not even be practical - again, just something I was wondering about.

[sand delta]

Ship's float based on the mass of air contained within their hull being more than the amount of water they displace.

[carmine summit]

I think the most obvious way this works is if the Julie dumps the explosives and the Andromeda divers pack them in place.

[sand delta]

If you open a hole in the ship under the water, and it has a direct path through the ship to push the water out, the pressure of the water at that point will push through the ship and displace the air.

[sand delta]

LOL, MJ came from highly monitored Rotterdam

And if there's nowhere for the air to go, when you open that hatch, the water will still squeeze the air (which is why when you see stuff flooding, the reason why there's always a small little thing of air on the roof)

[sand delta]

This moon pool only works because the compartment entrances are hilariously double-triple-quadruple air tight, and still, there's massive pumps pumping pressurised air into the moon pool space to prevent the water squeezing the air.

See C.

[sand delta]

yes, and moon pool would be quite overkill for calm baltics

[junior moat]

I'm currently doing some Google research on nordstream-related stuff. Can someone please develop a version of Google that will 100% never return anything related to Hersh, especially not cringy Chinese state media pushing his stuff ? 🥴 😵‍💫

[stark palm]

That's not what I said to them

[pure finch]

@sand delta thank you for in depth explanation on that! 🙂

[sand delta]

please correct me/them

[stark palm]

It was a long conversation and I said that it would make more sense to use the Minerva, or a RHIB (similar) from it as it would have a lot more space than a 50ft sailboat.

Basically that anything is a better diving platform with the reported amounts of explosives than a 50ft sailboat

[junior moat]

Berliner Zeitung is kinda borderline conspiracy theory friendly unfortunately. They also did a full interview with Hersh, and gave him a platform instead of hard questions

[sand delta]

Which RHIB does MJ have?

[sand delta]

It doesn't.

Okay but then is the RHIB an invention by Oliver 😄 ?

Well, one sec.

It might have an FRC.

Which is what you imagine a RHIB is.

But not quite.

I don't see why an RHIB-or FRC should be working better as diving platform than Andromeda. Addendum: I was thinking about sth different about FRC...

It has two davit launched lifeboats, one port, one starboard

It might not have an FRC even.

I can't see one and the IMO accepts ships using their lifeboats as rescue boats

An FRC I was mentioning looks like this:

[foggy mirage]

@vocal violet. I linked some reading material on Semtex a few days ago that includes the densities of various types. #1072947857654554624 message

[carmine summit]

@sand delta Its in general a highly improbable underwater demolition vessel. the bravaria on the other hand is a proven diving platform. why would it be involved if not to transport heavy stuff? you have to imagine people 80m underwater and a small vessel attempting to stay close to recover them.

[junior moat]

Found a video of Poroshenko caught in action : https://youtu.be/xuQ66NhSSpI?t=196 😏

[foggy mirage]

It looks like it has jet propulsion. That's a sweet looking little boat.

[sand delta]

They are good fun to drive around.

[foggy mirage]

Good for shallow water I bet.

[sand delta]

In terms off the Spiderman pointing meme, what's the possibility of Ukraine and Russia having differing plots to do the same thing, coincidentally at the same time.

[sand delta]

Yes.

[pure finch]

@sand delta lol my preferred galaxybrain conspiracy is that western intelligence learned of pre-positioned charges left by Russia, and then leaked that information to some motivated private individuals... who then blew those charges up.

[sand delta]

I was thinking about what Oliver has said (or what has been badly translated). If you are right, then I still do not think, that MJ would come with bombs from Rotterdam, too much risk. @sand delta's theory more likely.

[pure finch]

But on a somewhat more serious note, my suspicion is a lot of people wanted the pipe gone and possibly looked the other way, without getting directly involved.

[sand delta]

fwiw, my theory is another of Oliver's: https://oalexanderdk.substack.com/p/the-minerva-julie-unknowing-submarine

And if the Minerva Julie is cover for a sub to carry it out, then the obnoxiously Ukrainian Andromeda is just setting up a patsy to take the blame.

[pure finch]

I expressed a similar theory in the other place.

[sand delta]

Why did you call it the Mini Jerva?

[pure finch]

Oh just a silly joke to avoid libel 🙂

[junior moat]

unfortunately, while I like the theories, what I would love is if we had some more hard evidence in the not too distant future.

[pure finch]

totally agree

[sand delta]

same ™️

[foggy mirage]

I don’t know if this makes any difference as far as diving logistics are concerned, but the Bavaria Cruiser 50 has a generously sized fold down platform at the stern that sits mere centimeters off the water surface.

[sand delta]

OSINT cannot solve everything 😄

[pure finch]

OSINT cannot solve everything, but it can stop me from going to sleep at a reasonable hour - a lesson I learned again in recent weeks!

[next dirge]

I don’t want to be a joykill but that the MJ was just idling whilst waiting for new cargo is probably the most likely explanation, most accessible leads have been more effectively exhausted at this point

The best case scenario is that it would be obfuscating something else, and focus should rather be on what it was hypothetically obfuscating

[sand delta]

https://tenor.com/view/the-interview-james-franco-honey-dicked-upset-mad-gif-4106594

^ The German journalists.

[sand delta]

What do you mean?

[boreal plover]

(assume you're joking, but for anyone who doesn't know how to exclude terms from Google results: https://support.google.com/websearch/answer/2466433?hl=en )

[sand delta]

My bet is that we won't hear anything more.

At least through the German journalists.

Unless they know who the businessmen are, but can't name them because libel.

[sand delta]

what are you talking about? I dont get it.

[junior moat]

he accidentally replied to your instead of my message

[sand delta]

I do think we will hear a lot more... I mean pointing on Poroshenko, former Ukrainian president, will attract a lot digging reporters

[junior moat]

yeah I agree I think Poroshenko is going to be flooded in media requests starting tomorrow

interesting will be whether he will respond to any

[sand delta]

Actually, I change my prediction, you have a good point.

[boreal plover]

Re: davit-launched lifeboats -- I learned something there, after reading the El Faro accident report I thought it was mandatory they were replaced by free-fall boats. (I know virtually nothing about modern ships except what I learned from that doc 🙂 )

[sand delta]

Free-falls are death traps.

Fun fact, despite being required to regularly lower your lifeboat and maneuver it into the water, if you see a free-fall lifeboat, its crew probably have never launched in it.

Even during my training, we can't ride the free-fall lifeboat down because there's too high of a risk you'll paralyse yourself.

[foggy mirage]

One of those things in life that you never do twice.

[junior moat]

by the way since we're doing a round of somewhat unverifiable theories anyways ...
😉
what do you think of russian vessel Bakhtemir coming over to the Baltic Sea from Murmansk in April 2021 just to visit the exact location of the later explosion at 4 a.m. in the night with solid cloud cover ?
https://twitter.com/PeterDunn_OSINT/status/1629968675213135875

Peter Dunn (@PeterDunn_OSINT)

russian vessel Bakhtemir making a visit to the later rupture location in the middle of the night on Apr 23rd 2021 (shortly before Cherskiy starts the pipe-laying work there)

Bakhtemir left Kaliningrad on Apr 19th 2021

Twitter · Feb 26, 2023, 10:16 PM

[vocal violet]

Yup, I found it before but thanks for linking it!

[foggy mirage]

What was I thinking? You're on top of this.

[sand delta]

Interesting.

[pure finch]

Nice of a Russian vessel to leave its AIS on 👀

[sand delta]

2021-04-21 is quite early though

I'm sorry @junior moat but apparently you're a CIA plant: https://twitter.com/BillyBostickson/status/1630239055073153024/

[boreal plover]

you said "please invent a Google that can block results about Seymour Hersch".. ggl can already do that (and lots more)

[junior moat]

psst 🤫

[sand delta]

wrong one again buddy

[junior moat]

I said that ✋

[velvet rain]

I finally got my map working.

[sand delta]

See here.

[foggy mirage]

I made this meme on the 27th of Sep. I don't know if it has aged well, but here it is again anyway. Sorry.

[velvet rain]

Yellow is active navigation, red suspected drifting.

[boreal plover]

I wondered why most videos I've seen of FF lifeboat demos/tests are uncrewed XD

[pure finch]

Mapping has been fun with this - here's one where I overlaid AIS with a Sentinel 2 image:
https://dbmee.breadmen.ac/12 June Labels.mp4

[raw nexus]

The rescue ship?

[vocal violet]

I'm on top but I'm also blind as a mole and make a lot of mistakes, so I still appreciate it (:

[junior moat]

yes russia said back in the day they had to bring over 3 rescue ships for "security"

[tidal knoll]

@junior moat Flowering or non-flowering?

[boreal plover]

d'd'oh!! Sorry both, my bad /o\

[vocal violet]

What does the red square represent?

[raw nexus]

Your theory* they placed the rdx prior?

[velvet rain]

Oh, that's part of the basemap. The munitions dumping sites, I think.

[sand delta]

Military areas.

[vocal violet]

Didn't know there was military areas next to the NS explosion sites

[junior moat]

yeah... maybe right ? It's also what some Ukrainian sources suggested .. that these ships were there for nefarious reasons, not for "security"

[sand delta]

https://www.openstreetmap.org/way/383490935

[velvet rain]

The idea here is that when the ship is actively going somewhere, it will point in the direction it's moving. A drifting ship should be moving more sideways. The colour represents the angle between the course over ground (where the ship is moving) and the heading (where the ship is pointing).

[boreal plover]

pretty unlikely anything relevant would become OS - unless Greenpeace think it's in their remit (unlikely) - but haven't seen explosive tagging mentioned here. How common are untagged RDX or etc? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taggant#Identification_(or_post_detonation)_taggants

also occurred to me that perhaps Andromeda was cleaned in the everyday domestic sense, but not well enough to remove the otherkind of taggants, intended to trigger detectors at airports etc

[velvet rain]

Same thing but with speed over ground. This time red is fast (i.e. actively moving) and yellow is slow (i.e. drifting).

Sorry for the confusing colour switch, but red's gotta mean fast.

[sand delta]

So it seems to be slowly drifting one way, and then quickly sailing under power before drifting back, and rinse and repeat?

[stark palm]

Yeah, drifts with the current and then powers on whenever it is just about to hit Danish territorial waters.

[velvet rain]

Seems like it, yeah.

[velvet rain]

That's a really good point.

[sand delta]

I didn't realise the Danish territorial waters part....

[stark palm]

It is very careful to never cross the line

It gets very close at one point

[velvet rain]

Doesn't explain the north/south part though 😦

[vocal violet]

Danish territorial waters are marked by the purple-ish line I assume?

[velvet rain]

Different zoom level for context

[vocal violet]

Ah brilliant

[pure finch]

It's probably nothing but it seems to decide to go to eastern side of the explosion sites on the night of the 11th, before it finally departs east for good on the morning of the 13th.

[velvet rain]

I think the northern boundary is just them staying away from the shipping lanes (assuming that's what the dashed line is).

[sand delta]

exactly

[pure finch]

The concentration of passes over this part are fascinating, but could be entirely coincidental.

[velvet rain]

I'm really bad at reading the shipping lanes, but it seems like they actually parked on one.

Seems to be the line between Trelleborg and Klaipėda.

[sand delta]

If you were doing that route, you'd go through the TSS.

[pure finch]

This is a rough map I did showing the MJ in yellow - with every other AIS track by other vessels during the same period.

[junior moat]

ppl, I sign off for today, see ya later .. love the maps 🗺️

[sand delta]

me too, but feel free to ask me any questions

[sand delta]

The dashed line with an Arrow is a TSS.

[velvet rain]

It's getting really late/early here. I'm gonna regret making the maps in a few hours 😄

[stark palm]

https://oalexanderdk.substack.com/p/despite-deferring-to-the-european

It is a bit strange to me that the US keeps always pointing to the European investigations when they also inspected the sites

[velvet rain]

Really seems like they're trying to stay south of the high-density regions

[sand delta]

Context on the TSS: https://www.soefartsstyrelsen.dk/Media/637977139358837038/Navigation through Danish Water version 15 (SEP 2022).pdf (page 28)

[pure finch]

Yup makes sense.

[velvet rain]

Putting it on my reading list 😄

[sand delta]

Also I can't tell you for certain because my level of Danish is currently rated as "quite poor", but one possible reason for them wanting to avoid Danish territorial waters is the need for pilotage: https://dma.dk/Media/1/F/140121 - Flowchart pilotage in Danish territorial waters - ENG.pdf

[pure finch]

I would love to know if any naval/maritime agencies had interactions during this period with the Minerva Julie or Andromeda, e.g. even if it was just a VHF call asking for intentions.

[sand delta]

God, I was going to go to bed, but goddamnit!

[pure finch]

Hahaha, OSINT calls!

[sand delta]

http://www.yaddnet.org/pages/php/search_index.php

Here is what you're looking for.

We don't have a MMSI for Andromeda, but Julie's is 240716000.

[pure finch]

Initial search result:

(screams*

[sand delta]

Note it being a test call.

[junior moat]

oh I also wanted to go to bed 😄

[pure finch]

Hey hey don't blame me - It's @sand delta's fault!

[junior moat]

but you re-summoned me by digging into VHF DSC

[pure finch]

(I too planned on going to bed before I opened by big mouth)

[sand delta]

https://tenor.com/view/cat-drag-gif-24196275

[pure finch]

Hmmm NOINF J3E is SSB right?

[junior moat]

I sifted through all radio comms from M.Julie since Jan 2021

[sand delta]

J3E is SSB voice communication right.

[velvet rain]

Assuming for a second that their intentions were benign, it seems like the Nord Stream location would be the first location along the recent way where they could do the type of idling they did. At least without a much higher number of corrections.

[junior moat]

exactly these two(!) J3E calls are unusual

note it's just two calls, just both get recorded by two different receivers (as I understand it)

[tired monolith]

I think the key if you want to solve that specific puzzle is finding out why on earth they would stay in this idle position for a week when it makes pretty much 0 sense and they could have been sitting on idle anchor waiting for new directions

just doesnt make a whole lot of sense, even if you can explain all the other bits

[pure finch]

OK and they're from the MJ - so it could just be advising of its (lack of) intentions, after a few days on site?

[velvet rain]

Are the timestamps UTC?

[pure finch]

Oh god there's surely a whole Inmarsat rabbithole to be explored too

[pure finch]

Yes they appear to be given as UTC

Satcom monitoring is not my thing, but I know there are a bunch of tools people use to log traffic.

[sand delta]

There's a theory I know someone is working on

[pure finch]

But a call could have come in via Iridium or any number of systems.

[sand delta]

But since the only way to prove it is to submit a request for information

I won't spread it till they've been able to get their response.

🤐

[tired monolith]

bully, taking away peoples submit permissions unless its a internet button 😉

[sand delta]

lol

[pure finch]

I guess approx location when it made the call

[junior moat]

yes I checked the position with marinetraffic.. time and position matches 100% with time and position from yaddnet

[pure finch]

Hullo Lyngby Radio Lyngby Radio this is Minerva Julie, currently awaiting instructions while we assist with the destruction of the Nord Stream pipeline..... awkward silence

[sand delta]

nice

Inmarsat C doesn't do voice though, it's purely text and data based.

[junior moat]

so for the noobs like me.. what does J3E TP mean now ? the radio person wanted to talk instead of just sending a pre-defined signal ?

[stark palm]

saying anything suspicious on the radio would probably be a bad idea with Germany’s most advanced SIGINT collecting ship being 10km away

[sand delta]

https://www.itu.int/en/ITU-R/terrestrial/workshops/RRS-13-Americas/Documents/Systems_ClassofEmissions_RRS13.pdf

Single-sideband and independent-sideband amplitude modulated emissions for telephony or multi-channel voice frequency telegraphy.

[junior moat]

oookay

😄

well and why is this the only message where it also sends the position ?

[sand delta]

You can include your position in your DSC call.

As to why, I can't tell you, other than they pressed a button on their radio.

[pure finch]

I didn't even know yaddnet was a thing, so thank you very much for sharing, it's a great resource.

[junior moat]

it seems the J3E messages consistently always contain either the position (if they go to a coast station) or a freq information (if they go to another ship)

[velvet rain]

Green should be the Danish message, pink the Estonian.

[junior moat]

M.Julie didn't send such a message any other time since 01/2021
other ships do send them regularly... http://www.yaddnet.org/pages/php/search_table.php?today=8640&year=%25&month=%25&day=%25&selectallf=TEST&f1=2177.0&f2=2182.0&f11=2189.5&f3=2187.5&f4=4207.5&f5=6312.0&f6=8414.5&f7=12577.0&f8=16804.5&f9=156525.0&fmt=%25&cat=%25&tc1=j3e&tc2=%25&fp=%25&eos=%25&both=sep&totype=COAST&to_mmsi=&tomidtype=COAST&to_mid=&fromtype=SHIP&from_mmsi=&frommidtype=COAST&from_mid=&mmsi=&limit=0%2C+100&order=desc

[junior moat]

only thing be prepared to take looong breaks until search results are in 😉

[pure finch]

Tbh despite being a radio nerd, I thought civilian maritime HF/MF comms were mainly a thing of the past.

[sand delta]

Now the Talinn call is a bit weird, since it’s nowhere near the Estonian SRR.

But in practice, when I do my test calls, and I don’t receive a response (usually cos they are busy, or lazy), I’ll just find another one and bother them, just to get the job done.

[junior moat]

alright, don't re-summon me another time, I'm going to bed now 💯

[pure finch]

haha ditto

[sand delta]

Same!

[pure finch]

g'night folks - thanks for the chats and help 🙂

[sand delta]

If we all go to bed at once, there can be no conversation to bring us back.

[junior moat]

[sand delta]

[pure finch]

[tired monolith]

the cult of sleeping, unity in dreams

[foggy mirage]

I may speak into the darkness while you slumber if I come across something interesting. No need to wake and respond. Tomorrow needs you all well rested.

[vocal violet]

(If you're still awake and see this, don't reply, do it when you wake up). MJ went to Tallinn after the drifting so I don't think it's unusual to have a call there

[sand delta]

Darkness checking in. Please speak freely.

[foggy mirage]

Nothing to report thus far.

Though I must admit that diving, blowing up pipes, and tracking ocean going vessels is way outside of my range of experience.

[raw nexus]

Omg, radio silence. Nice. Sleep well.

[foggy mirage]

Shhhh sleep.🤫

[elfin cradle]

But wasnt it going to tallin?

[sand delta]

Told ya.

M1065 is Minehunter Class AFAIK

[raw nexus]

Oh Gott ( oh god)
https://twitter.com/winkelsdorf/status/1633784679932239873?t=24herHclrecc67PfptxZlw&s=19 🤪

Lars Winkelsdorf (@winkelsdorf)

Nehmen wir mal an, der Auftrag für eine Sprengung der Ostsee-Pipelines ginge an mich

Dann muss ich erstmal gucken und überlegen: Wie mache ich sowas und was soll bei der Nummer hintenraus eigentlich erzielt werden. 1/x

Likes

2404

Retweets

571

Twitter · Mar 9, 2023, 10:59 AM

[rocky wolf]

https://www-verkkouutiset-fi.translate.goog/a/verkkouutiset-tutki-venajalla-liikennoiva-laiva-sahasi-kuusi-paivaa-nord-stream-putken-vuotokohdan-paalla/?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=fi&_x_tr_pto=wapp#78776f78

[junior moat]

that's the blog post that started it all I guess (kudos!).. the best write-up of the whole thing so far comes from Danish TV https://nyheder.tv2.dk/udland/2023-03-09-mystisk-skib-drev-rundt-over-nord-stream-i-en-uge-putin-er-gaest-paa-det-kloster

when it comes to Ukrainians pointing out russia-connections with regard to NordStream ... Gonchar is consistently on the case : https://zn.ua/ukr/international/pidriv-potokiv-khto-avtor-diversiji-na-rosijskikh-hazoprovodakh.html

[rocky wolf]

Skytruth seems to be a on-point-leader-company

Some of their coverage on Nordstream

[junior moat]

oh nice, where did you find that ?

although have to say it freaks me out a bit when they position NS1 & NS2 in parallel... that's clearly not true, they don't run parallel east of Bornholm

[rocky wolf]

The data is supposed to be from European Marine Observation and Data Network (EMODnet) https://emodnet.ec.europa.eu/en

[rocky wolf]

Skytruth's CEO's linkedin

There is also quite a lot of data on linkedin on crewmembers working for Minerva Marine Inc

The whole ship business is a world of it's own!
For example, there is a position named "Paint Supervisor"

Crazy idea, what if the "petite woman" is actually employed by Minerva Marine Inc ? Would be interesting to extract female profile pics from Linkedin and show the Mola-employees these for possible identification

Minerva Marine Inc must have medical staff employed

[junior moat]

yesterday also learned there exist companies specifically for "reputation management" of tanker companies : https://navigateresponse.com/

[rocky wolf]

Distribution of positions based on roles listed on Linkedin. Interesting but not surprising that military and protective services has grown notably

[carmine summit]

I interpret this as two non AIS responding ships south of the sites on 2022-06-12 10:14 ?

[raw nexus]

That's an interesting idea, I already search for female dive doctors and will look

[stark palm]

This thing I want more than anything is some kind of concensus on the volume of explosives used

[rocky wolf]

How about september 2022?

[rocky wolf]

There are a lot of obscure positions filled by women @ Minerva Marine. Positions like "vetting officer", "checker" etc. No medical positions visible on Linkedin at least.

46 women visible with profile pictures

[raw nexus]

In Dresden is a school teaching working on underwater explosions. I will link.
https://www.sprengschule-dresden.de/fachbereiche/sprengtechnik/sonderlehrgaenge/ssw-sonderlehrgang-sprengungen-unter-wasser/

[raw nexus]

Could be a dive doctor you employ for specific missions. There are a few around Warsaw, where u started to look at to learn how his works. But it's just a side idea

[carmine summit]

There is a female dive doctor in rostock...

[vocal violet]

Agreed, the question that remains is how much of the explosion was contributed by the pipelines bursting themselves, so I was wondering if a seismograph could have picked an initial, smaller, detonation milliseconds before the main explosion

[serene grove]

nah I don't think it really burst itself, the damage would have been done by the explosives almost entirely

[velvet rain]

The shapefiles look really weird.

[serene grove]

those pipes are TOUGH

ridiculously overengineered

[raw nexus]

Just to clarify, the pipeline is surrounded by which material?

[vocal violet]

Yeah, but the gas is pressurised inside, so I'm thinking that it contributed to the explosion, otherwise it is hundreds of kgs of explosive per detonation

[junior moat]

let me just re-share what a pipeline rupture looks like without any external explosion:
#1072947857654554624 message

[serene grove]

nah that's an entirely different class of pipe

[junior moat]

it's a natgas pipe under like 70 bar pressure

[serene grove]

the NS2 pipeline has a bunch of layers

[junior moat]

exactly, NS2 has even more pressure so if you get it to burst, it will BURST

[raw nexus]

Are this pipes laying free or in another material?

[serene grove]

they just sit on the bottom

that's really not how things work on the ocean floor

[true barn]

concrete is the outermost layer from what I‘ve read

[velvet rain]

I think that long thing in the top right corner is actually the missing pipeline segment.

[junior moat]

yes it is.. that's where it flew 😄

[velvet rain]

That's... pretty bad.

[junior moat]

since we're supposed to add sources to our screenshots/images as @rustic bay keeps pointing out 😉 here's the source : https://t.co/9hEyUOhd6o

[serene grove]

so it was at 105 bar when it ruptured...how close is that to ocean pressure? I forget the depth but I think it was pretty far down there

[junior moat]

ocean pressure around 7-9 bar (at depth 80m)

[serene grove]

yeah that's a pretty big difference still...but water is non-compressible, things don't explode the same way underwater

[vocal violet]

We need a physicist here

[serene grove]

we also need better pictures of the damage tbh

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p2yCqEA435o

this is the best I could find

[velvet rain]

That pipeline was only at 50-ish bar, by the way. https://www.corrosion-doctors.org/Pipeline/Williams-explosion.htm

[pure finch]

Correct - that was during BALTOPs - it seems Patuxent was leading a group of ships during the exercise. Quite standard for military vessels not to be on AIS.

[junior moat]

uh wow, nice find !! 🙏

[velvet rain]

The numbers are a bit unclear though.
"After repairs were made to the line near Lake Tapps in May, inspectors ordered the company to reduce the line's gas pressure 20 percent to 632 pounds per square inch." implies around 50 bar.
"For now, Williams is ramping down the gas in its pipeline to 100 pounds per square inch or 12% of its capacity," implies around 100 bar.

[elfin cradle]

• "The apparently smooth cut surface could be explained by the fact that the pipe was cut off by the Swedish government to secure evidence after the attack. After all, they made no secret of the fact that they had already secured traces on October 6th, 2022 and probably cleared the scene of the crime around the damaged pipelines. "*

https://sprengtechnik.de/sprengung-nordstream/

[sand delta]

(Particularly interesting read)
https://scholarsmine.mst.edu/masters_theses/7305/

https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1944/15/21/7848

[serene grove]

and I assume the swedish govt is still just sitting on it?

they are Obnoxiously Neutral lmao

[junior moat]

actually the numbers are pretty consistent --> if 100 psi is 12% of capacity then full capacity is 833 psi (57 bar)

[velvet rain]

I'm an idiot

That's what you get for multitasking

[vocal violet]

Relatable

[stark palm]

I have a guy in Rostock/Wiek tomorrow if anyone has any good ideas for information that could be acquired that isn’t out there yet

[junior moat]

hm. apparently Mola employees in Rostock won't talk much .. in Wiek harbour there must be a grocery shop the gang visited, maybe employees there will hint at things .. could of course visit Andromeda in Dranske in the winter storage (but probably not very exciting)

[elfin cradle]

"Förundersökningssekretess"/ Pre-trial confidentiality
The preliminary investigation is confidentiality until
charges are brought or its concluded. Then it becomes a public document as all government documents are by default.
So they will be quiet until the release everything.

[serene grove]

oh wow that's awesome

[junior moat]

these guys operate the most amazing webcam in all of Wiek .. (https://www.stahnke-ruegen.de/webcam-wiek.html) if they have recording, not just live-stream that would definitely capture the arrival of Andromeda .. but it's a really long shot I guess 😄

[serene grove]

automatic release FTW

[elfin cradle]

I will try to send out some mail later today to a few demolition companies and the Geolocial survey of Sweden and maybe if I found someone at the universities and ask them for their opinions.

[junior moat]

one funky piece of information hinted at somewhere is that the gang visited Wiek another 2nd time (on the way back?) .... also probably hard to come by but of course amazing if that could be corroborated

[elfin cradle]

I will also contact Swedish National Seismic Network (the one that detected the explosions first) and ask for more detailed info. And also ask them how much or little amount of explosives they can detect / how accurate thier explosives amount estimations is.

[junior moat]

also maybe visit these guys (https://www.marine-science-center.de/kontaktanfahrt.html) since they sit right at the exit of HoheDüne .. probably don't count ships every day that leave and return to the harbour but you never know

[velvet rain]

It might be worth a try to ask around in Wiek if they have a local guy who's really into boat photography.

[next dirge]

I’ve looked through that and found nothing interesting

[next dirge]

Marine Paints is actually a very specialised niche and a real industry

[velvet rain]

It's incredibly important unless you want your ship to disintegrate immediately.

[next dirge]

Pretty much

[junior moat]

Nice, that would be great .. here's some thread about the explosions with input from a Finnish seismologist
https://twitter.com/BleiLennart/status/1627994101533622272

Mr. Mr. h.c. Lennart Bpunkt 🇩🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@BleiLennart)

@Geenimetsuri @OAlexanderDK If you happen to have a minute can you provide some insight to non-seismologists like us why the different reports on the nordstream explosions report such different magnitudes, even when they reference each other ?

Twitter · Feb 21, 2023, 11:30 AM

also seismic-coupling with explosions differs apparently a lot depending on geo-structure etc
https://twitter.com/Geenimetsuri/status/1627761085267824645

T. Vuorinen (@Geenimetsuri)

@OAlexanderDK The seismic coupling is highly uncertain.

Any yield estimate from the magnitude is a ballpark figure.

https://t.co/YNHOZLpvMX

Twitter · Feb 20, 2023, 8:04 PM

I think overall measuring the impact of the explosions using hydroacoustic data should be MUCH more accurate compared to seismic information (because of the geological structure of the Bornholm basin etc)

that's why maybe Gothenburg University (with research vessel Skagerak) and some other researchers who maybe have sound-sensors deployed in the Baltic could be really great to get some data from them

[elfin cradle]

My University, I will try to look it up some contact after work today.

[junior moat]

in other news, China just always finds the weirdest people to report for the Chinese public about what is going on in Europe. This guy is apparently Chinese media's go-to person when it comes to security in the Baltic Sea from a Swedish perspective 😂
https://janoberg.me/

just proud of spreading disinfo to millions of people at once

[sand delta]

His thinktank seems like a who’s who of utter cranks. http://www.transnational.org/page1_8.php

[junior moat]

Our Associates come from many countries and all major faiths; some are atheists, some Gandhians.
😂 all major faiths: (1) atheists (2) Gandhians.

[sand delta]

lol

[raw nexus]

When you buy an expert at shein

[sand delta]

https://transnational.live/2023/02/27/john-scales-avery-natos-aggressive-militarism/?amp=1

[velvet rain]

Wow, he's actually getting his opinions from ChatGPT.
https://janoberg.me/2023/03/12/peace-and-conflict-resolution-artificial-intelligence-ai-seems-more-intelligent-than-human-political-intelligence-pi/

[summer vine]

"All sides must be willing to sit down and negotiate in good faith." Uh... bit of a problem right there, chief.

[sand delta]

“I’m happy to negotiate your unconditional surrender.”

[velvet rain]

To be fair, the knowledge cut-off is 2021, so the answers are really about the 2014 invasion.

And it seems to just be parroting news coverage of the Minsk negotiations there.

[raw nexus]

We should try that with the ships 😉

[raw nexus]

This is exactly the schidd spreading in GB Labour

[pure finch]

Even leaving aside everything that's happened since the invasion last year... In terms of good faith - kinda difficult to forget Russian diplomats/officials/etc declaring the possibility of an invasion to be crazy and that it was purely NATO/US disinfo, oh and the Russian "withdrawal" a week or two beforehand.

Ugh.

[sand delta]

It’s just “regular” left-wing NATO/America-bashing.

[mortal halo]

Who in turn are being fed by other institutions.

[sand delta]

Indeed.

[velvet rain]

I mean, it could write a poem about it, I guess?

[junior moat]

Lavrov even after invading Ukraine, when asked if they plan on invading more countries, simply stated: "We did not invade Ukraine"
https://twitter.com/nocomment/status/1501944458098601994

[raw nexus]

The Ballad of Minerva Julie

[pure finch]

blood pressure warning

[sand delta]

Even with convictions, I’d be very surprised if whoever eventually gets fingered for this incident will be viewed unreservedly as the ones who did it.

[raw nexus]

Ok, before someone needs an ambulance: This doesn't belong in this chat 1!!11 ,🙈🙉🙊

[sand delta]

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2023-03-12/the-truth-about-nord-stream-pipeline-blast-covid-lab-leak-is-elusive?srnd=opinion#xj4y7vzkg

[velvet rain]

You asked for it

[vocal violet]

What's interesting is that even ChatGPT says that military support or even intervention is legitimate if the aggressor's side is not willing to negotiate or respect international law, so at the end of the day it's cherrypicking 😛

I did also ask about this to ChatGPT back in the day, it was an interesting experiment

[pure finch]

Totally agree.

[tidal knoll]

New Wellerman verses dropped!

[sand delta]

Soon May the Wellerman Come… to blow up the Pipes, and drink some Rum!

[tidal knoll]

Now I need to tune my ukulele.

[velvet rain]

Bellingcat Discord band when?

[sand delta]

Giancarlo on vocals

Subtle on ukulele

[pure finch]

Needs to be a Minerva Julie dance, where you walk forward in a straight line, before drifting aimlessly.

[sand delta]

The Andromeda Shuffle

[junior moat]

😄

[raw nexus]

😂🍾🏆

[sand delta]

Also, Minerva ironically operates a VLCC called Andromeda.

[pure finch]

The Andromeda Shuffle requires you to disable your AIS transponder on the dancefloor

[sand delta]

Doesn’t fit in Yachthafen Höhe Dune though.

[tired monolith]

cant say that until you have tried, who knows whats possible with enough speed 😉

[sand delta]

(I knew that went without saying, but I wanted to say it)

🫣

[velvet rain]

First concert in front of the webcam there

[pure finch]

There was a sailboat named Vela in the area - wasn't involved but I briefly hoped for a new "Vela incident"!

[sand delta]

Any chance he could look into getting a firm MMSI for Andromeda?

[pure finch]

Is it confirmed the Andromeda left from the Marina rather than the area covered by the camera?

[sand delta]

Also, my understanding is that Bavaria Cruiser 50 has a unique code

Etched or whatever into the port side of its transoms

Sorry

Starboard side!

The RND photos aren’t great quality and the angles aren’t great to see any of this.

[sand delta]

Yachthafen Hohe Dune’s marine is situated on the outside of the Seekanal

[pure finch]

Thank you

[sand delta]

Also the MMSI, call sign, etc, might sometimes be stuck on somewhere in the cockpit, get him to bring a ladder and maybe have a look

Do not get into the boat,

[junior moat]

but yeah actually true.. I don't know if winter storage in Dranske isn't maybe just freely accessible... just bring a long selfie-stick and take an all-around video of Andromeda, including cockpit

[velvet rain]

The boat might not even be there right now.

[sand delta]

It was there as of a couple days ago

https://www.rnd.de/politik/nord-stream-sabotage-jacht-andromeda-auf-ruegen-entdeckt-PDZUWGVLUFELPC6OSGHP3Y6IDU.html

And the view from the Kapelle next door to it, makes it seem wide open.

[velvet rain]

My bad, I thought Dranske was further away from Wiek 😄

[sand delta]

Not encouraging trespass by the way.

Please consult with a German lawyer

But yea, worth a try to see if we can get a firm identity for the Andromeda.

https://youtu.be/prGWwPKGZW4

I was watching this recently, and these guys were using the space under the cockpit seats (it’s a compartment) to store their dive gear.

[junior moat]

once he's snooping around in Hohe Düne also have him look out for suspicious looking Roshen chocolate bars

[sand delta]

I think he deserves a chocolate bar after all this investigatory work.

[pallid moat]

was looking for this exact thing on that Yacht TV video showing the Andromeda on YouTube, no luck though 😕

something to keep in mind if any new vids or pics surface

[sand delta]

Indeed.

[velvet rain]

I missed that bit when it came up first. So that means we even know the exact current location to within like 5m?

[sand delta]

We know it’s in Winter Storage in Dranske

And we know where Mola’s winter storage in Dranske is.

https://maps.app.goo.gl/9aS2mKHjZQAzRJws5

[velvet rain]

Judging from the picture it can only be here where the marker is.

[sand delta]

Oh yea, didn’t realise that, it has to be on the coastal concrete side.

The Kapelle Dranske has good pictures of that side in that case.

[cobalt valley]

So... We could get SkyFi to take a new satellit photo for around 200 USD, right? Probably won't be able to read the name of the boat, though

[velvet rain]

Yep

Not sure if that'd be worth it

[sand delta]

Even if our super secret agent can't get into the Mola area.

[junior moat]

fence 😬

[velvet rain]

$176.33

[sand delta]

No, this is in between the Kapelle Dranske and the southern part.

My point being, even if you can't get into the Mola part, the Kapelle is obviously going to be open to public access.

[junior moat]

bring a drone, fly over it

probably not 100% illegal 😉 grey zone

[sand delta]

You'd probably be able to take a totally legal look from the Kapelle's grounds.

[velvet rain]

Just for context here though, we're talking about a spatial resolution of 50cm per pixel at best.

[sand delta]

I mean we know it's the Andromeda there.

Getting stuff like the boats serial number, it's MMSI, etc, is the prize.

Did you find a way to get in?

[junior moat]

never mind my deleted message -- found it on archive.is -- yes

[raw nexus]

Turn off java

[junior moat]

https://archive.is/eAUS5

[velvet rain]

It might be possible to ask the Bundesnetzagentur. Not sure if they're allowed/willing to give out that information.

[sand delta]

https://www.itu.int/mmsapp/ShipStation/list

From searching this we have a list of 18 Andromeda's.

Aric filtered them down to only a couple.

So it's probably one of them, but

[velvet rain]

So that list is down to 3 now?

[junior moat]

just in case anyone is interested but knows as little Swedish as I do : https://ephemeral--flan--741edb-netlify-app.translate.goog/?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp

[limber hinge]

It is called the HIN
HULL
IDENTIFICATION
NUMBER
Required by law pretty much internationally since about the 90's.
I have a rare boat without one built in 1987 in UK.

[sand delta]

And that will be in the ship registration files, right?

My experience is with IMO numbers, not an expert in smol boot

In Amtsgericht Rostock, that is.

[limber hinge]

Correct

[sand delta]

@stark palm https://www.bsh.de/DE/THEMEN/Schifffahrt/Sportschifffahrt/Sportbootvermessung/sportbootvermessung_node.html

If you wanted your guy to hassle Amtsgericht Rostock.

https://www.deutsche-flagge.de/en/german-flag/registration/ships-register/ships-register

[limber hinge]

I am having trouble keeping up and navigating the site, so apologies.

A couple of things would be helpful to all.

You all might find some useful information in a CRUSING GUIDE.

Iam US so can not recommend but simply Google
BALTIC CRUISING GUIDES and find ine is your language of choice.
They will typically describe a harbor, it's facilities, pump out, diesel, depth, and contact numbers

[raw nexus]

So when you take that list and look which boot is actually on the sea iis not our one?

[limber hinge]

Idea ONE
It would be useful l to have a simple scaled map with an event timeliness for the explosions and Andeomeda. The explosions should have a bare bones description, 50m gone, 1/0 m gone.

I think this would really help with the temporal and spatial relationships I and others are struggling with.

Mayne someone has already done this and it can be pinned.

[junior moat]

yeah some good summary of knowledge would probably be helpful, but also quite some work
( I may look into putting this together later tonight )

in the meantime, more dripfeeding from Spiegel: https://www.spiegel.de/panorama/justiz/nord-stream-anschlag-schiff-andromeda-steht-aufgebockt-auf-ehemaligem-militaergelaende-a-52203bf0-2bf0-4996-b034-5ff0ce849fe4

[sand delta]

https://msi.nga.mil/api/publications/download?key=16694491/SFH00000/Pub193bk.pdf&type=view Sailing Directions Kattegat/Skagerrak

https://msi.nga.mil/api/publications/download?key=16694491/SFH00000/Pub194bk.pdf&type=view Sailing Directions Southern Baltic

https://msi.nga.mil/api/publications/download?key=16694491/SFH00000/Pub195bk.pdf&type=view Sailing Directions Gulf of Finland/Bothnia

https://msi.nga.mil/api/publications/download?key=16694492/SFH00000/Pub140bk.pdf&type=view Broader Guide for the North Atlantic

https://msi.nga.mil/api/publications/download?key=16694312/SFH00000/NIMA_LOL/Pub116/UpdatedPub116bk.pdf&type=view List of Lights in the Baltic

[junior moat]

" Investigators who searched the 'Andromeda' in January are said to have removed the on-board electronics of the 15-meter-long yacht and taken it with them for investigation. "

[limber hinge]

Idea TWO
One thing missing in Andromeda discussion is holding tank capacity. Garbage in, garbage out. Some jurisdictions do not allow overboard discharge FACILITY. The Great Lakes for example, it is not possible to empty tanks. If so that would put a restriction on how long Andromeda can stay out of a marina. Sure you can use a bucket, but there is strong taboos about that. So you need to go to a marina for a "pump out." It may be possible the marina is required to keep a log of pump out.

A call to any charter company should clear that up.

[next dirge]

As a lawyer who has fiddled with ChatGPT in several legal fields, including intl. law, I have to say (and this is consensus amongst everyone I know) that it is notoriously bad at handling legal work

Pretty much makes everything up from thin air

[vocal violet]

Yeah, that's literally how it works, it's a generative model

Looks at existing data and tries to predict what to say, replicating the patterns it has found previously

[vocal violet]

ChatGPT is impressive, but it's impressive in the same way a parrot can mimic a person, without knowing what it is saying

It can be useful this way nonetheless, but never taken as an expert

[next dirge]

It’s impressive in the way that it can mimic an intelligent person without actually being intelligent

I have used it for brainstorming and whatnot though, its not a bad tool at all

[velvet rain]

I imagine having been trained on stuff like Reddit users' shitty legal opinions can't help...

[vocal violet]

Yeah, I guess that you would have a more accurate model if it was trained exclusively on legal documents

[sand delta]

You can probably urinate overboard fine.

Pooing, maybe not.

But yea, they'd fill up their tank with grey water.

[nimble gull]

So the AIS is turned off just as it is (presumably) crossing right on top of both explosion sites.

Coincidence most likely, but hmmm...annoying.

[limber hinge]

Idea THREE
Make up a spread sheet of all the gear you need to do this series of dives. List, gear, quantity, weight, and classify as Mandatory, Recommended, Fluff.

As I see it now you have at least 3 dive sites and some items are per dive. Others can be reused.

Rebreater 1 mandatory, 1 spare
O2 bottles ? Mandatory, spare
Dry suit 1
Weights
Flotation bags
Gas for flotation bags
Xxx kilos of explosive
3 explosive containers
1 down line with bouy
Dive kit
Cranento lift explosives into water (Dingy davits? - if equipped)
Etc.

Only once you make up a compressive list of thr MINIMUM equipment and supplies can you then assess the boats capability.

[sand delta]

So we get put on a list as people planning to blow up Nordstream

To do:

Get 6x Fake Bulgarian passports.

[next dirge]

I mean you definitely are already

[limber hinge]

Last point
As I see it at least 3 dives are needed, bare minimum. One at each site. Perhaps more to place the down line and lower the charge. Then more to place the charge.

Apparently the dives take some hours to decompress.

How quickly can a diver recover between dives? Can 1 diver make 2 dives in one day? Or does the diver need to take a couple of days off between dives?

In this case the divers may be gonzo types and take significant risks. So 2 sets of answers; 1 for aggressive commercial operation and another for extremely aggressive and motivated divers.

Then you get an idea of how long Andromeda needs to stay "on sceen".

[velvet rain]

Capacity of the waste water tank is 70 litres.

Sorry, 70 litres per toilet.

[junior moat]

yeah, there's actually more to this story which that article doesn't capture ... it was a Danish Patrol boat which found something suspicious and then called up the Swedes which immediately sent their warship over (but it took some time to get there)
a little bit more is described here as well: https://corporate-trust.blog/2022/11/17/scandinavians-took-a-hard-look-days-before-nordstream-exploded/ (all happened on Sept 22nd around the morning-midday hours)

[velvet rain]

Why does this thing have three toilets?

And yes, there is a separate user manual for the toilet.

Because of course there is.

[nimble gull]

Interesting. Starting to feel like there is a whole lot of people who know a whole lot. 😭

[limber hinge]

Another angle to look at might be the EPIRB registration database. It may be viewable. That should have the HIN and MMSI.

I think it highly unlikely the charter company would send a boat out without an EPIRB, liability.

[junior moat]

yes that's my impression as well.. if the respective navies and airforces pass on all their knowledge to the investigators, in the end it might not be like 100% clear what happened but attribution will be very likely
question is will they make all info public in the end 🤷‍♂️

[sand delta]

I was looking for an EPIRB in the video.

[velvet rain]

Then we're back to the Bundesnetzagentur

[limber hinge]

That is no more than 3 days for6 people. Especially non-boaters

Is direct discharge allowed in the Baltic?
Are vessles allowed to be equipped for direct discharge? That is the main point, will they be forced to pump out due to lack of ability to direct discharge?

[nimble gull]

Source on decompresion? Or is that just taken for granted (sorry, not a diver).

The expert testimonials vary so wildly...
https://www-rnd-de.translate.goog/panorama/experte-zur-nord-stream-sprengung-kein-hexenwerk-fuer-erfahrene-taucher-2HFIBXP4KNCPFD7VM22A4SXUAA.html?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp

[limber hinge]

That may have a separate tank and discharge? Depends on local regs.

Just wondering if this is a way to track Andromeda. Not every harbor has pump out, or do they?

[sand delta]

https://www.hafendorf-wiek.de/english/harbour-plan/

fwiw, Wiek has a waste disposal facility.

I doubt Christianso does.

[limber hinge]

Because cruisers are full if it?
Seriously, it is for charter trade and people want to rent an "apartment on water", they want to replicate their at home comforts.

There are good reasons for 2, 3 is more of a privacy thing. Remember it is designed to carry 12 people, and marine toilets plug frequently.

[junior moat]

the investigators by the way seem to have been able to (partially) track Andromeda not via AIS but via quote
"stored radar recording of shipping traffic on the Baltic Sea"
anyone know anything about this ? who would store radar recordings in the Baltic ? would this be publicly accessible by any chance ?

[velvet rain]

"Christiansø Harbour does not receive lavatory wastewater. Help us keep the harbour environment clean – empty your lavatory wastewater at the next harbour."
https://www.christiansoe.dk/en/visit-the-island/the-harbour/

[velvet rain]

Sounds like fun

[sand delta]

Lavatory waste water is known as black/brown water.

[limber hinge]

The people managing the Traffic Separation Zones might.

Halifax has very good radar and guides every vessle into the harbor, especially in fog.

[sand delta]

You mean a VTS?

[limber hinge]

Understood. Is there a pump out log required? Can someone see it?

[limber hinge]

Iu think so. Surely not recorded everywhere but maybe?

[sand delta]

A merchant ship has to do this.

Whether a WAFI has to do so, I dunno.

[limber hinge]

WAFI?

[sand delta]

(Wind Assisted F**king Idiot)

What we call sailboaters.

[limber hinge]

Rag sailor

Does the HARBOR need to do it?

[sand delta]

VTS systems have radars.

[sand delta]

Yes, definitely.

[pure vine]

dry suit wouldnt be necessary, its about 15 ish degrees and with a thick wetsuit youll be able to

[limber hinge]

Then you may have a way to locate Andromeda?

[pure vine]

taken for granted, at 88m it's guaranteed (most divetables top off at something like 60m)

[sand delta]

There may be someone with a radar track, yes.

Given its made of fibreglass (which has no radar reflectability whatsoever), it definitely has a radar reflector.

We couldn't find Andromeda on SARadar satellite data, but again, it's fibreglass and a radar reflector probably isn't big enough to give it a signature from space.

[junior moat]

hm yes VTS is located directly in Warnemünde/Rostock
( https://www.elwis.de/DE/Seeschifffahrt/Verkehrs-und-Sicherheitsmanagement/Verkehrszentralen/Verkehrskanaele.pdf?__blob=publicationFile&v=2 )

Building looks like this ( https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Verkehrszentrale_Warnemünde )

[inner sandal]

I've written a longish piece on what we know so far, while trying not to lose sight of the overall picture. https://medium.com/@brian-whit/attack-on-nord-stream-the-story-so-far-e8d89a97115b

[velvet rain]

The Antonivskyi Bridge radar reflectors were visible on SAR. They were slightly bigger though.
https://www.thedrive.com/uploads/2022/08/01/Kherson-Bridge-Radar-Reflectors.jpg?auto=webp&crop=16%3A9&auto=webp&optimize=high&quality=70&width=1920

https://twitter.com/bradyafr/status/1564674317127933958

Brady Africk (@bradyafr)

@bayraktar_1love @ArtisanalAPT @COUPSURE There is some recent SAR imagery available which shows that the Russian ferries near Antonovsky bridge remain active.

Likes

256

Twitter · Aug 30, 2022, 6:00 PM

[junior moat]

I have to say investigators do have a significant advantage here over OSINT with access to radar data .. while OSINT we have nothing really for as long as the vessel is at sea 😬
waiting for dripfeed, basically 😉

[sand delta]

Oh fair point

[sand delta]

Nice 🙂

[elfin cradle]

Sweden and Denmark navy wont share radar data due national security etc. I asked DE,DK,PL,SE maritime agencies and DK and SE said it would contact the Navy. The SE maritime agencies would look into if they can give away AIS for free as DK does.

[junior moat]

we can try and pretend Bellingcat is a federal govt agency and do an "Amtshilfeersuchen" for them to share the data 🕺

[whole thunder]

I told you the 1st or 2nd day we are on this stuff that they might track it via rostock traffic control if they are storing their data

you are right, the investigators having an unfair advantage 😉

[whole thunder]

https://fragdenstaat.de/

based on the information freedom act of germany (Informationsfreiheitsgesetz)
But i doubt they will tell us during an ongoing investigation

[junior moat]

yeah probably not.

[elfin cradle]

Would a thick wetsuit be enough in 10C water and decompress for 4-5h tho?
Diving as deep to 80m isnt so easy as that guy claims it be, not even for experience divers.

[limber hinge]

You may find this helpful.

https://sailboatdata.com/sailboat/bavaria-cruiser-50
MANY recreational yachts do NOT have radar reflectors.

[pure vine]

iirc it was like 15ish it would be doable

no idea when it comes to decompression, 88m is way over the standard limit for publicly available dive charts so i can't really elaborate on the

[limber hinge]

Maybe 15C at surface, temperature at depth is?

[elfin cradle]

I used this example where they was 30-40min at 80m and had 2.5h decompress.

https://scubaboard.com/community/threads/incident-on-80m-avg-30-min-bt-dive.548043/

[limber hinge]

I believe a military or aggressive commercial diver will go far beyond recreational dive limitations.
So those tables may be conservative.
Or there may be alternative techologies.
Really need a serious dive pro here.
Ex SEAL?

[sand delta]

at the very least an experienced (deep) underwater diver with demolitions experience.

[junior moat]

we do have Achim (ex military diver) who says (at least with rebreathers) it's all possible : #1072947857654554624 message

[sand delta]

https://www.c6f.navy.mil/Press-Room/News/News-Display/Article/1895175/us-ukrainian-divers-participate-in-dive-training-media-day/

[serene grove]

my understanding is that the decomp profiles are standard across recreational+industrial+military

if anything the receational divers are going to be pushing it further than the military folks

industrial will be based on the local regulatory climate but I'm pretty sure nobody is trying to cut corners

I have a pretty american perspective though so idk

I have some cave-diving buddies who told me these things and none of them have died yet so I guess they're pretty good at it

[limber hinge]

You may be correct. Would be nice to hear.
But for the time being we could use your tables.
So about 3 hours per dive, minimum.
And that is water time, not prep.
Still no idea on how long a break is required between dives, if any.

[shy fulcrum]

No need for hundreds of kilos TNT to blow up a pipeline - watch this (from @DocHeth on Twitter https://www.ebad.com/ace-advanced-cutting-explosive/

The steel thickness in the pipeline is comparable to the one in the video. There is another video here of a 60mm thick steelplate - cut like butter. This would work under water as well. https://www.facebook.com/Spraengning/posts/1562637983756850/

[true barn]

https://censor.net/en/video_news/3307063/when_boys_gave_up_and_left_the_water_saying_enough_for_me_i_kept_going_kateryna_nikitenko_first_female

[sand delta]

Worth remembering that the identification of there being a female in the group is apparently because one of the individuals was “unusually petite.”

And that the identification of them as a doctor seems to because “what else would a woman provide to this group.”

I shit you not.

[true barn]

I know, but I stumbled upon this and thought it's worth sharing for one reason or another

[sand delta]

No it’s good,

[true barn]

I'd also look petite next to 5 jacked-up navy seals

and I'd probably let the woman do the diving, because I prefer to be above sea level

[velvet rain]

I have had a look into the remaining Andromeda candidates and Aric's list again. Four candidates remain, DJ7535, DH2307, DF5230, and DOUY.
I was wondering why there were different numbering schemes for the different ships, so I read the numbering concept. https://www.bundesnetzagentur.de/SharedDocs/Downloads/DE/Sachgebiete/Telekommunikation/Unternehmen_Institutionen/Nummerierung/Nummerierungskonzept/Nummerierungskonzept2014.html
Turns out the ones with four numbers (DJ7535, DH2307, DF5230) are the ones that are not registered with a Seeschiffsregister. Only DOUY has an entry there. The space of all available callsigns is distributed among the different registering courts, so it should be possible to match that.

Note that for the Bavaria Cruiser 50, registration should be optional, since it is slightly below 15m hull length.

[true barn]

yes, I checked the specs, it's like 14.9 something meters for the purpose of avoiding registration

[sand delta]

14,99 unironically.

[true barn]

I hope the material doesn't expand in humid regions triggering instant registration

[sand delta]

I maybe wrong

But thinking back on it

All my merchant ships have had letter only callsigns

[limber hinge]

Rest between dives,
I see no recommendations or guidelines. So I guess it is whatever the diver can do.

[sand delta]

So that last DUOY as you suggested being registered in the register, might be a non pleasure vessel

[velvet rain]

Do we know the names of any other Mola yachts?