Nord Stream Pipeline

[thick crag]

it’s not DIIJ2: https://www.trans-ocean.org/schiff/userid/9538/shipid/2143

[mossy star]

nice, thanks, added that

[junior moat]

yeah according to German wikipedia this is possible

[mossy star]

opened up comments on there if you want to add links/etc to what you fin don the spreadsheet

[thick crag]

do the call sign prefixes mean anything? DA/DI/DC/etc

[sand delta]

Yes

D = Germany (or SK or PH)

DA, DB, DC, DD, -- all the way to DR is reserved for German vessels

DS - DT = South Korea

DU - DZ = Phillipines, this is set by the ITU.

The sail has the code B50 on it.

[thick crag]

thank you

[sand delta]

@whole thunder Is there a central registry of German sailing vessels for racing?

Like the German Sailing Association or whatnot?

[whole thunder]

I'm already looking for it

[sand delta]

It could just mean Bavaria 50, lol

[whole thunder]

yeah i guess its just from the manufacturer. Official sailnumbers start with GER for German vessels

[sand delta]

Yep.

[thick crag]

definitely means bavaria 50, seems like that’s how they all look. this is just a random bavaria 50 from google images (https://www.boatbookings.com/yacht/bavaria-50-bareboat-sailing-yacht-pid18037)

[sand delta]

Good point 🙂

[thick crag]

@mossy star, are the green-tagged vessels the only ones with capacity = 10? or could others have capacity = 10, but you just don’t have the data to mark that down?

[mossy star]

only ones with explicit regisration info that has capacity of 10 are green

all others are either <10 or didn't have that field filled

[sand delta]

https://twitter.com/VenusYvi/status/1633906535507083296

Yvonne Böttcher (@VenusYvi)

💥NORDSTREAM: DEUTSCHE MEDIEN - GUT ZUHÖREN IHR EXPERTEN❗️💥

⚓️ Fregatten-Kapitän Göran Swistek zur neuen Version der NordStream-Anschläge:

"Das kann man nicht mit einer kleinen Gruppe, so wie das momentan in den Medien durchläuft, organisieren.

https://t.co/DksPlGIHU3

▶ Play video

Twitter · Mar 9, 2023, 7:04 PM

German Navy Fregatten­kapitän (O-4 rank) disagreeing with the idea that it's possible for the yacht to have done this.

[pine umbra]

I feel like the only consensus currently is that there are definitely more people and equipment involved than the 6 people with the Andromeda

[thick crag]

would it be possible to mark which ones had capacity <10? (or are those already marked, and red?)

[sand delta]

https://www.ostsee-zeitung.de/lokales/rostock/ermittlungen-in-mv-so-jagt-das-bka-die-nordstream-saboteure-OQXHSJNEGFDGNJOKBXL6TMI7VA.html

On September 6, the alleged perpetrators - the New York Times speaks of five men and one woman, citing US secret service circles - are said to have set sail from the Hohe Düne marina. With a chartered sailing yacht on which they are said to have stored up to 500 kilos of explosives. This information is now considered relatively secure. The BKA apparently wants to use the speed camera photos to try to locate the delivery van and possible backers who delivered the explosives.

[pine umbra]

maybe this whole Andromeda thing is some sick false flag?

/distraction

[thick crag]

seems unlikely at this point

[sand delta]

According to OZ research, the BKA is not only investigating in the Hanseatic city, but also on the island of Rügen: the company is based there, where the suspects chartered the 15-meter-long sailing yacht with false documents. There had already been investigations at the company and searches on the ship at the end of January. This was confirmed by the Federal Public Prosecutor's Office of the OZ. However, Germany's highest criminal investigation authority expressly emphasized that no investigations were being carried out against the company or its employees. The company declined to comment due to the ongoing investigation. In this context, it is still unclear why the BKA is also investigating boat rental companies in Rostock.

Someone with better German than I can confirm, but is this saying they chartered the vessel out of the Mola office in (Breege) Rugen?

[magic niche]

I'll read it

[pine umbra]

I don't think they say that specifically

[magic niche]

me neither

[pine umbra]

It just says "there [in Rügen] is the seat of the company, from which they chartered the yacht"

[sand delta]

ah gotcha.

[magic niche]

I'm still catching up with what we know, but so we're sure about the Andromeda from Mola Yachting GmbH and @mossy star is trying to establish its callsign ?

[pine umbra]

yes, there was a Spiegel report stating that the Andromeda is the yacht in question

@magic niche

[mossy star]

tl;dr:

We know the boat name (Andromeda), type (Bavaria Cruiser 50), owner (Mola Yachting). We've found lots of photos/videos of it over the past few years.

Still unknown: call sign / MMSI, any further info on its exact whereabouts (via webcam/tourist photos/etc) on Sept 6-20

[magic niche]

yes i got that, but aric knew that before i think

[mossy star]

I think that sums it up basically

[tidal knoll]

It says they are also looking into drivers and have asked for traffic camera pictures.

[mossy star]

Any extra pre-2022 Andromeda photos are a nice plus but would not be super revelatory

Jake found the golden photo earlier from 2021

Been chatting with some journos over the morning that fill in extra gaps (sorry can't post it all here, it's not OSINT yet!), especially with Wiek, so worth doing a double-dip of any photos/vids/etc. of Wiek on Sept 7.

Oliver just posted a summary of info on his substack: https://oalexanderdk.substack.com/p/the-nord-stream-andromeda-story-what

[nimble gull]

Swedish military researcher Hans Liwång has claimed this since the beginning.

[mossy star]

(He is very critical of the idea that non-Russians were involved, so take with a grain of salt)

[tired monolith]

didnt someone mention that this was a part that was the thinnest pipes? couldnt that be a reason, that they couldnt blow it at the thicker and possibly more available sections?

[sand delta]

Nord Stream designed the pipeline with three different design pressure sections. (220, 200 and 177.5 bar) and pipe wall thicknesses (34.4, 30.9 and 26.8 mm.

The 177.5 bar/26.7mm section was apparently blown.

[pine umbra]

This is from Instagram uploaded Sept. 6th, but Andromeda was still in Rostock that day right?

(with geo tag Wiek)

[mossy star]

Allegedly

Link?

[pine umbra]

1 sec

https://www.instagram.com/p/CiLaSsOseWy/?igshid=YmMyMTA2M2Y=

pkw_on_the_road

Sunset in Wiek Harbor

Instagram

[nimble gull]

https://www.dn.se/sverige/expert-sabotaget-kan-ha-utforts-fran-vilken-fiskebat-som-helst/

“The sabotage could have been done form any fishing boat”. In another article he’s quoted saying “three guys and a fishing boat” His figures for explosives is also lower than most others I’ve seen.

[whole thunder]

ships over 15m length are registered but there is no central registry (welcome to germany). I guess court in rostock is the right one for the Andromeda we are looking for

[sand delta]

And the Cruiser 50 is 14,99m reportedly.

[mossy star]

No andromeda visible (easily identifiable) in that IG pic right?

[sand delta]

Which could be an intentional means of allowing lesser trained sailors to operate it by building up to the maximum allowed.

[pine umbra]

I don't see it at least

[mossy star]

Gotcha

[tired monolith]

the cruiser appear with 2 lengths - but the hull is 14.99 yea - the other is with the platform at the rear

[pine umbra]

sadly all boats that remotely look like a Bavaria c50 are too far away

[whole thunder]

no, but could be registered anyway, especially if its used for business.

[sand delta]

Yep.

[rustic bay]

@ me for pin maintenance

[sand delta]

1 hr 15 mins to that new news report with video of the Andromeda.

[tidal knoll]

You are ALL about the pins today!

[rustic bay]

I can't contribute a lot due to busy RL but I can find a good "what we know right now" post every few hours and stick a pin in it

[raw nexus]

Can u update now, I'm back and it's just overwhelming lol

[tidal knoll]

The pinned posts are the latest sitch.

[sand delta]

The reason we've figured out it's the Andromeda is there's a PDF about a Bavaria C50 from a sailing magazine about 5 years ago, and we found the video associated with the article.

[raw nexus]

Ok

[sand delta]

And it has Andromeda written on the side, they set off from a jetty right next to a Mola office, and the pdf writes about Mola (advertising them) a good few times. And you can tell it's C50 in the video from cross referencing the inside to the pictures of a C50 on Mola's website.

[raw nexus]

Super Sleuths

[sand delta]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=by3HCopNOP0

Might want to add this to the pins.

See Andromeda at 6:37.

[nimble gull]

Sorry for the “newbie” question but: has anyone asked the investigators whether there is any evidence of a 4th bomb? We’re assuming three explosions were intentional but is there a chance a sabotage on the fourth line was botched or nonfuntional somehow (especially given the length of time between the NS2/1 explosions)

[whole thunder]

thats a page from VHF enthusiasts who collect DSC-messages if i understand it correctly.
however i cant get it to work... it only searches, and searches and searches
http://www.yaddnet.org/pages/php/search_index.php

dont get any results

[junior moat]

uh nice find... that's the kind of stuff I enjoy 😄

[rustic bay]

Maybe it's getting hugged to death?

[whole thunder]

dont get to excited... i found some messages around the globe without any parameters. i guess the database is just SLOW

[rocky wolf]

Maybe they are only one part of the puzzle. i.e. joint effort where we are just looking at a smaller part of the whole picture

[junior moat]

hm, first of all it must have been 4 explosions in total (2 on the same NS2-A string)
and then the other thing is that the investigators don't want to share any of their results as of yet, they're being veery secretive in Denmark, Sweden, Germany alike.
The journalists have managed apparently to get some of them as sources and to talk about a few bits, but not too much, as we can see

[junior moat]

yes, that's what I assume as well

[idle crane]

This is interesting, if the Minerva Julie holding over the explosion site until the 13th would prevent them from running the operation until after the 13th, and the boat was back in port to be searched on the 18th. that would mean having to do the dives (and hold station) during a period of higher wind conditions.

[rocky wolf]

I think the main conflicting bit in this is the conflict of an apparent professional operation but too many depending variables for it to be a professional operation.

1. Risk of getting caught (probably mitigated in several ways)
2. Boat size and cargo
3. Sailing boat, wind speed. Fuel. Explosives
4. Extra equipment? What equipment and did they have any? Did they receive any at a "drop"?

Explosives are surprisingly easy to come by. Construction for example. I know a lot of org. criminals in Sweden get their explosives from shady contractors

[idle crane]

Has anyone attempted to work out what the dive operation might have looked like/the time taken? Been so long since I've dived but I've been around tech divers and wreck divers doing >80m dives in the past and these were not simple operations to observe. Totally feasible for small team, but duration and deco time are real limits, plus this is water with very low vis, presumably you'd want to have a line down, how do you lower 100kg of material, etc.

[rocky wolf]

This is also strange. This sounds like a state-requirement (remember most western states require things to be "by the book"). No Physician required when GRU or other rogue eastern elements perform their tasks. Either western state backing this up "by the book" or false-flag to make it look like it

Contractors in construction would probably have access to a larger amount of explosives. Depending on the country it would be more- or less regulated.

[velvet rain]

I've been trying to get that page working for at least half an hour now. It just seems like certain search configurations broke over time and were never fixed.

[whole thunder]

yeah. i got results for 6th of september after waiting for quite some time.... but nothing so far

[pine umbra]

well if the divers actually have to dive ~80 meters deep it would honestly be a rational decision to have a physician imo

[velvet rain]

Weird, times out almost immediately for me in cases of failure. No waiting involved.

[whole thunder]

if its working, it looks like this

(example)

[magic niche]

The yacht has been used I think in this competition, i emailed the guy (Alf) who steered it, let's see. https://www.ivent-sailing.com/?n=64

[velvet rain]

Yeah, I've seen that for some of the queries that work.

[velvet rain]

Okay, a query that repeatedly died almost immediately a few minutes ago now worked in like two minutes.

[rocky wolf]

Andromeda with MMSI 265711910 ? Right now in Malmö, Sweden

[sand delta]

Swedish registered.

[nimble gull]

Right. Was just curious how it is that everyone seems to assume blowing up 3/4 was intentional. Seems a bit early to draw that conclusion

[velvet rain]

Anyway, judging from the ship name/MMSI list on that page, I don't think it has ever seen one of our ships of interest.

[sand delta]

anyone know how we can watch the German news?

[raw nexus]

Which program?

[sand delta]

https://twitter.com/Georg_Heil/status/1633896872363409409

Georg Heil (@Georg_Heil)

Mehr zu unserer Recherche zum #Nordstream-Anschlag heute Abend um 21:45 Uhr bei @ARDKontraste im Ersten.
@GoetschenbergM @terrorismus @holger_stark

Twitter · Mar 9, 2023, 6:25 PM

[raw nexus]

N-tv.de has a Livestream on the page

ARD, ZDF also

I will look

[junior moat]

let's hope it's not geofenced

[dire canyon]

I can watch it live in Norway.

[whole thunder]

https://www.daserste.de/live/ard-livestream-embed-de-100.html

[nimble gull]

This is old but Swedish experts also give a much lower estimate of the amount of explosives needed than others. “100 kgs of dynamite”

https://www.svd.se/a/jlz8yz/attackdykaren-om-nord-stream-sa-kan-en-sprangning-gatt-till

[raw nexus]

Streber

[whole thunder]

jup 🙂

[tired monolith]

so whos going to live translate perfectly? 😉

[raw nexus]

Tunnel bear free

[velvet rain]

I've seen the 100 kg number used in reference to TNT before.

[junior moat]

😄 to be honest I fear they will mostly just summarize stuff that we already know from the written articles, but let's see

[sand delta]

Could we do a livestream?

[whole thunder]

yeah i can share here in discord

[rocky wolf]

Yeah sure, depending on where you leave from. If the story is that they left from Germany.. fairing on the Baltic sea you have to take certain things into account (like waves, currents etc).

[junior moat]

that'd be fun 📺 😉

[sand delta]

Is this the right stream?

[rocky wolf]

Mola only has one C50 ? I don't remember, just remember that certain models they had a couple of them

[subtle finch]

yes

[sand delta]

They have one 2023 model C50

[pine umbra]

minimum 2

[sand delta]

and two 2012/2013 model Cruiser 50

[tired monolith]

3 in total, one of them is 2023 built though

[nimble gull]

Yeah, this is literally "100 kgs of dynamite", which... I have no clue how that translates into underwater explosives.

[pine umbra]

Those three are available in Rostock

https://www.mola-yachtcharter-ostsee.de/Yachtcharter-Ostsee/Yachthafenresidenz-Rostock-Warnemuende.html

3 actually!

[mossy star]

One of those was made in 2023, so not that one

[pine umbra]

the 2012/2013 one is actually two

[mossy star]

Yeah. Andromeda is 2012.

[pine umbra]

(the second column is the number of individual vessels)

[sand delta]

Anz = Anzahl.

Anzahl = Number.

[rocky wolf]

Registered owner https://sailyachtsociety.se/jakterna/r-batar/andromeda/ .

Oh no wait. I have to hold my horses on this one. Hmmm.. Doesn't look like the Mola-boats.

[mossy star]

Wrong one?

Yeah totally unrelated

[pine umbra]

yes just same name

[velvet rain]

Yes

[sand delta]

The quality of German acting is poor.

Very disappointed. 😛

[dire canyon]

lol

[magic niche]

haha 😄

[velvet rain]

That's what we're paying our Rundfunkbeitrag for.

[sand delta]

And for foreigners like us to watch it for free 🙂

[dire canyon]

I'm just hoping the stream doesn't cut when Kontraste starts. It might be copyrighted and not available outside Germany for all I know.

[velvet rain]

Oma Gisela ist das egal

[sand delta]

If it is, will we do the screen watching thing here?

[rocky wolf]

https://boatbooking.at/sv/boat/hanse-508-andromeda-168

Advertised here to be connected to Greece.. Looks like the Mola-candidate

[sand delta]

That's a Hanse 508.

[rocky wolf]

you're right, sorry

[sand delta]

Its np

[velvet rain]

There are probably quite a few Greek ships named Andromeda, considering the origin of the name.

[sand delta]

We have the Cruiser 50 Andromeda here.

[rocky wolf]

From Swedish registry of ships 2013

[sand delta]

Nice.

German boats seem to be registered in the local district court

so for Rostock, most likely.

[velvet rain]

Exactly, the data is not publicly accessible though.

At least not without requesting it from the court.

[rocky wolf]

The first one (1957) is registered as a recreational motorboat
The second one "Andromeda of Sweden" is registered as a recreational sailingship

[sand delta]

Not an open source list unfortunately, and given the sensitivity now, walking into the court and asking for the data will get slapped down.

[velvet rain]

As far as I understand, registration in the Seeschiffsregister (what you were talking about) is mandatory if you want to request/register an MMSI.

[sand delta]

so Amtsgericht Rostock.

[junior moat]

as far as I understand it is publicly accessible, but not digital. you have to go there and look at folders 😉

[velvet rain]

That's why I didn't mention it earlier.

[sand delta]

https://www.deutsche-flagge.de/de/flagge/schiffsregistrierung/seeschiffsregister

The Ukrainian commando team soon

god this show is awful

(sorry for going off topic)

[whole thunder]

germant TV 😄

[rocky wolf]

which show is it

looks intense

[velvet rain]

It's in the "evil villain monologue" phase right now.

[raw nexus]

Jake and Rose 100 yearslater

[sand delta]

Jake didn't age too well.

[rocky wolf]

I grew up watching Inspector Rex, that's how I first got to know German

[sand delta]

Bad guy falls

[dire canyon]

lol, this show sucks

[junior moat]

German TV loves their murder mystery type shows

[sand delta]

If it turns out to be on a different channel

and we had to watch this stuff for nothing

[raw nexus]

I started the Swarm, fits our research a bit

[dire canyon]

Fingers crossed that stream won't cut.

[sand delta]

i think its very unlikely they got it that badly wrong

[whole thunder]

im sitting in #voicechat-chat

[dire canyon]

Fak, it cut

[magic niche]

fuck

[sand delta]

Go to the stream

In here

Marine baller is stresming it

And yes

They’ve got the picture from the 5 year old video

[magic niche]

got it via nordvpn

[rocky wolf]

He does not look like a Swedish born person (very qualified bias 😉 )

[velvet rain]

So it sounds like the woman being the doctor was just speculation by the investigators.

[sand delta]

Yes they’re using the Yacht tv video

Mola tells them they can’t comment

[rustic bay]

See #rules #6

[subtle finch]

They just said the van carrying the explosives was white.

[rustic bay]

You can DM things to bcat staff but not here

[tidal knoll]

They used two professionally forged passports, which were not Ukrainian, Russian or German.

[subtle finch]

But not 100% shure.

[harsh rock]

Please be mindful of the "no-doxxing' rule on this server.
Some stuff has been cutting it a bit fine.

[junior moat]

nothing new so far in this TV thing

[velvet rain]

So the path they reconstructed is just the known harbours?

[pine umbra]

yes I think the lines are not an accurate path

[dire canyon]

@tidal knoll You mind muting your mic?

[true barn]

assumption that this polish company owned by ukrainians was financially supported by a company „from western europe“ which itself is lead (Geschäftsführer) by a ukrainian

[rocky wolf]

Sorry, my bad. Won't repeat the same mistake.

[dire canyon]

@tidal knoll Thanks 🙂

[true barn]

this is the only news to me. maybe i missed it though

[tidal knoll]

I was sure it was off by default. 😊

[sand delta]

Is this about other stuff?

[velvet rain]

Yes

[true barn]

yes, it ended

[sand delta]

extremist in the Bundeswehr

[velvet rain]

The report is over

[sand delta]

Or BND spy

[junior moat]

to be precise he said "Geschäftsführer" so "CEO", not "owner"

[true barn]

yes, you‘re right.

confirmed

[rocky wolf]

Rogue German BND has been my 2nd guess after Russian OPs.

[nimble gull]

Would have guessed polish or baltic way before german, but who knows.

[rocky wolf]

Some "cell" of intel folks who disagree with the path that German politics seemed to be moving towards. With WW2 in memory

[magic niche]

was this known? they allegedly used a white van in Rostock to transport the explosives

[sand delta]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=teQ832xOeP0

In case anyone wants to go back and watch it.

[dire canyon]

So one thing I noticed in the report was that the team didn't have Russian, Ukrainian or German passports.

[rocky wolf]

No not the details that it was a white van

[dire canyon]

The fake passports that is.

[rocky wolf]

But without any corroborating evidence this means nothing, I mean you need more to get a hunch of what the lead is

[dire canyon]

Sure, it doesn't mean much at this point.

[true barn]

there’s two companies involved in this plot: polish company (ua owners) rented the boat. they were presumably financially supported by another western european company which is being lead by a ukrainian

[velvet rain]

If I understand this correctly, they are only saying that the government investigators managed to reconstruct the route. Not necessarily that the journalists managed to do the same.

[rocky wolf]

" they were presumably financially supported by another western european company which is being lead by a ukrainian" what makes you draw this conclusion ?

[true barn]

they said it

in ard

their terror expert

[nimble gull]

There was some noise on twitter yesterday about the ukrainian sponsor. "the name will come out", like it was a known actor... any leads?

[dire canyon]

Poroshenko

[rocky wolf]

If German journalists have the same right to information as we have in Sweden, they might have been able to get it through requesting it before it was realised it should be classified

[rocky wolf]

I was unable to hear any sound. Just heard sound of discord but not the stream

[sand delta]

Interview done by DR, and the Christianso facebook posted this morning about a boatload of journalists arriving

[nimble gull]

Nooo, really? Ukrainian politics are infuriating...

[junior moat]

based on TheTimes article, which has some extra stuff that seems pretty speculative (like this "peculiar calling card" that the sponsor alledgedly left behind)

[velvet rain]

The German investigations started in December, apparently. Not sure if that was mentioned before.

[dire canyon]

Just a joke from my side. Sorry 😛

[nimble gull]

hah, thanks. I was literally doing the fucking meme math lady

[rocky wolf]

And, just to be clear.. we are all trying to find the truth. But I want to take the stage and say Hi to all GRU- and FSB-officers who most probably have joined us.

[nimble gull]

Yeah, such a weird comment. On the whole it seems like a lot of people are sitting on a lot of info right now.

[thick crag]

privyet comrade

[junior moat]

was thinking also maybe these 6 crew members are in the channel just seeing us struggle and thinking to maybe drop a hint at some point 😄

[sand delta]

Given the random stuff Mr. Grozev has been accused of by Russia

I'm placing my bet that Christo set the charges.

[rocky wolf]

I think Putin set the charges, his next videos of extreme masculinity - debunking any thoughts of him being sick. Freediving and placing the charges with a short rope. Documenting the whole process and sailing away on his own

[tidal knoll]

SVR: ignored again...

[thick crag]

bulgarian passports are neither german, nor ukrainian, nor russian…it fits.

[rocky wolf]

I regard SVR as a "we do most stuff under the cover of exchange and we also do stuff internally.. in YOUR country"

[true barn]

somewhere in the area, in some harbor, sits a lonely harbormaster in tears; the only one not getting any calls regarding 50 foot yachts, diesel supplies and suspicious visitors, while their peers are getting all the talking time

[sand delta]

Annoyingly, as far as we've reached with digging down and finding more and more photos, videos of the Andromeda, we've not found any trace of it from webcams on any of the days.

[rocky wolf]

Really, I feel for him or her. Touch spot

[mortal halo]

Being a German journalist, I am quite sure that FOI requests mostly end as soon as there is a investigation. And German instutions immediately stop handing out any information as soon as they are notified. I rather think most information I have seen presented was aquired through personal contacts of the journalists to the prosecutors.

[thick crag]

what cameras were checked?

[rocky wolf]

I understand that, higher values at play of course

[sand delta]

We've checked the Hohe Dune

And there might be a suspect vessel leaving on the 7th

but Christianso has no webcams, and Wieck's cameras are broke/non-archiving

[rocky wolf]

The actors probably knew about this.

[sand delta]

https://www.bergfex.com/sommer/rostock/webcams/c17739/?date=2022-09-06

https://twitter.com/shashj/status/1633919713087561735?s=12&t=Q1i7CXA9uCM2A0GVVeYndA

Shashank Joshi (@shashj)

There has been a lot of intelligence in the news recently: covid-19 origins, Havana syndrome & Nord Stream explosions. Intelligence-based claims are often eye-catching & appealing. My piece on why it's important to look closely at the confidence level.
https://t.co/7e8x75vil4

Twitter · Mar 9, 2023, 7:56 PM

[obtuse hill]

The German TV report brings only a few new things up:

• the "passports" for the yacht registration were not German, Russian or Ukrainian
• the woman is not necessarily a doctor, acc to the report the woman was described to the police as "sehr zierlich" (very petite)
• the group used apparently a white van to bring stuff to the boat
• the "Andromeda" is rented by Mola company from Rügen, so Mola is not the original owner, only subletting it
• the Polish company which rented the boat according to the reports has two Ukrainian owners and got money from a western European company where the "Geschäftsführer" (CEO) is Ukrainian too

[sand delta]

Maybe a bit off-topic but worth a read

[thick crag]

thanks

[velvet rain]

Where are you getting that last bullet point from? Did I miss something in the report?

[sand delta]

Surely subletting is illegal?

[true barn]

i don’t remember any remarks regarding subletting

[rocky wolf]

Mola owns boats of the type which seems to be the one rented in this case. They have rented it to the polish company as I understand, which is not illegal

[obtuse hill]

2:42 Min it says "angemietet von einer Firma auf Rügen" (rented by a company on the island Rügen) https://www.rbb-online.de/kontraste/archiv/kontraste-vom-09-03-2023/neue-erkenntnisse-zum-anschlag-auf-nord-stream-pipelines.html

[velvet rain]

"von" means "from" here

[sand delta]

The part where they go into Mola

around 03:00

It seems they've been instructed by the police to say nothing to media.

That pretty much confirms the investigators are looking into Andromeda, right?

[junior moat]

yes

[true barn]

totally, they said because of the investigation and the visit of the police, they’re not allowed to talk

[velvet rain]

Yes, that's what they said.

[junior moat]

one thing I'm wondering is whether the investigators deliberately leaked this part of their ongoing investigation because they hope people will turn up with information about this crew of 6 ... but really don't want other things to become public yet

[sand delta]

There's only a couple Mola offices

and it can't be the one in Hohe Dune

Note the Cash sign next to it

[velvet rain]

Knowing enough German police officers: One of the investigators probably told a buddy too much over a few beers.

[subtle finch]

Whats the point of geolocating the Mola office visited by the journalists?

[sand delta]

For added context I guess.

[junior moat]

so we can camp in front of it until they give us info 😉

[velvet rain]

Pretty sure it was the Rostock one

They wouldn't have instructed a random, unrelated office. not to comment.

[sand delta]

We dress up like 6 non-Ukrainian/Russian/Germans in diving gear and come back asking for our deposit

[velvet rain]

Great idea, I'm in.

[magic niche]

One of my emails came back with three names & cell phones numbers at Mola. One in particular "definitely" has the MMSI they write. But I'm not sure Mola will provide the info (in the ARD thing the blurred Mola-guy says as much). At any rate now it's too late, I'll try tomorrow morning.

[harsh rock]

It could well be one of the smaller fabricated pier offices and not the Breege head office.... small side window (with cash sign on the next building) and corrugated iron construction

[nimble gull]

Seems likely. Given the drips of info that we have, the details about the crew (gender, professions, passports), the van etc, it seems like a lot is being left unsaid.

[velvet rain]

The last point is Haus Weida

That's in Breege, apparently. https://www.mola.de/Pension/Haus-Weida-Breege.html

And it's pretty unlikely you can rent one of their Breege houses from Rostock.

Found the door he's entering on a photo:
https://goo.gl/maps/4DEpTmp7siosoKBY9

[sand delta]

This?

[subtle finch]

In the report it is only said that reporters visited an office of charter company to ask questions, theres no claim that this place was visited by any of the suspects!

[magic niche]

Another email: "I assume that the yacht (Andromeda) is currently ashore at the Mola winter storage facility in Dranske on the island of Rügen."

Might be BS, but worth checking out. Also, I mean if its being investigated, I'm not sure they'd just leave it there.

[velvet rain]

That's the photo I tried to link above

[harsh rock]

Yeah.... there are trees and a house in the reflection of the door in the video

[whole thunder]

Even the sign is pretty similar

[velvet rain]

Even the piece of paper in the window matches

[sand delta]

ye, it was mentioned earlier

of how to get the high res image

click the three dots, click report a problem and it takes you to the reporting page where you can find the high resolution version of the image

[sand delta]

oh hmm

https://goo.gl/maps/gfsLPV8x44Xrby1w8

[velvet rain]

That's the reception from the other side

[sand delta]

Also has the maximum two persons enter sign.

[hoary maple]

how are they meant to get 6 navy seals in there then

[sand delta]

2 very long trenchcoats

3 people each.

[ashen halo]

Nice little summary of the events in these two threads:
https://twitter.com/Schwartzesque/status/1633852643373363203

Mattathias Schwartz (@Schwartzesque)

w/r/t Nord Stream 2, this morning is one of those moments when Twitter OSINT guys appear to be several days ahead of mainstream national-security reporters — myself included.

Twitter · Mar 9, 2023, 3:30 PM

https://twitter.com/Schwartzesque/status/1633929003202408448

Mattathias Schwartz (@Schwartzesque)

WSJ Day 2: Germans were mostly right on Day 1 https://t.co/gYJgPIegKC

Twitter · Mar 9, 2023, 8:33 PM

[raw nexus]

https://twitter.com/menora1/status/1633946647112695808?t=FY9S49g5pynZy86Nv2I_tA&s=19

Ingolf Berger (@menora1)

@AricToler If you know this boat - you will know that it cannot transport bottles of air for the diving, nor fix them. I tried it! Forget about the explosives.

Twitter · Mar 9, 2023, 9:43 PM

[ashen halo]

A local has told me this is where they store their boats

[chilly prawn]

depends on how many bottles of air you need, and if you need a compressor. but I can see it's doable on even much smaller boat

[obtuse hill]

The reporters are definitely there

[velvet rain]

That's also what that weird PDF earlier was about, by the way. Bringing the ships from Rostock to Breege for winter storage.

[sand delta]

The one where they were racing?

https://www.sailpartner.de/wp-content/uploads/Yacht-Ausgabe-2015-24.pdf

[raw nexus]

I know nothing about diving so I just linked it

[velvet rain]

Yep, that one.

It's basically their annual ritual for getting the fleet from Rostock to Rügen.

[tidal knoll]

They get to use the boats for a few extra days in return for taking them into storage, or something like that, right?

[chilly prawn]

I know a tiny bit about diving, and I sail in the baltic on 30 footer...

[velvet rain]

Exactly!

[velvet rain]

"The deal: He transfer the ships with his people, in return they don't have to pay charter fees."

[true barn]

this is in fact pretty common. i.e. you get paid by bringing a yacht back to point A from point B, where trip A->B is very likeable and trip B->A is tedious. same with rental cars, fwiw.

[velvet rain]

That raises an interesting point: The Andromeda was very likely already in storage in Breege when German authorities started their investigation. So it must've been searched in storage.

[sand delta]

Actually, I'll do them all and post them in one go.

Apologies if that was against the rules.

[subtle finch]

It was searched between 18.01.2023 - 20.01.2023 so yes.

[nimble gull]

If we assume this is doable in terms of diving equipment, explosives etc from a small boat, what would they need to locate the pipelines?

[velvet rain]

I mean if the authorities knew about it earlier, they might now have allowed it to be transferred. But that clearly didn't happen.

[sand delta]

Pipelines are marked on navigational charts.

[chilly prawn]

GPS

[sand delta]

Unless you mean from an underwater perspective. But the above water portion would just require you to have a GPS yea.

[nimble gull]

Those are murky waters though, I assume you need some sorts of guidance to dive down, especially with 100+kgs of explosives.

[junior moat]

yeah just read another fascinating take from a professional diver who says it's all very doable with a small boat
no anchor needed, pick up the divers wherever they plop up
rebreathers very helpful
~40 minute operation per location
https://www.ostsee-zeitung.de/panorama/experte-zur-nord-stream-sprengung-kein-hexenwerk-fuer-erfahrene-taucher-2HFIBXP4KNCPFD7VM22A4SXUAA.html

[nimble gull]

This all seems too easy to pull off, if it’s true

[sand delta]

For real: "Unfortunately according to the Mola Yachting website, these two yachts are not equipped with an AIS (Automatic Identification System), which means that the movements cannot be tracked using ship tracking site like MarineTraffic."

https://oalexanderdk.substack.com/p/the-nord-stream-andromeda-story-what

[chilly prawn]

how about SAR?

[restive kelp]

I can believe the diving part, but the amount of explosives plus the diving equipment (enough air for multiple trips) for all 3 explosions would be a lot for this boat to carry.

[sand delta]

You'd have to know exactly where it was, and when, to follow its course, as I understand it.

[nimble gull]

Wow that’s a great interview. Matches what the Swedish experts that I linked to earlier said. Amazing this kind of stuff doesn’t happen more often then..

[chilly prawn]

yeah, but it could confirm/deny presence of a boat without AIS after crossreferencing with AIS data

[restive kelp]

We know when and where it started

[sand delta]

Bingo!

[sand delta]

Has there been an SAR verification of its starting position?

[restive kelp]

We have visual webcam footage

[true barn]

what if Andromeda was only one of two vessels involved and another one held further equipment. sailing around for two+ weeks with explosives and stopping in several harbors doesn’t make sense, unless they needed to pick stuff up from several locations due to logistical demands

[sand delta]

With nothing else, I expect there's a need to further verify the imagery using Sat/ SAR.

[restive kelp]

#1072947857654554624 message

[chilly prawn]

https://www.barrons.com/news/nord-stream-leaks-due-to-blasts-equal-to-several-hundred-kilos-of-tnt-report-01664539807 - if this is correct, it makes the boat hypothesis a bit less likely - the stuff on these boats is almost exclusively hauled manually, bag by bag. that would be likely to raise suspicion in the harbor. assuming of course it was conventional explosive. (I'm NOT going to speculate, but I'd say briefcase nuke would be ideal for this kind of job)

[sand delta]

Yes, I remember these from earlier...

[modest basalt]

Sorry if this has already been asked or answered: One of the pipelines has 50m missing, would one of the charges be enough to remove that much section? Or would it be a smaller hole, and then the pressure releasing tears the rest of the pipe apart?

[sand delta]

The section that blew is designed for 177.5 bar

the pressure of the seawater at 80m is 130 psi, 9 bar or so.

(In NS1's case)

[sand delta]

That's 2574.4198 psi for the freaks in the room...

Whether it was at 177.5 bar is something I haven't checked, but it's a considerable pressure differentiation.

NS1 wasn't pumping when it was blown, right?

[junior moat]

it wasn't pumping, but under pressure

[restive kelp]

Both were not pumping

[junior moat]

this is what a pipeline rupture looks like without any external explosion involved, just material failure. and NS probably had higher pressure than this one

[modest basalt]

It actually made that crater???

[sand delta]

I've seen articles saying it was at 105 bar.

[modest basalt]

Or did they dig it out lol

[sand delta]

and went from that to about 7 bar, at the German station.

[junior moat]

no you can see where the pipe was thrown in the back 😄

[sand delta]

Strange question: What's the smallest charge that could have been used, in conjunction with the amplifying effect of water, to register as 500kg bomb?

[modest basalt]

I never realized they had that much pressure hahaha. Cool!

[sand delta]

See here.

Or from the pinned comment:

There is an estimation of how much material explosive was used, which is 1000 pounds (around 500kg) of TNT. The more likely explosive used is RDX. RDX is water insoluble and can be used for shaped charge projectiles. However, this means that around 300kg of RDX would have been used per explosion, as 1kg of RDX = 1.5kg of TNT. "Only" 25-30kg of RDX could have been enough to blow up the pipeline, and while you want to add an extra to make sure it doesn't fail, this is a very significant volume (~166L). [RDX data is from Wikipedia]

Just guesstimates.

Do we know if the seismologists that registered the blasts posted their findings anywhere?

[sand delta]

🧐

[junior moat]

https://www.geus.dk/om-geus/nyheder/nyhedsarkiv/2022/sep/seismologi

https://www.snsn.se/stora/Events_20220926.php

[restive kelp]

Yes that is what Oliver Alexander was theorising for the NS 2 leak. However it’s hard to understand why an explosion without explosives would not be known by now.

[junior moat]

the thing I'm really missing about these explosions is any hydroacoustic recordings. I know the Baltic Sea gets constantly monitored for sounds like drilling etc to protect the marine mammals etc

but none of the public research institutions seems to have published anything

Germany's "national noise registry" I don't know what to do with this database, seems outdated, etc
https://www.bsh.de/EN/DATA/Marine-use/National_Noise_Registry/national-noise-registry_node.html

[junior moat]

yeah I don't believe that part of his theory as well

[velvet rain]

Additionally, NS 1 was built from many 13 m long pipe segments that were somehow joined together (welded, I guess). Would a structural failure in one segment even propagate to the surrounding segments?

[sand delta]

SNSN has registered two probable explosions in the southern Baltic Sea on Monday, September 26. The first took place at 02:03:24 Swedish time and the second at 19:03:50 Swedish time. The first event south-southeast of Bornholm gave rise to ground movements corresponding to a magnitude 1.8 earthquake, while the second event north-northeast of Bornholm generated ground movements corresponding to a magnitude 2.3 earthquake.

[pure vine]

iirc they didnt mention explosive residue in the ns2 leak

[velvet rain]

Maybe explosives were placed at several points to cut the pipeline and the pieces in-between were blown clear by the gas pressure.

[sand delta]

So the one at 02:03:24 was the one lone leak on NS2A in the southern, whilst 19:03:50 was the event that caused 3 leaks clustered, one to NS2A, one to NS1A and one to NS1B.

[velvet rain]

More details on the pattern of craters: https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/nord-stream-1-operator-says-it-has-completed-initial-data-gathering-damaged-2022-11-02/

[sand delta]

So NS2A was already screwed by the time the second leak much further north went off on another part of NS2A.

[velvet rain]

That part seems so weird to me. Why risk trying to blow the other pipeline almost a day later? That just seems incredibly risky.

[modest basalt]

What if they used timers?

[velvet rain]

They would have to have done that anyway. Or some other kind of remote detonation device.

You don't want to be anywhere near a large amount of methane bubbling up.

[modest basalt]

Ah that is very true

[sand delta]

My two cents: people fish with sticks of dynamite, which causes devastating destruction within the blast area. Could we be chasing a whale when all there was is a minnow?

Also just as a measure of distance in the northern cluster, the north eastern one is about 1800 metres away from the south eastern one, and about 6200 metres away from the western one, with the south eastern one being only moderately closer to the eastern one with 5100 metres from the western one.

Since they are a relatively considerable distances apart, it would need to be separate charges, thus separate explosive events. Surely the distance between would mean a time delay?

https://dosits.org/galleries/technology-gallery/basic-technology/explosive-sound-sources/

"The energy of an explosive sound source is broadband, but dominated by low frequencies, particularly at distances away from the source. The largest peak in the frequency spectrum of the signal from an explosive sound source is at a frequency equal to the reciprocal of the time interval between the shock wave and the first bubble pulse, called the bubble frequency. The bubble frequency therefore increases as the time interval becomes shorter. The time interval between the shock wave and the first bubble pulse for a 0.82-kg (1.8-lb) SUS charge detonated at a depth of 18.3 m (60 ft) is about 0.12 seconds, giving a bubble frequency of about 8 Hz. The bubble frequency increases as the depth of detonation becomes greater, but decreases with increasing charge weight. Most of the energy at higher frequencies comes from the shock wave."

[velvet rain]

Not an explosives expert, but if they can trigger the explosives remotely, there shouldn't be a reason why they couldn't do it simultaneously.

[sand delta]

True.

[sand delta]

I don’t mean them going off together

I mean that they’d be picked up separately

[sand delta]

As they were, correct?

SNSN has registered two probable explosions in the southern Baltic Sea on Monday, September 26. The first took place at 02:03:24 Swedish time and the second at 19:03:50 Swedish time. The first event south-southeast of Bornholm gave rise to ground movements corresponding to a magnitude 1.8 earthquake, while the second event north-northeast of Bornholm generated ground movements corresponding to a magnitude 2.3 earthquake.

[velvet rain]

Oh, good point.

Speed of sound in water is approximately 1500 m/s.

[sand delta]

Surely they would record one explosion reaching their measuring site at 19:03:50, another coming a couple seconds later, and finally the third a couple seconds after that

Small delays in the bang getting to them I mean.

[sand delta]

Explosions travel faster than sound underwater, yes?

[velvet rain]

Near the explosion, sure.

I'm wrong about the speed of sound in water being relevant, anyway. The quote is about seismic waves.

[sand delta]

"The pressure difference across the gas-water interface causes a shock wave, which moves outward at speeds greater than the speed of sound in seawater (~1,500 m/s). The shock wave consists of a nearly instantaneous increase in pressure, which then rapidly decays."

[junior moat]

"Update 2022-09-30

Today's data analysis and discussions with other Scandinavian seismologists mean that we believe that it is likely that there were two explosions in the area northeast of Bornholm. "

[sand delta]

Ah, I see.

Hopefully tommorrow with all the reporting today, in German and Danish news media, might shake a couple sightings and pictures out into the public

[chilly prawn]

so 2 explosions for three holes?

[sand delta]

There are approximately 8 seconds between the explosions and analysis in a three-dimensional velocity model shows that they occurred roughly 6 km apart. However, the uncertainties in the locations are so great, greater than 3 km, that the areas overlap and the explosions could take place closer to each other. Or closer to the gas leak. Refined analysis is in progress

The two close to each other would be close enough to be undetectable as separate bangs.

[chilly prawn]

okay, that would make sense

hm, and the NS2 SE of Bornhom?

[sand delta]

That was 17 hours earlier.

Also, theoretically, the reason why NS2B wasn’t hit could be down to not being able to identify the two as one or the other underwater.

It’s not like they are colour coded.

[chilly prawn]

yeah, I know... I just couldn't find any report of it being noticed on seismograph as well

but then I found this, so I guess the mystery in my head is solved: https://www.geus.dk/om-geus/nyheder/nyhedsarkiv/2022/sep/seismologi

[boreal plover]

I'm really curious about the very fast nano or millisecond physics of a highly pressurised pipeline, surrounded by high (but much lower) water pressure, and how the various pressure waves (from the explosion itself,, from the drop in pressure within the gas and within the steel pipe walls) propagate and interact. Doubt that info will become OSINT any time soon, though.

[boreal plover]

can't see that being practical. Sea water blocks RF very efficiently except at very low frequencies. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Communication_with_submarines

[chilly prawn]

btw, there were almost ideal conditions for sailing from NS2 explosion site to NS1 explosion site that day. (5-6 hours long comfortable trip)

[chilly prawn]

They could be theoretically detonated it via sonar

[sand delta]

That was Hersh’s supposition. That Norway’s brand new P-8 MPAs flew over the sites and dropped sonobuoys which set the charges off.

Charges that had been laid by Norwegian navy MCM vessels weeks before.

Obviously that idea is batshit conspiracy theory.

But sure, it’s possible to do that.

[rocky wolf]

https://www.spiegel.de/panorama/justiz/hamburg-mehrere-tote-und-schwerverletzte-nach-schiesserei-a-ac1ed7ac-4ff1-43ea-9454-e4ff77a0ae07

6 people shot dead in Hamburg. Could this be linked to Nord Stream ?

[sand delta]

Jehovah’s have an awful habit of shunning people when they leave their church, most likely someone upset their family shunning them as a result of such, and taking it out on the JW community.

[boreal plover]

Yup, batshit. Why bother trying to synchronise the bangs, when relatively simple timers could do it, and it doesn't gain anything for the attackers anyway?

[sand delta]

Rest in peace those who’ve died of course, but almost certainly not connected.

[chilly prawn]

yeah, I know. and timer is much more likely

[modest basalt]

Do you think the group would have been long gone before the first explosion went off? I.e. they had already planted the second charge before the first went off

[sand delta]

Almost certainly.

[chilly prawn]

I'd say they likely rigged NS2 bomb, moved to safe distance, visually confirmed everything worked properly, and then moved to the second location. and they hit the wrong NS2 pipe at second location

otherwise, why they wouldn't blow up all 4 pipes at the second location?

[sand delta]

Knowing that the Minerva Julie was above the site until the 13th, and they were seen on Christiansø 16-18th, long gone is probably only couple days, but I wouldn’t be sticking around for the fireworks.

[modest basalt]

Cool guys don’t look at explosions

[sand delta]

Perhaps they did the Southern charge between Wieck on the 7th and getting into Christiansø on the 16th, whilst waiting for the Minerva Julie to get out of the way at the northern site.

[modest basalt]

Sorry, I had to

[sand delta]

Sadly, I doubt any of this is open source checkable.

Perhaps they chanced across fishermen or whatnot at sea, and maybe if they remember it, the police might have a rough idea of such locations to piece it together.

For anyone who has institutional access:

https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/20414196211017923

A practical review study on shaped charge in the last two decades (2000–2020)

Do I want my university to know I’ve been searching about explosives

[rustic bay]

Everyone called this joint
https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1633973589941551104?t=g6GXzhi-7yh8SYSlDcK3SA&s=19

Reuters (@Reuters)

Tiny Baltic island finds itself 'a pawn' in Nord Stream gas drama https://t.co/HeMXlo23Aq

Twitter · Mar 9, 2023, 11:30 PM

[chilly prawn]

scihub has it

[sand delta]

But with no AIS, all the sites in question having no, poor quality or unarchived, etc webcams, very unlikely you’ll be able to piece any of this together besides the occasional unavoidable paperwork recorded from pulling into Wieck/Christiansø and having to pay a berth fee, or maybe eagle eyed fishermen/islanders who’ve nothing else to do with their boring life 😛 than to be nosey

[sand delta]

Practically the entire world called me yesterday. I got calls from 87 different people," island caretaker Soren Thiim Andersen, the highest authority on the island that is Denmark's easternmost point, told Reuters.

Plus one email asking about diesel from a Bellingcat server member.

[rustic bay]

I was combing through trip advisor vacation pics looking for diesel pumps. I'm not trying to bother that guy

[sand delta]

Just 2 short of the Christiansø population.

Which is 89.

Or one short if you don’t include him.

[sand delta]

Any sign of CCTV or other security systems?

Obviously not publicly available, but surely from a security point of view they’d have a couple, it’s a MoD run island after all.

[rustic bay]

Only spot was a restaurant with 10 pics, mostly of food. But I have more places to search.

People on vacation love to take pics of scenery

[sand delta]

https://maps.app.goo.gl/ZsF52nopcUPCr7tCA?g_st=ic

Does that look like a diesel pump

Or one of those now old fashioned public phones?

Also after searching through Germany so much, i forgot to check street view, it’s pretty well covered for an island not going to lie.

[rustic bay]

i don't know enough to say but it could also be an air pump, a vacuum. those things are common at maintenance stations

but let's see

[sand delta]

The email will tell all 🙂

Although we picked a bad day to ask lol

[pure vine]

Does anybody have the internal deck plan of a similar sized yacht?

Because there was speculation wrt the Minerva Julie, could it be the FSB used the Andromeda as a tender to the Minerva Julie to bring in a dive crew and the material

We know small yachts carry absurd loads somewhat well (south American cartels use them often across the Atlantic)

[chilly prawn]

https://sailboatdata.com/sailboat/bavaria-cruiser-50

[sand delta]

We have videos of the inside of it

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=by3HCopNOP0

[pure vine]

So the main issue is that it's a 12 ton displacement with an extra 2tons of explosives

Maybe they used the explosives as ballast? And picked up some ballast from the MJ

[chilly prawn]

you're not removing ballast from this kind of boat

[harsh rock]

Could be a gas bottle and regulator

[hollow remnant]

2 tons of explosives is a bit much

[chilly prawn]

according to Navily, there is no diesel in Christianso... https://www.navily.com/port/christians-o/5002

[sand delta]

Found out that the Cruiser 50 has an immersion rate of 453 kg/cm.

Also known (in my job) as TPC

[rustic bay]

there's a lot of pretty recent pics on google reviews of the island. I'm paging through them looking for a better shot of whatever that is

[sand delta]

This means that for every 453kg you add onto the bare boat (which just has the hull and other bare essential parts), you submerge the hull 1 cm.

[rustic bay]

the reviews say there is a ferry from Bornholm, so people are going to be posting their trip pics in reviews for the Bornholm ferry, so I will check there too

[chilly prawn]

what is the significance of the diesel there, btw?

[sand delta]

It may want to refuel

https://escolaportbarcelona.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/Bavaria-50-Cruiser-Owners-Manual.pdf

[sand delta]

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&ved=2ahUKEwiM4_OhitD9AhWjnGoFHbWLDQwQFnoECA4QAQ&url=https%3A%2F%2Fescolaportbarcelona.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2022%2F02%2FBavaria-50-Cruiser-Owners-Manual.pdf&usg=AOvVaw3bFyrdJLfOIE0_QOTE9R1L

[sand delta]

Ignore the horrible quality, it just really is that bad

The recommended load (which is how much weight in terms of people, stores and luggage you bring on) is 1800kg.

Used up about 500kg at least with your 6 people

[pure vine]

Leaves 1300kgs for diving kit+explosives

Also at 100m you're likely diving on heliox, so would be interesting to calculate how many cylinders they'd need

[harsh rock]

More likely rebreathers

[pure vine]

Even with rebreathers you'd likely need to purge nitrogen so at least 1 O2 and 1 heliox

80m is definitely past nitrogen narcosis depth and probably already in oxygen toxicity levels

[sand delta]

https://www.ostsee-zeitung.de/panorama/experte-zur-nord-stream-sprengung-kein-hexenwerk-fuer-erfahrene-taucher-2HFIBXP4KNCPFD7VM22A4SXUAA.html

This was posted before.

Experienced divers do. Anyone who has completed level 2 in our diving school would be able to do this. And especially for those who regularly go wreck diving, a dive to the pipeline would not be a problem for them. Just around Bornholm there is a pile of wrecks lying at a depth of about 80 meters - about the same depth as the pipeline. They are dived regularly. A few years ago we visited the German aircraft carrier Graf Zeppelin, which is at 88 meters. Any well trained technical diver gets there. In theory, the dive, including placement of the explosives, can be completed within 40 minutes

Talks about rebreathers as Tehuringa eluded to as well.

[chilly prawn]

seems like trimix with 16% O2, 40% He and 44% N2 might work for the entire profile on open circuit?

[pure vine]

The effects of nitrogen narcosis are highly variable among divers with all divers being significantly impaired while breathing air at 60 to 70 meters, whereas some divers are affected at 30 meters. The effects are not progressive with time while depth is maintained, but symptoms progress and new symptoms develop as a diver descends deeper to greater pressures. The narcotic symptoms observed are quickly reversible upon ascent

I'd say it's doable to reach the depth at this mix, but being able to handle explosives in this would be dangerous

[chilly prawn]

it should be fine at depth, I'd more worried about only 16% O2 at surface level

[thick crag]

i figure if you’re bombing a pipeline, you probably don’t have that much concern for your future wellbeing

[sand delta]

The one thing that is still standing out to me is the “investigators found residues from the explosives and it was clear that those responsible had never cleaned up after the operation.”

Which, sure, people are lazy, and perhaps they assumed it would never be tied back to the Andromeda so why care, or if the Andromeda ever came under suspicion they were screwed anyways, but even still, it only raises more questions.

Very sloppy.

[chilly prawn]

depends on what they mean by "cleaning up". you usually clean charter boats before handing them back (as in remove bedsheets, do dishes, etc...)

[sand delta]

You have to hand the yacht back in cleaned condition anyways, surely a proper scrub down wouldn’t have been a ridiculous ask?

Yea, that’s what I mean, if they have to do that anyways, how can I believe that they did that, but apparently left out any attempt to adequately wipe down the surfaces to remove any non visible residues.

[thick crag]

how hard is it to properly remove explosive residue? (and is chatting this on discord going to put me on a list?)

[chilly prawn]

what I understand from explosives detection is these things are awfully sensitive

[chilly prawn]

My thought was they didn't do this clean up (which is what was mentioned in the article). it's not like they'd care about their safety deposit...

[sand delta]

Same reason why they likely didn’t break the speed limit when driving the van to the harbour to load the explosives

Last thing you want is to attract any attention or be rememberable in any way.

Recommended cargo weight is 1800kg, with 500kg for passengers at least. The articles mention 500kg explosives but let’s say 350-500 if rdx was used. That leaves roughly 800kg, does that sound like a reasonable amount of luggage to you divers/sailors?

[thick crag]

maybe someone got injured and they didn't have the time to deal w/the injury + cleaning

[sand delta]

We’re talking 2-3 weeks of sailing, right?

[subtle finch]

Traces of explosives can mean very much or very little, just to make an analogy, gunshot residue is found on someone's hands days after they have fired a gun.

[modest basalt]

What dates were the Minerva Julie over the site again?

[sand delta]

Food stores

Spare clothes

[chilly prawn]

it's not like the boat would have problems with handling a couple hundred kilos more, especially in those conditions

[subtle finch]

There was an ongoing deabate in Germany about automatic number-plate recognition taking place in the last years, maybe the speeding camera reference is also about this. The automatic number-plate recognition lacks solid legal guidlines and is mostly in the greyzone of police work.

[chilly prawn]

yeah, but as far as I know not cleaning the boat properly is quite common in charter world?

[sand delta]

To be fair, you don’t want to be anywhere near the limit either, even if you’re fine to go a little bit over it, don’t want to go out to sea and have to call mayday to your boat full of boom boom

[chilly prawn]

yeah

[sand delta]

According to reporting, the investigation has requested such things from the regions

https://www.spiegel.de/panorama/justiz/nord-stream-explosionen-fahnder-rekonstruieren-kurs-der-segeljacht-andromeda-a-a0dd90c2-185f-4d35-a5ae-b0bf9ce7f6d4?sara_ref=re-so-app-sh

[chilly prawn]

tbh, I've been checked by coast guard near Flensburg late September, and they just checked our IDs, didn't want boat paperwork and didn't want to look inside.

but yeah, some more thorough random coast guard visit would ruin their day for sure

[subtle finch]

I just wanted to point out that this could include the possibility of automatic numberplate recognition so they could be recorded even if they had not been speeding. I however don't know what the current practice is regarding this topic in this region of Germany and how the database is managed, if theres a need to "request this information".

[sand delta]

Oh sorry, yes, I agree.

[subtle finch]

The manual also states "excluding tank capacities", does this include the fresh water tank? It seems to be 560l and you don't need this full when doing multiple stops...

[sand delta]

I’d imagine you’re being given the yacht in full condition.

[subtle finch]

That is even more... but I don't think there should be a weigt issue at all, my rough calculations:
The boat is built for 12 people and (hopefully) designed that 1800kg is enough payload including luggage. Taking 75kg as its used most of the time as standard weight for one person.
1800 - (75 * 12) = 900 kg left for luggage
900 / 12 = 75kg <- bavaria thought this is enough per person (for how long?)

The calculation for 6 people:
(6 * 75) + (6 * 75) = 900kg
1800 - 900 = 900kg left for cargo + the possibility to sail with less fresh water

[subtle finch]

I don't know how its handled on a Bavaria Cruiseer 50 but on "smaller" boats fresh water is a rather nasty tank you keep clean with chemicals and most of the people are using bottled water unless they can't avoid it ("fresh water " only for showering and using the toilet).

[sand delta]

Hmm, yea, I’d not be drinking the water that came out of a rental boat, can’t know how the filters are being maintained.

I dunno about the weight saving though, because for every bit of fresh (“ostensibly drinkable”) water you get rid of, you’d need to replace that with bottled water

[subtle finch]

Shure, how long did they use the boat?

[sand delta]

Up to 3 weeks, most likely.

If rented on the 6th, and if it was still in Christiansø on the 18th, definitely not getting it back in time for 2 weeks on the 20th.

On land they say you need about 2-3 litres per person a day, so about 20 litres let’s say.

[subtle finch]

So with my rough calculations 900kg cargo + even more due to less fresh water (but this is balanced out by taking more bottled water on board) and 2 known possible refilling spots.

[subtle finch]

2-3 litres drinking, even more considering cooking.

[sand delta]

And being out in the sun, being physically active, it being uncomfortable on the water, etc.

It’s by no means a small boat though, so I think they’d be fine in terms of weight capacity, absent bringing onboard a lot of comically heavy things.

Assuming they had to do four 80m 40 minute or so dives, even with rebreathers, how much tanks would that need? Likely nowhere near putting us anywhere near capacity of course, even if you double it for buddy diving

Very hard to guesstimate a number though, for example food. Do we assume they survive on instant noodles and MREs for the time period, in which case the weight of food is negligible, or is the fact a cook is brought onboard a sign that they brought with them a non insignificant amount of food stores?

[subtle finch]

So there had to be a stop to refuel and most likely also to refill water (and food) by just calculating the water consumption (without cooking, showering, ...) with 6 * 3l (per day) * 21 days = 378l

[sand delta]

Maybe Christiansø.

If they were in Wieck on the 7th and only got to Christiansø on the 16th, it’s not like it takes 9 days to do that.

which means they must have either waited in Harbour in Wieck, anchored off shore and waited, or at least were planting the southern charge.

Presumably if you don’t want attention you’d be anchored offshore, less chance that a nosey berth neighbour would strike up a conversation, see too much, have any reason to remember you by, or worse the harbourmaster coming down to say hello and doing the same.

[subtle finch]

I see your point of not attracting attention but is it a problem to talk to your neighbour or someone else or is it even more suspicious to say nothing and just be seen at restocking you boat with numerous things and a propably strange crew with 5 man an 1 woman? I'm really don't know whats the best approach to such a situation....

[sand delta]

Unfortunately I’ve never bombed a gas pipeline from a yacht 😛

But absolutely a good point.

On Christiansø, as quaint and tiny as the island is, it’s a substantial tourist attraction and as you can see from social media and even Google, very camera happy.

Especially in view of the administrators Facebook post asking for pictures of the boat.

[subtle finch]

I'm still searching for estimates regarding the food weight or what Bavaria thougth of with 75kg cargo per person, how long the 75kg are planned to last...

[sand delta]

Doing the trick of multiplying the length by the breadth (in feet) and dividing by 15 gives you a capacity of 13.

Which is the USCGs guidance when your boat doesn’t have a stated capacity

Not too different from the 12.

[subtle finch]

My calculations with 75kg per person, how long will 75kg last? And in this situation, are 75kg per person + 900kg any other cargo enough + the water tanks?

I really don't think it is necessary to dig deeper and do all the math, escpacially considering the 2 possible stops for refuelling food and water.

[sand delta]

So you need 3 litres a day and about 1-2 kg of food a day.

Let’s say 7kg, given increased nutrition and hydration needed to do this sorta stuff.

10 days?

[subtle finch]

The question is what is Bavaria thinking about with their payload capacity?

[sand delta]

In view of what kind of life raft you could fit?

[subtle finch]

If they assume that a trip for example lasts a week and the 75kg payload per person enough, all calculations in this direction would be unnecessary. You understand my point?

[sand delta]

Yes

[subtle finch]

Far more interesting is the question how 6 people went to the harbour and left, normally "Lieferwagen" don't come with 6 seats and the report just said "the explosives were transported in a white van".

[sand delta]

For what it’s worth, it’s a pretty good standard size for a ocean travel type yacht, 1800kg would be a fair amount of capacity if you consider crossing the Atlantic or something.

[sand delta]

Indeed, and someone to drive the van away, 7th conspirator.

[subtle finch]

My take is that it is possible to fit all the equipment needed and theres not an extremly huge obvious imposibility with the numbers.

[subtle finch]

Not necessary a 7th conspirator, Mola website says theres a parking lot (14€ per day https://www.mola-yachtcharter-ostsee.de/Yachtcharter-Ostsee/Yachthafenresidenz-Rostock-Warnemuende.html) so it's not supsicious in any way to just park there.

[sand delta]

Pretty cheap

[subtle finch]

Pretty expensive (in my opinion) for Germany but the point is it isn't suspicous.

Is there is any info if they sailed back to Rostock afterwards?

[sand delta]

The terms and conditions of the charter agreement require you bring it back to where you picked it up.

[subtle finch]

I still think it is almost impossible to go on a normal sailing trip with 6 people with normal equipment + explosives and diving equipment and just use one "Lieferwagen".

[subtle finch]

I'm referring to this and theres no explicit proof this happened only the statement "the yacht was not cleaned" but im still considering this was the case...

[deft stone]

Im sorry for butting in on this; If we go with the small ukrainian group story, it could be they picked up more in Wieck. Its not mentioned in any story I've seen, but its possible, and somewhat less conspicious than loading dozens of bags of explosive in Rostock.

[deft stone]

On the other hand, if they met up wit Minerva Julie, more equipment could've been handed down to them from there. The Lieferwagen in Wieck might theoretically be possible to check, the tanker not so much

[subtle finch]

Even if so, 6 people with normal sailing equipment is still a lot of stuff.
In my opinion there have to be more transport vehicles.

[sand delta]

https://www.tagesschau.de/investigativ/nord-stream-explosion-101.html

Just for background, this is where the cleaning part comes from:

According to the research, the investigators subsequently managed to locate the boat again the following day in Wiek on Rügen and later on the Danish island of Christiansø northeast of Bornholm. The yacht was then returned to the owner in an uncleaned condition. According to research, investigators found traces of explosives on the table in the cabin.

[sand delta]

The reporting does have this:

According to the investigation, the commando set sail from Rostock on September 6, 2022. The equipment for the secret operation was previously transported to the port in a delivery truck, it is said

[deft stone]

True. Thats been my thoughts too.

[sand delta]

I agree it would some sense to make use of a quieter port to load all the stuff, but the reporting suggests that a van brought the explosives to Rostock previous to them leaving Rostock, so surely loaded in Rostock?

[subtle finch]

I disagree

Rostock is the best location to load everything:

• You chartered a yacht and everyone knows you have to load a lot of stuff, who cares if this is some bags more than "usually"? (and what does "usually" even mean?)
• You arrive in a foreign port with a rented yacht and load heaps of bags?

[sand delta]

Hmm?

Actually ignore me, I’m getting tired and confusing myself

[subtle finch]

Just put everything in sailing bags ("Segeltaschen") and nobody gives a f*** because everything does it this way.

[deft stone]

fair

[sand delta]

Yea,

You see a good example of this in the video ironically.

[harsh rock]

I agree that Rostock would be the best location to load.
Either through gaining permission to get a van in through the bollards to the pier next to the boat ramp in the west of the marina and loading from there.
Or a better option would be to head out of the marina and up river to load from a pier upstream.... which would mean it might pop up on the cam.

[subtle finch]

You could literally transport corpses and nobody would notice, these sailing bags can be big and also with wheels there are just two problems:

1. You need to load them below deck so you need to be able to carry them somehow onto and into the boat.
2. Extreme quantities of sailing bags that is really unrealistic beacause it's obviously to much.

[subtle finch]

Theres no need to park the car close to the port, if the bags have wheels theres no problem at all, if they don't have wheels consider the fact that you still need to carry them under deck. A car parked directly next to the boat is for lazy people but not necessary.

[sand delta]

In terms of parking Hohe Dune is pretty ideal, if the boat was at a Mola berth (almost certainly) and they parked in the Car park, it’s 300m walk at most.

[subtle finch]

If youre not able to load the stuff onto the boat and under the deck a car directly next to the boat doesn't help either.

[deft stone]

thats a good point though. Load some of the bags in the harbor and more somewhere out of the way - that way its not as problematic for anyone

[sand delta]

If they aren’t liftable, you’re not going to be able to get it into the boat anyways, as you say

[harsh rock]

Multiple bags being lugged up a pier at a marina that is at odds with the usual loadout for a charter cruise can arouse suspicion so you should probably take that into account.

[subtle finch]

I really don't think so.

[sand delta]

Between 6 people, you’d be able to bring in a considerable weight in only a small number of trips

[harsh rock]

That's cool.... you should probably consider it though. Nothing is off the table.

[subtle finch]

Theres a lot of traffic at this place and a lot of yachts to charter, it would really suprise me if it is suspicious in any way if you have some more bags and even if so, as long as I get paid, wheres the problem? There are a lot of factors that need to add up that this goes wrong and remember, why would you drive to Germany in the first place? And why is a company involved?

[sand delta]

It would only really make sense if the Polish company is a travel agent, or just some other kind of middleman.

Otherwise it’s just weird.

[subtle finch]

A compandy doesn't add any privacy, it's even possible to do cash only with Mola...

So you need to give them proof of identity and your sailing license anyway but adding a company makes no sense at all.

[sand delta]

Worth mentioning here that they provided fake passports.

Which weren’t Ukrainian, Russian or German.

[harsh rock]

There are constantly people tinkering on boats at marinas and checking comings and goings.
Watching people load gear onto boats and commenting on it amongst themselves is considered a competitive sport in sailing.

[sand delta]

As Mola’s website notes

There is theoretically the option to get groceries dropped directly to your boat.

https://www.mola-yachtcharter-ostsee.de/Service-Yachtcharter.html

[subtle finch]

So I am definately going to do this in Rostock and not in Wieck or somewhere else, especially thinking about the harbour master knowing whats going on in his harbour? I don't want to wipe anything off the table but to think it would make sense to do it differently... doing it differently makes even less sense in terms of suspicion and security (not considering hand over on sea from another boat).

[sand delta]

If you cut out hauling all the stores onboard, all you need to care about is your own personal clothes, devices, and the equipment to carry out this operation.

That is not to say that needing to do it yourself would raise any eyebrows itself, whilst you might have nosey people going like “how many bags has he brought now,” I don’t think people would remark at all, no matter how nosey they were, that you were now carrying your 5th case of drinking water onboard.

Admittedly thinking out loud

[subtle finch]

So people are renovating their boats or even living on them part time, no one gives a f***, it could be susipcious but as long as you don't do something really strange no one cares. We should all know by now that whatever they did wasn't suspicious (enough) because they managed to do all of this without anyone noticing. The boat was searched in January and if this was the only search taking place it this is some time after September... So besides all the speculations, even from myself with Rostock, the loading could have taken place anywhere.

[sand delta]

I agree.

As regarding the Polish company with two Ukrainian owners being the ones renting from Mola, there’s only two real hypotheses in my mind:

It’s just a pure middleman, a travel agent, and the nationality is just a weird quirk, thus not pointing in any direction.

Or, it was intentionally done this way, to include a Ukrainian element, whether to represent who is carrying out the act, or indeed being used by someone else to hide that they are the ones behind it, or indeed intentionally being used by Russia to blame Ukraine.

The last part is probably the most conspiratorial element, but given the near constant mention of false flags being a possibility in articles, it does raise a glaring issue.

[subtle finch]

Interestingly the false flag mention in the reports is never directly tied to the other direct stated findings but only presented as possibility pointed out by "experts in these circles".

[sand delta]

True.

[subtle finch]

So thinking about who did it and why only confuses the currently from the known facts or unknowns.

[sand delta]

I doubt we’ll be able to figure out who did it on our own, at most we’ll be able to jump ahead of what the journalists drip-drip report based on the little details we get

[subtle finch]

Considering this article https://www.ostsee-zeitung.de/panorama/experte-zur-nord-stream-sprengung-kein-hexenwerk-fuer-erfahrene-taucher-2HFIBXP4KNCPFD7VM22A4SXUAA.html and the rough calculations there should be no problem loading all the necessary equipment (wherever you do this) onto the boat. The questions that remains for me is how many cars you use for this (and where you park them) because just 1x Lieferwagen seems unlikely.

[sand delta]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=teQ832xOeP0

[sand delta]

All the above video gives us regarding the van is that it's white.

It also reports that the Polish company which rented the boat, and which has 2 Ukrainian owners, apparently received money to do it from a Western European company with a Ukrainian CEO.

[sand delta]

This courtesy of @obtuse hill

[raw nexus]

Morning.

[sand delta]

God I haven't went to sleep.

[raw nexus]

I just wanted to ask.

[sand delta]

[raw nexus]

Hüsch husch

[sand delta]

time for bed.

But yea, only realised the Western European company with a Ukrainian CEO element when I re-read it there, I must use my tiredness as an excuse 😛 Talk soon 🙂

[rustic bay]

North Americans are thinking about bedtime. If you are European this should alarm you.

[whole thunder]

Good morning as well 😉

[hoary maple]

morning all

[magic niche]

Put in a historical data request on marinetraffic.com, let's see

[junior moat]

You can get 14 days free access to marinetraffic historical playback feature

also denmark EEZ historical AIS data is completely open-source, if you're good with huge CSV files

[muted gazelle]

This whole yacht story is a ridiculous diversion. How would you load a tonne of explosives (or more - it was enough to take out 50m of pipeline), 400m of anchor chain, specialist scuba gear (capable of producing the mixture of oxygen, nitrogen and helium necessary to dive at 80-100m), a decompression chamber into a 14m yacht without even a proper platform. I've rented a Bavaria 50 in Greece and it's not possible to do this. The Swedes, Danes and Germans have sat on this story for months and then start leaking ridiculous bits of info a day? This will carry on for a week or two while they try to divert attention from the Hersh account.

[raw nexus]

You think we are conspiracy artists? Is that what this post means? Did you read the thread in here?

[junior moat]

read the interview with Achim here (put through google translate):
https://www.ostsee-zeitung.de/panorama/experte-zur-nord-stream-sprengung-kein-hexenwerk-fuer-erfahrene-taucher-2HFIBXP4KNCPFD7VM22A4SXUAA.html
if he says it's possible, it's possible probably

[magic niche]

oh that's interesting. yes i'm an it engineer, so python's no issue

[junior moat]

here you go: http://web.ais.dk/aisdata/

[magic niche]

gawd that's cool

For those starting out: The pinned posts are the current state of knowledge, I got my own public version running here: https://docs.google.com/document/d/127ofIt_FaSbqzfxUgeiaBYKH8INjzMWGsJo8_XH-13k/edit?usp=sharing

[hoary maple]

Hersh’s entire account is reliant on one anonymous source who supposedly knows everything happening in the CIA, white house and navy. None of it is verifiable, and he isn’t particularly reliable considering he also denied the use of chemical weapons in Syria.

[vocal violet]

Thanks for that, I need to update the pinned version and I will do that later today, so I will merge with your version as I got lost after the Andromeda revelation

[hoary maple]

This story was literally the first thing on his substack, and immediately following it, he went on a tour of russian state tv.

[vocal violet]

And Russia is still insisting the Hersh theory

[magic niche]

ok can do, or we join efforts and I give you edit rights? I think a google doc or something might be more suitable. something with collapsable hierarchies

[vocal violet]

Yeah, we can do that, I'll DM you later as I have a meeting in a bit

[junior moat]

@magic niche I used a bit of grep + jq on these files to filter for certain vessel, sample down the timestamps to a reasonable number, and put out a bit of JSON arrays that I could quickly copy&paste into geojson.io for a quick look on the map ... but then didn't want to go further down the rabbit hole 😉

[hushed bay]

Who is "they"?

Also, the whole point of whats happening here is that people are trying to determine via facts, reasoning and evidence whether or not the yacht claim is true. It may be at the end of the process that its proven that it cannot be true.

That contrasts with Hersch's method which is basically "One guy told me this is how it happened"

[magic niche]

exactly. the thing i find weirdest is returning the boat uncleaned. but hey, sometimes stupidity prevails, who knows. let's investigate 🤓

[pure vine]

in theory if the charges were premade they wouldnt leave much residue

but if they brought in smaller charges that were then "repackaged" aboard it would leave more residue

[hushed bay]

Yup. And the conclusion of the investigation might be "This version of the story is implausible". But until all the facts are in, everything is speculation and opinion.

[pure vine]

wait im reading into this a bit

[whole thunder]

https://youtu.be/OWKfVzGX750

In this Interview the journalists says that the traces of explosives found on the boat match the explosives used in NS attacks.
Sounds like they matched them chemically?
If they did im pretty sure they know where the explosives came from assuming it was factory made of some sort.

[pure vine]

To get to 80 meters, they need about three to four minutes.

But all this is not time-consuming. We are talking about about ten minutes, the total dive time was probably about 20 minutes.

idk about the total dive time, though, i think it was lost in translation and the 20 minutes would be the total time they spent at the bottom?

this could effectively cut down the amount of heliox tanks down to two, assuming they only breached NS1, you're adding around 100/200kgs of cargo to the boat

the boat has a capacity of around 1200kgs, 500/600 in people, another 100 or so in oxygen tanks, another 100 or so in ballast

it leaves aroudn 700kgs-ish of explosives

[whole thunder]

He also speaks about several Ukrainian citizens involved, not only the police company owners

[junior moat]

how did you find an interview with the journalist on a yt-channel with just 40 subscribers 😄

[whole thunder]

Twitter... one of the journalists shared it

Quit interesting! Speaking of military grade explosives.

Also that they sailed over night in some sort

[rocky wolf]

https://www.tryggdirekt.se/index.pl/christians_hamn

This page from 2008 says that you order Diesel in the shop in the marina

[hoary maple]

explosives are the only thing you can describe as ‘military grade’ and it means better

[whole thunder]

They saw the evidence (forged passports e.g.) and know the company in Poland already.

So will see what comes out next

[tidal knoll]

Going to tell this to an ex-Army colleague.

[magic niche]

the way he's talking, i'm not sure they themselves really saw it. also where does he say they know which company it is?

[whole thunder]

09:30

Maybe I get it wrong, a German listening to an English speaking German, you know 😉

[magic niche]

hehe, yeah... it's true he says "we saw", but it may just be a German trying to imitate CNN 😆

[sand delta]

I’ve been in contact with the administrator on Christiansø, it’s not possible to refuel on the island

[muted gazelle]

So from the back of a 14m yacht designed for holiday rentals they transported enough explosives 100m deep to blow up a 50m stretch of a pipeline made of coated steel 1 1/2 inches thick 😂 .

[pure vine]

fwiw it is "doable" but itll be difficult and miserable

[hoary maple]

I’m no explosives expert, but from what I’ve been reading in here and various other places, sure

It seems pretty implausible, but the only real way we can be certain is by checking for ourselves.

[harsh rock]

It's been mentioned above that
"The whole point of whats happening here is that people are trying to determine via facts, reasoning and evidence whether or not the yacht claim is true. It may be at the end of the process that it's proven that it cannot be true."
But welcome to the server Paul and thanks for the valuable input 👍

[sand delta]

I totally agree. Seems impossible. However: No one - to my knowledge from reading the German stories - ever claimed, that the suspected boat acted alone. Did they? Nor that it transported ALL of the explosives. Could be part of a bigger plot involving lots of other boats and ships.

[junior moat]

it's even the case that other boat charters in the area were questioned by federal police as well.. it's unclear if they were questioned to find that same boat, or maybe because suspicion of further boats that may have been involved

[pure vine]

fwiw in theory they could even bypass weight limitations by just having the boat transport divers and dive material

and rendezvous with another boat(s) in the area and use that as a staging point

[vocal violet]

So little update on the pinned post: both I and @magic niche have moved it to a Google Docs file that you can access here, feel free to DM any of us about it: https://docs.google.com/document/d/127ofIt_FaSbqzfxUgeiaBYKH8INjzMWGsJo8_XH-13k

I edited the original post to have a link to both this document and Aric's thread.

Also pinging @hushed bay to let him know of this change

[rocky wolf]

This is around Bornholm on the 14:th of September. It's a Bavaria sailing boat

Logo on the sailing mast says kubryk.pl

[pure vine]

kubryk.pl tags to a polish boat rental

IMO not our boat, the sailor looks too young

[junior moat]

would be amazing if this gang-of-6 opened an instagram for their little operation 🖼️

[pure vine]

i have a feeling the bavaria is an alibi/a cover story for something else

[vocal violet]

We've seen worse offenders of sharing covert stuff in places like VK in the past

[pure vine]

its plausible enough to hide the truth but also common enough that it wont raise suspicion

[vocal violet]

I mean, that's what we're doing here, finding out if it's true or not and if not what's the actual true, based on the resources openly available

[pine umbra]

I mean, basically everyone agrees that the Bavaria is only part of the truth, if at all afaik?

[restive kelp]

But the attack was in international waters so would it be included in this data?

[magic niche]

well my hope is just that it was in danish waters sometime and i can get the MMSI that way

[vocal violet]

No but it likely crossed the Danish EEZ and it is suspected to have stopped in Christiansø

[pure vine]

it could be one of these regularly scheduled yacht cruises

on mudryk.pl I can't find any yachts available for charter, I think that's a dead end

however, it does show that the weather was good enough to sail in - you can't hear any engines so it could be they did some part on sails to avoid refueling in christianso

[vocal violet]

That can be interesting on its own

[pine umbra]

hmm but we do not even know if the day is the correct one, right?

[obtuse hill]

This sailor could be a witness. ONE person should contact him.

[pure vine]

he's a kid, idk if he'd be much help

[pure vine]

no but we can check if the weather in the baltic was possible to sail in, if so it can solve the christianso problem

[junior moat]

there is no international-waters in the Baltic Sea .... it is entirely subdivided into respective countries' EEZs

not territorial waters, but EEZ waters

[sand delta]

Do we know where they had to return the yacht? Hohe Düne? Wieck?

[pine umbra]

according to the terms of mola at the same port where they got it (aka Hohe Düne)

[junior moat]

@restive kelp here you can see the border of the Danish territorial waters around Bornholm/Christinasø and then also the border of Danish EEZ and the other countries' EEZ (Sweden, Poland)

[pure vine]

wieck is the one that was claimed but the draft was too deep right

[pine umbra]

It is Wiek on Rügen, not Wieck/Darß (the latter was a wrong information/confusion)

[nimble gull]

Not sure this is right. I mean, when you walk through airport security and selected for a random check, they swipe your belt, laptop, phone etc, they’re looking for explosives too. I’m no expert but it may be very hard to get rid of 100%.

[junior moat]

Marc, I think we're pretty confident by the way that the Andromeda simply does not have an AIS transmitter, so fairly certain this yacht itself won't be in any AIS data unfortunately

[sand delta]

Right. So then we’re talking about 600+ km in terms of total distance of the mission with the Andromeda having a range of 480km.

[pure vine]

if they can sail it partially they can extend the range

[sand delta]

Right, but isn’t it a huge risk to bet on that rather than refuel before going back? The last thing you’d want is to get stuck

[pine umbra]

It is also still very much possible that they did another stop on the way back, right?

[sand delta]

Yeah that’s my point. You would want to be sure that you had gas to get you back/away

[pine umbra]

yes, getting lost on the way back would mean you'd have to explain a LOT of things

[sand delta]

There’s also the possibility they brought extra fuel, about a 100l would be enough. Further chipping away at storage capacity

[whole thunder]

Yeah difficult to get rid of. Even oh humans it is detectable if you shot a gun for quite some days

[raw nexus]

If you had read the thread you would know better. Some ppl play with imaginary coins, some ppl play with theories. But God loves all her children.

[raw nexus]

Kids use Instagram and discord

[pure vine]

but in the sense of being able to provide useful information

[raw nexus]

I had to translate snese lol. I mean there are maybe pictures.

[deft stone]

Its still worth a try with the kid. Either we get an answer that helps, or we don't. Even if he hasnt seen them enroute, he mightve seen them in port sometime. Its another Bavaria cruiser after all

[pine umbra]

Best chance might be some pictures, yes. I don't think, the kid remembers what they saw in a port on a sailing trip 6 months ago

[raw nexus]

Better delete the kid link, doxxing a minor against rules, real name

[deft stone]

Oh yeah. True.

[sand delta]

Without wanting to know details

How long ago was that kid on the Andromeda?

[vocal violet]

It was not the Andromeda I believe? Just a similar ship

[pure vine]

it wasn't the andromeda, it was a similar bavaria cruiser in the baltic

[sand delta]

Ah, gotcha

[vocal violet]

Go back to sleep Sara, get more rest 😅

[obtuse hill]

Not Andromeda, just a Bavaria 50 in the same time and area.

[sand delta]

Aye Aye captain.

As regarding identifying the cockpit, that weird table, I don’t think is standard.

Or well, I’m not sure.

It gives off DIY vibes to me anyways.

[rocky wolf]

Not confirmed Andromeda, 14th of September 2022 in the Bornholm-area

[raw nexus]

Did someone check webcams?

[stark palm]

Hello, decided to pop in here to see if there were any new leads.

The entire Andromeda story has enough holes to sink the yacht.

There are a few other large holes that should become public information shortly

[sand delta]

Sadly I have to be awake.

[rocky wolf]

I'm guessing that if you can't refuel at Christiansö you have to go to one of the docks in Bornholm.. so I was sifting through some instagram reels and pictures from around that date

[pine umbra]

I tried to find something in Wiek/Rügen yesterday but all of the Webcams I found were down accept for one which was a YouTube Livestream and not very helpful

[sand delta]

Like the 4 large holes in Nordstream? 😛

[pine umbra]

thats one damn cliffhanger :D

[raw nexus]

Yes, it's a swiss cheese story

[sand delta]

Beyond finding more and more pictures of the Andromeda.

From various time stamps.

[pure vine]

not surprised the andromeda story doesnt work out, the only way i can consider it being present would be either as diversion or as a tender to the boat that actually did the operation

[raw nexus]

Yes, it stopped in June. Maybe we should look at Bornholm, too

[whole thunder]

Did you watched the interview I've linked?
@sand delta

Have a great day!

[sand delta]

Ye.

[vocal violet]

Hello Oliver, happy to have you here. Check the pinned messages for a link to the summary of what we're finding here but indeed this theory is full of holes

[sand delta]

The webcam availablity in the known locations is just quite poor, either it doesn’t exist or what we have is essentially unusable.

We’ve basically done a wonderful job of collating every publicly available image of the Andromeda

[raw nexus]

Ok, I will do some Instagram digging this afternoon

[stark palm]

There are a few things I am working on that I can’t share yet.

Much like with the ID of the Andromeda, where we had to wait for SPIEGEL to confirm it due to not having a shareable “OSNT” source and not wanting to burn a good source

[sand delta]

But not much otherwise, beyond guesstimating what kinda cargo they’d need and the weights involved.

[stark palm]

I will say that at this time it does seem more likely it left Rostock on the 7th than the 6th. Hopefully I get confirmation from a source today.

[junior moat]

possibly between 1200 and 1400 ? 😉 ( is what our webcam suggests )

[sand delta]

The one webcam we have, does have a movement in Mola’s general area on the 7th, yea.

[stark palm]

That is what I am expecting to be able to prove.

The sourcing for the “6th” claim is quite weak

[junior moat]

maybe they did paperwork on the 6th, but only left on the 7th

[vocal violet]

If it is indeed on the 7th when it left, then the question is if it was indeed seen on Wiek on the 7th as well, because it would arrive on the afternoon/evening there

[junior moat]

would make sense, right ? couple hours to Wiek, stay there for the night

[raw nexus]

That changes the time frame a bit

[vocal violet]

Can it get to Wiek in a couple hours? I'm not so sure if it has the speed to cover the distance

Its engine has only a 5 knots speed, sailing it would be 6-7

There's around 100km from Rostock to Wiek in a straight line, easily 150km (or more) to sail there

[pine umbra]

https://www.instagram.com/p/CiMZSqjNVku/?igshid=YmMyMTA2M2Y=

Geotag "Hohe Düne", 07th of September but idk if anyone can make anything out of the resolution...

tobiasknolle

Lets start a new journey

Instagram

[pure vine]

https://nl.yachtworld.com/jacht/2011-bavaria-cruiser-50-8700330/

[sand delta]

Ah, standard so

[pure vine]

probably an optional or something

[obtuse hill]

Another potential witness who should be contacted. Maybe he has more photos.

[raw nexus]

He says he starts a new job. Maybe worth to ask for photos?

[pure vine]

honestly, i really cant see an 88m technical dive being conducted out of that boat

[raw nexus]

Personally I think there's another boat but we have to puzzle

[pine umbra]

the boat is most likely not the whole story but the best lead we have so far, right?

[vocal violet]

If someone is going to contact people, please organise beforehand because I don't think it would be very productive if a lot of people come to someone to ask questions, especially for such a delicate topic

And remember to protect people's privacy

[pure vine]

ergo, the minerva julie

[sand delta]

According to the German reporting, it’s the only lead we have as much as is openly reported.

[pure vine]

i think this entire story is an alibi tbh, at the most the andromeda brought the diver to the MJ but anything more than that might be a stretch

[pine umbra]

well yeah, the ultimate restriction of OSINT I guess

[obtuse hill]

Someone could try to identify all Polish companies with TWO Ukrainian owners.

[pine umbra]

well there were remains of explosives found there afaik

[stark palm]

I have a lot of local media contacts in the Rostock area. I will try to see if they have reached out to any of these people

[sand delta]

Using the little bits of information they did give, we identified the ship they were dancing around giving much information from, the evening before it the morning/afternoon it was confirmed.

But that only tells us that the German journalists didn’t do a good job of anonymising the boat they were suggesting, not that they didn’t already know the name.

[stark palm]

I can confirm that a lot of people knew the name

[sand delta]

Including me 😛

And if you’re telling us it can be rented for 3 grand, it’s 15 metres or so, it has a capacity of X and it left Rostock, you’re already narrowing it down quite a bit, they likely knew the name before any reporting happened.

[stark palm]

I had it independently confirmed by 4 seperate sources who all knew but couldn’t tell me the name.

But could nod if it was correct

This was within an hour or two of the Zeit story dropping.

[pine umbra]

so you were basically guessing the whole dictionary? :D

[stark palm]

So a lot of people knew

[stark palm]

luckily it wasnt the Zumwalt

[vocal violet]

Thankfully only had to go halfway through A, so it was quick

[sand delta]

My favorite DM was Aric about the possible names from a partial bit of it

[tired monolith]

note to self: if blowing up gas pipes choose a boat with a name last in the alphabet

[stark palm]

I wonder where he got that 👀

[sand delta]

Knowing Andro-, his suggestions were either Andromeda, Android or Androgynous

[vocal violet]

That's where you get outplayed and someone does a reverse dictionary order search 😛

[sand delta]

[tidal knoll]

Conclusion: use M or N.

[pine umbra]

"M" as in Minerva Julie?

wait

[vocal violet]

Or a letter that's not in the English alphabet (like Ñ or Ç)

[rocky wolf]

Also.. Send 6 people with fake passports to rent a sailingboat and make sure they leave residue on the table

[vocal violet]

And a business card

[tidal knoll]

A 'calling card' is an expression that does not necessarily mean a little piece of cardboard.

[pine umbra]

I cannot quite wrap my head around the fact that they didn't clean up well honestly. Like, isn't that the thing you are most careful about when blowing up critical infrastructure?

[sand delta]

And make the Ukrainian connection hilariously longwinded, if the police know it was rented by a Polish company with two Ukrainian owners with money supplied by a a Western European company with a Ukrainian CEO

[raw nexus]

Now it makes sense. Thanks for the clarification

[sand delta]

At that point, why are you not just using Ukrainian passports, even if they have a fake name.

[pine umbra]

Wait I thought it was neither German nor Russian or Ukrainian?

[sand delta]

Yes, my point exactly.

[pine umbra]

ahhh my brain did not understand the sentence

[tired monolith]

depends a bit on what angle you are coming at the story from - like if its intended to leave trails pointing back to UA for example it would make sense to leave something you knew people eventually would catch onto and perhaps be able to throw them off in the wrong direction of what actually happened

[pine umbra]

yeah but - that sounds like a blockbuster movie with a blatantly easy to read plot so I do not like to believe it I guess

[sand delta]

The other issue is that those responsible are essentially immune from prosecution at this point. It would be politically impossible to prosecute people for this, and as long as they were able to get back to Ukraine let’s say, nothings being done to them, dunno why you’d fear prosecution.

[rocky wolf]

Passports which say "Professionally made" on the cover with big lettering

military grade passports

[sand delta]

Presumably all Mola has is the scans of their passports?

[junior moat]

coming back to this question... I think the answer is no. If it left on the 7th after 1200 .. it would arrive only in the middle of the night at Wiek ... I checked other sailing yachts doing this trip with 5-7kn .. and it took 10h+

[vocal violet]

There must be an invoice too

[rocky wolf]

if I know my Germans right, they photo copied them at best

[vocal violet]

If they did use a company, then there's also a VAT number

[sand delta]

Yes, I mean for the investigators to use to determine if they were counterfeit.

They don’t still have the passport, is what I mean to say.

[vocal violet]

A photocopy if they keep it, but I doubt that's something that we can get access to unless it's published somewhere

[sand delta]

Mola told that reporter that they’d be instructed by police to not speak to media

[tired monolith]

well, if you been following Christos different stories about RU agents throughout Europe theres a lot of oddities you think would be taken from movies imo. So even if its not the most likely option perhaps, it would be dumb to not having it in the pile of things to consider

[rocky wolf]

Probably not.. and probably not German passports.. in order to minimize the likelihood they get checked out by a nosy boat rent employee

[sand delta]

It’s been mentioned that they weren’t Ukrainian, Russian or German, passports that is.

[raw nexus]

September is summer season, how long before that had to rent. How long does it take to get passports and a crew, what divers does it need,military? So how long before it was planned? We need a sidenote channel

[sand delta]

i honestly think this quite a compelling reason as to why it could be a diversion. those who are competent enough to acquire exceptional amounts of explosives, smuggle it onto a boat, organize fake identities for 5+ people, not to mention actually executing the operation itself, leave your identity relatively obfuscated, among lots of other things, are not going to leave a business card and leave traces of explosives on the said boat which you used to blow up the pipeline. it doesn't make sense. either this person knows he cannot be prosecuted and left his identity as a taunt, or is intentionally trying to divert investigators

[rocky wolf]

Keep in mind, if they are professionals they might have rented the boat before the operation to practice certain aspects of the op.

[pine umbra]

to be honest, we know that the Passports were faked so probably to solve the puzzle it is not tooo relevant, which country the fake passports were supposed to be from? Or do I miss something?

[sand delta]

It’s been left unidentified, just not German, Russian or Ukrainian.

[pure vine]

At this point it's so messy and chaotic that it points fingers to an intelligence service that's not very intelligent and always leaves leftovers

[sand delta]

Assuming they were Ukrainian, or indeed Russian, to avoid attracting attention, they’d probably be using an Eastern European passport, just in view of what they likely look and sound like.

[raw nexus]

Yes, and they have to know the port.

[sand delta]

But that’s just a guess.

[true barn]

I'm currently filtering data from aisdk for september 22. data looks like this: ```

Timestamp,Type of mobile,MMSI,Latitude,Longitude,Navigational status,ROT,SOG,COG,Heading,IMO,Callsign,Name,Ship type,Cargo type,Width,Length,Type of position fixing device,Draught,Destination,ETA,Data source type,A,B,C,D

01/09/2022 23:59:58,Class A,215270000,55.299903,14.420613,Under way using engine,0.0,13.6,220.5,221,9381512,9HA5032,RED OPAL,Tanker,No additional information,31,175,GPS,8.0,DK FRC,02/09/2022 19:00:00,AIS,143,32,25,6

[pure vine]

We know they're Ukrainian because they raised an Azov Battalion flag under their Third Reich flag and just above their sims 3 cds

[true barn]

anything I should search for, besides "andromeda"?

[pine umbra]

hmm the problem is that the andromeda had no ais as far as I know

or are you looking for different ship?

[raw nexus]

We have to go back in time with our knowledge. How was the political situation, what were the rumors, where there any articles etc.

[sand delta]

And of course, the business card has to look like this. /s

[pure vine]

Wait there's no way

[sand delta]

(This isn’t it, this is a joke from an incident that happened in 2014)

[pine umbra]

I mean, there are many theories to who could have an interest in blowing the thing up but they are pretty hypothetical I believ?

[pure vine]

Oh okay

[sand delta]

Just pointing out that the use of the word business card is weird.

[rocky wolf]

Actually did some digging into that e-mailaddress.. very interesting indeed. (I know the card was a joke)

[pure vine]

But the real business cards were stapled to the Stepan Bandera fan club newsletter

[raw nexus]

Jep. That's how it works. And now we are more ppl here 😊

[true barn]

yep, that's why I'm asking. Not sure if it would help to populate a PostGIS database and make it public or if not worth the effort because data is useless

[sand delta]

Could you identify any ships in the areas in question?

[sand delta]

two of them had UKR passports

according to Zeit.DE

[rocky wolf]

Have you considered that the boat might have been named Andromeda at one point in time but since changed it's name.. leaving the Andromeda writing on the boat

[pine umbra]

wait what?

[sand delta]

yes

[sand delta]

https://www.zeit.de/politik/deutschland/2023-03/nord-stream-sprengungen-konstantin-von-notz-bundestag

right at the bottom

[pine umbra]

Thats news to me I thought they were unnokwn

[rocky wolf]

"Zwei der Personen hätten ukrainische Pässe"

[sand delta]

The Kontraste video

From last night said that the passports were neither German, Ukrainian or Russian.

Interesting turn.

[pine umbra]

yes and ZEIT has no source for their claim (they refer to another article but no Ukrainian passports are mentioned there)

[sand delta]

https://www.youtube.com/live/teQ832xOeP0

[pine umbra]

maybe they mixed it up with the two ukrainian owners of the polish company?

[whole thunder]

Interesting point here though

https://twitter.com/FlorianFlade/status/1634149519712571392?t=nqQZggV2YlmyQVcwmhoV-g&s=19

Florian Flade (@FlorianFlade)

…nach bisherigen Erkenntnissen der #BKA-Ermittler wurde kein TNT verwendet, sondern ein Sprengstoff, der an den Röhren eine Kraft (TNT-Äquivalent) von rund 500kg TNT entwickelt hat. Die eingesetzte Gesamtmenge soll daher um einiges geringer gewesen sein als nun gemutmaßt wird.

Twitter · Mar 10, 2023, 11:09 AM

[sand delta]

Yes, that’s possible. There’s been a lot of small weird mistakes in the reporting this far. Could be true either way of course.

[whole thunder]

It says, the explosive had an equivalent power to 500kg tnt. The weight of the explosives itself is probably much lower

Which makes total sense and worth keeping in mind

[junior moat]

yeah we had a bit of discussion about this .. maximum half of that like 250kg .. prob more like 300kg

[raw nexus]

That changes all again

[sand delta]

Anyone here know, how to get in touch with Oliver Alexander? Email? etc.

[junior moat]

he was just here 😉

[whole thunder]

Well done community:

https://twitter.com/EliotHiggins/status/1634153433077776384?t=P5E3t7SNcxDSwIJ3jhn49Q&s=19

Eliot Higgins (@EliotHiggins)

The Nord Stream Pipeline community on the Bellingcat Discord server (under regions-discussion) has been very active the last couple of days, digging out everything they can find. You can join our Discord and follow their discussion at the link below:
https://t.co/bC82KTZ10B

Twitter · Mar 10, 2023, 11:25 AM

[nimble gull]

Really curious about this detail though. Any ideas?

[sand delta]

I think it refers to it being done with a particularly unique MO that could be traceable.

[nimble gull]

At least one, not necessarily all

[sand delta]

For example, the explosives had to be got from somewhere, that’s another paper trail.

The involvement of all these companies, that’s another paper trail.

Surely Mola would have noticed an actual physical business card on the yacht when it was returned.

[junior moat]

@true barn search for the MMSIs from this doc ... https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1hNdbDh9KOpyWiqOcFqJ36Rsn3Acb0U68_K36saglOC8/edit#gid=0
but don't get your hopes too high 😬

[rocky wolf]

The white Van (confirmed?), a rented van? German plates? Registered to whom? Where did it go once they left?

[vocal violet]

The van is just mentioned in media

[sand delta]

And that it was white.

Nothing else is revealed.

[vocal violet]

Which, you may be shocked, but there's a few white vans out there

[nimble gull]

More likely an autonomous network of some sort imo. Doesn’t have to be officially intelligence to be related.

[raw nexus]

Not published.

[junior moat]

since there seems to have been quite a few ppl who knew the name of the boat ... maybe also quite a few ppl can give a nod if we guess the license plate correctly... so better start guessing 😏

[raw nexus]

Hehe

[sand delta]

As Oliver did mention, whilst he can’t reveal it without a releasable source, there’s apparently a lot of additional information that pours a lot of water on the Andromeda.

[rocky wolf]

Looking through webcam images for an indication of a white van before the 6th/7th (given that they must have been there before).

This is on the 5th, 12:01

[sand delta]

There ain’t no way.

[little zinc]

the detail/speculation of the "calling card" afaik refers to the person(s) who ordered/bankrolled the whole op, not the six people executing it.

That is presumably not the intent of the influential figure suspected to have bankrolled such a sophisticated operation from his own pocket — involving a yacht, elite divers, forged passports and the procurement of shaped explosive charges only available to the gas and oil industry with a specific licence and at great cost.

His name will surely appear eventually, particularly given that he appears to have left a peculiar calling card. Ukraine’s relationship with its allies will fare better if the individual comes clean.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/23538776-bd4d-11ed-b386-2854db7a4e6a?shareToken=c89df312a4e0f03f1ab7e075f6a891a7

[vocal violet]

I mean, there's lots of white vans out there, so the odds are 0.0000 something, but that's greater than no white van

[sand delta]

Indeed.

As a rough identification

[vocal violet]

But the 5th seems early, it left Rostock on the 7th

[sand delta]

That seems to be a Berlingo Van.

[rocky wolf]

There is also some kind of golf cart looking vehicle parked there at 14:01 (white van has left by then). Used to drive the luggage to the boat?

[true barn]

not a single match

[sand delta]

That’s out of the way for Berth they’d be going on.

[pine umbra]

I mean they could have rented it from the 5th already, no?

[raw nexus]

Have to check the building. Maybe the backdoor of a restaurant

[tidal knoll]

Sadly, no.

[nimble gull]

Such a weird wording. Or just journos being coy…

[pure vine]

why would you carry the card of the guy who hired you

its such an odd behavior

[little zinc]

i dont think they talk about a physical card but something else.

[sand delta]

For specific context in regard to the van/golf cart being there, it's a bit out of the way for where they'd be going.

The webcam is in a pretty god awful position to see anything helpful.

[junior moat]

yeah could be some British expression for "leaving behind obvious clues that point back to you"

[sand delta]

The Hohe Duene yachthafenresidenz webcam has better angles

Specifically this one, but this isn't being archived, just the straight on one.

Oh jeez