#Probabilities

1 messages · Page 1 of 1 (latest)

frail gyro
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I think you missed how probabilities work.
In the real world, you can expect a 50% chance on your next 50k tries. But after 49,999 the chance on your 50,000th try is still 0.001% (math POV : you already fell down the unlucky path and you and some others now have a 100% chance of missing the past 49,999 tries while half the players now have a 0% chance. average is still 50%)

What you are asking the devs is to stop using real probabilities ([EDIT] and using an anti-bad-streak? unsure what the correct word is but a reddit r/gamedev comment summarize it as "players think random means streaks never happen" which kinda explains our issue on TW. Someone calls it "pity mechanic" but no idea if that's standard)

[EDIT] I think you are thinking about the "loot bag"(?) model, where a player get a loot from a group of possibilities and said group doesn't reset until emptied, while lootrate doesn't store state (and probabilities depend on context)
Subnautica uses this mechanic sometimes, example : there is a gold among 8 drops of a cluster. You'll get it faster or slower, but after 8 drops the bag is empty/reset and you have 100% of having that gold. But as a corrollary you'll never get 2 golds if you drop less than 8 (unless you didn't start at 0...)

dreamy plank
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"request to TW to use real probabilities"

"stop using drop rates, start using probabilities"

I am 100% clear that in the real world history does not affect the probability of winning on the next pull

But I am 100% certain that in TW the probability changes based on some logic (which may involve time)

All that is irrelevant t because TW won't read our DMs nor will they change

frail gyro
#

Yeah but that's already something that should be fixed by public drop rates. The issue is that (outside China) providing the drop rates is not a requirement outside gambling (which this game pretends to not be) and probabilities are very hard to prove (pedantically, we can only prove the probability that the independant events aren't independant)

And yeah, devs won't even know it exists. (If we want to troll, the dev team doesn't use English much so "noticed by devs faster" at face value is an empty promise)

[EDIT] I was confused because you talk about REAL rigged slot machines at some points. Casino are regulated and can't do that, so it's very unclear what the request was for.