#Probability

108 messages · Page 1 of 1 (latest)

trim prairie
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i have 1000 dollars, there are 28 things. 10 things are worth 50 dollars, each try cost 36 dollar. 18 things are worth 5 dollars. i go for 27 trys. what are the odds of winning? one question before, is it 0.35% chance to win??

spark ferryBOT
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severe steppe
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whats "winning"?

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net positive?

trim prairie
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yes(?)

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i dont understand

severe steppe
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ok

severe steppe
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anyways, do you know binomial theorem

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i think using that is a simple enough solution

trim prairie
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i dont know binomial theorem

severe steppe
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unlucky

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jhmm i cant think of a better way to do this then

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what context did you get this problem and how do they want you to solve it

trim prairie
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im playing a video game

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and im a tryhard

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just that im bad at math and stuff

severe steppe
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so this isnt for a class or anything then

trim prairie
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not yet

severe steppe
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okay well i iwll provide to you

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i like this binomial distribution calculator

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i kinda wanna let you take something away from this so

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the first thing to figure out here is that, you either get 50 or 5 dollars here right

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so, how many wins do you need to guarantee you get a positive net income?

trim prairie
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i need to win atleast 19 times?

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i have no clue

severe steppe
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yes, you indeed need to win at lesat 19 times

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but note that if you won 20, 21, 22, etc. youd still have a net profit right

trim prairie
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yes

severe steppe
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okay, so we can change this problem up a bit

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lets pull up the binomial calculator

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ill tell you what each category means, and your task is to find the final answer!

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so n is your total number of trials

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x is the number of trials you want successful

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and p is the probabiltiy of a successful trial

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note that we can calculate

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the odds we have trials successful greater than or equal to x

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and more

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so, can you figure out how to solve this?

trim prairie
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no.

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i dont the probability of a successfull trial (p)

severe steppe
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and a fail is when you get 5 dollars

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because we know you need to get the 50 dollars at least 19 times

trim prairie
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i dont really know anything about math

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if u telling me what to do i can google for a calculator

severe steppe
trim prairie
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Error: Probability of success p must be between 0 and 1

severe steppe
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so, what are the odds you get the 50 dollar pull?

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thats your p

trim prairie
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i dont know what the odds are to get a 50 dollar pull

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maybe 58%?27:19 but i can only put 1 or 0 in p

severe steppe
trim prairie
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are my odds 58.70% 27/19 or 41.30% 19/27 to win 50 dollars?

severe steppe
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itll be more accurate that way

trim prairie
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so???

severe steppe
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neither

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probabiltiy is

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desired outcomes / total outcomes

trim prairie
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how high is the chance that i have more than 1000 dollars after 27 trys?

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i dont know how to calculaze odds im using a online calculator i dont even understand

severe steppe
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can you figure this out

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once you have that

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youre good

trim prairie
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i need to win atleast19 times out of 27??

severe steppe
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yea you do

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but you need the odds

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of a single win

trim prairie
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i dont even know why 19 times????

severe steppe
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i thought you got that beofre

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hmm

trim prairie
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someone said it to me i dont understand

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for a second i thought i had it

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how can i calculate the 19?

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what is it called

severe steppe
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anyway s,the odds of "winning" is 10/28 or 5/14

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that is the odds of getting 50 dollars

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on playing once

trim prairie
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to be sure. i have 1000 dollars, there are 9 things. 5 things are worth 100 dollars, each try cost 50 dollar. 4 things are worth 5 dollars. i go for 27 trys. the probability is 5/9 of winning/losing each try?

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and how can i calculate it with 27 trys

severe steppe
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each try costs 50 dollars now?

trim prairie
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yes

severe steppe
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but yea the odds of winning, or at least getting the 50 dollar prize, would be 5/9, yes

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this one is super easy because youre forced to only get 50 dollar wins

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or else youd insatntly sink into debt

trim prairie
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wait

severe steppe
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so the answer is just

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,w (5/9)^27

long hollowBOT
severe steppe
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wow what likely odds

trim prairie
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try cost is 50, winning is 100 for 5 things

severe steppe
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ah ok

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so then you just wanna see how many wins you can get and then lose the rest and still have a positive net worth

trim prairie
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ok wait.

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There are 9 items I can get. 5 of them are worth 51,000 silver (with a random value between plus and minus from 1 to 2000 silver, so item 1 I sell for 51,324 silver, item 2 for 50,584 silver, etc.). The other 4 items are worth 3000 silver (with a random value between plus and minus from 1 to 200 silver) each attempt costs me 50 gumballs. 1 gumball costs me 440 silver times 50 = 22,000 silver per attempt. I try 27 times. My question is 1) What is the chance that I will make a profit after 27 attempts? And how do you calculate that?
2) And what is my profit/loss after the 27 attempts?

severe steppe
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wow, gambling, smhsmh

trim prairie
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yes

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but there are 5/9 that i win

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i cant lose? / its a market gap