thick marlin
So, how would u understand this? Ofc next surgery still has a 50% rate, but having 21 succeeds in a row is pretty unlikely.
So the probability for the next patient to survive is 50% or 0.5^21?
Id say 0.5, so the meme is indeed incorrect, but not sure
void minnowBOT
So, how would u understand this? Ofc next surgery still has a 50% rate, but havi...
+close
indigo edge
The probability shouldn't depend on what happened before. So, still 1/2.
thick marlin
Idk if the meme means that a mormal ppl will trust the doctor cuz 20 ppl survived in a row and the dark side is cuz it is still 50%, or if the author meant that the dark side is cuz having 21 in a row is almost 0
indigo edge
I believe there's a fallacy associated with it. Don't remember what it's called, though.
indigo edge
Idk if the meme means that a mormal ppl will trust the doctor cuz 20 ppl survive...
The point is some people think that the large number of successes somehow raises the probability of success, but it doesn't.
If I roll a six 20 times on a dice, that just means I got lucky, not that the probability of getting a 6 isn't 1/6.
feral pulsar
If I roll a six 20 times on a dice, that just means I got lucky, not that the pr...
Another even darker side, though significantly harder to prove, is that the probability of encountering a failure at a finite time is 1
left wedge
this bias of "it happened before these many times so it's even rarer" is what doesn't let us keep A in the exam 4 times
zinc orbit
The point is some people think that the large number of successes somehow raises...
It kinda does in this context because it's not a random event, it's an application of a skill. The surgery having a 50% survival rate overall could just be due to general relative incompetence.
indigo edge
It kinda does in this context because it's not a random event, it's an applicati...
Hm... But it does say it about this surgery specifically. Maybe it's just a hard surgery.
zinc orbit
If I roll a six 20 times on a dice, that just means I got lucky, not that the pr...
Or it means the die is loaded, in which case it exactly means that the probability of getting a 6 isn't 1/6.
indigo edge
Or it means the die is loaded, in which case it exactly means that the probabili...
Well, of course.
Still, a sample size of 20 is too small to make any meaningful assumptions.
zinc orbit
I mean, what's the proportion of fair D6es to loaded ones?
indigo edge
I don't think there's a fixed amount.
Hm... Are loaded dice manufactured in large amounts? Or are they usually made to order?
zinc orbit
Hm... But it does say it about this surgery specifically. Maybe it's just a hard...
Or a rare one.
zinc orbit
Hm... Are loaded dice manufactured in large amounts? Or are they usually made to...
A 3-set of loaded D6es from Amazon is the first result for "loaded six sided dice" on Google.
indigo edge
A 3-set of loaded D6es from Amazon is the first result for "loaded six sided dic...
Ah, really? Didn't know they were very popular. What law do they have?
zinc orbit
Obviously they're significantly rarer than fair dice, but if they're any more common than one in 3 quadrillion, 20 sixes in a row is significant evidence.
indigo edge
Hm, yeah, fair, I guess.
Though, if those 20 sixes in a row were in an experiment with, say, 10000 throws, then that's less significant.
zinc orbit
I mean, depending on the other 9980 throws.
indigo edge
Of course.
zinc orbit
I mean, 20 sixes in a row is still significant evidence, it's just that the other 9980 throws, given they're sufficiently random, are even stronger anti-evidence.