#How do I do the highlighted part of this question?

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bright comet
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distant haven
# bright comet

Use the binomial distribution.
Also, considering that the number of successes for this event is a lot larger than the number of failures, it will be quicker to go from the opposite event.

bright comet
distant haven
# bright comet how do i use the binomial distribution

Suppose we have n events, each having probability of success p.
Then the number of successes X follows a binomial distribution: X ~ Bin(n, p).
The PMF of X then is p(k) = C(n, k)p^k (1 - p)^(n - k), where C(n, k) = n!/(k! (n - k)!) is the binomial coefficient (number of combinations).

bright comet
outer depotBOT
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distant haven
distant haven
bright comet
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ah

bright comet
distant haven
bright comet
distant haven
outer depotBOT
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@bright comet has given 1 rep to @distant haven