This is a trend I've noticed in my game, and I wonder if anyone else has noticed it or can prove/disprove it. I suspect that the spawn rates of some fish (the rarer ones) are influenced by where PRECISELY you stand in a given area. Not the body of water itself, but where specifically at that body of water.
For example, when I was trying to catch a swordfish in winter, I always went and stood beside where Connor fishes off the docks just to the right of Fishensips, left of the life preserver ring. I tried for 4 - 5 days straight doing nothing but fishing and could not even get one to hook on my line. However, when I moved and stood beside where Zarah fishes (the round dock area right beside her boat), I immediately caught two of them in a row, and 1 or 2 more that day. Both of these locations are marked as the docks, and fish who are meant to spawn at the docks do spawn in both of those precise locations.
I had a similar problem with sturgeons. Fishing off the bridge just to the right of my farm, I could not catch one when I tried for several (rainy) evenings/nights in summer. I knew I was in the right location because I was catching River (Farm) fish. I grew frustrated looking at the same surroundings, so I moved down past the bridge near some rocks and fished in the river there. I immediately hooked a sturgeon on the line and caught four more that night from that spot.
And again, another issue with great white sharks. I decided I wouldn't do anything else in summer until I fished one up as I was wanted to get it in the museum ASAP. I fished at the same location I did for the swordfish (to the right of Fishensips, to the left of the life preserver) for 4 mornings/afternoons and couldn't hook one. But I saw a video of someone catching one while standing on Zarah's boat and I caught one there after 2 tries (& caught 3 more before 4pm).
It seems unlikely that I've experienced this trend so many times if it's just a coincidence. Anyone have similar stories?