Why doesn't Neuro change her portfolio more often?

[ashen salmon]

Vedal mentioned at the start that if Neuro did too operations, then he'd get his account banned.

Is that referring to Twitch or whatever his broker account thingy is? GPT tells me that daytrading is allowed on Twitch. If it's the case that you need a higher tier brokerage account to perform more operations and daytrade, then I'd ask I'll meekly ask you to upgrade it (ofc you alone can determine if it's profitable etc.)

As a viewer, I'd prefer it if Neuro was doing more trades rather than sitting on a portfolio for a long time. The current setup does has the entertainment element of whether the portfolio has gone up or down. However, when trading more often you make more decisions, and each decision brings regret or exhiliration, which is more entertaining.

I'm not expecting that you let Neuro autonomously daytrade all stream - merely that you have a 10min segment each day where Neuro reevaluates her portfolio under your supervision.
(Yes I know I've brought this up quite late but I was procrastinating)
(tbh i don't know how trading works, so feel free to tell me if say the broker fees will be too much or if the stocks don't move enough on a daily basis to make trading daily interest)

Edit (after talking to Ashes): If 10k is too much to risk on trading, then maybe earmark 2k of it for trading and only trade with that.

Also segment suggestion: Neuro and Evil have a business meeting about their portfolio

[patent seal]

I thought the idea that she can't do too much damage to turtle's wallet. Frequent trading is a quick ticket to losing a lot of money. I'd rather keep Vedal's wallet safe and find content elsewhere.

A simple way for stock trading on can imagine is, time in the market = expected investor risk and return (generally positive in the long run), each trade = duel against wall street quants about who's right about the current price (Plus fees, generally a losing game for casuals outside of pure luck).

10k is not chump change for Vedal , and he really doesn't make that much money for such a big streamer because, well he's not actually very corpa, and the twins are quite expensive to just run. (didn't he loan that money cause he didn't have it before the subathon?) He probably not going to lose it all, but losing a couple thousands on this is very easy, especially if Neuro commits to some very volatile stock.

This subathon has been a nice cash injection for him, but there're better ways to spend those money, if the intention is extra content. (paying a developer for another game's plugin for example) He has ambitious plans for the channel, and he deserves better pays for his achievements too, so just keeping it is nice too.

[ashen salmon]

10k is not chump change for Vedal
Oh tbh i thought it was, or at least Vedal was willing/fine with losing it all
didn't he loan that money cause he didn't have it before the subathon?
I took it as showmanship or a way to create tension

Hmm alright then, that was convincing.
How about instead having 8k going into an investment portfolio and 2k becomes play money?
It could capture some of the fun whilst mitigating the risk. It would be funny if an LLM managed to outperform the market , or see just how terribly it goes.
If the 2k is depleted, then the trading side ends and we only do investment.
You could probably earmark the money or stocks so Neuro and Evil can only sell stocks that are earmarked as 'for trading'

In fact, you could then compare the performance of both sides (but I suppose that's scope creep)

[patent seal]

I'd like it to be the case, but the hints I'm picking up through out many vods is that it's not really the case. I'd be really happy to be wrong though.
2k could probably work, see them blowing it on options wallstreetbets style is probably funny. But they'd probably need a bit of training before that, because on the first day I don't think they really understood what "options do. I don't think they fully understand the conditions of the options yet.

LLM is not being used for trading, because specialized neural network is just better. But some form is neural network is being used for trading.

The thing is, those neural networks are being updated very constantly, the "edge" may only exists for a few days before it's completely gone.

They are being fed thousands, of not millions of factors, trained, immediately used for a few days then outdated.

[ashen salmon]

yeah i'm not expecting vedal to let them play with options unsupervised

Hmm if the twins turn out to be trash at trading and don't miraculously outperform the market, I'll also be satisfied. I just want to see them make decisions and plans.

future idea: neuro and evil compete to see who can get better performance on their portfolios

[patent seal]

Outperforming the market is really really difficult. Because every trade is a battle. You really gotta ask yourself, "What makes me better than the other side of the trades". Remember the other side are Trading Algorithms with super low latency and access to better price than you do, AIs trained on thousands and millions of factors, including weather around the global, Auto trading bots monitoring company publications and trades in milliseconds, wallstreet quants and analycts digging a companies details for weeks. And the worst of all, inside traders.

[ashen salmon]

yea it's like a endlessly running mmorpg where everyone else is also levelling up and you need to keep up with that powercreep
and it's not enough to be right, you need to be more right than everyone else (yea i just paraphrased what you said)

[patent seal]

Yeah, exactly.

Not everyone can be winners. Outside of expected returns for an investor (aka the market), every profit is made off someone else loss. When the portfolio grows, financial managers tend to loose their ability to out perform the market. Because when you get big enough, at some point you're just the market itself.

The legendary medallion fund famously has a cap on how much money they manage, because otherwise they can't really out perfom the market either.

[ashen salmon]

oh wow I'll need to mull that over

[ashen salmon]

isn't the market at least a little bit of a positive-sum game? I guess trading is zero-sum but investment turns it into negative-zero-positive sum depending on how the economy is doing?

[patent seal]

Yeah, it's generally positive sum, that's why I said outside of "expected market/investor return". This is also sometimes called market beta, it's the positive return of money being lended to companies generating economic benefits.

[ashen salmon]

🤦 failed the reading comprehension qte

[patent seal]

But if you exclude that, any additional money someone makes if off someone elses's loss.

[gusty field]

What operations? I thought neuro was only allowed to buy and sell the first day.
I just hope he sells as soon as possible before they dip again.

[ashen salmon]

operations = buying or selling
yeah vedal only let neuro buy/sell on the first day. I'd like Vedal to allow neuro to buy/sell again

[granite narwhal]

I understand Vedal not wanting them day trading but a window where they could change them every now and then might have been interesting, especially since Neuro went so in on NVDA so it mostly tracks that

But yeah, he checks it a lot so is definitely not unbothered by the performance (and Neuro has no idea how to trade well, obviously not trained to do that)