I'm pretty sure this is some sort of registration order issue, since NBT Studio is showing the internal ID number for my effects changing.
I don't think I'm doing anything unusual with my registration, here is the class: https://github.com/beholderface/oneironaut/blob/1.20.1/common/src/main/java/net/beholderface/oneironaut/registry/OneironautMiscRegistry.java
I saw someone here mention that referring to modded things in mixin classes could mess with registration order, but I just tried moving all the logic that did that into separate classes, and it's still happening.
GitHub
An addon for Hex Casting centered around exploration and use of the noosphere. - beholderface/oneironaut