#QBTS SHORT POSITION

83 messages · Page 1 of 1 (latest)

elfin rapids
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I'm taking 15 strike July 27th puts for these reasons. As a person who has taken countless quantum computing classes and gone to a few research conferences, everyone knows that these small quantum computing companies have lacking technology compared to GOOGL MSFT etc, but even with those companies the consensus on "useful" quantum computing is likely more than 15 years away. The problem isn't with Qubit number its with gate accuracy (it generously took at least 5 years to increase gate accuracy from 99% to 99.5% and we need 99.99% for anything signficantly useful). So what is happening with QBTS? They are up 30% today off of re-releasing the news that their system is available to the public which caused a short squeeze as borrow rates went through the roof. Why can't this last and what are the companies fundamental, well firstly no one is going to buy this system to be honest. QBTS uses quantum annealing which was abandoned by everyone else for a reason, it's much less reliable and is essentially old technology. Now we wonder, why did their revenue grow 125% last quarter? The answer is that they had a 1 time sale to a group of researchers who wanted to test out this quantum annealing (they had 15 million in revenue with 12.5 million coming from this system or something like that). So essentially they have no revenue growth, and are one of the "worst" in the quantum computing space together with $QBTS. If you want useful quantum invest in GOOGL and MSFT, others are worthless. For some honesty, the reason why I quit being a quantum computing focused student is because I lost faith in it. From everything I know gate accuracy will signficantly inhibit quantum computers. Maybe AGI can fix it but for now I see no future in it.

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granite sentinel
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was looking at this company for a few days, am prone to short this pop but I do not have a big position

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elfin rapids
elfin rapids
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Also note this one time sale is their only sale in 4 years and this group lent out the computer to another company which said it’s worse than a regular pc

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Atleast riggeti and ionq are trying to make a real quantum computer rather than this scam

elfin rapids
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adding more puts

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pumping today off ionq ceo comparing itself to nvda

broken plaza
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Did you mean June 27? Or July 18? Also, what’s your reasoning for this timing? Earnings aren’t until August 6, when we’d get a report of how many (or to your point, how few) customers they’ve signed or sold to. Is the idea just that it will drop back after the short squeeze?
Just trying to better understand. I appreciate your write up and dd. I’m not in the quantum computing field but that buzz word is starting to get thrown around in my industry. We’ve all just rolled our eyes at it so far. Great write up!

elfin rapids
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I have both, and stuff for august too. Yeah obviously I think fundamentals will align eventually. Honestly the IV is extremely high so the longer dated stuff doesn’t make sense. Squeezes always come back to earth, but imo these companies are completely worthless ($0 evaluation) especially qbts and qubt who aren’t even trying to create a quantum computer. If quantum happens it will be by GOOGL or IBM imo, like even MSFT has an outside shot which just shows how pointless these small companies are. Appreciate the compliments!

elfin rapids
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-eo_VV0Z4aE&ab_channel=632nm good watch ceo of ionq

YouTube
632nm
Trapped Ion Quantum Computing: From BEC to Big Industry

In this episode of the 632nm podcast, our guest traces the evolution from the early days of Bose-Einstein condensation experiments to pioneering trapped ion quantum gateways. He reveals how breakthroughs in laser cooling and atomic clock research unexpectedly paved the way for the first quantum logic gates, beating out the BEC community at a piv...

▶ Play video
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start from 1 hour ish

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p honest take on the quantum space from someone pro it

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im 220k deep in short/puts rn

elfin rapids
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tldr if quantum does happens its not these small fry companies

broken plaza
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He starts talking about it at 1:10. Gets to it at 1:15. and plugs Quantinuum as touting the highest accuracy at this time.

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Good info. Thanks

grim wren
elfin rapids
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I mean they r doing ta I leave them be

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Doesn’t change fundamentals

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Some UOA but long term doesn’t change my outview

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Now have more shorts than puts

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Their next earnings is going to be v bad. Only 1.2 mm in bookings expected 80% drop in qoq rev

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All the small quantum companies u can mainly think of as p&d scams

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Esp those w quantum in the name

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yeah IBM and GOOGL r from what I heard the top 2 dogs in the quuantum space

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if u dont have any quantum experience its hard to understand whats going on but the first page gives a pretty good summary of their findings

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its essentially the same thing where they find v obscure algorithms that havent been optimized to showcase supremacy

raw heart
elfin rapids
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yeah I have

elfin rapids
raw heart
elfin rapids
broken plaza
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I thought IONQ wasn’t in the quantum annealing space like QBTS and QUBT? He kinda trash talked it in that video above. Made it sound like IONQ was above all that. Maybe he found out it was a grift and got out?

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Or he knew something all along and the rug is about to get pulled.

elfin rapids
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in the quantum sector

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they are related in the sense that when retail thinks quantum they think of those 4 stocks

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so distrust in one affects others

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IONQ is better than QUBT and QBTS in the sense that they are a legit quantum company trying to make a QC but they are still massively overvalued and have been pumped by Masi supremely

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should be investigated imo

elfin rapids
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tp 25% of my short today for risk reason

elfin rapids
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Re entered pure short

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Their quarterly was horrid

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QCAAS revenue fell 40%

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Which is the “advantage” they’ve been claiming

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Only reason rev was up since there was a residual 1.2 m sale from quarter 1

elfin rapids
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I’m planning on slowly sizing up my position

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Borrow rate is very low and every pump I just add to short

elfin rapids
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Getting out now

elfin rapids
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Yeah I made around 25k, did a lot more short/cover but the stock pumps v often

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Okay so the thing is within the quantum space IBM and google are best and they do what RGTI which is error correction gate based QC

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But the thing is QC is such a small part of quantum computing that it hardly captures any % of google and IBM’s current mcap

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So in the sense of creating the best QC u want the most error adjusted qubits at least for what googl/IBM is

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Yeah I don’t really touch puts anymore since these usually take a v slow death

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The arguement for QBTS is they aren’t a QC company

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Legit say they optimize and alr have quantum advantage when they have decreasing revenue and r basically useless

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Honestly I personally own a lot of GOOG just cuz I think it’s a solid company lol

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Atleast my current shorts In quantum is short every pump and close out after 20-25% crash

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I just took outside money for the first time so I stay away from options cuz of that too

elfin rapids
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Yeah I mean I think one of the largest arguement against qc is that no one has found a use for it other than shores

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So it’s uses are very limited

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Creating these algorithms hasn’t happened in 25 years so they can hardly have that much applicable function

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Decryption will happen but ppl will just move away from sha

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Very good video on qc

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I agree w the ai bubble

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But I think google benifits the least from it

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But keep buying dips that’s smart

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I don’t think qc can be an ai fallback simply because it doesn’t have the applications

elfin rapids
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Another decent summary vid of Dwave specifically

elfin rapids
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reshort now

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very large sizing

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about 400k

fickle iron
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Puts?

elfin rapids
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No

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Just short

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Puts too expensive

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Thing needs to die

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Started a rgti and qubt short today again asw

elfin rapids
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took some profit ont he qubt offering