#One
honest grail
I'd argue that where you dodge could be important in Dark Souls, but I don't think that's what you're looking to talk about.
I think predictability, paradoxically, is where satisfaction comes from. The player is constantly trying to learn how to predict their opponent's behavior. When they successfully predict it, and come up with a successful preparation and response to that behavior, the player feels immense satisfaction because their expectations were met. When they fail to do this, they feel distress because their expectations of reality are in a state of turmoil.
The player sees that learning as the challenge, and the goal would be to make that challenge achievable. But then to provide the next challenge. Chasing that understanding is what players seek. So it means nothing if they can never achieve it, and it means nothing if it's too easily achieved.
Conversely, sometimes players want to relax with something they already understand, like watching a movie you've seen or a book you've read a dozen times.
So I think you're right that the meaningful choices matter because they are how the player finds out if they understand enough or not.
tranquil latch
I've put hundreds of hours into my favorite pve game. the reason why I keep playing is that there are >6 different enemy types that have vastly different attack patterns and situations where they're most threatening, and situations where you can quickly and safely kill them -- the way that the game is "unpredictable" is the random enemy spawn points and squad compositions, which if you're unlucky, will dump a very threatening amount of enemies in a place that's very unfavorable for the player. That way you have to make your reactions quick, and you'd better do it well, otherwise that single situation will kill you and end a 30-60 minute match.
however, it sounds like your biggest gripe is with boss design. in that case, the boss's moveset, phases, the design of the arena, etc. will affect the player's experience the most. a good variety of the base moves as well as a few random elements would be optimal
leaden terrace
It kinda works the same in multiplayer games, doesnt it? The difference would be that there are more variables to consider while predicting another player's actions. Every time I get a kill on another player I get that sweet dopamine hit, while in pve games it only works the first couple of times. I'll talk about bosses again. The first 10 attempts you try to kill it it's interesting cause your brain is actually working, after that it's a memory/reaction exercise, cause you memorized how to respond and just have to time it right (yes i know phase shifts help). And after 90 more attempts you get satisfaction from the fact that you dont have to sweat anymore. It's fun to perfectly learn a musical piece and impress everyone at a party, but it's not the kind of fun i want in videogames. So maybe it's possible to fix it but just making some super smart ai and pinch a little randomness into it.
honest grail
I'd disagree just a little. Having the skill to respond a certain way figuring out how to respond to hopefully achieve a desired result, and figuring out what result to desire are 3 different things. And I'm sure there are another few elements as a part of that cycle.
For example, in smash bros, you may want to send your opponent off the stage, but knowing the combo to accomplish that is different than being able to do that, and even if you manage it, it may have been a poor outcome depending on yourself and your opponent.
An opponent could also be making a gambit.
The player accomplishing their goal could still be a pyrrhic victory.
It's always a puzzle of some sort. The bit that makes puzzles enjoyable is the player having all the pieces they need to solve it. One issue is that some (most) puzzles have multiple effective solutions. Another is that not all of those solutions use all the pieces available. Just like how there are multiple ways for music to evoke a particular emotional experience without needing to use every note.
Additionally, not all players fall into a rhythm like the one you described where their brain works less. Some players continue to engage and reflect on every choice they make and the outcome it has. In fact, how much they do this directly correlates to their skill tier. (This may be what you're referring to as phase shifts, but I'm not familiar with that term)