#What exactly does it mean to get bad dice? Looking for collaborators to expand the Risk calculator

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nova charm
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Have you ever got your cap rolled, the opponent goes even and you think to yourself: "uggh, bad dice"? But did you actually got bad dice or are your expectations distorted from reality?

I'm interested in builiding a website that helps resolve this question. The new calculator would be able to tell you:

  1. Average number of troops that you should expect to lose.
  2. Expected number of troop loss with bad dice.
  3. Expected number of troop loss with good dice.

In order to do this I'm looking for people with any technical knowledge or insight into how the balanced blitz dice work. If you don't know how the balanced blitz work you could also help with this project if you have any experience in front-end development.

I'm aware that there was an update to the dice recently which greatly impacts this project, however I'm hoping that we can start working with the old calculator and update the website once we know the code for the new balanced blitz.

This forum is also to ask the Risk staff: is the new dice code getting released? If so, when?

edgy peak
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I did put some data here (didn't bother with larger numbers, since those were not implemented as such in game anyway, before). The problem is mainly how to display it, I think. This calculator does it quite nicely for TR.

The dice code can be found on the SMG GitHub. I wrote a little bit of text to explain the steps in the BB logic, since I didn't find the comments in the code that helpful (the examples in the comments also use different values for parameters than the ones actually being used).

nova charm
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Thanks a lot for your response, this is actually more than I could have asked for and it gives me a great head start.

The basic idea for the website would be to have a simple interface like the one that you put on the first page of your spreadsheet or the one on the famous calculator by jimothyyadoofus and then not only give the win% but also a graph (imagine a bell curve) which is divided into 3 sections or ranges (Normal, good dice and bad dice). Each section would have it's "average value" or expected value as a subtitle, thus giving you a sense of how many troops should you actually expect to lose in practice.

The last bit which I don't know exactly how to include would be an option for the user to input the actual number of troops that they lost and then output a message describing how bad their dice actually was.

I have a couple of questions regarding your data but I'll DM you for those, thanks again!