Screenshot Discussion

[native bane]

Discuss this screenshot here

[shrewd verge]

is clearly skill issue 😄

[forest badger]

Yeah, lack of skill in designing a program for statistically accurrate probable dice rolls 😆

[shrewd verge]

I think you need to read more about dice odds 😄

[forest badger]

I was writing programs for random "dice rolls" in highschool, 40 years ago

I lost my cap 1st turn before I even played, I went last, all my options for choosing a cap was next to another cap! No worries, I won that game anyway

[shrewd verge]

Well in that case you're very well aware that when you have 3 attackers and 3 defenders, it only takes two bad battles for losing 6 troops without attacker losing any - in that case shown above it's 4 battles (2 net won 2 net lost) as it was 12 troops killed in total between attackers and defenders.

Very small number of dice rolls = higher variance / reliance on luck - with more consistency by rolling it more.

If you want to look at the dice algorithm used for true random there's more info about it publicly available on github

algorithmlink

[trim ocean]

https://github.com/smgstudio/risk-dice

[shrewd verge]

PCG for the default / true random one - completely unmodified

[forest badger]

Ok explain this one, cap roll where attacker looses 141 and I lose 138

[shrewd verge]

This is now balanced blitz, actually modified - the troop loss you're seeing is due to the estimation technique

You realise your two screenshots are different dice algorithms / implementations right?

[forest badger]

3 dice each, ties go to the defender, its that simple... I can calculate the odds but I dont need to. If it walks like a duck....

[shrewd verge]

That's also not how balanced blitz works, so clearly not "that simple"

[forest badger]

Then its a charade

[shrewd verge]

If you don't know which algorithm you're complaining about & haven't even looked into how any of them work, this is a pretty pointless chat for me to get involved in

[shrewd verge]

Go look at it for yourself if you like^^^^

[forest badger]

Everyone knows balanced blitz cap rolls is broken

[shrewd verge]

You were complaining about true random cap rolls, which is what we were talking about - do you know why balanced blitz cap rolls are considered broken - how it actually works? Or how balanced blitz works?

[forest badger]

Yeah, one sucks, the other one sucks even more

Do you know the old school way of cheating at dice rolls?

[forest badger]

Im honored that you took the time for me by the way

[forest badger]

Speaking of skill issue, what kind of skill would the attacking player have to roll a 8 vs. 6 on a cap first turn facing a statistically improbable outcome, win that battle, leaving me without a cap, only to have me eventually dominate and win the game with ease?

If thats how your precious algorithms work with outcomes like that then your promoting wreckless poor play

[shrewd verge]

To be fair it's only unskilled players taking stupid risks like that turn one 😄 so them losing was pretty likely, as they showed they didn't know how to play already

[forest badger]

Very logical evaluation. What part of you Luci, the 99% robot or the 1% human that decided to goad me with the skill issue wisecrack?

[strange briar]

And here comes the arguement
Anyone want some popcorn while we watch?

[shrewd verge]

How someone replies to a joke like that is quite a good way to get to know them (and which direction they're going) pretty quickly 😄

Better understanding of who I'm talking to = better way to engage that said, doesn't really answer your question

[forest badger]

🤔

😕

[forest badger]

And whats your ultimate evaluation of "which direction I'm going" after this conversation? (Since I responded with a better wisecrack than your initial one)

Hey Luci, I was playing Risk decades before you were even a twinkle in your programmers eyes, so I should probably be the one doing the evaluating, of you, the game, and the whole format provided by SMG (I love it, been addicted since the inception, except the frickn highly statistically improbable dice rolls that happen way to often and turn people off from playing the game)

[slate beacon]

I got some

[strange briar]

🧈🧈🧈🍿

[verbal surge]

Imma just leave this here for when you are feeling better @forest badger https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Observer_bias

[forest badger]

So it only seems like the dice dont work from my perspective? Right.

[forest badger]

And I won the game anyway so Im feeling great

[shrewd verge]

Humans are inherently terrible at gauging probability, there's a reason casinos are a plague across the modern world 😄
If you want to look at your overall dice rolls you can visit https://www.hasbrorisk.com/ - click any players name from leaderboard & replace their friend ID with yours in the URL at the top

I bet you don't screenshot when dice rolls behave as you expect // your capital defence works etc - so all of your screenshots would fall under observer bias (you have a preconceived belief that you are then selectively collecting data that matches your beliefs, and disregarding everything else)

[forest badger]

Yeah, ok Luci, i was just venting cuz i lost my cap 1st turn

[forest badger]

And your game is witnout flaws

[shrewd verge]

You playing manual placement with fog now? 😄
I never claimed it's without bugs etc - and it's going off topic again from your screenshot

[forest badger]

Dice are flawed, so me pointing out other flaws is on topic

[shrewd verge]

But what you initially posted isn't flawed at all

[shrewd verge]

^^^

[forest badger]

Ok, but your original comment was flawed, dice rolls have nothing to do with skill

[forest badger]

Can you calculate for me the odds of an attack on a cap where the attacker loses 143 and the defender loses 138?

[forest badger]

Actually, Your kinda right, I didnt post screenshots like where I attacked a cap with 15 troops and I lost 56

[forest badger]

Further more, yes the outcome of that battle was not impossible, just highly unlikely, and it sucked to have it happen 1st turn, and lose my cap, when I chose the best spot on the board considering my other choices, so my comment was incredibly accurate, that cap roll was frickn bs, from my perspective

[fervent rune]

Then you can try true random dice on caps 😈 which is broken.

[fervent rune]

I have a question. Is there is a thing that novices get better dice rolls than gm

[forest badger]

Ask luci about that, she tried to explain the difference in the algorithms

[forest badger]

I swear it seems like that

[fervent rune]

I always lose double on cap rolls on balanced blitz☹️

[forest badger]

We had a 53 comment treatise on improbable dice rolls

[fervent rune]

But in that screen shot he got 143 for a 138 cap. What is that

[strange briar]

Luck of the dice

[fervent rune]

It was balanced blitz not true random.

[strange briar]

Theres still alot of luck involved in rolls in bb
Not as much as tr tho

[forest badger]

I lost 56 attacking a 15 cap once

Luci asked if i knew the dif btw bb and tr, I said one sucks the other one sucks more

[fervent rune]

You know when the caps exceed huge amount of troops. Like for example 2000v1500 cap rolls in balanced blitz the roll odds show as ??? Which makes me confused that should I roll that Or not

[strange briar]

It cant really calculate that high i think, but usually iv found i win those
Might lose 1k troops in the process

[forest badger]

Total bs is what that was. Id love to know the odds of that happening. Seems impossible

[fervent rune]

Normally you should lose double like instead of143 it should be around somewhere 250 when i roll

Let's make this screen shot discussion to 100 messages 🤣

[forest badger]

Right, i never attack a cap unless I have like 3x the troops, but after losing that 56 to a 15 i dont know now.

Luci was saying the odds of unexpected outcomes decreases with higher troops, which prompted me to post that 143-138 game

[fervent rune]

I never hesitate to roll if it was tr in your case

[forest badger]

I used to pay more attention and adjust my play whether it was tr or bb, but Ive seen so much crazy improbable or impossible outcomes i dont care as much anymore

[fervent rune]

If every roll is not 100% in tr then what's the point of fear. You know you can lose any roll at any point of time

[forest badger]

It forces me to be more conservative and encourages noobs to play more wreckless and poorly. I like a little luck as a factor in the game, but the unpredictability adds way too much luck and lowers skill factor

[fervent rune]

When I use slider in tr I lose more than if I didn't use slider

[fervent rune]

Which is why novices like true random because they know of they can't defeat you in terms of skill they can defeat using luck.

[forest badger]

I used to move slider down to like 3 to weaken a player and quick fire, i usually take more losses until I get a big crazy hit on them, then quit the attack

We're at 79 comments

[fervent rune]

I see

20 more

[forest badger]

Do you play fixed or progressive?

[fervent rune]

I play fixed because Idk how to cardblock

[forest badger]

I mostly only play fixed too but I card block in fixed all the time

[fervent rune]

Card block in fixed doesn't matter a lot

[forest badger]

Not as much, but it can help win a game, especially if like 2 weaker players are ganging up on the stronger player

It can piss people off too, which can be good if your hoping they slam your cap

[fervent rune]

Yes

[fervent rune]

In that case I first focus on guarding my bonus and focusing on one player and kill him

[forest badger]

The old south american card block is practically inevatable, or trapping a player in ausie while your holding indonesia on classic map

[fervent rune]

You usually play random maps with cap

[forest badger]

I play classic fixed fog blizz, or no blizz, sometimes advanced euro since thats the big thing now, and if i see a game on classic map expert and higher no caps Ill play

[fervent rune]

1v1?

[forest badger]

Never got into other different maps, I watch Pete play them, but ive been learning the intricate strategies in classic for almost 50 years. I only play 6 player

[forest badger]

Is that a challenge?

[forest badger]

Or a question if I play it?

[fervent rune]

Is challenge

[forest badger]

Sure, never played it but lets do it

[forest badger]

Ranked or casual

I have no 1v1 rank

[fervent rune]

Your wish

[forest badger]

I lost my premium account so I cant do fog or blizz but otherwise i can set it up in ranked, unless you want to

Oh ok

[fervent rune]

I set that up code is h2m8f

[forest badger]

That was an ass kickn

Thats physically challenging with my phone tucked up in a window trying to get internet signal

[fervent rune]

I'm also playing on phone@forest badger

[fervent rune]

One more?

[forest badger]

At least I can say ive done it now

Sure, with bots?

[fervent rune]

How many

[forest badger]

The more the merrier

[fervent rune]

YP89P@forest badger

[forest badger]

Switching account where i have more tokens...

[fervent rune]

What happened to premimum

[forest badger]

I lost my phone when they parted ways with fb, you used to be able to sign in with fb and even have your fb profile pic instead of avatar

[forest badger]

Crap out of tokens there watching adds

[fervent rune]

QBUG3 . Idk how it got cancelled

[forest badger]

Apparently i suck at 1 v 1

Valid criticizm of my game is Im only good at specific settings