Turn Position?

[deep stratus]

How to increase your chances at becoming 3rd position on turns.

[median hare]

It's random, so if you want to get third more often you need to play more.

[deep stratus]

but when im the host 75% times i get first position. I dont think its luck based. I have seen this with many other players too I understand that even as host you can become last but it never happens usually. i also generally reconginize if you join in 4th or 3rd position higher chnace of you becoming 5-6 position also depends on 1/6 lobby or 1/4 seems like a cool thing to test.

[prime sun]

…. Its random

[deep stratus]

no

[prime sun]

You’ve stated a bunch of random anecdotes that you see ‘sometimes’ and things that ‘never happen usually’. You thought you noticed a pattern so you started looking for it. If you’re looking for a particular pattern you’ll convince yourself its there. What would be the purpose of SMG programming this? What would be the point of them keeping it a secret? What would be the point of them programming it so that certain things happen sometimes but not all the time? There is absolutely zero reason for this to be a thing, and zero evidence that it is a thing. You’re talking absolute nonsense

[sleek rose]

I only host my own lobby’s in ranked FFA and im telling you now I get like 5-6th turn position often enough 😂

[deep stratus]

You state a factual statement by pointing out how you can convice yourself into thinking it. But what if your trying to find it for a specfic goal or reason you would want to be fair there would also be no reason for be to convince myself into thinking if i want to know the postions for a reason i will find evidence to understand it because only then can i prove it and make sure that its true. I clealy said 75%, it is so specfic it should be supported with evidence. Not like you did not care to ask. Next SMG would have no reason. Why not to promote playes to start there own lobby? Also what do you mean by certain things happen at certain times i said its not random did you not here by statement. Your just trying to bring out random points to debunk my argument because you believe that its random and dont want to give interest that its not. Thats not how a agrument works you have to listen to both sides. So dont say im talking nonsense. You are trying blame because you cant understand how a argument works.

[sleek rose]

It’s completely random buddy.

[prime sun]

What in the god damn

[deep stratus]

no.

[sleek rose]

I mean it definitely is.

[lyric dirge]

I love that OP asked a question, people who know the answer, answered, and OP just says no 😂😂

[digital fractal]

you can start in 3rd position more often by playing games with fewer players, but at least 3 including bots and yourself

[deep stratus]

they all are wrong lol. No but fr i disagree with them and thats my fair opinion i created this fourm for input or opinion the topic now that i have it i decide to stay with my own opinion and ill repect yours equally my disagrement is no mandtorial judgement.

[crystal crow]

Well but if it's random it's random, you can't just disagree with facts - What you're probably experiencing is the fact that a small sample isn't representative (law of small numbers)

[lyric dirge]

You can’t just disagree with a fact and call it an opinion. Turn order is completely random. If you don’t believe us (people with thousands of games played) just test it out yourself. Play a whole bunch of single player games and record your position. You’ll see that over time you’ll be in each position an equal percentage. Or do the same thing when playing ranked although single player will take less time since you can just quit and repeat immediately

[lusty cave]

You're right, it's not random. If you want to be third in turn order every time, you have to play when Mercury is in retrograde, and you have to align your crystals properly. Good luck!

[coral elk]

Well, is it a bad thing to recognize patterns even in something that is random? Two things can be true at the same time. I play 1 game a day in both 1v1 and FFA. I believe the assignment to be randomly generated. That being said, I do find myself in position 1 more often than position 6 (in my FFA games). That is my personal experience. It is observational data, but it doesn’t make it untrue or make me crazy either. However, when all games played are calculated, is their a 16% rate of the host being first? I’m sure there is. Just like those dice always say I get 16% 6’a too.

[lyric dirge]

It’s not a problem to think you recognize a pattern. As you said you believe you are in position 1 more often than position 6. That doesn’t mean you’re right though. You have no possible way of remembering every position you’ve been in and I doubt you’re recording it. It is a problem though when you disagree with the experts (not many people know more about the game than Hokaras) when they answer your question and call facts opinions. We know that turn order is random just like we know the earth orbits the sun. Saying turn order isn’t random is like arguing that the sun orbits the earth. Sure you can see that pattern, but if you look closer you can see it’s not true and every expert will tell you that

[coral elk]

How much data would you like before you believe a pattern? How many games?

[lyric nymph]

At least 60 is pretty standard to do such a test.

[lyric dirge]

I would argue it needs to be much higher if you are trying to prove a statistically significant difference with 6 possible outcomes. If you roll a dice 60 times you’re probably going to be nowhere near an equal 10 for each outcome

[coral elk]

You are actually proving my point that I was trying to make Ace. Both things can be true. I believe the programming is random and placement is random. I have noticed in the last bunch of games (I would argue all of the games I have played FFA six player) that I have only been in position 6, once. I know I have been in position 1 more than the other positions. But, that doesn’t mean it isn’t still random. If you examine placement of all games played, I’m sure there is an equal chance of being in each placement. That doesn’t mean that my experience of being in each placement will be equal.

[lyric nymph]

At least an expected value of 10 per bin is pretty standard to do a decent chi-square test. Idk, how else you wanna test it.

[coral elk]

I will keep a log next season. I average one 1 v 1 game a day, which will provide some data as I usually add two bots, so each should be about 25%. I’ll do the same thing for my 6 player games as well, the data will be interesting to see and share. If nothing else, one of us will have their point of view affirmed. (I play a little less 6 player with work currently, so that data might not be a great sample size.)

[lyric dirge]

I think you missed my point. OP asked a question and experts answered the question. OP then literally replied “no” and tried to say that it wasn’t random. I then responded and said hey listen to the experts or if you don’t want to do that just test it yourself. My point was either believe the people you asked the question to, or test it yourself, but don’t waste everyone’s time

[coral elk]

That is the tough part of communicating through a message board. You could both be right, and yet how your messages were written, you both missed each other’s points. You could have explained that given the small sample size his observations could have been true, and yet his conclusions might (and probably are) incorrect. There is a gracious way of telling someone they are wrong. I have tried to reinforce that both of you could be correct in what you are saying. But hey… we all have our good days (with more patience) or our medium days (with some patience) or our bad days (with no patience). I always appreciate Jack’s perspective because as well versed with numbers as he is, he always seems to have the patience with people (like me) who might not have his adeptness with numbers.

[lyric dirge]

I mean Slack already explained it. I'm not going to repeat what someone else already said. There's really no other way to reword it that would make it more understandable imo. I think telling someone that they are wrong and explaining to them how they can test it is pretty fair. Not having patience would of just been ignoring OP and just not responding, but instead I took the time out of my day to give some advice. 4 people stated that it was random before I ever chimed in on this post.

[thorn plover]

I’ve seen devs state on multiple ocassions that turn order is completely random, but every so often players contest it.

The best proof one way or the other would be for devs to release the code that determines turn order, so players can independently see how it works.

[lyric dirge]

There’s no reason they couldn’t release it IMO. But if they won’t even tell us what all the tie breakers are (something actually useful for players), or how zombies pathing works, I kinda doubt they are going to release game code.

I do get how players can think it might not be random though. I seem to get 6th A LOT in tournament games (which really decreases the chances of winning in most prog games). And maybe I do, but it’s probably just me remembering all of those times more because of the negative experience. I’m also a firm believer that it would be WAY harder to code a way that certain players get certain positions more often than it would be just to make it random. Add the fact that there’s no benefit to the game for certain players to get certain positions and the devs would never do that

[umbral galleon]

I normally get 3rd or 1st🤣

[thorn plover]

They released the balanced blitz code when players asked, just took some time