Anyone know the drop chances of the new raid exotic?

[stark mulch]

and like do i need to do the triumphs to even have a reasonable chance of getting it?

[woven kelp]

anecdotally, I've seen one drop about every other run. Definitely not that rare, the triumphs are more of a safeguard against bad luck

[timid vault]

Iirc every raid exotic has 10% drop chance at start

[unique tinsel]

5% for normal mode (for vex) and iirc collective was different at 2.5% initially. 10-15% is the chances on master mode

Seems like collective may be 5 or 10 tho

[misty apex]

all i know is that practically everyone who did the flawless triumph got the exotic their next run