The title says it all (just whatever you think Nintendo has to offer in 2024)
#Predicting Nintendo’s 2024 Lineup
paper eagle
Here’s what I’m thinking:
JANUARY:
Another Code: Recollection
FEBRUARY:
Mario vs. Donkey Kong Remake
Metroid Prime 2 Shadowdrop
MARCH:
Princess Peach Showtime
APRIL:
FE Genealogy of the Holy War Remake (with Thracia 776 included either in the base game or as a DLC campaign?)
MAY:
Mario & Sonic 2024
JUNE:
Luigi’s Mansion 2 HD
JULY:
Oracle of Ages/Seasons Remake (uses the same visuals as the Link’s Awakening Remake)
Paper Mario TTYD Remake (20th Anniversary Release)
AUGUST:
Tomodachi World
Xenoblade Chronicles X Port
SEPTEMBER:
Wind Waker HD + Twilight Princess HD Shadowdrop
OCTOBER:
Xenoblade Warriors
NOVEMBER:
Animal Crossing: Bell Festival (an Animal Crossing spin-off similar to Mario Party that’s very different from Amiibo Festival)
DECEMBER:
Pushmo Park (a collection of the 3DS Pushmo games + Pushmo World + a new game; Splitmo) (this would also be released under physical copies)
I wouldn’t expect any word on a Switch successor any time throughout the year.
analog forge
I think next year will be dominated by smaller scale projects, remakes, and a conversation about Nintendo's next console. Nintendo's financial reports and software schedule for the latter half of this year + next year convinces me that Nintendo has shifted the bulk of their dev resources to the next console, and that it will be revealed in the coming year and perhaps even released the very same year.
Another Code: Recollection | January 19th, 2024
Mario vs. Donkey Kong (2024) | February 16th, 2024
Princess Peach: Showtime! | March 2nd, 2024
Splatoon 3 Expansion Pass, Wave 2 “Side Order” | Spring 2024
Luigi’s Mansion 2 HD | Summer 2024
Fire Emblem Remake | Summer 2024
Nintendo Switch Successor Reveal | Late Summer, Early Fall 2024
3DS Port, maybe Kid Icarus or Metroid: Samus Returns | Later 2024
Paper Mario: The Thousand Year Door (2024) | Later 2024
Metroid Prime 4 | Later 2024
Something Pokemon | Late 2024
paper eagle
To me about these…
- We might not see another 3DS port until 2025. Maybe it’ll be Kid Icarus Uprising? The Samus Returns port sounds like a legit idea as much as A Link Between Worlds.
- I’d speculate the Switch successor would be revealed in late 2025 and would launch in September 2026 and Metroid Prime 4 as a launch title (commemorating Metroid’s 40th anniversary).
For Pokémon, I’m not vaguely into it (which is why I didn’t add any Pokémon predictions).
analog forge
For the Switch Successor thing, the reason why I think a reveal next year makes the most sense is perhaps best illustrated by declining hardware sales.
Switch Hardware Sales (Nintendo's FY start April 1st and ends at the end of March):
FY 2020 - 28.82 Million
FY 2021 - 23.06 Million (-5.76 Million)
FY 2022 - 17.97 Million (-5.09 Million)
Current FY - 6.84 Million (ongoing)
Nintendo expects to sell just over 8 million more units this year, but even that is 3 million less consoles than last year and they also failed to meet their sales expectation for hardware sales last year, so who knows if they meet that expectation this year.
If Nintendo keeps the Switch on the market through 2024 with no new system announced, I think they will really drag their heels and people will lose interest in Nintendo/the next console. They have to balance out both excitement for the Switch brand and sales for the current system. It may be that they don't release the console in 2024, but I do expect them to hype up the next console at some point next year. Especially since at this point, Nintendo is done with big budget games on Switch. Everything coming out after TOTK/Pikmin 4 has been DLC, smaller budget games, and remakes.
paper eagle
Given how Nintendo’s fiscal year calendar rolls, there’s still plenty of time left to meet the expectation. If the fiscal year of 2024 doesn’t meet the sale expectation (whatever it ends up being), maybe it’ll prove me right that 2025 is when the Switch successor is revealed? I could be wrong (especially on the timing).
I felt that 2026 being the release year for Metroid Prime 4 would’ve made more sense than 2024 and even 2025 aside from commemorating Metroid’s 40th anniversary, I guarantee we’ll also see ports of Metroid Prime 2+3 on their own time. I still stand on the grounds of Metroid Prime 4 being the last major Switch title (as well as a launch title for the Switch successor). Given this, I’m not sure if it would make sense to price Metroid Prime 4 just as much as TotK.
Given your point that everything after TotK, Pikmin 4, and SMB Wonder were either DLC, smaller budget games, or remakes and ports (four of which were given), I’ve indeed predicted a vast number of ports/remakes, being 14 (counting the Pushmo collection game). Peach, a Tomodachi Life sequel and a Xenoblade Warriors game wouldn’t sound just as big as per se, those two big budget games you mentioned as well as SMB Wonder. There might be some content left to go on the Switch after 2024 (even if I guarantee 2025 will be its last full year before a successor).
analog forge
I just don't see Nintendo hanging on to this hardware for another two or three years. They'll lose way too much momentum. The absolute latest I see a successor console release is November 2025, but that's only if this holiday rush exceeds expectations and they sell well over 15 million units.
analog forge
There are two quarters left in Nintendo's fiscal year, one of which being their historical best performing one.
Switch Q3 AVG: 9.65 Million
Q3 '17 - 07.23 Million
Q3 '18 - 09.41 Million
Q3 '19 - 10.81 Million
Q3 '20 - 11.57 Million
Q3 '21 - 10.67 Million
Q3 '22 - 8.22 Million
Switch Q4 AVG: 3.33 Million
Q4 '16 - 2.74 Million
Q4 '17 - 2.93 Million
Q4 '18 - 2.47 Million
Q4 '19 - 3.29 Million
Q4 '20 - 4.72 Million
Q4 '21 - 4.11 Million
Q4 '22 - 3.07 Million
If we add the averages to the total we have now, Switch would sell 19.82 Million units by the end of the FY. Though we know that Switch has been falling short of the averages and continues to post weaker numbers.
I would expect Q3 this year to move around 6-7 million and Q4 1-2 million, bringing the FY total to somewhere between 13 and 15 million (which is in line with Nintendo's own expectation). But we will see. Either way, I see a third consecutive decline in this year's hardware sales, even if it's not as dramatic as in 2021/2022 where they lost 5 million in momentum per year. It'll probably be like -2 to -4 million versus 2022 - largely helped by Zelda and all the new hardware bundles they are doing.
If we took the Switch to 2025 like you're saying, I think it would turn out something like this.
'20 - 28.82 M
'21 - 23.06 M
'22 - 17.97 M
'23 - 13-15 M (est.)
'24 - 8-11 M (est.) (bigger decline since there's nothing like TOTK)
'25 - 5-8 M (est.)
paper eagle
Fair enough I guess. November 2025 does sound legit to me. My only problem was that it might be a bit too ahead of Metroid’s 40th anniversary and I felt that Metroid Prime 4 could possibly be slated for that if I’m sticking to my grounds of it being a launch title on the Switch successor.
analog forge
I don't know how much Nintendo cares about anniversaries tbh. I'm skeptical of the idea that they would hold up a game for over a year just to make that date, and especially so to hold up a console release. I suppose time will tell though.
I do agree with you that Metroid Prime 4 feels like it will release on both systems in some way.
What we do know is that Nintendo has held back games for console releases, like they did with Breath of the Wild / Twilight Princess.
So if Metroid Prime 4 is coming in the next year or two, I would expect them to release close to each other.
If they are indeed making a "Switch 2" version
Which they may not be tbh
Metroid sells very modestly so it may be worth using those resources to make a "Switch 2" version of something higher profile at release
But It just kinda feels like they would release them on both systems regardless
modern lynx
my prediction
Super Mario Bros Wonder DS
Dracula the video game
Codename STEAM 2
Fire Emblem: Emblem of Fire
And
DC Super Hero Girls 2
paper eagle
Even if most of the things I predicted that the year will have more remakes than new games (assuming the Switch successor would still be slated for 2026 w/Metroid Prime 4 as one of the launch titles to coincide with Metroid’s 40th anniversary), I’d guarantee 2025 would see bigger stuff like a new DKC game and a new 3D Mario game (perhaps a sequel to Odyssey or whatever, maybe if it’s like the TotK for Mario) that coincides with Mario’s 40th anniversary. It would kind of make 2025 like a big blowout year and a last hurrah.
analog forge
I really think this year was the last big hurrah, and big projects like 3D Mario will be for the next system
bc if they don't, the next console won't have enough games
I thought we were going to get a 3D Mario this year as the holiday game since TOTK was not the holiday title
But the fact that it is a 2D game really just supports my theory that ambitious/expensive new games are effectively over beyond MP4.
paper eagle
2025 being the release year on the Switch successor is okay enough to me. I only assumed that Nintendo would remaster the entire Metroid Prime trilogy before releasing the Switch successor with Metroid Prime 4 as a launch title. Perhaps 2024 will see shadowdrops on Metroid Prime 2 and 3 as well as an update from Nintendo on the Switch successor (there doesn’t seem to be enough of a window on a 2024 release since Nintendo never bothered unveiling anything about it).
modern lynx
I am starting to wonder if the Switch 2 is even going to be a traditional successor like the GameCube was to the N64 and maybe just an update on the same formula like the GBC vs GB or the New 3DS was to the regular 3DS.
analog forge
I'm expecting something very similar in feel to the PS4->PS5
Same idea, just updated hardware and a means to play the old games at a smoother frame rate
- some games receiving updates to take advantage of new hardware
modern lynx
So a regular console generation like N64 to GameCube.