#Meteorology

1 messages ยท Page 14 of 1

normal frost
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what the fuck

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why is swio alive now

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blossom is kinda a funny name considering all the other names lmao

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its so like

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normal

atomic flint
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ikr

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its like

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wtf is that name doing here

atomic flint
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...MINI MARIO FORMS JUST OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE STATE OF
MICHOACAN...

SUMMARY OF 900 AM CST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION

LOCATION...17.2N 101.9W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM SSW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM SSE OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES

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mini mario rofl

normal frost
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MINI MARIO

atomic flint
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if it becomes a hurricane will it be big mario

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๐Ÿคจ

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||alternatively if it becomes a sheared slop does it become mushroom mario||

normal frost
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i cant take this storm seriously

atomic flint
normal frost
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tfw mario already died

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what a SLOP

atomic flint
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ikr wtf

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LOL

atomic flint
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@normal frost

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...MARIO HAS A SECOND LIFE AS A TROPICAL STORM...

SUMMARY OF 800 AM MST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION

LOCATION...18.5N 110.2W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM ESE OF SOCORRO ISLAND
ABOUT 305 MI...490 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES

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guess which fucker had a 1-up in store

normal frost
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wtf

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guess we shouldve known

atomic flint
normal frost
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bruh everything is trying to avoid ph this year lmao

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its literally trying to move around luzon

atomic flint
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mario weakening

normal frost
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what the fuck

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those bands

normal frost
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nice td bro

atomic flint
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but like

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????????????????????

normal frost
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crazy fuckin RI

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that form looks borderline typhoon lmao

normal frost
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jtwc sleepge

atomic flint
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made landfall

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(STILL not named)

normal frost
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cooked

normal frost
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still not named

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for some fuckin reason

atomic flint
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i mean it made landfall

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but Yeah

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anyway gabrielle is a thing

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natl storm

normal frost
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yea

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its aiming straight for bermuda seems like

atomic flint
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but wpac is

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awake

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jma now has 3 different GW TDs

atomic flint
normal frost
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jfc lol

atomic flint
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holy shit the other 2 TDs got named

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we now have

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mitag, neoguri, ragasa

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@normal frost

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Death

normal frost
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holy fuck

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welp it was a good run for ph I suppose

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I still do not know why vietnam ate so many storms this year

normal frost
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wtf

normal frost
atomic flint
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pagasa now forecasts super typhoon for ragasa

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๐Ÿ’€

normal frost
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wtf

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let it cook

normal frost
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?????

atomic flint
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Not Be Good

normal frost
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the fuck is that

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thats like what ~c4 pressure

atomic flint
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yeah

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a c4 on the pearl river delta

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that would be

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๐Ÿ’€

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pagasa cone also has this

normal frost
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whens the last time we had a c4 there

random flower
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what is this bro ๐Ÿ’”

random flower
normal frost
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fucked up

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thats looking really bad for ph and south china

atomic flint
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RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME  TY 2519 NEOGURI (2519)
ANALYSIS
PSTN  201200UTC 26.3N 155.0E GOOD
MOVE  WNW 11KT
PRES  950HPA
MXWD  090KT
GUST  130KT
50KT  55NM
30KT  180NM EAST 120NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF  210000UTC 27.0N 152.7E 30NM 70%
MOVE  WNW 10KT
PRES  940HPA
MXWD  095KT
GUST  135KT
24HF  211200UTC 28.3N 151.0E 42NM 70%
MOVE  NW 10KT
PRES  935HPA
MXWD  100KT
GUST  140KT
48HF  221200UTC 30.1N 150.8E 85NM 70%
MOVE  N SLOWLY
PRES  935HPA
MXWD  100KT
GUST  140KT```
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Neoguri 90kts koba

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wasnt able to post but first jma major of the year

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even scarier

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RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME  TY 2518 RAGASA (2518)
ANALYSIS
PSTN  201200UTC 17.3N 128.6E GOOD
MOVE  NW 06KT
PRES  955HPA
MXWD  080KT
GUST  115KT
50KT  70NM
30KT  300NM SOUTHEAST 210NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF  211200UTC 18.9N 125.5E 42NM 70%
MOVE  WNW 08KT
PRES  940HPA
MXWD  090KT
GUST  130KT
48HF  221200UTC 19.9N 121.0E 55NM 70%
MOVE  W 11KT
PRES  915HPA
MXWD  105KT
GUST  150KT```
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105kts koba forecasted for Ragasa (equivalent to C5)

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jtwc also went major for ragasa

atomic flint
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๐Ÿ“‘ Translated from Japanese

ใ€Flying tomorrow!ใ€‘Flying into the eye of a typhoon by aircraft to directly measure temperature, pressure, and more, #TyphoonAircraftObservation will be conducted tomorrow, the 21st, the day after, the 22nd, targeting #Typhoon19. Professor Tsuboki, Deputy Director of TRC is also scheduled to be on board! Direct observation of the typhoon is expected to provide valuable data that will improve prediction accuracy.

Original text
ใ€ๆ˜Žๆ—ฅ้ฃ›ใณใพใ™๏ผใ€‘่ˆช็ฉบๆฉŸใงๅฐ้ขจใฎ็œผใพใง้ฃ›ใ‚“ใงใ„ใใ€ๆธฉๅบฆใ‚„ๆฐ—ๅœงใชใฉใ‚’็›ดๆŽฅๆธฌใ‚‹ #ๅฐ้ขจ่ˆช็ฉบๆฉŸ่ฆณๆธฌ ใŒๆ˜Žๆ—ฅ21ๆ—ฅใจๆ˜ŽๅพŒๆ—ฅ22ๆ—ฅใ€ #ๅฐ้ขจ19ๅท ใ‚’ๅฏพ่ฑกใซ่กŒใ‚ใ‚Œใพใ™ใ€‚TRCๅ‰ฏใ‚ปใƒณใ‚ฟใƒผ้•ทใฎๅชๆœจๆ•™ๆŽˆใ‚‚ๆญไน—ไบˆๅฎšใงใ™๏ผๅฐ้ขจใ‚’็›ดๆŽฅ่ฆณๆธฌใ™ใ‚‹ใ“ใจใงใ€ไบˆๆธฌ็ฒพๅบฆๅ‘ไธŠใซใคใชใŒใ‚‹่ฒด้‡ใชใƒ‡ใƒผใ‚ฟใŒๅพ—ใ‚‰ใ‚Œใ‚‹ใจๆœŸๅพ…ใ•ใ‚Œใฆใ„ใพใ™ใ€‚

**๐Ÿ” 75โ€‚โค๏ธ 171โ€‚๐Ÿ‘๏ธ 10.3Kโ€‚**

normal frost
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wew

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ig ill just wait for recon

atomic flint
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kinda insane tho

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just pointing out that neoguri is RIing at 26N

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too bad ragasa isnt getting any

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at least, unless if HKO has anything to say about it

atomic flint
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@normal frost sobbing

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surely they override it...right?

normal frost
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85

atomic flint
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25W NEOGURI 250920 1200 26.2N 155.0E WPAC 95 955

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well its an override

atomic flint
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LOL

normal frost
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yea no

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that thing is basically a wejj already idk about 95

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also it always amazes me when i look at satelite during these times

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neoguri is so much smaller than ragasa

atomic flint
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Something thatโ€™s interesting that I found out: Neoguri came from a TUTT, the same TUTT that killed Hurricane Kiko in the EPAC. The amount of ACE the TUTT ended, but then createdโ€ฆ. From a TUTT killing a Cat 4, to becoming a Cat 4. Credit to @charka123 for discovering this.

QRT: IPTCWCDirector
Typhoon #Neoguri is rapidly intensifying in the WPAC subtropics. Despite the latitude approaching the 27th degree, an impressive satellite structure with radial outflow is taking shape, and is now a major typhoon, and could peak as a Super Typhoon, one of few above 25ยฐN.

โ–ถ Play video
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@normal frost kinda interesting

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we live in a society where a typhoon north of 25N has a 20C eye

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is this actually gunning for STY

normal frost
atomic flint
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๐Ÿฅ€

atomic flint
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dual c4s right now

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genuine chance that we get dual c5 as well

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would be insane if that happened

atomic flint
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gg neoguri is entering ewrc

normal frost
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๐Ÿ’”

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so close

random flower
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dear lord...

normal frost
atomic flint
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24W RAGASA 250921 0600 18.3N 126.3E WPAC 140 922

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jma has 100kt, just shy of VTY

normal frost
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holy fk already

atomic flint
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145 from jtwc

normal frost
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thats concerning

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honestly it could go 150 too if it wanted to

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it still has a day

atomic flint
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anyway

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pagasa is forecasting 120kts koba

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which is...170 kts 1-min ๐Ÿ’€

normal frost
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wtf

ancient quarry
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๐Ÿ’€

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tis is big boi

normal frost
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meanwhile jma: still no STY for ragasa

atomic flint
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skipped 105 entirely

normal frost
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wow no way

atomic flint
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epac - TS Narda

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natl - Hurricane Gabrielle

normal frost
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nothing particularly exciting with those two for now

normal frost
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that's an ewrc alright

atomic flint
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SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 900 AM AST...1300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.6N 62.2W
ABOUT 195 MI...310 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB...28.26 INCHES```
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almost had 3 active majors at the same time

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too bad neoguri shat the bed

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c4 forecasted btw

normal frost
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bermuda's kinda fucked

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hopefully not too bad

atomic flint
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gonna steer clear of it for the most part thankfully

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whats interesting is that nhc wants this thing to reach the azores while still tropical

atomic flint
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nvm recon shows double eyewalls

normal frost
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gg ewrc moment

atomic flint
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too bad no recon anymore

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btw nhc has 120kts

normal frost
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??????

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I guess it really did take that personally god damn

atomic flint
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truly one of the eyes of all time

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anyway

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@normal frost

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narda is pulling a sneaky

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...NARDA BECOMES A HURRICANE...
...ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING EXPECTED...

SUMMARY OF 800 AM MST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION

LOCATION...15.8N 107.3W
ABOUT 295 MI...475 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES

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somehow still not forecast to become a major (??)

normal frost
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wew

normal frost
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ph is one thing

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south china again...

atomic flint
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no brother

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look at where the ph track leads it to

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right below

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metro manila

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๐Ÿ’€

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yknow whats Not A Fun Fact

normal frost
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oh right

atomic flint
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๐Ÿ’€

normal frost
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rammasun thinkge

atomic flint
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rammasun from Hell

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and ondoy (ketsana)

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both metro manila storms gg

atomic flint
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ragasa made lf in china

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this thing had 3 eyewalls btw, both jma and jtwc have c3

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...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR THE AZORES...
...GABRIELLE CONTINUES MOVING QUICKLY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTH ATLANTIC...

SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION

LOCATION...35.6N 51.5W
ABOUT 1360 MI...2190 KM W OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...41 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES

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gabrielle still barely major

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expected to hit azores as a hurricane

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narda is 90kts

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neoguri down to STS, expected to reintensify one last time though

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aaaand bulaloi is now STS

normal frost
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hmm

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thats quite a landfall

normal frost
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it has a lot of time still

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not the best conditions but not bad either

atomic flint
normal frost
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wtf

atomic flint
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we have humberto in natl

normal frost
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neat eye

normal frost
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its still trying huh

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isnt it at like 33N

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what is it cooking

normal frost
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I like how neoguri rebounded

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what is it cooking

atomic flint
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ikr

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let it fkin cook

normal frost
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bet

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there's also a small chance nine will interact with humberto so

atomic flint
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we'll see

normal frost
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what the fuck

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hello?????

atomic flint
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also 75 isnt real they have 95

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jma has major tho

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because ofc jma is doing better

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also bualoi doing some last min strengthening

normal frost
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estimated 80 landfall huh

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could be quite bad

atomic flint
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oh i didnt realize

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humberto reached c5 earlier

atomic flint
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neoguri:
jtwc - 110kts

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jma - 90kts koba

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anyway bualoi

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both agencies have low end typhoon

normal frost
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dude

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cooked af

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this is a first

normal frost
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despair

normal frost
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not fucking south china again ๐Ÿ˜ญ

atomic flint
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25W NEOGURI 250928 1200 38.0N 167.3E WPAC 105 953

atomic flint
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@normal frost

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HOW DOES THIS STORM STILL HAVE AN EYE AT 40 NORTH (in wpac)

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HOW ARE YOU REAL

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this storm is well out of tc waters btw

atomic flint
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26W BUALOI 250928 1200 17.6N 107.2E WPAC 85 967

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overridden to c2

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interesting

atomic flint
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jma - 80kt koba, 40.4N

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25W NEOGURI 250928 1800 40.3N 169.7E WPAC 95 961

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dang we were so close to a 40N major

normal frost
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looks like humberto gonna eat imelda up

atomic flint
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or is it the other way around

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cant tell atp

random flower
normal frost
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potentially soon yeah

atomic flint
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octave named

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epac

normal frost
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cool ass name

atomic flint
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indeed

atomic flint
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EP, 15, 2025100112, , BEST, 0, 114N, 1154W, 55, 994, TS, 50, NEQ, 20, 20, 0, 0, 1010, 140, 15, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, OCTAVE, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 027,

atomic flint
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matmo named

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imelda c2

random flower
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direct to the province i'm in

normal frost
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stay safe

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thankfully its not too strong before landfall

random flower
random flower
random flower
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i'm literally outside

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the winds are quite strong

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URGENT!!

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it intensified to a typhoon

atomic flint
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stay safe

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made landfall earlier

random flower
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it did at 9 am (?)

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dinapigue, isabela

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btw the power didn't went out here lmao

normal frost
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nio woke up

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interesting position tho

atomic flint
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55kts for 6z

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from jtwc

normal frost
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its kinda dry there

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rough for it

normal frost
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bruh its cooked

atomic flint
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its trying

atomic flint
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02A SHAKHTI 251004 1800 21.1N 62.5E IO 75 976

normal frost
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wew

atomic flint
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also matmo 80kts

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jma...lets not talk about their estimate

normal frost
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dude no fucking way

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jma WHAAAAT

atomic flint
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they have T3.5 btw

normal frost
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I know they have a history of lowballing but WHAT

atomic flint
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i kid u not

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๐Ÿ’€

normal frost
atomic flint
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anyway

normal frost
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HOW is it still TD

atomic flint
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wanna bet shakhti wont become a c1 for IMD

normal frost
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gonna bash my head against the wall

normal frost
atomic flint
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not 28W

normal frost
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oh wait a secc

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OMEGALUL ok i need sleep

atomic flint
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LMAO

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its ok im running on

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3 hours (generous estimate)

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btw 28w did get ci 2.0 from jma

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good chance it gets named rn

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next name?

normal frost
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thats still ๐Ÿ’€ for matmo tho

atomic flint
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Halong

atomic flint
atomic flint
normal frost
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tbh

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five billionth storm to take that path

atomic flint
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yep

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still tho

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hopefully gonna be fun to watch

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...until it crashes into land

normal frost
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tbh its quite well organized already

atomic flint
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yeah

normal frost
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we'll prob wake up to it named

atomic flint
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for sure

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if not rn then 0z

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also ngl

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isnt matmo basically just budget mujigae

normal frost
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we have mujigae at home

atomic flint
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indeed.

normal frost
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tbh

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matmo looks impressive as hell tho for a 80kt

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its probably more

normal frost
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it looks like a proper major on satelite

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ig it is not that cored just yet

atomic flint
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yeah

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think it has the time to major?

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tho i think its like 12h or less to landfall

normal frost
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honestly? not really

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ion'd out of major

atomic flint
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kekw

normal frost
atomic flint
normal frost
atomic flint
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macau raised T8 btw

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for this

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HKO didnt

normal frost
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my guess 90kt

atomic flint
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reasonable

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def gonna be a c2 landfall

normal frost
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south china this year...

atomic flint
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hahaha...

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๐Ÿ’€

normal frost
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south china stuck in a time loop

atomic flint
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its ok its

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gonna be the last south china storm

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...for at least a week

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28w is jp storm(?)

normal frost
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seems like it

atomic flint
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theres another signal looming but models want it to go taiwan

normal frost
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the shear seems to throw it that way too

atomic flint
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gotta say tho

normal frost
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at least for now

atomic flint
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recurving to japan?

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in october?

normal frost
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weather's fucked these recent years

atomic flint
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yeaaaaa

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oh one last thing

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octave is restrengthening

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has a slim window to go hurricane

normal frost
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I completely forgot about it

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lol

normal frost
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not counting matmo

atomic flint
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been a busy year

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also can i just empasize

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we are at 28W

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it is currently

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october 5

atomic flint
#
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME  TS 2522 HALONG (2522) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN  041800UTC 25.1N 143.8E FAIR
MOVE  W SLOWLY
PRES  1002HPA
MXWD  035KT
GUST  050KT
30KT  180NM NORTHEAST 120NM SOUTHWEST```
#

22nd named storm

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anyway with that i go sleep gn

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EP, 16, 2025100418, , BEST, 0, 154N, 1065W, 40, 1002, TS, 34, NEQ, 120, 0, 0, 90, 1008, 160, 60, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, PRISCILLA, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 028, TRANSITIONED, epB92025 to ep162025,

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actually one more named storm

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epac

normal frost
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gn

normal frost
normal frost
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we got a couple interesting ones this year at least

atomic flint
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yep

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neoguri my goat

normal frost
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neoguri def stands out the most LOL

atomic flint
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indeed

normal frost
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choked 40N major SuiPensivePeace

atomic flint
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๐Ÿฅ€

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good effort tho

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and i thought tokage was impressive enough

normal frost
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well we'll prob get 1-2 more in november lol

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30 inc?

atomic flint
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def possible

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i mean we're in a la nina

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season should be backloaded

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and thats quite the scary thought

normal frost
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wew

normal frost
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woah

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thats gonna be a really rough landfall

atomic flint
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yeaaa

normal frost
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๐Ÿฅ€

atomic flint
#

they went 70kts for 12z

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also priscilla 55kts

atomic flint
#

priscilla now a hurricane

normal frost
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poge

atomic flint
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75kts now

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shakhti is basically dead

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matmo is basically dead

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halong

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jtwc alr had ty on this since 6z

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jma still keeps 60kts for 12z

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octave weakened below hurricane

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natl has a 40/70

normal frost
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insane news on the tornado side of things today

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Enderlin (north dakota) tornado was upgraded to EF5 rating, making it the first tornado to get an EF5 rating since the Moore oklahoma tornado in may 20th 2013

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over 12 years drought

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@hollow zealot maybe you'll find this interesting too

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no more moore being the most recent

hollow zealot
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completely missed it

normal frost
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yeah

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it just updated today (or yesterday)

normal frost
normal frost
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tfw upgraded because of train

atomic flint
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ใ€ๆ˜Žๆ—ฅใƒปๆ˜ŽๅพŒๆ—ฅ้ฃ›ใณใพใ™๏ผใ€‘ๆ˜Žๆ—ฅ7ๆ—ฅ๏ฝžๆ˜ŽๅพŒๆ—ฅ8ๆ—ฅใซใ€ๅฐ้ขจ22ๅทใฎ่ˆช็ฉบๆฉŸ่ฆณๆธฌใ‚’่กŒใ†ใ“ใจใŒๆฑบใพใ‚Šใพใ—ใŸใ€‚ไปŠๅ›žใฏใƒ ใƒผใƒณใ‚ทใƒงใƒƒใƒˆใƒ—ใƒญใ‚ธใ‚งใ‚ฏใƒˆใฎไธ€็’ฐใงใ€ๅฐ้ขจๅˆถๅพกใซๅ‘ใ‘ใŸ้‡่ฆใช็ฌฌไธ€ๆญฉใจใ—ใฆใฎ่ฆณๆธฌใงใ™ใ€‚ๆœ€ๆ–ฐใฎ่ก›ๆ˜Ÿ็”ปๅƒใงใฏใ€ๅฐ้ขจใฎ็œผใŒ้–‹ใใ‹ใ‘ใฆใ„ใ‚‹ๆง˜ๅญใ€‚ๆ˜Žๆ—ฅๅˆๅพŒใ€ใ“ใฎ็œผใฎไธญใธ้ฃ›ใ‚“ใงใ„ใใพใ™ใ€‚

**๐Ÿ’ฌ 1โ€‚๐Ÿ” 135โ€‚โค๏ธ 370โ€‚๐Ÿ‘๏ธ 33.3Kโ€‚**

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oh?

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recon plans for halong

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oh wait its alr been conducted

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Damn.

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on the other side of the pacific

normal frost
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still decent tho

atomic flint
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oooh will get another recon tom

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...hope it doesnt ewrc?

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also priscilla c2

normal frost
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omg pretty

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look at it

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it's perfection

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I pray this be a fish storm and not for it to slam japan

atomic flint
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prayge

atomic flint
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priscilla 95kts

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major is now forecast

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also jerry formed

atomic flint
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they didnt go major

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๐Ÿฅ€

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now getting cooked

normal frost
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๐Ÿฅ€

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ion

atomic flint
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we have nakri btw

normal frost
atomic flint
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me when the shear

atomic flint
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28W HALONG 251008 1800 32.5N 139.4E WPAC 115 941

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thats early?

atomic flint
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nvm they did downgrade 18z to 110kts

normal frost
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wew

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110 still fast

atomic flint
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105 now

normal frost
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thats so messy lmao

normal frost
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DEATH

atomic flint
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new TD

atomic flint
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this exists

atomic flint
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...RAYMOND FORMS OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...

SUMMARY OF 1200 PM CST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION

LOCATION...16.1N 101.0W
ABOUT 115 MI...190 KM SSE OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
ABOUT 745 MI...1200 KM SE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES

normal frost
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pog

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so many systems close to each other in epac lmao

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although I think raymond will also be slop

normal frost
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interesting

atomic flint
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if not alr one

normal frost
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what the fuck

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I actually had to do a second take

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saw the uk and was like HUH

atomic flint
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LMAO

atomic flint
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nakri seems to finally be getting its act together

atomic flint
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nvm this storm fucking blows

normal frost
normal frost
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a bit messy?

normal frost
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it has like what 16hr left?

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the stream is kinda strong

atomic flint
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we'll see

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fwiw jma is forecasting typhoon 2 days from now

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jtwc forecasts typhoon late tomorrow

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with a peak of 75 kts on the 13th

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honestly this could easily get c2 if it plays its cards right

atomic flint
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damn jma now forecasts 75kts koba

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both jma and jtwc are at 60kts

normal frost
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cooked

atomic flint
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TS Lorenzo

normal frost
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sloppa again?

atomic flint
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seems like it

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jerry busted hard lmfao

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we'll see if this one fares any better

atomic flint
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zodw 4

normal frost
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something form pls

tribal arch
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๐Ÿ’€

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i do not want any rn

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at least in west Pacific

normal frost
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unfortunately smth will probably form in the next 48h lol

tribal arch
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its october

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its like clockwork

atomic flint
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RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME  TS 2524 FENGSHEN (2524) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN  171800UTC 12.9N 127.4E FAIR
MOVE  W 13KT
PRES  1000HPA
MXWD  035KT
GUST  050KT
30KT  120NM```
normal frost
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damn ok

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luzon eating more rain gg

atomic flint
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04S FOUR 251018 0000 7.7S 74.2E SHEM 35 1004

normal frost
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wher name

atomic flint
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none yet

normal frost
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fengshen's predicted path is interesting to say the least

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me when jet stream is gone

atomic flint
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POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 8.5 S / 70.8 E
(EIGHT    DECIMAL FIVE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY    DECIMAL EIGHT   DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 13 KT```
atomic flint
normal frost
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?

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wtf is it doing there

atomic flint
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me when a low makes landfall at Fucking Perth of all places

atomic flint
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in other news

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fengshen is

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ahahaha

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๐Ÿณ

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(its not cooking its just scrambled eggs)

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jtwc has 55kts on chenge

normal frost
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haha...

atomic flint
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90/90 in natl

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fengshen is 50kts...somehow

atomic flint
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...THE 13TH TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN SEA...
...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF HAITI...

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION

LOCATION...14.3N 71.7W
ABOUT 300 MI...480 KM S OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES

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Melissa

normal frost
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hmmm

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ngl seems like a stallable spot

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there's like no shear there

atomic flint
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cma has typhoon for fengshen

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apparently obs supports it

normal frost
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looks weird

normal frost
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man all slops

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although we could potentially see melissa do smth here

atomic flint
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pagasa only one that went TS rip

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its now Dead

normal frost
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pien

atomic flint
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18E

normal frost
atomic flint
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EP, 18, 2025102506, , BEST, 0, 132N, 1172W, 35, 1006, TS, 34, NEQ, 50, 20, 0, 50, 1011, 150, 50, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, SONIA, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 032,

normal frost
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sleepge

normal frost
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oh what the fuck

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the stalling is going to make it terrible for jamaica

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we might see a record breaking flood

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which is...not good

atomic flint
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yeah.

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already a major btw

normal frost
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jesus

atomic flint
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also this is funny

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Sonia is experiencing about 10-15 kt of southerly vertical wind shear while over sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) of about 27C. The shear and SSTs should remain about the same for the next 12-24 h, but southerly shear is forecast to increase further after that time while SSTs begin to gradually decrease. By 60 hours, shear should be stronger than 20 kt while SSTs fall below 26C. Melissa will also reach a drier airmass after 60 h. The NHC forecast will show slight strengthening over the next 24 h while Sonia remains over lukewarm SSTs and moderate shear. Thereafter, gradual weakening is expected, and Melissa should lose its convection and become a remnant low by day 3.

atomic flint
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anyway

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we have cyclone montha

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NEAR 11.6N / 86.2E (.) INTENSITY T2.5 (.) ASSTD SCT TO BKN LOW/MED CLOUDS WITH EMBDD
INT TO V INT CONVTN OVER SOUTH ADJ CENTRAL BAY BET LAT 5.0N TO 18.0N LONG 80.0E TO
93.0E AND ANDAMAN & NICOBAR ILS (MINIMUM CTT MINUS 70-90 DEG CEL) (.)```
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only the 2nd named storm of NIO season

normal frost
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yippee

normal frost
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kinda a fucked run its doing

atomic flint
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not melissa

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LOL

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unfortunately melissa has been maintaining/strengthening still

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though not for long, looks to be going into an ewrc

normal frost
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oh wait what the fuck LMAO

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i am grade A stupid

atomic flint
atomic flint
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130/924 melissa

normal frost
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fast track to being c5

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it definitely has the time to

atomic flint
atomic flint
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c5.

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...NOAA AND AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS INVESTIGATING
CATEGORY 5 MELISSA...
...DESTRUCTIVE WINDS AND STORM SURGE AND CATASTROPHIC FLOODING WILL
WORSEN ON JAMAICA THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT...

SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION

LOCATION...16.4N 78.0W
ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM SW OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 320 MI...515 KM SW OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...913 MB...26.96 INCHES

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id just like to mention

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this is the 3rd C5 of 2025 natl

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the only season ik with higher is...2005 lmfao

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impressive for a season thats been mostly slop outside of 5 storms

normal frost
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holy fuck thats dry LOL

atomic flint
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yeah

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top 3 driest ever

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also 145kts 908mb

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prolly quite conservative too

normal frost
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what the hell

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155??

atomic flint
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...CATEGORY 5 MELISSA NOW MOVING NORTHWESTWARD WHILE WARNINGS
ARE ISSUED FOR THE BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS...
...CATASTROPHIC AND LIFE-THREATENING WINDS, FLOODING, AND STORM
SURGE EXPECTED ON JAMAICA TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY...

SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION

LOCATION...16.7N 78.4W
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM SW OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 320 MI...515 KM SW OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...175 MPH...280 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...906 MB...26.76 INCHES

atomic flint
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also this beat meranti's driest eye record earlier

atomic flint
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150/909

tribal arch
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das crazy

atomic flint
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goddamn

normal frost
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it's so pretty in there man

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I love how you can actually see the clouds rotating

atomic flint
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901mb...

atomic flint
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its approaching.

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this has been C5 for...24 hours

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this is gonna slam jamaica at or near peak

normal frost
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aieeeeee

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if this storm makes landfall as is

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it would be the first recorded category 5 landfall on jamaica

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I don't think anyone is prepared for that and it's really bad

atomic flint
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yeah

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if theres any silver lining it seems to be missing the most populated parts of it

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but like

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thats still Bad.

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also no recons are up atm

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both recons scheduled for rn are running late

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i believe one of them is cuz replacing parts

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in other news

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fat fuck

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gg both recons are under repair

normal frost
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dude its literally not even rotating

normal frost
atomic flint
normal frost
normal frost
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monka

atomic flint
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also because beating meranti wasnt enough

normal frost
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dry ass

atomic flint
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idt this is even its driest

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fucking freak storm man

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whats a wpac storm doing in the natl

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btw if this was in wpac

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well

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considering lack of recon, well let me just say that ADT hit T8.5 earlier ๐Ÿ’€ ๐Ÿ’€ ๐Ÿ’€ ๐Ÿ’€ ๐Ÿ’€

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so like

normal frost
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holy fuck

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yea this is the first 8.5

atomic flint
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nah

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some storms have definitely gotten it before

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but idk which

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probably insert wpac c5 #7284829

normal frost
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I mean in natl

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wpac 100% lol

atomic flint
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but like

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delta is Funny

normal frost
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delta...

atomic flint
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HOLY SHIT

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i just noticed

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160/892?????

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@normal frost @normal frost @normal frost @normal frost @normal frost

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this is landfalling soon.

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...MELISSA'S EYE APPROACHING THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF JAMAICA...
...STAY IN YOUR SHELTER...
...1200 PM EDT POSITION UPDATE...

THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION! Do
not leave your shelter as the eye passes over, as winds will
quickly, and rapidly increase on the other side of the eye.
Residents should remain in place through the passage of these
life-threatening conditions. To protect yourself from wind, the
best thing you can do is put as many walls as possible between you
and the outside. An interior room without windows, ideally one where
you can also avoid falling trees, is the safest place you can be in
a building. You can cover yourself with a mattress and wear a
helmet for added protection.

The next update will be provided at 100 PM EDT (1700 UTC), or as
needed for landfall.

SUMMARY OF 1200 PM EDT...1600 UTC...INFORMATION

LOCATION...18.0N 78.0W
ABOUT 30 MI...55 KM SE OF NEGRIL JAMAICA
ABOUT 230 MI...375 KM SW OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...185 MPH...295 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...892 MB...26.34 INCHES

normal frost
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what the wejj

atomic flint
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horrifying wejj

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yknow when was the last time a storm made landfall as an 892

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fucking

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1935 labor day

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๐Ÿ’€

atomic flint
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this was what last recon experienced btw @normal frost

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that plane is probably gonna be out of commission for a while

normal frost
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what the fuck

atomic flint
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...CATEGORY 5 MELISSA MAKES LANDFALL IN JAMAICA...
...ONE OF THE MOST POWERFUL HURRICANE LANDFALLS ON RECORD IN THE
ATLANTIC BASIN...

Melissa has made landfall in southwestern Jamaica near New Hope with
estimated maximum sustained winds of 185 mph (295 km/h) and an
estimated minimum central pressure of 892 mb (26.34 inches).

THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION! Do
not leave your shelter as the eye passes over, as winds will
quickly, and rapidly increase on the other side of the eye.
Residents should remain in place through the passage of these
life-threatening conditions. To protect yourself from wind, the
best thing you can do is put as many walls as possible between you
and the outside. An interior room without windows, ideally one where
you can also avoid falling trees, is the safest place you can be in
a building. You can cover yourself with a mattress and wear a
helmet for added protection.

The next position update will be provided with the intermediate
advisory at 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC).

SUMMARY OF 100 PM EDT...1700 UTC...INFORMATION

LOCATION...18.1N 78.0W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM SE OF NEGRIL JAMAICA
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM S OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...185 MPH...295 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...892 MB...26.34 INCHES

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landfall.

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160/892

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tied with labor day.

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90 year record

normal frost
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I pray for the people in jamaica

atomic flint
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made landfall in cuba earlier at 105kts

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it managed to restrengthen to 115kts before that

normal frost
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wth

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restrengthening even

atomic flint
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well

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ยฏ_(ใƒ„)_/ยฏ

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i wasn't following it after jamaica

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but i think recon might not support c4?

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that said

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it did clear out an eye before lf

atomic flint
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restrengthening

normal frost
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again...

normal frost
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what the fuck

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its basically disintegrated at this point

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prob gonna become SS before evaporating

atomic flint
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would be funny if it did

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either way still gonna be affecting bermuda with hurricane force winds

atomic flint
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melissa went ex earlier

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u will not be missed

normal frost
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gg

normal frost
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what the hell

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PH track storms do be like that ig

tribal arch
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its that time of the year agane

atomic flint
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ph is one thing

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but look at the cone

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100kts in scs...headed straight for central vietnam ๐Ÿ’€

normal frost
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that's something alright

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maybe it will be Rai at home and turn away idk

atomic flint
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named earlier

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kalmaegi

atomic flint
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TROPICAL CYCLONE BULLETIN NR. 2
๏ธ€๏ธ€Severe Tropical Storm #TinoPH (KALMAEGI)
๏ธ€๏ธ€Issued at 5:00 PM, 02 November 2025
๏ธ€๏ธ€Valid for broadcast until the next bulletin at 11:00 PM today.
๏ธ€๏ธ€
๏ธ€๏ธ€โ€œTINOโ€ INTENSIFIES INTO A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM WHILE OVER THE PHILIPPINE SEA
๏ธ€๏ธ€
๏ธ€๏ธ€Link: tinyurl.com/TCB-TinoPH

**๐Ÿ’ฌ 1โ€‚๐Ÿ” 40โ€‚โค๏ธ 85โ€‚๐Ÿ‘๏ธ 17.0Kโ€‚**

normal frost
#

wew

atomic flint
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31W KALMAEGI 251103 0000 10.5N 128.9E WPAC 70 985

normal frost
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hoeh

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thats a quick eyewall

tribal arch
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signal No.2 here

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โœŒ๏ธ

atomic flint
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stay safe

atomic flint
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pagasa has sty forecast for their first cone of the next storm

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๐Ÿฅฒ

tribal arch
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fan fucking tastic

normal frost
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ah fuck

normal frost
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easily doable

normal frost
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the ๐Ÿ‘๏ธ is here

atomic flint
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WTPQ51 RJTD 051800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2526 FUNG-WONG (2526) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 051800UTC 10.2N 142.1E FAIR
MOVE NNW 11KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT

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its here.

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also damn

normal frost
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blob

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actually that storm might impact me too

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even if thailand doesnt get hit by storms

atomic flint
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maybe remnants yeah

atomic flint
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bro is big

normal frost
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what the fuck dude

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thats way bigger than i thought

atomic flint
#

anyway kalmaegi made landfall

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stay safe ๐Ÿ™

atomic flint
normal frost
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my god what a fat fuck fungwong

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it is actually gonna affect all of the philippines

tribal arch
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man

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thats a big fuck off storm man ๐Ÿ˜ญ๐Ÿ˜ญ๐Ÿ˜ญ

atomic flint
#

32W FUNG-WONG 251107 1200 11.9N 135.6E WPAC 65 983

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the chonker is chonking

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(please prepare if you need to)

normal frost
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thats a big motherfucker

willow tendon
#

ooh meteorology thread

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poggers

normal frost
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welcome welcome

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we are in need of more weather nerds

random flower
#

another hell week, another eyewall witnessing

willow tendon
random flower
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hope i can handle those winds

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i'm gonna be outside and document the battering if possible

atomic flint
atomic flint
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well dont do that when the typhoon is there

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i mean

normal frost
#

stay safe everyone

normal frost
random flower
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surely i won't be pulled away by the wind

normal frost
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bro a chaser

atomic flint
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damn

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stay safe

willow tendon
random flower
random flower
tribal arch
#

๐Ÿฅ€๐Ÿฅ€๐Ÿฅ€

atomic flint
#

metro manila is now alert level charlie iirc

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๐Ÿฅ€

willow tendon
normal frost
#

that eye is crazy

tribal arch
#

its massive

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its as big as NCR

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or bigger