but idk maybe the president has more responsibility or something
#politics
elder portal
I would love a way to have a "is this really Trump/Biden?" thing on my dashboard
iunno how to do that without getting people involved to muck up my beautiful robot data
mystic ermine
I think trump heavily caters towards people like truckers and heavy machinery type stuff, people who are generally more inclined to be getting home or park super late, etc
oak cloak
yeah that would be really hard
mystic ermine
So, round the clock coverage is more important for trump to try and hit his base
elder portal
whole point of my dashboard is that it's unbiased
elder portal
or as unbiased as possible
oak cloak
from NYT:
The likeliest outcome by far in Arizona is that the remaining ballots are good enough for Biden. But I don't think we can be 100% confident until we've seen some of them.
similar for NV
foggy fern
Yeah Trump doesn't get a lot of sleep
Understandable, I don't know I could sleep if I took that much adderall and I actually have ADHD
oak cloak
MI is nearly done counting, margin has narrowed but biden will likely still hold a lead
so yeah could call it soon
sweet canyon
Still looks like 40K or so?
oak cloak
oh yes, my tired eyes misread the numbers
yeah so the gap hasn't changed with the count going from 94% to 98%
foggy fern
Now Arizona is saying they'll have updates at 7pm after saying before it wouldn't be until tomorrow?
brisk cradle
Yikes. Gary Peters needs to pull off a win, fast. He's down versus John James.
This is a Democratic Pyrrhic victory
Biden is president but it seems they lost ground in Congress!
elder portal
I do enjoy myself a nice, purple country
though we do really need the blue right now to offset the last decade of red
sweet canyon
MI just went to 99%
fast flame
Which isn’t how it works
oak cloak
why do you keep bringing up the idea of stopping the counting of votes
why do you want to stop counting votes so much
fast flame
Actually they lose the presidency
elder portal
You always count every vote
oak cloak
if you believe that - which you don't seem to understand what's really going on, but let's go ahead anyways, then your argument shouldn't be "you stop counting the votes", it should be "the race is over already, including all of the votes left to be counted"
fast flame
If there was any thought that the republicans might take the house, the media would be talking about nothing but that.
elder portal
stopping the count of votes would be the most blatant form of voter fraud
thought you were against voter fraud
oak cloak
you're ignoring the actual data of the voting count trends
you ARE saying "the GOP looks to have won if you stop counting the votes"
protip: stop saying that
oak cloak
when it comes to voter suppression both sides is not a true argument
republicans want as few votes as possible and they want it to be as difficult as possible to vote across the board
democrats wants as many votes as possible and they want voting to be as easy as possible
elder portal
I try to avoid saying "Republicans have been doing bad!" because that tends to turn off Repub-leaning voters
they both suck
oak cloak
what laws the parties vote for matters
elder portal
Republicans have historically done more for voter suppression than Democrats, though
oak cloak
basket your extrapolation is extremely flawed
elder portal
the whole USPS/voting machines thing earlier this year was a fucking mess
oak cloak
since you extrapolate the ratio of votes will remain the same, but that's just now how the later votes statistically work
elder portal
it's mostly stopped because they got slapped around a bit and told no
sweet canyon
They really going to make us wait on that 99%
elder portal
Grand Rapids and Detroit still haven't been counted?
fucking hell
that's gonna go blue quick
oak cloak
I think detroit votes are coming in but not complete
fast flame
Ok. When we say “there are still lots of votes to be counted” it’s different on house races. There are often considerably smaller amounts of votes meaning that 10 percent can change the course of the race.
oak cloak
and yes it'll go very blue
elder portal
MI is definitely won
oak cloak
house races can vary dramatically purely based on which precincts have reported in
larger precincts take longer to count
fast flame
^^
elder portal
again, major cities in PA still missing, though a lot of rural is as well
fast flame
With such a drastically different size of constituency, the house races can often be dramatically changed in the last 10-15%
elder portal
hmm.. PA's a bit harder, but my prediction is democrat
just maps
you can zoom into states
get breakdowns by county
mine's the Guardian
seems to be similar to Google
I think a lot of maps do it
yeah
it's going to be huge
we'll see, but I think they're safely democrat this year
but yeah, we'll see
mhm
again, the longer this goes on the more blue you'll see
for those reasons
Atlana hasn't been counted yet, either
still likely red, but also closer than it ever should have been
Georgia is at 95%
the remaining 5% is in Atlanta
yyyep
oh, yeah, 96.1%
we all knew it was red, but that's damned close
fast flame
georgia might still go blue
elder portal
it's pretty unlikely
but the fact that it's this goddamned close
again, volumes
not sure what's holding them up there
oh, 94% estimated
hmm, maybe, but again seems unlikely
think it's also still red
but damn that's close
all these deep red states almost going blue
foggy fern
Aikar was the outstanding vote in NC was still likely to have more Democrats than Republicans last time he talked about it
PA isn't enough for Trump and if Biden gets NV he doesn't need it
elder portal
https://i.imgur.com/kqI2caR.png
that said, Trump could still win
fast flame
there are still 250k votes left in GA, mostly all in blue areas. still very much a possibility
foggy fern
I dunno, I assume from Trump's actions he thinks MI is done
elder portal
it's just much smaller chance
foggy fern
That 10 in 100 was before any states were called
elder portal
iirc that's after, but let me check
foggy fern
If you fill in the map with the races AP has called this is what you get https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-biden-election-map/#OH:1,OR:0,WA:0,ID:1,WY:1,UT:1,CO:0,NM:0,OK:1,KS:1,NE:1,SD:1,ND:1,MO:1,AR:1,LA:1,MS:1,AL:1,TN:1,KY:1,IN:1,WV:1,SC:1,VA:0,MD:0,NJ:0,DE:0,NY:0,VT:0,NH:0,MA:0,CT:0,DC:0,RI:0,IL:0,HI:0,MT:1,IA:1,FL:1,MN:0,TX:1,N2:0,N3:1,N1:1,ME:0,M1:0,AZ:0,CA:0,M2:1,WI:0
foggy fern
3 in 100 chance for Trump
fast flame
no the 538 prediction was locked in yesterday, it's not updating anymore
drifting arch
this race is so close it's wrecking me
but then again im not following like you guys are
elder portal
this affects my next four years
opaque prairie
you made a good choice to not follow this cloesly
opaque prairie
i mean yeah this is the america i have to live in
elder portal
I'm following
drifting arch
i agree, it affects mine too. but, i also have school i need to worry about and an exam in less than an hour
so, i have to pick one to follow closely
elder portal
sadly I don't have anything to distract me from school until Friday
elder portal
anything from school to distract me*
opaque prairie
good luck simple
opaque prairie
we will probably break a lot higher than 138 as votes continue to come in, Ny and Ca both have a couple mill left in them
foggy fern
143m total is my guess
opaque prairie
im pegging it around 145m
foggy fern
240m eligible to vote, not sure how many were registered
So it's still not a great look, Iowa gets like 70% turnout
elder portal
who needs an electoral process, anyway?
near glen
"Election challengers"
elder portal
just stop counting and give it over to Putin
near glen
wat
near glen
fascists I guess
fast flame
those people arent american anymore if that's what they believe is necessary
elder portal
they're misinformed and/or uninformed, mostly
the suspense is killing me
NV or MI go blue, it's essentially over. they both do, it IS over.
foggy fern
I think MI is over
near glen
I wonder what will happen then
elder portal
even if PA goes red, it's over
foggy fern
All of the places with votes left to count are already blue and they're counting absentee ballots
So they'll probably go more blue when they finish
elder portal
my prediction: it'll be vote-recounting and tactics to stall for time and/or invalidate as many democrat votes as possible
stable sable
does this mean that biden will most likely win
elder portal
97/100 chance
fast flame
numbers say yes
elder portal
NV and MI are going blue, and it seems it'll stay that way. If they both do, it's over
fast flame
but that doesnt take any attempts to steal it into account
elder portal
yeah
foggy fern
If you give Biden MI 538 drops Trump from 3% to 2% chance
He only needs one more state after that and NV is likely, PA is probably, and GA is possible
NC I think is going to stay Trump
fast flame
biden doesnt need it
elder portal
I'm predicting Trump will pull every tactic he reasonably can to ensure he wins, even if the votes say Biden
he already has
fast flame
or georgia for that matter
elder portal
even some fairly-unreasonabe tactics
fast flame
it would just be nice to win those 2 as a kick in the balls for the gop
upper steppe
https://twitter.com/annalise_frank/status/1324079313176678402
imagine being one of these people
@small root lmao! Idiots. Idiots everywhere. Smh 4 years ago it was "not my president" rofl
foggy fern
It was "not my president" in front of the White House, not inside and around the place they're counting votes
elder portal
gotta not feel like a loser. Feeling like a loser feels bad.
yeah, there's definitely a stark difference between "lost the popular vote, this system sucks" and "let's just not count legal ballots"
upper steppe
Nah, bro. You can't justify one side or the other. They're both wrong and idiotic. Snowflake generation smfh
foggy fern
With the popular vote, Bush v Gore, and the economy tanking Bush probably would have been just as hated if 9/11 didn't happen
Instead it took us until his second term to really work up the hate
upper steppe
the electoral college is bullshit. people should vote, not land
@small root then california alone would decide our fate.
stable sable
if we took away the electoral college democrats would win every time
elder portal
so the question now mostly becomes, "what can we do to start undoing some of the damage?"
that's a tall order
stable sable
this at least has the other half of the population accounted for
upper steppe
isn't that how things generally work
@small root not at all
foggy fern
California doesn't have a majority of the population of the US and like 40% of them vote Republican
opaque prairie
if California has a majority of the population, then it should decide
but oh wait, it doesnt
stable sable
electoral college is shit and i agree
elder portal
what about the Iran weapons agreement? Can we get back into that, as well? Need those relations re-built.
woo boy
opaque prairie
yeah we can in theory egg, but trust is broken ya know
elder portal
lotta work to be done
foggy fern
Oh yeah, we're officially out of the Paris Climate Accord today
elder portal
yeah
stable sable
but popular vote would mean that republicans would NEVER be represented and that one party system would hurt democracy
elder portal
fack, can we get back into it?
upper steppe
California doesn't have a majority of the population of the US and like 40% of them vote Republican
@foggy fern it was a figure of speech. Without the EC the top 5 cities would decide the fate. Fuck the other 99%
foggy fern
We can cancel leaving the WHO but that one is done
They aren't the other 99% though otherwise they'd decide 😛
opaque prairie
no it wouldnt. the top 100cities in the us dont even make up 100million people
elder portal
@feral blade https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G3wLQz-LgrM
foggy fern
And cities also aren't 100% Democrat either, they range from like 80% to 50%
elder portal
watch, iz good
opaque prairie
NY votes as of rn are 55% and 45%, despite having the largest city in the country
elder portal
4 minutes, 43 seconds
opaque prairie
same in ny
foggy fern
Everywhere should use a jungle primary and ranked choice voting too
elder portal
nobody is really represented well, currently
foggy fern
Let's just combine all the best voting ideas that we've seen Americans will accept
elder portal
four to six states get pandered to, and the rest of the US suffers
that's how the EC works
foggy fern
I don't think we can get them on board for the Condorcet system 😄
elder portal
and that's just the tip of it
stable sable
if ec was abolished democrats would almost always win
elder portal
there's also the whole "faithless electors" pill
elder portal
that's not how the math works out
stable sable
because of higher democrat population
foggy fern
Condorcet voting is basically you numbering candidates in order of preference and then that being used to simulate 1v1 matchups of every candidate against every other candidate and tell you who won the most matchups
elder portal
the math says you're wrong in that it would be democrat-controlled
science and math gives zero fucks about politics
stable sable
im not against it
a change would be huge, and i think it wouldnt work well with our 2 party system
im not even republican
foggy fern
And if that's not actually what Condorcet voting is that just shows you how complicated it is, I couldn't even remember it correctly 😛
upper steppe
why are you against everyone having an equal say in politics
@small root 100% majority rule isn't equal say.. it's mob mentality rule
foggy fern
But it is apparently the fairest way to do elections
elder portal
@upper steppe I don't expect you to be instantly convinced, it requires a bit of background knowledge, but knowing that removing the EC wouldn't fuck republicans is a good start
because it wouldn't
upper steppe
First, don't assume I'm republican. I'm not
elder portal
I never did 😛
upper steppe
Then why use that in your argument?
foggy fern
Minority rule is the norm in history so it's more acceptable
elder portal
that was your issue earlier, is that cities would have a larger say. Cities are largely democratic
the math refutes that claim
stable sable
why was ec used in the first place tho
elder portal
I'm sure they had multi-million dollar industries and cities with millions of people in 1788
upper steppe
Mob mentality rule, mini
elder portal
basically, nobody wants to lose
stable sable
yeah ec isnt preventing that lol
elder portal
nobody likes feeling like a loser, and people will do quite a lot when given the option to do so to ensure they win
Trump has given a lot of options on how his supporters can feel like winners
upper steppe
@autumn lotus someone should tell Trump
@foggy fern pretty sure it was biden that got up on stage last night trying to win over more votes after the voting was over ...
elder portal
none good
we have an electoral college because the founding fathers did not trust the common man (non-land-owning man) to vote
it's outdated
it doesn't serve the purpose it was designed for
it hurts democracy
and voter faith
it's a cist
upper steppe
Fun fact: were not a fucking democracy... This is a democratic republic
Dems seem to have forgotten that
near glen
to me thats the same tho?
elder portal
fun fact: still doesn't invalidate that the EC doesn't work at all
foggy fern
Jefferson also thought we should rewrite the Constitution every 20-40 years, look at how that turned out
opal moat
'murica
near glen
like I said, germany is a republic too
so is swiss, which is always named as a really direct democracy
elder portal
the EC also hurts a democratic republic
opaque prairie
republic just means we elect senators to represent us and make laws instead of voting directly, not that the electoral college is god or some shit
opal moat
it's called switzerland Martin
elder portal
there, ya happy?
near glen
it's called switzerland Martin
@opal moat I refused to call them a "land" 😛
opal moat
good thing the constitution has a method for amending it so no need to rewrite the whole thing
wasn't the constitution meant to be rewritten every few years?
switzercity then
mystic ermine
no
opal moat
😛
near glen
to be updated
foggy fern
Because they had no delusion that they had created some perfect set in stone system
elder portal
it's almost like it was designed full of compromises to try to hold together a newly-founded country that was falling apart
and they knew it
opal moat
Go Compromistitution!
foggy fern
To the point that Jefferson thought rather than rewriting the whole thing via amendments we should just sit down and rethink the whole thing
foggy fern
Yeah, thanks McConnell
foggy fern
Totally spelled his name wrong
upper steppe
at least they knew how to compromise back in the day
@autumn lotus it saddens me that people take this shit so far as to literally fight each other in the streets now days
elder portal
you got it right
fast flame
CNN calls michigan for Biden
foggy fern
The House has shown a willingness to compromise, the Senate hasn't even tried to push their own agenda or meet in the middle
They just don't do anything
elder portal
there was one that was fought over in about 2010 over pizza being classified as a vegetable
that was fun
fast flame
it would be to their benefit to have passed the most recent stimulus bill, but mcconnell didnt like it
elder portal
pizza isn't related, but the thought popped into my head
fast flame
why didnt it get passed then?
elder portal
sigh
upper steppe
Pretty sure it was the Dems that stonewalled the stimulus..
fast flame
uuuuuuhhhh
elder portal
nope, that was also Republicans on that
fast flame
pretty sure it sat on mcconnells desk for 3 months but sure
elder portal
democrats did stall quite a few things, but stimulus and senate seats weren't them
that was all McConnell
if you want to attribute McConnell to all republicans, then sure
but that was all on him
foggy fern
The House went from $3t to ~$2t cutting out things they wanted in the stimulus, the Senate couldn't even agree on $600b (they failed to pass it before even bring it to the House to consider) and refused the $1t and $2t options the House and Trump Administration came up with
fast flame
the only notable thing ive seen the dems stall recently was the SCOTUS nom and that was because it was blatantly hypocritcal to a precedent from 2016
foggy fern
And the Senate doesn't even try to pass their own bills, they just do nothing but appoint judges
elder portal
fucking McConnell, basically, is what it all boils down to
foggy fern
They're at least put in some effort on a budget to avoid a shutdown but just barely
I'd put some consideration in to that if the Senate did literally anything legislatively
elder portal
are we forgetting about the longest shutdown we've seen in a very long time?
bars were offering free food to fed employees
that was bad
foggy fern
Not all of them, the neocons I disagreed with but you could still come to the table with them
The Contract with America folks and the Tea Party are a shitshow though
elder portal
there's a lot of ignorance and misinformation fueling ignorance
which makes for a fun debate
depending on your definition of fun
upper steppe
Fun? You mean trolley? Because that what it seems like from my perspective. Hard to tell the difference in text chat, but it's either pure ignorance or trolling coming from the trump haters
foggy fern
The Contract with America folks are the ones that started putting in the changes that broke the Congress to the point it is today
elder portal
from my perspective, it's purely ignorance and hate coming from Trump supporters
¯_(ツ)_/¯
foggy fern
They changed the schedules to ensure their members wouldn't live in DC or hang out with Democrats after work
elder portal
redmapping didn't help at all
near glen
uuh MI is called
near glen
by nbc
opaque prairie
ap hasnt called it yet
foggy fern
They didn't stick to the not living in DC part but kept the not hanging out with Democrats
That was the House starting in the 90s
The Tea Party basically did the same thing to the Senate
opaque prairie
i dont see how people can justify half the shit trump does like, its just absurd to me
upper steppe
what it feels like to me is people against trump just try to selectively believe certain things and ignore other totally valid facts
@autumn lotus first it was the wall, then it was his hair, then they said his skin is orange... Now he's soley to blame for covid-19 lmao... There's no winning with them
foggy fern
Although the bleedover from the House attitudes was getting it there eventually anyway
elder portal
I'll wait 'till AP calls it to update my own map, but it seems like MI goes blue
the wall is fucking dumb
on so many levels
opal moat
I'll just repeat what I said earlier
elder portal
it's hard to even find a starting point as to why it's so dumb
opaque prairie
i would hate the dude outside of politics lol
opal moat
I don't understand why you could vote for someone who is racist, sexist, transphobic, literally put children in camps and doesn't pay taxes just because he is "unfiltered", for me that means you are probably a white cis male who doesn't care about people and generally have no issues with minorities in your country having a bad time
near glen
its the wall, its the hate, its the covid, its so much
opaque prairie
he it legitimately a bad person ignoring all the political shit
mystic ermine
Obama put the children in cages, taxes has been disputed iirc as apparently he pays in advance or something
opaque prairie
idgaf about what the media says, this man has lived his life ostracizing women, making and publicizing racist claims and generally being a dickhead
elder portal
@autumn lotus except that's not how misinformation works
you convince people those things aren't true, they vote for you
opaque prairie
"too far left"
opal moat
"we are not mini europe" this is the issue, good job 😄
elder portal
we probably should strive to be mini-EU, honestly
they got their shit together. Mostly.
mystic ermine
Trumps also supported the LGBT community for years, and his comments while questionable, I'm not really sure they're really -ist
opal moat
thats just wrong
opaque prairie
we are one of if not the only major 1st world country without universal healthcare, have the worst health and literacy rates of most if all 1st world countries
that is not too far to the left.
elder portal
oh, yes the vocal minority. Can't forget about the big bad far left
opaque prairie
1950s were more left than bernie sanders and you have the audacity to say too far left
elder portal
or really the big bad far right
mystic ermine
meanwhile, there are dozens of videos online where biden is clearly making people feel uncomfortable with his actions, and has heavily opposed same sex marragies as far back as I can see, I'm guessing that he's flipped, but 🤷♂️
elder portal
although fucking hell, some extremists going out to shoot people is no bueno
opal moat
he banned trans people from the military, allowed doctors to refuse trans patients solely because they are trans
opaque prairie
then he wouldnt have banned them from the military
it would have become a disqualifier on the medical exam
mystic ermine
I disagree with the ban, but, I can see caveated reasons for it
mystic ermine
Does diabetes get you excluded from the military?
elder portal
"oh, you want to be a man? Sorry, you're out"
opal moat
elder portal
plus yes, the denial of any medical treatments as well
that's fun
we have problems, as a country
we should be working on being more inclusive
but we're stuck building walls
opal moat
the thing is, being trans is not inherently a medical condition
mystic ermine
gender dysphoria is a medical condition?
opal moat
you can take hormones, but you don't have to
elder portal
on many factors
upper steppe
Having flat feet disqualifies you from the military, too
mystic ermine
The issue with conditions which require constant treatment is, "what if the supply line is disrupted?"
I disagree with the ban entirely, but, as I said, I can see there being some arguments for it
opal moat
what the fuck is there a risk of allowing trans people
opaque prairie
i mean honestly if its not worth the risk of trans people, why should be even bother having women in the military? like wtf is this argument
elder portal
alright, well fuck inclusiveness then. Fuck trans rights, fuck Mexicans, and fuck any sense of democratic republics or whatever. Let's juts make Trump our ruler forever.
opal moat
again, not every trans person takes hormones
sweet canyon
Anything new from an hour ago?
opaque prairie
like its not a defensible position
mystic ermine
- Suicide risk is increased
- Requirement for medication in all conditions, if you're using them, is a massive concern, especially in regards to where mental health is a concern
fast flame
NYT calls MI for biden as well
oak cloak
The "it's hard so don't try" argument is a common republican tactic
mystic ermine
as I said, I disagree with the ban
But, I can see potential reasons as to why they might feel inclined to do that in a high risk/stress environment
elder portal
maybe you treat everyone equally and screen everyone for the same things
regardless of gender
near glen
abc called MI
mystic ermine
gender isn't the exact concern
elder portal
it's a potential solution
opal moat
again, not every trans person does.
elder portal
well, outright banning people because they want something different shouldn't preclude them from doing what anyone else can
I mixed sentences
got distracted
map updated
idea is there
mystic ermine
Yea, I disagree with the outright ban, but there should defo be checks there to ensure that they're gonna be safe no matter what
oak cloak
NYT also called MI
mystic ermine
(Well, """safe""" for the military)
drifting arch
how does being trans correlate to flat fucking feet
opal moat
Yea, I disagree with the outright ban, but there should defo be checks there to ensure that they're gonna be safe no matter what
aren't there anyway for everyone?
drifting arch
W H A T
opaque prairie
okay so the ban was wrong then, the rest of the checks are already in place whats the issue
elder portal
there should definitely be a set of checks that everyone needs to pass regardless of sexual orientation or anything else
mystic ermine
it's the exact same case for people with mental health issues and people who require treatment for stuff like diabetes, etc
plush crypt
fun fact, there's a lot of stuff you can do in the military which doesn't need you to sleep out in the forest away from meds all the time
elder portal
maybe those checks include "needing to take meds constantly"
but it's all difficult
oak cloak
95%+ of all people in the military essentially work office jobs
elder portal
but doesn't mean it's not worth doing
oak cloak
they just also have to take PT tests lolol
mystic ermine
Once again, I don't agree with the ban, it's stupidly over-reaching
mystic ermine
I mean, I can undertand if you're gonna be in a military zone
But, PT for an office job that sticks in the US?
TF
sweet canyon
So should we expect AP to call MI soon?
opaque prairie
i heard they originally were tomorrow, but i head 7pm? i gotta check again
fast flame
So should we expect AP to call MI soon?
@sweet canyon yes
opal moat
TF
because it is not done for a medical/safety reason, purely politically
plush crypt
Transgender patients had a statistically significant increase in prevalence for all psychiatric diagnoses queried, with major depressive disorder and generalized anxiety disorder being the most common diagnoses
Gee I wonder why that is...
elder portal
Biden now has a 98/100 chance
sweet canyon
Looks like the margin is gaining for biden in MI
opal moat
Transgender patients had a statistically significant increase in prevalence for all psychiatric diagnoses queried, with major depressive disorder and generalized anxiety disorder being the most common diagnoses
Gee I wonder why that is...
Probably not because of other people constantly debating over our existence and basic human rights
plush crypt
On the topic of Biden, he only needs one more state after this, no?
oak cloak
Biden just needs to win any other state
opaque prairie
yeha 1 more state
sweet canyon
He just needs NV really
oak cloak
he's likely to win NV, may win PA or GA
opaque prairie
id prefer a bigger state and margin
oak cloak
very unlikely he'll lose
fast flame
at this point if biden wins any remaining state, he wins
drifting arch
has GA counted atlanta yet
fast flame
trump has to get them all to win
plush crypt
now use your brain for a sec, Basket. Why do you think a majority of those cases are diagnoses that are often caused by stress, pressure, judgment, so on so forth from others? Might it possibly have something with folks with your attitude?
oak cloak
lol Trump is the only one projecting he will win AZ
That's not projecting trump will win
upper steppe
Wait wait wait... Trump banned trans people from enlisting to the military?
opal moat
Yes
drifting arch
blanket ban
elder portal
yep
opaque prairie
was that 2 years ago? 3? was a long time ago right
elder portal
also from getting health care
plush crypt
that includes sitting on your ass doing paperwork ^^
upper steppe
Timeline doesnt seem to match up
opal moat
And rolled back protections against discrimination by doctors against trans people
elder portal
looks like Biden has it this year. 98/100 chance
opaque prairie
going to be super tight
elder portal
he does not, no
opal moat
Read the entire article @upper steppe
elder portal
no
opal moat
That was changed 2016
plush crypt
@upper steppe June 30th 2016, the Obama presidency lifted it
oak cloak
Biden is still favored in PA and AZ right now
elder portal
it's still too close to call for NV
upper steppe
Read the entire article @upper steppe
@opal moat I'm just curious how a 1960s issue is being blamed on trump in 2020
plush crypt
July 26th, 2017, Trump re-banned it
elder portal
and Biden is definitely favored for PA
sweet canyon
NV won't count till tmmr or tonight
oak cloak
PA can go either way, AZ is pretty safe for Biden
opal moat
See what proxi is writing it read the rest of the article@upper steppe
oak cloak
you're litteraly taking Trump's projection for winning AZ because it's the only one that says what you want to hear
oak cloak
Also you're taking the word of a guy who claimed victory last night when something like 10 million votes still needed to be counted
opaque prairie
team trump would tell you they won the popular vote if the numbers were right in front of your face
elder portal
exactly
oak cloak
I do not know what is so confusing about this
plush crypt
absolutely none of these are actually certain, though, no? the elected college folks could (in theory) just vote the completely opposite direction, can't they?
elder portal
yep
opaque prairie
i mena yeah but
opaque prairie
i really dont wanna think about that
elder portal
but they could
thorny wing
the way the electors work is they are sent by the party that wins the state
so unless a red state sent blue electors, or a blue state sent red electors, it is unlikely
elder portal
yeah, thankfully
plush crypt
yeah, none of us are saying it's 100% guaranteed that e.g. Cali will vote Biden
elder portal
but the fact that it can even happen is insane
brisk cradle
I am going to write up a blog post about my thoughts.
elder portal
poor Tux
thorny wing
all the world needs is one more election blog post
opal moat
I don't even want to think about it
thorny wing
sorry, ilu tux
opal moat
2016 I went to school drunk after the election bc i couldn't handle it and I don't even live in the USA
upper steppe
Does anyone even know anything about biden other than "he's not Trump" and "he wears a facemask"? Lmfao
elder portal
imagine living here 😛
undone raft
Most states have laws that require electors to vote for the pledged candidate, but only 5 states iirc have actual fines that apply if the elector doesn't vote as pledged.
elder portal
fucking nervewracking
opaque prairie
probably billy, but i really dont actually need anything more than that
elder portal
yeah, his stances on most things are pretty clear @upper steppe
upper steppe
That's sad, bunjimon
opaque prairie
i hate biden as much as the next guy but like, what the fuck am i supposed to do
plush crypt
(Note that I'm not American, nor do I ever plan to move there) I know Biden wants to keep up international affairs and keep allies allies, which is definitely good enough for me to root for him
opaque prairie
im sure as hell not voting for the fascist right? guess im voting for the other guy. like bidens decent but eh. im much farther left than that
upper steppe
I've heard some disturbing things about biden, but not sure how true they are
elder portal
you may want to think Biden is entirely face masks and "not Trump" but his campaign, speeches, and previous voting history show otherwise
near glen
I know that I have heard more disturbing things about trump than biden
Grab em by the pussy trump
elder portal
I've heard some disturbing things about Trump, and they're actually proven true
I mean
opal moat
I don't like Biden either
But you have to pick the lesser of the two evils in your system
elder portal
what's the point?
near glen
Oh and the golden showrr thing
opaque prairie
oh i know biden is a lot deeper. i know he will listen to scientists, which is somethin i value alot, i just, would like a president who isnt in the news every day. idgaf what biden has done, it cant be as bad as trump
elder portal
at that point it's all ad-hominem attacks
opaque prairie
also biden doesnt randomly meet with putin with noone else in the room so like
sweet canyon
The dude literally told people to inject bleach.
mystic ermine
hey
elder portal
I'm done being surprised
mystic ermine
Somebodies gotta get some darwin awards
opaque prairie
i think biden is a decent dude, i just would never ordinarily vote for him
elder portal
it's always sarcasm
opaque prairie
which is a horrible way of running a govvt mind you
mystic ermine
a decent dude who makes women uncomfortable where his running mate called him out on it, consistently voted against same-sex marriage, passed a crimebill which threw thousands of the people he's supposed to be supporting and saving, etc
sweet canyon
He was being sarcastic about people injecting bleach?
thorny wing
no lol
sweet canyon
People did it and died, didn't they?
elder portal
he's always "being sarcastic" and "telling jokes" until he isn't, and he's not
thorny wing
idk if anyone actually did it, but if the way they're going to let him say whatever he wants is "it was sarcasm" that's some pretty fun mind games
elder portal
^
thorny wing
"I was just pretending"
opal moat
Ok one of them is making women uncomfortable and the other one is a rapist, which one is worse your time to vote!
thorny wing
yeah we're in a great place that we have such great choices
elder portal
"it was just a joke, guys! Unless.. ? No, okay, it was just a funny joke haha"
and yes, even if it were purely jokes the president should not be making them while in an official capacity, on campaigns, etc
opaque prairie
i just would like to not be worrying about which one of my family members basic humans right will be taken away today
opal moat
No, politicians normally have a brain they use
mystic ermine
We refer to that as a wallet
upper steppe
Everyone wanted something different. Everyone wanted someone that would shake things up. Everyone wanted someone that would turn things upside down. When trump did those things everyone then be like 
opal moat
if you are living in constant fear because of who the president is idk what to tell ya
That's literally what thousands of minorities have to do
Because their life depends on it
mystic ermine
I mean, if you ask me, we really just need an unpronounced covid level virus to "help" with politicians
thorny wing
he did actually
opal moat
BIPoC, LGBTQ+, disabled, women, etc
opaque prairie
i wanted someone to shake things up like someone who cares about people might have done, not like an autocrat
thorny wing
whether that was more turn out or previous voters switching over will be interesting to see
opaque prairie
tldr, bernie sanders for president
spiral basin
This was a bit earlier, it's like 70mill now:
https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/757662666389979308/773670334880153600/image0.jpg
opal moat
trump won more minorities this time then he did last time and the only group he did worse with is white men
Or just less people voted for him and the numbers shifted
spiral basin
correlation != causation
opaque prairie
or like, the fox news propaganda machine works
thorny wing
really you can look at that and draw a conclusion in any direction you want, Im not sure there's enough context in any direction to draw conclusions from that
though idk how you'd get them either
you're back to trusting exit polls or pre-vote polls
mystic ermine
Everybody has different views on it, but, there are a good handful of people in those predominantly democrat voters who are "seeing the light", so to speak
near glen
Exit polls exclude mail voters, right?
opaque prairie
depends on the exit polls
near glen
Is there stats on how many mail voters you got?
near glen
How would an exit polls include mail voters?
mystic ermine
Mini
tough cedar
calling them i guess
mystic ermine
stop asking smart questions
near glen
Kek
thorny wing
exit polls are famously kinda ehhhh anyway glances at 2016
idk if there's enough context to say much
but that data is definitely interesting
thorny wing
it's notable even if it doesnt mean much in the total
upper steppe
Inb4 trump buys EC votes in December
runs away
elder portal
Whatever happened to QAnon, by the way? That still around?
tough cedar
yes there is one in congress now too
opaque prairie
yeah one of em got elected to the house which is scary
thorny wing
yes, one of them was just elected to congress
thorny wing
anyway, Im still laughing at the people who thought it'd be a blow out
how disconnected can you be
tough cedar
in whose favor? lol
upper steppe
He is pretty good at being racist considering most people thinks he is
@small root this is america, you don't have to be racist for people to label you one
thorny wing
biden's
elder portal
Fucking hell, there's no such thing as a clearance beyond top secret
brisk cradle
The 4chan reaction is real funny tho not gonna lie. https://twitter.com/mothistopheles/status/1324037003428667392
elder portal
You get into SCI at that point
thorny wing
the rural/urban divide hasnt gone away, it's only gotten worse
near glen
Whatever happened to QAnon, by the way? That still around?
@elder portal qanon shit is big in germany for whatever reason
elder portal
Weird
opaque prairie
im pretty sure trump is a great example of a racist
spiral basin
It's the ol "One man's terrorist is another's freedom fighter"
elder portal
I'd love to just hammer on this whole fake "Q clearance" thing, but the time for that is passed it seems. Or maybe it'll resurface later
tough cedar
just gonna send that again
of course you can counter by finding the few times he did denounce it i guess
mystic ermine
he clarified what he meant the next day
thorny wing
he has fucked that up a few times now though, idk what's so hard it about
elder portal
Speaking of QAnon I guess
mystic ermine
While a shitty way to word it, when you consider how he speaks generally, he means gtfo the way
opaque prairie
i mean, if literally denying black people apartments and calling for the death of black people without trial? yeah seems normal
thorny wing
even blatantly racist politicians of the past did just fine lying about it
mystic ermine
I think that the issue is that he's too stupid to just be outright about it
mystic ermine
He'd rather try to shove a "it's not just my side" spin to it
mystic ermine
Issue is that it makes it easy to say that he didn't say that, or spin it varying other ways
He's denounced it several times
thorny wing
he's for or against whatever gets him the vote
I dont think he really cares in either direction
opaque prairie
hes def for white supremacy, mainly cause those dumbasses are willing to fight for him
thorny wing
if you look at interviews with him he does this thing where he flips to suit whoever he's talking to, about a myriad of issues
thats not how racism works
at all
opaque prairie
i dont see how that is an indication of him not being racist lol
thorny wing
even if we conjure up the best version of that chart, which we can't do it any direction anyway
that's not how that works
mystic ermine
I think that in a closed business room, it's stupid but I could maybe see it kinda making sense how he does that, but in politics with cameras watching 24/7, eeeerrr....
thorny wing
he cares a lot about how he comes off, yet he acts like he doesnt
which is a little weird for the maverick outsider thing he wants to go for
but then again there's a lot weird about this timeline
elder portal
I still have to wonder what happened while Trump and Putin were in a closed room together with zero supervision
that scares me
it probably always will
thorny wing
presidents have been having sketchy conversations with foreign leaders for decades
mystic ermine
duuude
thorny wing
I think the media has overhyped that one a bit
mystic ermine
I did not wanna picture that
elder portal
it's the only one in recent history that wasn't supervised, recorded, or had any translators
that's why it scares me
thorny wing
if trump and putin had some major conspiracy going there are far more subtle ways to do it
that we know of
I wouldnt bet that statistic holds up at all in reality
elder portal
that we know of, true. I hope someone was there
or that we haven't had incidents
it's not the issue of can they
it's the issue of what would they be discussing that Russia would know about and the US wouldn't?
thorny wing
not saying it isnt weird, but I am saying I dont think it's automatically a giant issue
plenty of foreign leaders do have private 1:1 conversations with others, including past presidents
elder portal
all recorded, though
thorny wing
ehhhh doubt
elder portal
or have people with them
thorny wing
hard doubt
elder portal
at least to public knowledge
thorny wing
do not believe that's the case for one second
mystic ermine
I think that there's more OMG TRUMP IS DOING, more these days than past presidents
thorny wing
trump is a bumbling idiot of a business man so Im not going to get into his strategy
oak cloak
negotiating
lmao
elder portal
Trump has no negotiating strategy
mystic ermine
So, stuff like putin and obama walking into a room together is less front page news worthy than trump
thorny wing
guy inherited a massive amount of wealth and has pissed the majority of it away, in debt to several banks, and is likely hiding some tax fraud
elder portal
I think I lost braincells
oak cloak
It is pretty questionable considering russian interference in 2016 which helped trump win the election, which Trump was aware of and accepted without question
thorny wing
truly the most brilliant thing he's done is generate this image that he's a decent business man
mystic ermine
yea
oak cloak
the only time he's been a good businessman is when he played one on TV
restive seal
it seems to work with trade deals
Tell me more about how China's doing great under Trump and we're still burning money to support farmers because of the screwed up trade war. 😛
oak cloak
otherwise the only reason he's so ""rich"" now is because he was given a load of money and told to buy property in NY in the 70's
thorny wing
we've been burning money on handouts to farmers for decades though too
whats a little mroe
oak cloak
which he did, at the direction of his daddy who gave him all of his money
oak cloak
losing in what way
mystic ermine
China still exports a fuck ton
Yea, it costs more, but, it's practically business as usual for them
oak cloak
when you buy property in NY in the 70s with money that isn't yours, it's literally impossible to not make money. That's the only thing he's ever done that was successful and he had nothing to do with it
same for his TV show, he was essentially just an actor
thorny wing
idk if I could sit on tv and fire people all day while taking a check I'd do it too
elder portal
I need to time travel back to the 70's.. And be a millionaire, I guess.
not a fantastic actor
but hey, whatever sells
thorny wing
in home alone 2?
elder portal
and home alone 2 was decent
thorny wing
dude had like 2 lines
oak cloak
it was a cameo lol
elder portal
was talking about both roles
thorny wing
it was cheap entertainment, that's about as american as it gets
whatever, that's fine
elder portal
but I actually enjoyed home alone 2 well enough. Never got into the "you're fired!" thing
thorny wing
lol makes sense
mystic ermine
it's just typical reality TV type BS
I mean, it's better than hollyoaks
brit references nobody gets, woooo
elder portal
not sure what a hollyoak is
thorny wing
notice everyone has been barking over the presidency
mystic ermine
I mean, yea, but it's rarely the good people
thorny wing
I dont think the dems are gonna flip the senate though
yeah they have the house ezpz
mystic ermine
At the end of the day, they're on a TV show which is backed by a TV network, etc
thorny wing
idk if she did, she should if she hasnt
restive seal
Yes, about an hour ago.
thorny wing
yeah that's the maine senate race, there was thought that they'd be able to push collins out
didnt happen
restive seal
Alternative to conceding is waiting for finalized votes.
thorny wing
senate in general didnt really go as far as some thought
restive seal
Yep, 2 more years of a senate that refuses to do anything is likely.
elder portal
one thing at a time
thorny wing
mcconnell kept his seat in kentucky so pretty likely
thorny wing
turtle man keeps on turtling
thorny wing
you dont seem to understand statistics very well
elder portal
there was hope
restive seal
mcconnell kept his seat in kentucky so pretty likely
Doesn't matter who's sitting at top, they all were complicit in it.
thorny wing
1/10 shot is still a significant chance, and things were definitely not the close
elder portal
true to an extent, I think
thorny wing
susan v gideon was definitely not a "lol no one said collins was going to win"
elder portal
the problem is McConnell seems to have mastered the craft
thorny wing
he's been there forever, knows what levers to pull and how to play the game
thorny wing
even that data doesnt say that
once again
I dont think you know how statistics work
elder portal
I'm not sure he knows how much of anything works
after talking to him the last couple days
thorny wing
none of that
elder portal
the frustration is there
the problem seems to be, @autumn lotus , that you take everything Trump's saying at face-value
no matter how unlikely it is
or how much of a bald-faced lie
thorny wing
no lol
foggy fern
Wait did @autumn lotus say he thinks the Republicans are going to get 30 seats in the House?
elder portal
not at all
thorny wing
biden got a lot of issues
I dont see how theyre going to take the house at all
but I also dont see how the dems will take the senate either
elder portal
I have a brain that I use to vote with. My opinions might be very different from yours, and some of them can be extreme, but I did my research to come to the conclusions I came to
thorny wing
I will support any candidate that is in favor of getting rid of timezones
elder portal
I didn't check Twitter to see what Biden says and parrot it everywhere
foggy fern
I guess it'd only be a net gain of 19 for them to do it but I don't see them getting 14 more
elder portal
there's a difference between researching something to come to a conclusion and researching something with a conclusion in mind, though, and that's usually confirmation bias
which seems to be rampant here
mystic ermine
See, timezones are a weird societal thing
thorny wing
welcome to the average voter
thorny wing
I dont care what time it is when the sun is directly overhead
foggy fern
First two years of Biden is just going to be him reversing all of Trump's executive orders and trying some of his own
thorny wing
just get rid of timezones and Ill vote for you
elder portal
lol
thorny wing
there's my radical position
mystic ermine
Worrrking 12 tooooo 8, gotta maaake a liiivin
foggy fern
Unless the Senate is actually willing to pass some legislation now that they're at risk for 2022
rose heron
Time zones are great, daylight savings not so much
elder portal
just get rid of time entirely
foggy fern
That'd solve almost all of the hard problems I run in to with programming
elder portal
if you think about it, though, if everywhere in the world followed UTC then it actually wouldn't be that bad
foggy fern
They're pretty much all time, timezones, and DST
elder portal
it wouldn't be nearly as confusing
thorny wing
ofc I thought trump would win this thing so, maybe my predictions arent that great
¯_(ツ)_/¯
elder portal
and you could pinpoint a location easier
thorny wing
it is what it is, sun will still rise tomorrow
thorny wing
states have until something like the 27th to certify their votes so, plenty of time for last minute massive flips, but I think we'd have seen that already when the mail-ins were processed
thorny wing
PA is the one people are watching to flip on mail ins
right now trump has a lead
idk if he'll lose it or not, but we'll see
elder portal
if Biden takes MI and NV it's over
thorny wing
dems have had the advantage in mail ins
foggy fern
A lot of those house races are only like 70-80% of the vote in
elder portal
and that's looking likely
thorny wing
that wont take that long to see though, we'll likely know by the end of the week at the altest
elder portal
AZ's been called
AP called it, it's good
I mean, again, still counting
but it's good
thorny wing
AP has been pretty spot on, certainly a lot more trusted than cnn
no AP can call it, not egg
elder portal
^
thorny wing
if AP called house races, we'd care
elder portal
I call nothing
thorny wing
and they may yet, who knows
restive seal
I call my parents sometimes to check on them.
elder portal
@restive seal how's the family?
thorny wing
I keep trying to call mbax but he keeps ducking my calls
fucking jerk
make me cri 😦
restive seal
What are you using to track AP fastest?
elder portal
mine seems to have slowed down
blazing junco
I think it would take a miracle for trump to take AZ
foggy fern
@restive seal https://www.wusa9.com/elections-2020-map
elder portal
there's a map someone posted earlier that was basically straight AP data
that, looks like
he's trying so hard
there we go
restive seal
It doesn't keep them alphabetized fully
elder portal
weird
restive seal
elder portal
might be a "use" thing
foggy fern
thorny wing
mine are Z-A
elder portal
weird
elder portal
lol
weary obsidian
fucking murder hornet level sting
weary obsidian
yes id love to have some hope for home lol
weve been blue before, iirc we went blue for obama
oak cloak
oh look, AP has called MI finally
elder portal
eyyy
foggy fern
barty is either on Windows 7 or Linux
elder portal
Biden now has a 98/100 chance of winning
weary obsidian
is it illegal for dems to fund relocation for californians to swing states lol?
elder portal
time to check twitter
foggy fern
Really? I thought they had better emoji
elder portal
see the rage
mystic ermine
Some state was actually planning to make it the landlords responsibility to pay for relocation costs if they price them out
But, like, the election systems are generally trash in dozens of places, especially with the recent rise of "fuck the other party" politics
thorny wing
yeah they dont have them even on the latest version
so you get the default unicode ones
elder portal
for a moment I thought Z was talking about voting
gotta have the latest version of FPTP
restive seal
... wait. Assuming the current called states aren't overturned, Nevade news in 3 hours will reach the goal won't it?
thorny wing
pffft I did drive through voting this year, easiest year ever for voting
elder portal
I heard it's supposed to be a great update
thorny wing
it was a great update in that respect
elder portal
yeah
oak cloak
we could know if biden wins by tonight, with NV now saying they may release some results today
restive seal
Yeah, definitely waiting on confirmation, and hoping another state or two goes, but just thinking from the "first impression" thought based on them calling stuff.
elder portal
woo boy
thorny wing
fox actually used to have pretty great election coverage, idk if thats still the case
they called obama's victory first before most other outlets way back when
actually drew them a lot of ire
thorny wing
careful, theyll think they're a victim again
sweet canyon
Looks like they just called MI?
elder portal
this is a presidential Tweet
this is not a presidential tweet
do we see a difference?
weary obsidian
how do you republicans defend your parties extremism trying to supress voting and cheat?
weary obsidian
trying to not count a legal vote is cheating
weary obsidian
yeah MI got called
elder portal
like, the absolute difference in calibre of those tweets is astonishing
weary obsidian
just need nevada now
oak cloak
@weary obsidian we may know NV tonight too, NV officials are amending their previous statement that we wouldn't get results until tomorrow and saying we might see some today
shut vine
Trump has PA, which is another 20. Any state gives Biden the win though.
sand shale
So
oak cloak
My entire family voted Trump, guaranteed
sand shale
What happens if Nobody gets 270+?
weary obsidian
james PA is still not a clear win for trump yet, still lots of votes to count with huge dem sway
congress chooses president IIRC in a tie
tawny edge
oak cloak
if nobody get's 270, there's a complicated bullshit process, but it would almost guarantee a trump/pence 2nd term
shut vine
Yeah, prior to them counting the mail ins, the number of registered dem plus independent was not enough to pull blue in front.
sand shale
well, I hope biden gets 270+ then
oak cloak
Trump's lead in GA continues to shrink, 1.2 points now
foggy fern
I don't think it's possible to tie at this point
oak cloak
the only tie possibility required trump to win all of NE's ECs I believe
shut vine
I think it'll be 270 exactly, Trump 268.
foggy fern
AK only gives 3 and NV gives 6
Biden needs 6
Right, faithless electors could still do it I suppose
oak cloak
an elector being unfaithful isn't a tie scenario, not in this sense at least
sand shale
oh right