Possibility is still there
#politics
oak cloak
some states do have laws which change a faithless elector's votes back to what it should be
shut vine
Void states are like Colorado, Minnesota, and Michigan.
oak cloak
I think like 13 states do
foggy fern
Isn't it up to the House if it gets voided?
near glen
elder portal
13/50
oak cloak
but I don't remember the exactly number
shut vine
So if an elector in those states votes unfaithfully their vote is void.
elder portal
Not promising
shut vine
No, it's up to the state.
shut vine
Only 3 really prohibit it, 30 fine you if you do it.
elder portal
Yeah
foggy fern
I suppose technically it is still up to the House in the sense that they could reject the count that has it voided
elder portal
That's kinda a big problem
foggy fern
But I wasn't aware they could even try to void it
shut vine
Fine is like not the real solution. lol
elder portal
"fuck your votes, we decided who is actually going to be president" sounds undemocratic to me
The possibility of it being there is terrifying enough
foggy fern
That's the whole point of the EC
cosmic badge
Doesn't matter if it's democratic as long as it's constitutional, unfortunately :p
foggy fern
It was supposed to be a final check to stop someone like Trump from being elected
elder portal
By design
foggy fern
It didn't work
elder portal
We did, and you pulled up the map
shut vine
Realistically the void should happen regardless of state. Should be federally protected.
elder portal
Which is also refuted
near glen
A republic can be Democratic.....
elder portal
But neh
cosmic badge
Correct, the US is a democratic republic, a real one (unlike North Korea)
near glen
Germany is a democratic republic
oak cloak
The EC exists because of slavery
elder portal
Point is, we still won't know until December
oak cloak
that is history
elder portal
That's when it's final
oak cloak
All other arguments otherwise are an attempt to ignore or rewrite history
cosmic badge
There are actually very few countries that are directly democratic, one I can think of is Switzerland
oak cloak
the 3/5 compromise is literally in the constitution ffs
foggy fern
The EC apportionment including Senators is because of slavery, the EC itself isn't
oak cloak
I'm referring to the distribution of votes, which is due to slavery
near glen
Switzerland is a federal republic too...
shut vine
Isn't Germany a Federal Republic?
near glen
It is
drifting arch
it literally exists because the southern states were like "waahh pop small so we cant get any power. o WAIT! lets make slaves worth 3/5th a person and then institute the EC that gives states voting power based on population, due to the 3/5ths we have higher pop now we have more votes wahoo!!!!"
near glen
Yet we are still democratic without an EC
cosmic badge
I hate the EC because the argument for it is that it prevents "Tyranny of the Majority"
But by definition, tyranny of the majority is democracy.
shut vine
Correct, Democracy favors the majority.
Even if the majority don't know what's good for them.
near glen
Which is the whole point of a democracy
oak cloak
the house is not democratic, you are voting for a representative in both the senate and the house
near glen
Even if the majority don't know what's good for them.
@shut vine that sounds like you just disagree with the majority
cosmic badge
Technically senators represent the state, not the people.
oak cloak
but regardless none of that matters
shut vine
Not particularly no.
oak cloak
what we are saying is the system which was created is bad
it doesn't really matter why they created it, it's bad
it doesn't work, and it should be removed
cosmic badge
And the fact that House seats are capped where they are is really, really bad.
700k people per representative is horrible.
elder portal
Yeah, the founding fathers weren't really concerned about large metropolitan areas, considering the largest area in that time was 2,500 people
cosmic badge
The founders wanted you to know your representative like you know your neighbor.
oak cloak
the founders said only white land-owning men could vote
so yeah I'm not that worried about their opinion on the matter
elder portal
The electoral college fails at the thing it was meant to do
It is fundamentally flawed
foggy fern
The law for the House apportionment should be that the smallest state (currently Montana) gets 1 representative and the others get their population/Montana population
Argue over how to round it
oak cloak
I don't care what the federalist papers say, as stated earlier
shut vine
That makes a lot of sense, Amaranth
oak cloak
but also how is the EC not a popularity contest, but worse?
thats such an absurd argument
upper steppe
Argue over how to round it
@foggy fern dwarfs and midgets count as half a person
runs away
oak cloak
Fine, ignore what I'm saying
no point in my wasting the time to type it out if you won't read it
elder portal
@upper steppe so you're 1/4 a person? :P
upper steppe
@upper steppe so you're 1/4 a person? :P
@elder portal I'm neither :p
shut vine
Still shouldn't allow electors to be unfaithful.
foggy fern
It we added about 100 members to the House the Senate wouldn't tilt the EC so hard
cosmic badge
They generally aren't.
elder portal
Billy is secretly a bird man confirmed
shut vine
Yeah generally, but still it should be void/treason.
oak cloak
secretly
elder portal
Lol
cosmic badge
I'm just glad this shit is finally over (no more voting) because now I won't get spam calls/texts.
plush crypt
dont yall have robocallers anyways
drifting arch
I was getting texted and emailed about 3 times an hour 24/7 this election season fwiw
foggy fern
I live in Iowa and my number is from there but I lived in Florida recently enough to still be on all their lists too
Don't talk to me about election spam 😛
shut vine
I wonder how many counties will have a nominee make them do recounts.
elder portal
They usually recount
shut vine
I suspect whoever wins it will be quite a few.
feral sparrow
The best part of the election is that the calls slow down
elder portal
Counting at least twice is normal
shut vine
By nominee request or as part of procedure?
elder portal
Procedure
shut vine
Because I know nominee's have a legal right to request a recount.
shut vine
Yeah, that's what I'm specifically interested in. Also yea, I agree.
oak cloak
Biden is within 1% in WI
Less than 30k
Others are reporting biden has already overtaken Trump in WI
foggy fern
Perdue is getting closer to that 50% mark in Georgia too
oak cloak
AP now confirms biden is leading in WI
foggy fern
We might have two runoff elections after all
near glen
Abc shows him 11k ahead in WI
shut vine
So does NYT
near glen
So with nevada that would be 254, where else would he be able to win?
shut vine
He could theoretically win MI, GA, NC
near glen
Maine has one uncalled, right?
shut vine
PA but that's a huge longshot.
I would call Maine called as blue.
It was like 54% to 40% with 70% in last I checked.
near glen
So either MI, GA, NC or PA would basically mean biden wins?
shut vine
It's possible he could win, but I would bet money on him not winning it.
If he got any two of those Biden wins I think
Yeah, Biden would win with any two of MI, PA, NC, GA.
near glen
They all got > 15 EC votes and with full Maine, nevada and WI he would be at 255, so 15 is enough for 270
NC is 15 actually
Do you need 270 or > 270?
sand shale
so uh, what are the chances of biden winning?
near glen
Yeah I guess
shut vine
Lander will probably be red, not sure about the others.
near glen
It's not impossible kashike
shut vine
Think it's pretty high.
cosmic badge
could go either way at this point
near glen
Anything more is a guess
opal moat
Well CNN ads are on point today
shut vine
I'd mark him more likely with the current numbers, but yea, it could easily go the other way.
cosmic badge
lol funny since canada has some of the strictest immigration rules
near glen
Cnn hasn't called AZ?
opal moat
Immigrate to canada to cuddle kash
sand shale
CNN's site is trash
shut vine
NYT didn't call it either
opal moat
Can I still come to cuddle
foggy fern
Only AP and Fox have called AZ
And Fox might have fired their decision desk and just use the AP calls, I didn't watch
shut vine
It's a pretty reasonable call.
sand shale
when will the final results be done?
shut vine
Like it's possible it's wrong but I'd rate it as most likely blue.
foggy fern
Few weeks
sand shale
weeks? what?
cosmic badge
Probably as early as tomorrow or several days to actually get a "who won?" answer.
sand shale
upper steppe
It's "projected" until then
sand shale
but like
shut vine
You'll probably have a reasonable idea in 2 days, the final pre-college results will be Nov-17
shut vine
It's complicated AF basically.
near glen
They are still counting kash
sand shale
yea but like, it takes WEEKS to count the votes?
plush crypt
mail-in voting, recounting, and the college elections or whatever
near glen
No but validation
drifting arch
this election is special due to covid
opal moat
Kash don't forget that the actual voting for the president is only done in December
oak cloak
Usually it's determined on election night, but votes are never finished counting by then
near glen
That's like this everywhere Kash, you got results on the next day, but it's not offically for quite some time
plush crypt
wonder if covid will last till september; i dont really wanna figure out mail-in voting
upper steppe
It's always taken weeks. Just no one cared before cause there's always a clear winner. This time it's pretty damn close
violet lion
bruh just wait until Trump says that all votes are fake
sand shale
Kash don't forget that the actual voting for the president is only done in December
then why the fuck are they showing president results everywhere right now if this isn't the president election?
near glen
Because you vote for ppl who then promise to vote for somebody 😂
plush crypt
theyre electing the electors
sand shale
wat
opal moat
'murica
drifting arch
welcome to the USA
cosmic badge
dont question it
plush crypt
you vote to have someone vote
drifting arch
we dont do popular vote, we vote for the electoral college to vote for the president
near glen
Google Electoral college Kash, have you never heard of this?
foggy fern
I think the only question at this point is if Biden barely wins or picks up a couple extra states
sand shale
I don't care about politics mostly
cosmic badge
hm, i wouldn't count trump out just yet
opal moat
oak cloak
They are literally scanning paper ballots in most cases, by hand, and there's extremely strict rules about when and how ballot drop boxes can be opened and who must be present (must have reps from both parties), it all has to be documented, votes counted and sent, and often recounted for verification
upper steppe
Please no
near glen
Go watch that vid, else you don't understand how this works
upper steppe
That was a bad year
cosmic badge
if by 2009 you mean after the recession, then i guess yeah
near glen
Wasn't that the financial crisis?
cosmic badge
but not before 😛
upper steppe
2008-2009 was, yeah mini
cosmic badge
2007-2009 was a dark economic period for a lot of people
foggy fern
I think 2009 is when I bought a 360, good year 😛
oak cloak
Not caring about politics is how we got here in the first place. Not blaming you, just that sentiment is what causes people to not vote and representatives to be elected who don't represent their constituencies very well
Politics are important unfortunately :(
foggy fern
I don't know how it hit the rest of the state but this part of Iowa seemed to not really notice the crash in 08
violet lion
If more people had voted four years ago, do you think that we'd be in this "mess"? 🤔
oak cloak
Oklahoma was hit less hard than other places because it's such an oil state
near glen
I mean, here in germany we luckly didn't notice much of that
oak cloak
But we still felt it
sand shale
the solution is simple
foggy fern
Wasn't a part of the crash the price for oil dropping like 80%?
upper steppe
My job used it as an excuse to implement a wage freeze. No one got raises, even during promotions :3
shut vine
1 in 2 people in US don't vote on average
oak cloak
@upper steppe yeah my SO's job did similar for COVID, but it was bullshit they never needed to do it
foggy fern
We'll probably end up with around 150 million votes, that's more like 2 in 5
shut vine
2016 was actually the highest it had been in about 50 years
oak cloak
You're probably right about oil prices, I'm probably misremembering
foggy fern
2 in 5 actually voting, I mean
oak cloak
Twas a while ago
cosmic badge
Trump actually got more votes this year than he did in 2016 😛
shut vine
Yeah, since Trump there have been a lot more voters.
upper steppe
Imagine if everyone could vote from the smart phone? I'm pretty sure we'd get better vote counts then
shut vine
I don't think it's been this high since the 60's.
opal moat
electronic voting is a big no no
plush crypt
I'm honestly more stoked to see the total voter participation ngl
oak cloak
We should vote by shouting
foggy fern
I think the final popular vote will be Biden +5
upper steppe
electronic voting is a big no no
@opal moat that's how I feel about mail in voting lol
oak cloak
Mail in voting is dope
opal moat
well really depends on your laws and postal service
oak cloak
You can't scale attacks against mail voting very well
cosmic badge
Yeah kinda scary how evenly the vote is split 😛
oak cloak
Esp with a fully functional USPS
cosmic badge
Americans be crazy
oak cloak
Electronic voting attacks def scale well
foggy fern
If electronic voting was treated like a cross between cryptocurrency and medical equipment and/or a NASA lander I might be willing to go for it
plush crypt
Over here you can cast votes at your local city hall long before the election, or mail em in ^^ Would be cool if you could start doing that too lol
oak cloak
That's how most places do work here
But since states have fill authority over how they run elections, it varies by state
shut vine
I'm 50/50 on that idea. It's definitely more convenient. But gives a lot more time for something bureaucratic to screw up.
foggy fern
Voting gives you a token you can use to verify your vote is included in the final count and was counted the right way but doesn't let anyone who gets your token figure out how you voted and all the software has proofs of correctness (like TLA+ and Coq proofs, real math shit) and follows NASA development practices
oak cloak
Basically that (theoretically) prevents the president from fiddling with the election since the states, not the federal government, have complete authority over how they run their own elections
cosmic badge
Real Math Shit ™
foggy fern
Give me that and enough openness to make me believe you actually did it and I might consider electronic voting
oak cloak
The problem with that system is convincing non-technical people that the system can the trusted
A good election system should be obvious to anyone that it can the trusted, just by looking at it
foggy fern
Guess you need to make the token a QR code and write some Android and iOS apps too
cosmic badge
Voter suppression! Too poor for smartphone
foggy fern
Oh and of course print out a paper log that can be used to satisfy worried voters and is kept as a backup for recounts
Recount wouldn't have the verification with your token since it'd be an old school count
oak cloak
What if we just filled out papper ballots than snapchated them to trump
drifting arch
that was an extreme zed moment
foggy fern
shut vine
Well we could trust twitter with our votes surely.
foggy fern
I should have been doing this all night 😛
shut vine
"Vote BIDEN" / "Vote TRUMP" -> number of retweets = victory
Not like they'd ban anyone or prevent retweets or anything.
sand shale
just use a twitter poll
foggy fern
Huh, Twitter flagged Trump's post about saying the votes are a fraud but not his campaign's video of him saying it
near glen
Even twitter moderators don't want to watch his videos
oak cloak
Oh, back to why voting takes so long, provisional ballots take much longer to verify
foggy fern
Do they even both trying if the provisional ballots are less than the margin?
oak cloak
If for whatever reason you can't provide what you need to vote at the polling site you can always request a provisional ballot
foggy fern
I guess they're probably not less than the margin for every race so probably
oak cloak
Not sure, seems possible but I would hope all votes are counted :/
upper steppe
Anyone old enough to remember the Florida recount because of ballot chads? Lmao
near glen
Counting all legitimate votes is fraud demon, smh
shut vine
Technically not counting them is a constitutional violation I think.
foggy fern
oak cloak
Honestly why do we let florida vote at all
They never do us any good
I mean come on
It's Florida
foggy fern
2000 Florida was proof you shouldn't let the programmers design your UI 😛
For real, voting in Florida used to be more complicated than doing your taxes
shut vine
I actually think it's insane that states have such a difference in something so important.
foggy fern
The absentee ballot results in Green Bay, Wis., are delayed because one of the vote-counting machines ran out of ink. An elections official had to return to City Hall to get more.
Those numbers coming from Green Bay will probably be what makes places start calling WI for Biden, unless they're surprising
shut vine
Seems like they are organized af.
foggy fern
Morning Joe is already talking about how all the polls were wrong again
shut vine
Maybe, isn't all around Green bay red?
cosmic badge
Trump barely won Green Bay in 2016
foggy fern
Not just the public polls, even the usually rosy/skewed polls the campaigns do
cosmic badge
oh no that's Wisc in general. nvm
foggy fern
Like, according to backchannel and leaks even the Trump campaign thought MN, WI, and MI were not even worth campaigning in
Trump was doing it anyway because that's Trump
oak cloak
Biden likely has WI, NV as well since it already favors Biden and they haven't counted mailin ballots yet
So if that holds then Biden literally just needs to win any one of MI, GA, PA, or NC
foggy fern
It looks like the polling for MN was pretty close though
shut vine
Green Bay has 144K ish, so there are another.. 50K to count?
cosmic badge
sounds like it'll come down to PA?
Trump barely won PA in 2016, but Obama won it handily in 2012
oak cloak
Biden has several paths to winning without PA
cosmic badge
And there's still a ton of unreported votes
foggy fern
Unless Green Bay absentee ballots put Trump back on top I'm not sure he can come back but taking another look it'll probably be close enough they sit on it just like NC
oak cloak
if it comes down to PA that's gonna be a shit show
shut vine
Biden will win with AZ + any two of NC, GA, PA, MI (and any other state not called)
shut vine
WI will not get him over under certain conditions
foggy fern
I mean, Alaska is still out but ha
cosmic badge
I don't think Biden gets MI, NC or GA
shut vine
If he gets AZ NV, WI, And any of MI PA or GA, he wins.
foggy fern
NC, GA, and WI appear to all be nailbiters
foggy fern
I think NC is going Trump but GA might go Biden at like 10am when Atlanta catches up
shut vine
PA will be very close I think too
cosmic badge
AP has called AZ already so assuming that's locked in, hopefully... path to victory methinks is NV, WI and PA
oak cloak
I've seen a lot of people suggest MI will follow WI with absentee ballots
That would be a nice easy win of that happened
shut vine
Yeah, it's very possible.
foggy fern
He's up by 5% in AZ and that lead isn't shrinking fast enough as new votes come in
shut vine
As I said, the situation right now favors Biden.
oak cloak
Yeah agree
cosmic badge
I think people are overestimating his chances of winning though
shut vine
All of the remaining states are very close mostly though
oak cloak
I can probably go to sleep with that knowledge now
cosmic badge
Trump is still in a position to surprise
foggy fern
It's possible Trump still keeps AZ but I doubt it
oak cloak
It can definitely go either way sadly
oak cloak
I'm keeping my fingers crossed for GA
foggy fern
NC, GA, and WI are probably going to be too close to call for a while, NC most of all
MI and PA we won't know until probably like noon tomorrow if they're going to be close or not
oak cloak
Aikar didn't rally hard enough in NC
foggy fern
Or noon today I guess
cosmic badge
NV, WI + NC is just 1 short of 270, lol
foggy fern
Toss in ME-2 😛
upper steppe
It's ok guys, no matter who wins, we'll all survive ^_^ Same team, remember ;)
shut vine
Yeah most states are expected to have an indicative result by Wednesday evening or earlier.
oak cloak
Lots of people didn't survive trump..
shut vine
Yeah, correct, we'll still be fine whoever wins.
oak cloak
I'll be fine as a straight white dude but a lot other people can't know that for sure
foggy fern
Oh wow Ernst kept her seat by 6.6
upper steppe
Oh, right. I forgot covid was trump's fault.. smfh
foggy fern
Iowa is just super disappointing this election
oak cloak
The US could have (should have) approached COVID like SK or vietnam or NZ or denmark. But instead we're the worst in the world
We could have been the best
shut vine
Blaming Trump for 233k deaths due to a pandemic is what a really good manipulative politician would say. You should probably run.
oak cloak
We had the resources and the expertise to do it
shut vine
😛
foggy fern
I think Democrats are going to end up with 49 seats in the Senate but we'll have 1 or maybe 2 runoff elections in Georgia still
Might be 48 though which is outside the range for the polls
oak cloak
But the executive branch of our government chose to ignore and activity fight science instead
shut vine
Democrats are currently up one in the Senate.
foggy fern
That's up 1 vs 2018 but they were down by more than 1 😛
shut vine
They flipped another seat, not sure which. Arizona I think.
oak cloak
Decided to push back and disrupt all efforts to improve the situation and in a few notable cases pushed through deals which did nothing but improve their profits
cosmic badge
There's a lot of executive action that could've been taken to minimize the impact of COVID. A lot of legislative action too, being held up by the same crowd of people.
shut vine
The scientists are the ones who made those recommendations.
They've basically admitted as much.
upper steppe
The US could have (should have) approached COVID like SK or vietnam or NZ or denmark. But instead we're the worst in the world
@oak cloak you seriously think 1 man could have made everyone behave better in the beginning? You know a lot of people literally said "fuck trump" and went on about their spring break like nothing was going on.. but you're right, he should have done more, like arrested those people.. fuck, can't do that either cause thats illegal and you'd hate on him for that if he did lmao
shut vine
You can't blame all 233k deaths on him, that's intellectually dishonest. As if any president would keep it to 0.
Biden was against shutting down the borders early in the year.
foggy fern
You can probably blame a good chunk of the "if we'd been better at masks" deaths on him
oak cloak
I don't believe in a view of the US that the pandemic is just too hard and we did the best we could. Bullshit. We're the richest country in the world. Having the worst response to the pandemic in the world is abysmal and indefensible
foggy fern
Since from the first day he reported the mask recommendation he spent more time making it clear it was only a recommendation and he wouldn't follow it than he did explaining the recommendation
cosmic badge
Any outbreak you can tie back to a Karen or "it's my right to not wear a mask" person can probably be blamed on him.
shut vine
Though, we could just blame the House since they blocked his bills that were trying to fight it.
Cause like, that's what we do when the Senate blocks Obama.
oak cloak
I would love to see those who broke social distancing order being arrested, not sure what you mean by that
upper steppe
Being the worst is bad, I agree. It you can't blame shift that shit onto trump. We, the people, did that shit
foggy fern
The WH and Senate never even put up a bill for the second stimulus for the House to shoot down
shut vine
It was a combination Billy I think.
oak cloak
Trump is the one who turned wearing a god damned mask into a political issue
shut vine
Trump made mistakes, the medical experts did, Governors of states, individuals.
foggy fern
They put up proposals but they didn't even try to get them through the Senate and force a conference committee for the negotiations
cosmic badge
You know what incentivizes people to obey stay at home orders? Stimulus checks.
upper steppe
Trump made mistakes, the medical experts did, Governors of states, individuals.
@shut vine we all did, that's my point. Stop pointing the finger at trump lmao
drifting arch
I would have celebrated arrests of those not following social distancing. 100%
foggy fern
Because the truth of it was they couldn't get anything through the Senate
They couldn't get 50 Republicans to agree to any of the stimulus proposals
shut vine
Yeah, both the Republicans and Democrats negotiated and compromised on those. However neither got to a point where either accepted it.
upper steppe
I would have celebrated arrests of those not following social distancing. 100%
@drifting arch we started doing that here in Texas. Had fines and arrests. But the state governor pointed out that's unconstitutional
foggy fern
Not even the ones from the White House because McConnell tried to do something similar to one of those and it got shot down by Rand Paul
shut vine
Billy I'm not really pointing the finger at anyone. I think that's clear, maybe not.
upper steppe
My point is no matter what trump personally did, you'd find a way to hate on it
drifting arch
No, if he actually handled it like some other countries (NZ is a great example), I would have loved it.
cosmic badge
Hate on Trump? Do you really have to "find" a way? 😛
oak cloak
There's so many things Trump could have done that I would not hate on. That's just a false statement
drifting arch
I voted for Trump in 2016, I just want to be clear. I voted Biden this year because these past four years have been an utter shitshow.
foggy fern
There was like a week in March where I was almost impressed with Trump and thought a crisis might actually make him act like a real serious president
cosmic badge
He has the power to handle it better
foggy fern
Then he kept talking
shut vine
It could have been worse, think there are two Western countries that did worse than USA.
cosmic badge
Is every one of those 233k deaths his fault? No, but we know from the handling of other countries that the impact didn't have to be that bad.
shut vine
Yeah, a lot of countries made mistakes.
foggy fern
Was like "whoa, even Trump is taking this seriously, maybe we'll do okay"
Then they told him his administration didn't restock the pandemic supplies and he should wear a mask and he was done listening to those guys
shut vine
Then he was told to stop panicking people by Fauci due to fears over mask supply.
upper steppe
Iirc wasn't pelosi not wearing a mask in some public barber shop or something, was filmed and made public, now she's sueing the shop owner?
Lmao
cosmic badge
Gee, I wonder how we solve that problem. Maybe we could nationalize mask production
shut vine
Yeah, at a hair dresser.
cosmic badge
But yeah the misleading advice by authorities that masks weren't helpful, that was really, really bad
foggy fern
That's somewhat out of context, Fauci's argument was that because at the time we had no proof masks would be effective
Which was true, we didn't know shit about it in February and March
shut vine
I think the explanation Fauci gave for his recommendations is plausible.
cosmic badge
We did have historical proof based on SARS though
shut vine
He thought telling everyone to wear masks would prevent there being enough supply for the health professionals.
foggy fern
Now, if we had enough masks stockpiled to give everyone a handful of them maybe we would have said "just to be sure, you should all wear this" from the beginning
cosmic badge
It should've at least been considered as an effective precaution
shut vine
Actually his argument was supply shortage.
foggy fern
But since we didn't have enough for normal use and we didn't know if they'd even help telling people not to wear them seemed like the right call
shut vine
Well maybe he made both.
upper steppe
So, we hate on trump for the whole "masks aren't helpful" thing, but pelosi gets a pass... Got it.
shut vine
Yeah, she shits rainbows.
foggy fern
Did Pelosi say that in late March or early April or any time after that? If so she was wrong
Before that we didn't know
shut vine
No she didn't, she was caught not wearing one after that period while at a hair dressers during a lockdown.
upper steppe
Just trying to point out the cherry picking of information
cosmic badge
Pelosi also individually doesn't hold as much power as Trump, who single-handedly wields executive authority.
foggy fern
Going to the hairdresses at all was the dumb thing there but I know when I get my hair done they make me take off the glasses so they can get around my ears, I don't know how you'd do that with a mask on
shut vine
She also didn't intend to get caught.
foggy fern
Unless they're grabbing you under the mask to move it around as they go
shut vine
It's still very inconsistent
foggy fern
Like, once you've decided you're going to be an idiot and get your hair done in the middle of all of this taking your mask off just seems like a requirement
Which is why going at all is the dumb thing
shut vine
If the Democrats were serious they should have sanctioned her ass
foggy fern
She would have to sanction herself?
shut vine
I don't feel it's been used as anything other than a political weapon
foggy fern
Like, until she steps down or the next Congress is voted in I'm pretty sure she's god in the House
shut vine
I'm pretty sure the DNC has an internal process for sanctioning anyone
Inside the DNC
Though I'm not too familiar with their inner workings
foggy fern
I have no idea on that part
foggy fern
Probably, she raises all their money and runs the House
near glen
Nevada is getting really close
shut vine
FYI, if I were looking at a candidate in the DNC I'd be looking at Tulsi Gabbard.
foggy fern
Gabbard is an odd one
shut vine
She doesn't like political bs
foggy fern
She is more leftist than liberal aside from guns, afaik
Which for some reason made the right love her?
Although a lot of leftists are pro-gun, they just want better management of it
shut vine
Yeah, which I think the US needs
cosmic badge
Yeah I'm leftist, don't mind people owning guns in general.
foggy fern
My view is that step 1 should be semiautomatics are banned 😛
Lever action and break action
shut vine
I feel like the background check thing is a bit strange, like you can't purchase one without one currently. Does anyone know why that keeps coming up in the DNC debates?
foggy fern
That's all you need for hunting, protection, or sport
Semiautomatics are just weapons or toys
cosmic badge
Technically 2A is for protection from the government though 😛
And the government has better toys
foggy fern
There are a lot of ways to avoid the background check
shut vine
I'm fine with unbumpable semi's.
foggy fern
@cosmic badge yeah but no one thinks you should get Tomahawks
upper steppe
I do
shut vine
Pretty sure the ones that you can use a bump stock on are really small.
foggy fern
If you lived in my state and I sold you one of my guns there is no background check
cosmic badge
I wouldn't mind a more narrow interpretation/amendment of 2A that restricts gun ownership to those three things you mentioned though. I think the anti-tyranny argument is outdated
foggy fern
afaik the gun show loophole is just lying about being a private sale and not a vendor
shut vine
Yeah I don't think private sales should be allowed except via a place that can do a background check
Gunshows have to do background checks
foggy fern
It's already illegal but because private sale is legal it's hard to deal with since some people really do have private sales and trades at a gun show
upper steppe
Background checks, imho, are a joke. You think the people you need guns to protect against are going to wait for background checks and listen to local, state, and federal laws?
foggy fern
Step 2: Unless you report it stolen ahead of time or have evidence it was stolen if a gun you got a background check for is linked to a crime you are, at the very least, charged as an accessory
shut vine
Within reason I agree with that, there has to be reasonable proof that you knew it was missing at the time.
Or reasonable belief that it could easily be stolen.
foggy fern
That would be the police asking where your gun is and you discovering your safe was broken open
If it wasn't locked up in some way that's a negligence charge
shut vine
Yeah, if you've secured it, and you didn't know your safe had been breached that'd be reasonable.
upper steppe
Locked up?
Yeah, tell me how that works out as you stumble to get to it as someone is actively intruding your home
shut vine
Or you regularly verify the firearm is still in your possession.
foggy fern
Well, there are these things called smartguns you could use for that
shut vine
If I was a US citizen I'd have a firearm, and I'd ensure every day that I had it with me.
Bit hard to steal it without my knowledge if I literally check it every day.
upper steppe
Smart guns? If someone kicks in my door, they're getting a shotgun to the face
shut vine
I also think that's a reasonable measure, if it's stolen during the night, and you're unaware, that's a reasonable defense.
cosmic badge
Is it just me or is MI a lot closer than it was a few minutes ago? 😛
foggy fern
Realistically the negligence charge would be easy to get out of unless you let someone into your home, they stole your gun, and you didn't notice or report it
A smart gun is a gun with a built in trigger lock and a fingerprint reader or handprint reader
shut vine
Nevada is a lot closer now too.
foggy fern
If you're using it it works pretty much right away, other people have to lift your prints and fool it or take it apart first
upper steppe
A smart gun is a gun with a built in trigger lock and a fingerprint reader or handprint reader
@foggy fern sounds nice, until you factor in reality. How many times has your fingerprint reader on your smart phone failed you, for example? ;)
faint radish
yeah I dont think its a good idea to require some kind of additional lock on the trigger
shut vine
If that happens Billy, you blame Donald Trump.
foggy fern
The chance of that happening and being enough of a problem to be the thing that gets someone killed in a home invasion is worth the tradeoff to prevent gun crime with stolen guns
Because one of those is unlikely to happen, especially if this system was in place, while the other happens all the time
cosmic badge
Statistically I'd believe that, but people probably still wouldn't trust it 😛
foggy fern
And it'll never get better without making it harder for criminals to get guns
upper steppe
Oh?
cosmic badge
We'd have to be talking about a massive buyback program 😛
Too many guns already out there
foggy fern
It looked like we re going to trend our way to it going away completely but we seem to have hit a floor
upper steppe
Tell me more about how limiting law abiding citizens with laws and regulations protects us against criminals
shut vine
Is that a bit like how we made it harder for them to get drugs but now they are importing more of it than they ever did?
cosmic badge
But I would support cutting the defense budget in order to fund a federal firearm buyback program
foggy fern
I'm talking about systems that makes it hard to impossible for a criminal to get a gun from a legal owner, that reduces or eliminates new supply so now as you confiscate weapons you're making a dent in things
iirc gun crimes in the UK are committed with the same handful of guns that have been getting passed around for decades and haven't managed to be confiscated, lost, or broken yet
upper steppe
I know what you're talking about, and I fail to see why the criminals would buy/steal those weapons when they will just legit get unrestricted ones elsewhere illegally...
foggy fern
They don't have many left anymore
Where will they get legit unrestricted ones illegally?
shut vine
cosmic badge
Mexico maybe
foggy fern
Huh, guess the UK is backsliding now too
cosmic badge
The advantage other countries do have is they don't have illegal gun exporters
shut vine
UK is a lot easier to prevent importation than the US.
foggy fern
But I thought we had a big beautiful wall on the border now 😛
cosmic badge
Where as I'm guessing in the US it wouldn't be difficult to smuggle guns from Mexico or Central/South America
foggy fern
But sure, that's a reason for increased border security
shut vine
They're basically landlocked yea
There is 100 to 200 billion reasons to increase border security tbh.
foggy fern
It's never going to be completely impossible get get one in but if it's hard enough the black market price will be high enough random gangbangers don't have them
cosmic badge
Aren't we getting to the point they can just be 3D printed now 😛
upper steppe
But sure, that's a reason for increased border security
@foggy fern :O that's a trump idea! Don't let people hear you talk like that lol
shut vine
Yeah border security is kinda racist 😉
upper steppe
Next thing you know you'll be in favor of making the legal immigration system easier for immigrants to get in the legal way
foggy fern
If Trump framed things as being about guns and didn't spend his time talking about Mexican rapists and do something about migrant workers Reagan should have done in 1980 maybe he'd be taken seriously on that
upper steppe
Can't have that
foggy fern
And a wall wouldn't be the right answer for guns anyway
shut vine
I actually think that's how the media framed what Trump said.
Not how he specifically framed it
Maybe I'm wrong
foggy fern
No, his first statement on it was about Mexican rapists and how they're not sending their best
That was like his first campaign speech
shut vine
I just find a lot of people don't look at the full context video, they just look at snips.
That's mostly the media's fault.
He was talking about MS13
foggy fern
The media couldn't get enough of Trump back then, they ran everything he said in full as it happened because that shit was hilarious and made for good TV
shut vine
Yeah, he got free press because of their stupidity
foggy fern
He's not a very good communicator, he sounded like a parody of a racist candidate
cosmic badge
Corporate media may seem stupid but it's pretty calculated. Controversy is what generates viewership, viewers are what rake in ad revenue 😛
Trump has been great for leftist corporate media.
foggy fern
No, they thought he had no chance but his rants made for good TV
shut vine
If they were not stupid they would have not given him the free press is my point
They were trying to cash in yes
But ultimately they gave him way more coverage than they needed to.
foggy fern
Once it looked like he had any shot at all they didn't put him on as much and after the election they were more likely to read snippets of what he said instead of using using clips
Yeah, they gave him like $1b in free advertising
shut vine
Yeah, I know. They realized too late.
His platform was literally off the cuff and not politically correct.
They advertised the shit out of that for him.
foggy fern
"look at the monkey dance"
shut vine
You have to realize that sort of thing resonates with a lot of people who were fed up with politicians.
I don't think I necessarily like him, and thought he'd do a much worse job than he did tbh.
foggy fern
Sadly we still haven't learned that "throw all the bums out" pretty much always leads to something worse
You have to have a viable replacement whose qualifications are more than "not like them"
shut vine
The historic peace deals and unemployment numbers. He's launched efforts to legalize homosexuality in all countries around the globe.
He didn't start any wars.
foggy fern
Historic peace deals?
upper steppe
You have to have a viable replacement whose qualifications are more than "not like them"
@foggy fern I love and hate that that's how biden is doing so good... "He's not Trump"
Lmao
shut vine
He rolled back US involvement in endless wars via troop withdrawals.
foggy fern
afaik all he has there is a country willing to formalize a relationship with Isreal that in reality they've had for at least a decade
cosmic badge
Trump has actually been good for my self-employment income taxes 😛
upper steppe
Trump has actually been good for my self-employment income taxes 😛
@cosmic badge he's been great for my income and taxes as well
10/10 would vote again
Oh, I did yesterday ^_^
cosmic badge
I think it was a 2018 law but thanks to that I get a 20% deduction on self employment income
shut vine
Sudan and Israel, UAE and Bahrain, think one other.
foggy fern
My dad and uncle got surprise tax bills because their taxes didn't actually get lower, the witholding tables just got changed to take less out of their checks
They changed their W-9 for the next year to go to the next bracket and take more out
cosmic badge
Ouch, I actually ended up overpaying the year the law went into effect and got a decent refund
foggy fern
I don't think my dad and uncle combined make as much as I do so they're not upper class or something either
Not even middle class, that's me I guess
shut vine
He hasn't got the US into any more wars, first President in like 30 years.
foggy fern
That's debatable, depends on how you define war/conflict
shut vine
Well maybe Syria
I wouldn't consider that a war though I don't think, but I guess someone could argue that.
foggy fern
He definitely didn't stop droning people
shut vine
No he didn't, he did more than Obama's first term, a bit less than his second I think.
Obama would have done more in his second term, but they literally drained the stockpile.
foggy fern
I can't remember, did we actually do anything to help the Saudis in Yemen or just sell them the bombs?
shut vine
Oh I'm curious what people think about Obama/Flint. Particularly the Fahrenheit 11/9 footage.
That's it if you've not seen it, I didn't know about this until recently.
foggy fern
Flint was a failure that just kept failing up every level of government
shut vine
Hmm not sure?
The footage pretty much convinced me Obama was a sociopath.
He returned to Flint recently to tell them Trump hadn't taken COVID19 seriously too.
faint radish
so are dems gonna get the senate? its looking less likely
cosmic badge
In 2022, maybe 😛
faint radish
if dems don't get the senate, I really dgaf who wins presidency
shut vine
Looks like it may be 51-49 unless Tillis takes NC
Wait nvm, he's incumbent
Unless John James takes MI
Dems could flip GA or NC
foggy fern
I didn't say the Flint failure stopped at Obama 😛
I have no idea wtf he thought he was doing there
faint radish
glad prop 22 in CA passed
foggy fern
Maybe that was a part of Infrastructure Week
cosmic badge
I don't think the Uber/Lyft drivers are glad, though.
near glen
Do you guys think biden will take michigan?
cosmic badge
I ride Lyft quite a bit and a lot of drivers seemed happy with their situation compared to the contractor situation.
cosmic badge
Actually, is Prop 22 a rejection of a different law?
shut vine
You should see results by Wednesday Night MI time
cosmic badge
Yeah it is, nevermind then.
foggy fern
Flint's pipes did actually start getting replaced in 2016, they were hoping to be done sometimes this year
I suspect that got delayed
cosmic badge
Prop 22 is basically the people telling California to screw off with their forced employee law for gig workers. That is indeed a big win
faint radish
yes
cosmic badge
Uber/Lyft were threatening to shut down in CA over that.
faint radish
also, for prop 16, NO is leading... hope that stays or people in CA voted to bring back discrimination
shut vine
To me that's not really a fix, the residents should have had compensation
Well it's part of one
cosmic badge
Why is Prop 16 even on the ballot? wtf? lol
foggy fern
The gig economy is trying to tell "contractors" that while they may not have set hours they don't have control over what jobs they do or don't take, what those jobs pay, or where they're working
faint radish
dems in CA want to have "affirmative action" in the workplace
shut vine
Because, California can't give preferential treatment to minorities
It's unlawful currently, so they want to end that
faint radish
(why its called the "End Diversity Ban")
cosmic badge
lol
Discrimination is still discrimination. Affirmative action is discrimination, just sounds nicer.
shut vine
Because you can't have diversity quotas without it
faint radish
who could possible be against diversity? glad voters are smarter than that
foggy fern
The point of affirmative action is/was to provide a step up for people systemic racism was holding back so they could get to a point where they can compete on equal footing
Whether it does or ever could work is another discussion
faint radish
yeah, California, bastion of white supremacy with its democratic super majority
shut vine
Yeah, and without Prop 16, affirmative action is illegal if the university is not private run, technically.
foggy fern
The ban on it was also put in place via ballot measure in 1996 so it's not like the government decided it wasn't need anymore and got rid of it
It probably got sold as "end discrimination" back then
faint radish
well whatever happens in the elections, the polls were pretty darn wrong again....
the big senate races were polled to be a lot closer (mcconnel, graham, collins, and more)
foggy fern
Oh yeah, that's what all the morning shows are talking about
shut vine
It's because Trump gave birth to a new kind of voter. The "fuck you" vote. Those voters deliberately mislead pollsters.
foggy fern
They were more wrong than 2016 even after the polls got adjusted to try to adapt to 2016
shut vine
I suspect that trend will last at least a 4-5 election cycles.
foggy fern
Even the campaign internal polls were wrong
cosmic badge
rip senate, but good thing 20+ red seats are up for grabs in 2022 😛
foggy fern
They tried to model more people willing to troll pollsters or shy Trump voters by getting larger sample sizes and cross checking various types of polls and tweaking their expected demographics
shut vine
Trump should win PA based on mail in voter registrations.
I think he'll win by about 150K votes, maybe a bit less.
faint radish
dems really got trounced in FL
Miami-Dade support for Trump up massively from 4 years ago
shut vine
Actually it'll be closer than 150K. It's probably within 50K.
faint radish
if Biden was sanders, he would've performed much worse elsewhere I think
cosmic badge
Sanders was my guy 😦
foggy fern
cosmic badge
I bet you so many people who would've turned out for Sanders chose not to vote.
shut vine
Turnout in 2016 was highest since the 60's
Turnout in 2020 is higher
Based on percentage of eligible voters.
cosmic badge
Yes but turnout is higher on both sides
foggy fern
But the same people that voted for Trump in Florida also voted for $15 minimum wage
brisk cradle
@foggy fern Actually that take makes sense to me.
foggy fern
Biden didn't win them over but they clearly like some leftist ideas
shut vine
To be honest, if you look at it from a "we need more people to vote" viewpoint, Trump actually fired up both sides.
brisk cradle
Though if I were Bernie Sanders I would find that Florida would be an uphill battle. The attacks on "socialism" worked in Miami and if I were the Sanders campaign I would have had to write off Florida after seeing this.
foggy fern
Georgia is close enough it could theoretically come down to rejected absentee ballots
brisk cradle
Georgia is weird
foggy fern
Which it's possible to get unrejected in some cases
If PA is 50k votes it'll be down to rejected ballots too
shut vine
How many were rejected thus far?
brisk cradle
I live in Georgia and have a hard time thinking it's actually shifting to the left and is an actual battleground state
shut vine
Yeah PA should be within about 50K votes, unless the early voter stats are completely out.
foggy fern
I'm getting conflicting numbers, one says 2k rejected another says 8k
shut vine
Also it's evident they counted a lot of PA early votes already
foggy fern
In GA
shut vine
Roughly 25%
foggy fern
PA I think they said it was going to be at least 5 digits due to people not using the secrecy envelope
That's why Sarah Silverman did a handbra while telling you how to properly complete your ballot 😛
shut vine
All I hope is, whatever the result, the riots and violence ends.
near glen
I thought that's when it starts? ^^
shut vine
It's been a crazy bloody year for America.
Yeah... according to some that's when they start rioting.
Regardless of who wins....
brisk cradle
I expect the election to end with a Biden victory but very narrowly in the Rust Belt, Arizona, and maybe Georgia.
cosmic badge
I need some popcorn ready either way.
shut vine
Well, he only needs AZ (probably win), any small state, and 2 more.
brisk cradle
This wasn't the kind of night Democrats wanted but it was pretty decent for Republicans for sure.
shut vine
How so?
brisk cradle
If it was a good night for Democrats then they would've won Florida, and with that, the election could've been easily called for Biden.
shut vine
Yeah 64 remain
Dems net gained 1 in the Senate thus far
Still a chance Rep can claw that back
brisk cradle
Georgia's congressional delegation looks like it'll add a Democrat today: Carolyn Bouradeaux.
cosmic badge
Even if Trump loses, he will make a return in 2024 and defy the polls again D:
His ego will never let him be a 1 term president
shut vine
Well it could be worse. He could win this year, then Donald Trump 2024.
Jr obviously. 🙂
Also yeah that puts them down to +3.
brisk cradle
At this point though it comes down to Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan, plus the odds that Biden pulls off a narrow win in Georgia.
foggy fern
Looking like Biden might win WI by the same amount Trump won it in 2016
NBC is having talks about whether they can call it or not, it's super close
brisk cradle
Would be very fun to see my home state go blue.
shut vine
Yeah, WI will be close
plush crypt
just tell them about velocity and i'm sure they can't but follow you, Tux :>
shut vine
Too close to call
cosmic badge
MI is getting closer too
brisk cradle
@plush crypt Looks like I have a presidential campaign ready to go then.
plush crypt
brisk cradle
Who here wants to vote for me? 
shut vine
NC is probably Trump
brisk cradle
Since Biden can still win Georgia(!) my map could be wrong, but so far it has remained spot-on.
shut vine
Projections suggest Georgia is a 64% chance of Biden.
brisk cradle
That's NYT Upshot's projection
brisk cradle
But it sounds increasingly like the Democratic reliance on a suburban revolt against the president was barely enough to overcome him.
From 2021-2024 I anticipate Miami-Dade County will become the new Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan for reporters to visit.
Democrats are rightfully concerned that Florida is getting further and further out of grasp.
shut vine
It would also be very likely if things didn't change in a measurable way, that in 2024 he could get elected again after people forget 2020.
(assuming his loss, obv)
brisk cradle
I wouldn't be making a prediction about 2024 yet. Though I think Donald Trump will retire and go under a cloud of supcision in the most likely case of a Biden win.
shut vine
LOL
shut vine
I'm checking if this is true
near glen
Got that from a German site
faint radish
just sayin' if trump wins, he should be like "Ya know what Nancy and Chuck, I like the idea of packing the court, and pack it himself"
and he should also pardon hunter biden
trump shouldve pardoned clinton back in 2017 when he was inagurated
shut vine
I think an immediate pardon for Hunter would be relatively comedic.
faint radish
cause there's no accepting or declining a pardon.
shut vine
LOL
faint radish
pres does it, it happens
shut vine
You are diabolical
near glen
Tweet him, lol
shut vine
Get Hilary to the White House, get her on stage, in front of the press, to "mend bridges".
Then pardon her for a exhaustive list of crimes.
faint radish
itd be so bad. and yet so good
brisk cradle
Biden will probably try to make things go more smoothly by cutting a deal with Trump, no federal investigations in exchange for going silently. Though that would royally piss off progressives.
shut vine
I can't stop laughing, I hope if Biden wins he does that to Trump too, it'd be just as funny
Cutting what deal?
brisk cradle
Progressives were never hot on Biden anyway and if Biden does this they will not be happy
cosmic badge
Won't stop New York or any other state from going after him tho 😛
faint radish
people wont care after a bit, and with his ties to like everything, itll take many years for an investigation or whatever
and by then, people really wont care
brisk cradle
True, Biden wouldn't be able to exempt Trump from state-level investigations.
brisk cradle
Generally, his shady financial dealings.
cosmic badge
And if it happens any of these investigations uncover a crime, he'd actually be able to be charged.
shut vine
I mean.. they had all of that information in the Special counsel investigation.. investigating that more is a waste of tax payer money.
brisk cradle
Though I am pretty sure on January 19th Trump will pardon himself if Biden wins, but if he wins he'll pardon himself immediately.
cosmic badge
States gonna investigate what they want, but impeaching and convicting in the senate aren't quite the same as criminal charges.
If the Senate is unwilling to convict, a president is effectively above the law.
But without the presidency he'll be in a more vulnerable position to state and federal investigations.
shut vine
I agree, but the investigation turned up no evidence of wrongdoing. Not the same as exoneration, obviously.
But they spent years, and millions of dollars investigating it.
cosmic badge
I'm guessing anything he gets charged with would have to do with things that have occurred before his presidency.
shut vine
With full access to a broad number of peoples financials.
brisk cradle
I'm not talking Russian interference but rather about his finances.
There's a decent chance Trump is complicit in money laundering.
brisk cradle
Owning high-end hotels and casinos would make you very appetizing.
foggy fern
They apparently never looked at Trump's financials as a part of the Russia investigation, btw
glossy sandal
Wat u mean he loves making charities hes such a charitable guy no way
shut vine
Decent chance many politicians and people in the wealthy class are tbh, proving it is the hard part.
glossy sandal
/s
foggy fern
Even though financial crimes are what they ended up getting a couple people on
shut vine
Biden looks to have shady business dealings too realistically.
I'm certain the report cited the Trump financials, both personal and business.
foggy fern
Wait, I voted for Hunter Biden last night? Shit, how drunk was I?
brisk cradle
@shut vine Trump has been fighting for 5 years now to keep his tax returns a secret, and only very recently was a prosecutor allowed to see them
His tax returns will in all likelihood be the thing that contains evidence of financial crimes
shut vine
I mean I agree, but warrants are a bit more powerful than someone demanding them.
foggy fern
iirc they even said they didn't look at Trump financials for the investigation because they didn't think it was worth the fight
cosmic badge
I wonder if there's already a sealed indictment against Trump waiting for the moment he's out of office.
foggy fern
They knew they were running out of time and spent it on more fruitful areas
brisk cradle
It's possible that Cyrus Vance will file a case against Trump next year.
If Don Jr. becomes homeless as a result I will laugh my ass off. Not that it's a good thing but it's karma.
cosmic badge
lol
brisk cradle
Eh, I wouldn't worry. Wingnut welfare exists.
cosmic badge
I think there may be a sealed indictment and Cyrus Vance is waiting to cash that check.
brisk cradle
It pays better than real welfare too, because they can claim it's a "job"
foggy fern
Oh hey Oregon is officially the first state to end the War on Drugs
shut vine
Oh I was wrong:
Mueller said his report did not cover Trump’s business ties to Russia, but added that he could not say whether he obtained the president’s personal finances, including his tax returns, when questioned by Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi, D-Ill. He did say, however, no one asked him to not look into the president’s finances.
I'm curious what the last part means, but, alas I am taking my leave
foggy fern
For example in PA, Trump currently has an 11 pt lead but there are 25% votes to be counted. So far counted mail in votes have gone 78.4 to Biden and 20.7 to Trump. If this trend continues Biden can win PA by +163,000 votes. The mail in votes from rural counties may lessen this number or keep Trump's lead. Hard to tell.
brisk cradle
I think it's likely Biden wins PA based on mail-in voting alone
Biden has a lead in Wisconsin now
As for Michigan it will probably flip to Democrats.
So I may well be spot on with the question mark of Georgia, where Biden can fit in a squeaker.
Additionally, in NC there may be ballots that arrive late. Though I don't think that's going to be enough for Biden to win it.
foggy fern
If he gets GA too I was wrong on 3 states but I expected it on 2 of them, assuming I'm still remembering my map after being wake over 24 hours...
Otherwise it's 4 and 2/3
If NC went Biden too that'd put my map back on track but I don't see it happening
brisk cradle
So far I've managed to call it correctly on every state that's been called by AP
I may be wrong about Georgia: I considered it to be a likely narrow Trump victory, though a Biden one is still possible.
foggy fern
GA might not have had as many outstanding votes as they thought
brisk cradle
But remember that Atlanta vote counting has yet to finish.
foggy fern
NBC data appears to be showing 99% in for those counties
But the state percentage hasn't changed and they got no new votes so...
Either those counties really are done and they didn't get as many votes as they thought or their software broke
brisk cradle
Fulton County is now restarting counting, a water mains leaked and that resulted in a delay in counting
Georgia isn't over until Fulton counts their votes, and those are going to go overwhelmingly to Biden anyway
foggy fern
Steve Kornacki went to go sort things out with his producer on Georgia
Is the board wrong? Is the database wrong? Is the data valid? etc
brisk cradle
But yeah, the Biden camp was comparing 2020 to 2012, and that sounds about right. Just flip Florida and Ohio red and Arizona blue and you have my map.
The problem is that losing Florida forecloses an easy path to the presidency. If Biden won Florida it is very likely that race would get called for Biden more quickly.
The jury's still out so I'll repeat my prediction: Biden still wins the presidency by winning all the remaining Rust Belt states and Arizona. He will probably still lose Georgia though there's the off chance of a tiny win for him there.
If I'm in the Biden camp I would better hope Georgia comes through for you.
In that case Biden wins 306 EVs, 2 more than the last time Trump won in '16
In addition Georgia will partially offset the Florida loss.
In addition, Maine RCV may end up giving Sara Gideon a win.
Oh, I just checked Montana. Yeah, Democrats didn't win it. Their last hope of winning Senate control is in Georgia now - Ossoff has to win tonight, then Warnock has to win January 5th.
Then VP Kamala Harris will need to break ties.
So then we have a very fragile Democratic majority in the Senate.
faint radish
dont think the dem will win in the runoff... vast majority of the votes went to both the R candidates
brisk cradle
Also they have to hope Maine suddenly breaks for Gideon.
Doing so takes a bit less pressure off Georgia.
And if they somehow manage to win both Georgia Senate seats and Maine, then Democrats will have a 51-49 majority in the Senate
Alright, so what does 2020 tell us? Arizona is becoming more blue, Florida is getting redder, North Carolina and Georgia look like they'll take the position of Florida this time around, Biden's attempt to win back the working class man in Scranton may let him eke out a small victory in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania but Ohio is toast.
But probably most importantly, 2020 doesn't look anything like 2018 😛
And 2018 disappointed more than a few Democrats, although it was still a VERY good year for them.
If anything riding the Trump coattails may have been a good thing for some Republicans.
So I think Biden's comparison of 2020 with 2012 is pretty spot on, even if the states that give him his victory have changed a little.
brisk cradle
Basically the 2020 story is all about how Democrats blew it with Cuban-American voters.
Republicans saw an opening and swooped on in.
cosmic badge
But wait, I thought all Hispanic voters are Democrats! 😛
brisk cradle
Not all Hispanic voters vote Democratic my friend
cosmic badge
Yeah just being sarcastic, there's a big ideological difference between Mexican-Americans and Cuban-Americans
brisk cradle
If Democrats don't fix their problems with Cuban-American voters, and fast, then Florida is totally lost to them
cosmic badge
Biden got the big S word attached to him repeatedly, not something Cuban-Americans want to hear
brisk cradle
In general the GOP has made major in-roads with Latinx voters simply by talking to them.
cosmic badge
Well yeah, there's a large religious/traditional values segment of Latinx voters.
brisk cradle
It's likely the suburban revolt wins Biden the election but Biden's mandate is going to be about as weak as Trump's.
weary obsidian
this is the interesting part for NC and GA:
most of the remaining votes is dem
well for NC but GA has some large percents
brisk cradle
Yeah, and that's why Biden still has a shot at winning Georgia based on mail-in voting.
fast flame
i actually think biden may win georgia
alot of the remaining votes are in dekalb, fulton and other blue counties.
weary obsidian
its mostly mail in ballots too, which you know trump supporters burned
if it comes down to north carolina of all places flipping blue giving biden the win, ill have a drink in celebration
near glen
Biden is ahead in michigan now, wouldn't wisconsin, michigan and nevada be enough for a win?
sweet canyon
Will be an interesting next couple days.
plush crypt
if he loses PA, he can also get NV + any 2 of GA, WI & MI
faint radish
yeah, big relief senate isn't changing. if senate stays with Rs, totally fine w/biden
weary obsidian
well we kind of need some work to undo trumps BS you know.
i wonder if republicans would accept a tax cut for the poor
because thats something biden REALLY needs to do, is to cancel Trump's time bomb on the poor
and make it really clear to the poor that Trump put that time bomb in there
you know if rethuglicans are the reason nothing happens, thats not gonna influence left votes against the left. but hopefully we do challenge him and get someone better if hes still president
fast flame
these days, if a law doesn't make it through, i automatically assume it's mitch mcconnells fault.
cosmic badge
McConnell is definitely the Republican MVP of the last two presidencies
Well, the last one and current one
Hate the game, but respect the player 😛
brisk cradle
Biden just took the lead in Michigan.
fast flame
honestly one of the biggest problems facing the democratic party as of now is the fact that republicans no longer have any respect for morals or precedents.
faint radish
https://twitter.com/CharlesMBlow/status/1323975456668979200 trump did better in like all demographics except white men...
must be white supremacy 😛
brisk cradle
I think I am much more confident that Biden will win if he is doing better in Michigan
cosmic badge
Yeah, Republicans are fine with playing dirty. If the obstruction they carried out in the Senate over the past 8 years is acceptable then so is using legislature to "pack" the courts (which is really just expanding seats and confirming new justices)
But the voters will decide that.
brisk cradle
Pennsylvania is still a big question mark, but we will probably know who won Pennsylvania this week for sure.
I think it will also be a narrow Biden victory.
weary obsidian
PA has note saying itll be up to Friday for full results
fast flame
biden doesnt necessarily need pa tho. if he can get MI and Wisconsin as well as nv then he wins
weary obsidian
but yeah i seriously dont get the black voters voting for trump. But I guess they fall into the same category as poor people voting for him
brisk cradle
If Biden loses Nevada it doesn't matter now, since the Rust Belt can carry him, but it's a red flag for Democrats, they are losing Latinx voters hardcore.
faint radish
trumps LGBT support is double what it was in 2016 as well
fast flame
where are you seeing this?
cosmic badge
Hm, how was that being measured?
fast flame
somehow i doubt that's true
cosmic badge
What was the methodology on that
opaque prairie
seeing all these minority numbers going up just means that the propaganda machine works, which is terrifying in itself
plush crypt
thats very sad, jake
brisk cradle
So in the aftermath of 2020 I think Democrats will need to really take a hard look at Latinx voters and try to get them back.
plush crypt
I look at the US in fear as an LGBT person lol
opaque prairie
but then again, those ratios are skewed by mail in, so not sure how accurate it can be
plush crypt
wat
opaque prairie
except thats explicitly not true
brisk cradle
The suburban revolt will let Biden win this year, but I do not think they will be kind to Democrats in 2022 or 2024.
faint radish
yeah, 14% of LGBT went from trump in 2016, 28% in 2020
hallow shoal
If biden does win this year, it'll definitely be hard next election
cosmic badge
Biden is just barely pulling a win here, looks like. If not for COVID, I think he would've lost
faint radish
hispanic rose slightly from 29 to 32 for trump
weary obsidian
i just hope the dnc will finally learn they gotta stop running weak candidates
plush crypt
https://transequality.org/the-discrimination-administration
he did nothing bad against lgbt folks btw. this is just for trans folks.
faint radish
black rose by a third from 8% to 12% for trump
brisk cradle
I agree. COVID may have swung the election towards Biden, but otherwise Trump made major in-roads among Democratic constituencies and that's a big deal.
faint radish
yeah, only demographic that dropped support for trump is white men
opaque prairie
i actually think covid did more damage to biden than good
cosmic badge
I agree, no more mandate than Trump had
brisk cradle
This is actually very much going the way I expected it to go.
opaque prairie
i think people who usually stayed out of politics, but were suddenly forced into it due to the pandemic, got snagged by alot of the misinformation
brisk cradle
Democrats have some damage control to do in the next few years. Latinx moving away from Trump is a big deal, the attacks on socialism are working.
cosmic badge
I wonder if that means Bernie never had a chance among the Latinx voters
faint radish
trump gained support among white women even (52 -> 55)
brisk cradle
Yeah, I think so too.
opaque prairie
i think we also need to remember how mail in voting skews exit polls
brisk cradle
If Bernie was the nominee I would have expected a big victory for Trump in Florida and a smaller but still big victory in Arizona
fast flame
yeah bernie would have absolutely lost if this election comes down to latinx votes
faint radish
exit polling isnt just people who showed up
they call people as well
so it should take into account mail in
opaque prairie
oh okay i wasnt sure
fast flame
but it is going to be disproportionately in person
brisk cradle
He could even lose Nevada which would really sting for Democrats as Nevada was a Clinton state in 2016.
I wouldn't anticipate a McGovern-style loss ala 1972 but I think it'd a rerun of the 2016 election except the Democratic nominee would be even less popular.
faint radish
trump lost some support with the <45 crowd, but picked up support >=45
opaque prairie
nevada would sting but i dont think it will happen, but also michigan has widened to .7%
brisk cradle
That means Trump could've won and added New Mexico and Nevada to his list
fast flame
i really wanted a 1984 level blowout but alas
brisk cradle
And Trump would have won the popular vote, too.
fast flame
it's weird that biden struggled with latinx voters but won NM so big
cosmic badge
Is there a way for Trump to still win the pop vote but lose the EV?
opaque prairie
no
opaque prairie
i mean in theory yeah, practially no
cosmic badge
Just thought it would be funny
fast flame
everyone knew that the second cali hit the pop vote would swing blue
brisk cradle
Though if that did happen, Democrats would suddenly find new willing partners for the NPVIC.
brisk cradle
The NPVIC would probably get ratified easily, since Republicans would get on board with it
opaque prairie
the fact that its an option is scary
cosmic badge
2016 saw a record number of faithless electors didnt it
opaque prairie
also dems took an ohio supreme court seat, so that should reduce gerrymandering there
cosmic badge
Although there had been a combined total of 155 instances of individual electors voting faithlessly prior to 2016 in over two centuries of previous US presidential elections, 2016 was the first election in over a hundred years in which multiple electors worked to alter the result of the election.
So not a record, but certainly a unique situation in modern history
fast flame
nah it's ok id rather forget 2020 too
cosmic badge
i dunno if i'd rather be in 2018 or a post-Trump 2021+
on one hand, Trump is president, but no covid 😛
brisk cradle
If you're a Democrat, you probably want to be in 2018 as the political environment was very Democratic
fast flame
can we just go back to 2012 pls
brisk cradle
This year it's mildly Democratic.
lethal rose
Our government just decided to kill over a million minks due to a mutated covid strand
Hopefully i can get some cheap mink slippers then
fast flame
yikess
brisk cradle
Of course if you're a Democrat you want to be back in 2008 instead.
fast flame
yes pls