Don't think it was even close
#politics
shut vine
Yeah 58 to 37 with 91 in.
Thanks btw, not sure why the buttons vanished
1.9M BIden to 1.6M Trump
So that's what I saw before, same site I'm seeing 1.4M to 1.5M respectively.
For Virginia.
foggy fern
AP rolled their numbers back?
Or Google rolled back the numbers they report from AP
NYT has 1.8m to 1.6m
upper steppe
Sorry I'm late, gotta rep my boy, trump \o/
brisk cradle
Remember, as you see Wisconsin results come in, that in many jurisdictions the absentee ballots wonβt be counted and reported until ALL the absentee ballots are counted.
So I think Biden can make up his current deficit in Wisconsin
Probably a nail-biter, but it seems like he can do it.
foggy fern
Governor apparently said they don't expect results until sometime tomorrow, mayor of Milwaukee hopes to have theirs done around 5am
shut vine
Probably, Democrats voted roughly 4 times by mail for every 3 Republicans.
smoky hedge
Are we likely to see much more counting before tomorrow?
Seems stuff has slowed down a lot
foggy fern
Sure, some places will keep counting until it's done, some will have gone home already, some will go home around 2am
iirc PA most places plan to keep going until 2am then come back tomorrow, although most of them also said they're only doing in person votes tonight so if they wrap those up I guess they'd head out early
smoky hedge
is there a list of what each place is doing?
Mostly wondering about Michigan, Georgia, and North Carolina
And Florida I guess
foggy fern
NC we might not know for a week or two if it stays this close
shut vine
Florida is very unlikely to go blue, Biden would have to get a substantial majority of all remaining votes to even catch up.
smoky hedge
Yeah I'm mostly just waiting for stuff to be called so I can update my 538 map
foggy fern
That's my second "probably wrong" pick
sand shale
wtf is a 538 map
smoky hedge
It's a map you get to enter data in yourself π
It's nice because you get your own neat little map π
sand shale
and what is the point in that
smoky hedge
You get your own neat little map π
sand shale
ok
shut vine
You get to pick your fictional President.
smoky hedge
also you can work out probabilities based on current states
Eg, I can see what the probabilities would be if one of the states were called as X
shut vine
Georgia looks likely red
brisk cradle
"Hawaii is too early to call" is a meme
shut vine
And yeah NC/MI are either too close or too early.
brisk cradle
It's going to go to Biden
shut vine
Hawaii?
brisk cradle
yes
shut vine
Yea lol
dusky raft
Im not surprised with hawaii, its been democrat for a long time
brisk cradle
Basically this is going to boil down to MI/WI/PA and maybe Georgia and North Carolina
foggy fern
Filling in all the decided states plus Florida on 538 updates their prediction to 73% chance for Biden
Before the election started it was a 90% chance
brisk cradle
I think it's a given that Biden wins Arizona.
CNN projects Trump wins Ohio.
My map still stands strong.
foggy fern
NBC has now called Virginia for Biden too, they hadn't yet
Strange, 538 seems to suggest they predict Trump has a better shot at Arizona but when I mark it as a Biden win his chances go down
They go down the same amount when I say Trump wins it
I think their website is broken
Oh wait it just took forever to update, marking Arizona for Biden moves him up to an 89% chance to win
dusky raft
virginia is in an interesting position, who knows when mail in ballots are processed there, but it appears that most heavy blue areas are done
shut vine
Arizona is possible Trump but unlikely, ~670K to count, and a 200K lead.
oak cloak
yeah, with AZ in biden looks good, if NC were to sneak in it's basically guaranteed
foggy fern
Georgia will not be called tonight
dusky raft
its just the red leaning areas
foggy fern
Most of the votes outstanding are in Atlanta and they've gone home for the night
dusky raft
thats just odd
foggy fern
Apparently they had a water line break
dusky raft
why is it the city polling stations going home for the night?
oak cloak
because it's 1AM there
foggy fern
Dunno if that's why they stopped or if that's why they were further behind other counties
It's midnight there
oak cloak
oh is it midnight
dusky raft
yeah
oak cloak
always get my timezones wrong
restive seal
Can confirm, east coast is midnight now.
foggy fern
Nope, they're eastern time, it's midnight
oak cloak
can someone ELI5 why nevada has no data?
smoky hedge
They pushed back close of polls by an hour
oak cloak
oh gotcha
smoky hedge
(In a single county, but the one that contains Vegas so probably a big one)
faint radish
I think trump campaign filed a lawsuit for that pushback
shut vine
Uh.. they can't do that..
faint radish
Filed a lawsuit asking for it*
opaque prairie
push back closing of polls..? yeah they can
foggy fern
The Republican party is the one that got the court order to keep the polls open an extra hour
shut vine
Equal Protection clause of the 14th Amendment
All counties have to abide by the same rules
opaque prairie
states control the elections
faint radish
That one county had issues at the beginning of the day.
shut vine
Ahhh
faint radish
So judge said it can stay open for another hour
foggy fern
That seems to happen a lot in Las Vegas
shut vine
They opened an hour later?
faint radish
Or started processing people an hour late or something
Something caused a delayed start
shut vine
Yeah okay, if that holds true it's fine, if they just decided to leave it open another hour, that's a big issue
dusky raft
oh, we might see arizona call it period tonight
faint radish
Nah, there was a legit reason.
dusky raft
they dont have extensions for absentee
if trump gets an edge, that might be it
and he did get a boost
foggy fern
Looks like Biden is going to get NE-2
When I mark him as getting that on 538 he goes up to 96%
shut vine
NE-2?
foggy fern
Nebraska splits up their EVs
2 for the statewide vote and one for each congressional district
NE-2 is basically Omaha
shut vine
Ah okay, I'm not American so don't know all the state abbreviations, that's one I didn't know π
foggy fern
I lived in Omaha for a few years and as an Iowan I'm required to hate Nebraska so I'm cheering on NE-2 and hope the rest falls in a sinkhole or something π
shut vine
LOL
dusky raft
hm, nevada hasnt called yet, any updates on that?
shut vine
TX is a +6 for Trump so far.
opaque prairie
read up Zyp
shut vine
NV had some kind of delay, one county pushed back 1 hour or something.
They definitely did, not sure where the error occurred
They've done it twice
foggy fern
Guess the pundits were right, looking like this is going to come down to PA
shut vine
Biden's home state right?
tough cedar
isn't that vermont?
foggy fern
Yeah, polling had it at Biden +6
opaque prairie
im also waiting on MI and WI... but not holding my breath on those
tough cedar
oh nope i was thinking of someone else
foggy fern
Biden was born in Scranton, PA but his dad lost his job and they moved across the border to Delaware
opaque prairie
yeah bernie was vermont
shut vine
Yeah he was a Delaware Senator at the age of 29-30 if member serves me right.
foggy fern
Almost resigned before he was even sworn in
shut vine
He turned 30 a few days before the first Congress of the year he was elected.
There was a whole sissy fit about it
foggy fern
A little over a month after he won the election his wife and daughter died in a car accident and his sons were put in the hospital
shut vine
Personally if they're turning 30 within the year they are elected it's good enough
Ah yeah there was that too
I forgot he was married before
foggy fern
He turned 30 like 2 weeks after the election
shut vine
Yeah, and about 4 weeks before he was sworn in I think.
foggy fern
He was sworn in in a hospital because Beau was still there after a month
6 weeks I think
opaque prairie
oop called ohio for trump
shut vine
Oh, that's kinda a nice way to be sworn in
foggy fern
November 20, they're sworn in the first week of January, right?
opaque prairie
yep
shut vine
Yea, should have been within 7 days of the 1st.
opaque prairie
man... if biden wins PA, Az and Nv... its 270-268
foggy fern
Insanely he was only the 6th youngest senator
Is that count giving Biden all of Maine's votes and Trump all of Nebraska's?
opaque prairie
oh crap thats giving trump all of both
shut vine
Yeah there have been 2 Senators that were 28, think a few that were 29.
opaque prairie
cant do math sorry
foggy fern
Biden is probably getting 1 of Nebraska's and Trump might/probably get one of Maine's
opaque prairie
sounds right to me
opaque prairie
i mean
brisk cradle
I should go to bed. But so far my map is holding up pretty well.
opaque prairie
do you see it going biden
brisk cradle
Montana went for Trump.
opaque prairie
yeah i should probably sleep too
shut vine
I don't, but why wouldn't they call it earlier?
opaque prairie
wat
shut vine
Oh well
opaque prairie
arent you complaining about calling it early?
brisk cradle
The Senate race is too close to call, Bullock's in the lead and might win.
opaque prairie
you wanted it earlier?
shut vine
It was only called like a minute ago. It seems odd that with the numbers currently to call it.
brisk cradle
If Bullock wins in Montana that will be an important part of the Senate control puzzle solved for the Dems.
shut vine
If it was an unsure victory.
opaque prairie
yeah dems are in a bit of a tight spot senate wise rn. i think theyre going to be up 2 at the end of the day
shut vine
Just seems odd, but that's fine.
foggy fern
Montana was Trump +5 in polls
brisk cradle
Then it will probably be all eyes on Georgia.
foggy fern
Colorado senate race already called
shut vine
Yeah it was a flip.
faint radish
almost all of the senate vote in Montana from the big counties has been counted
brisk cradle
Democrats will probably win the Senate races in Arizona, Colorado, and Montana. Republicans secured Alabama. So Georgia is on the minds of Republicans and Democrats.
opaque prairie
possible they grab maine... i doubt it tho
shut vine
Montana is way more likely. Same with Arizona.
foggy fern
Remember Maine is ranked choice voting, pretty much all the Savage votes are going to move to Gideon
shut vine
Oh wait, I misread Maine the wrong way.
brisk cradle
But even with that, Gideon isn't likely to win. Yet.
opaque prairie
still possible
foggy fern
Polling had her at 51% if you factor in the people who said Savage was 1st pick and Gideon was 2nd
opaque prairie
i give it a couple days before we know
foggy fern
So it'll be close
brisk cradle
Iowa called for Trump.
foggy fern
Disappointing but not unexpected
brisk cradle
Democrats are keeping the open New Mexico senate seat.
foggy fern
We are home to Steve "what's wrong with white supremacy?" King
foggy fern
NBC called MN for Biden and FL for Trump
Oh wait no they said MN is still to early but Biden is clearly leading
foggy fern
eww, marking MN for Biden makes my 538 map show 6 simulations where it's a tie
(I unmarked NE-2 for now)
brisk cradle
In all likelihood it seems like Arizona will flip to Biden. Then Biden has to win all the Rust Belt states or hope he manages to win in Georgia or North Carolina. And I don't see those happening.
brisk cradle
I think Biden will still win the presidency but it'll be a while before we know.
foggy fern
Especially if the independent absentees go the same way the in person ones did (according to exit polls)
The exit polls for independents are why some outlets are fairly confident AZ is Biden
tough cedar
i was wondering how biden had a chance to win PA but it's all the mail in ballots
so ok
foggy fern
They still have 40% of the vote to count
shut vine
Yeah PA has estimated 2.6M left to count.
foggy fern
And Dems had a 1 million advantage in absentee ballots
shut vine
With Biden at 1.8M and Trump at 2.5M that still has room.
foggy fern
As far as party affiliation
foggy fern
1.6m Democrat, 586k Republican, and 260k independent
Those ballots are still mostly/entirely uncounted so far in PA
brisk cradle
I need to go to bed
I think Trump will win Georgia but narrowly again, probably less than his '16 margin.
CNN projects Trump wins Iowa. Though AP called it earlier.
foggy fern
If Biden were to flip Georgia or North Carolina it's not numerically impossible for Trump to win but it's all over but the screaming
brisk cradle
My projections:
- GA/NC goes to Trump, but barely (margins worse than '16)
- WI/MI will eventually go to Biden but not a comfortable lead
- PA will go Biden, perhaps a better lead than WI/MI
- NV is a comfortable Biden win
Oh, and Alaska is won by Trump but what did we expect?
foggy fern
Probably not going to happen though, means I'll be 3 for 3 on my "probably wrong" picks even though I thought Trump would only get 1 or 2 of them
brisk cradle
Trump made a ton of noise about flipping Nevada, but I don't think it'll happen. If he failed to flip New Mexico he's not going to be able to flip Nevada either.
Anyway, I have college in the morning and I've spent too much time on the election. Good night.
foggy fern
Oh, Biden doesn't actually need PA
If he wins AZ, WI, MI, ME (except ME-2), and NE-2 he has 270
Those are all pretty likely to happen, ME-2 and NE-2 are the tossups but if they both go the other way it doesn't change anything
Oh, I forgot to give him NV in that list
feral sparrow
Iβm making a the call that trump will win this election, but In also going to bed
dusky raft
I think arizona will flip
feral sparrow
No point speculating when I can skip time by sleeping
foggy fern
That would also make it almost certain @brisk cradle got his map right too since Biden winning PA too would match his map exactly
AZ will flip as in Biden wins it? That's what I'm guessing too
dusky raft
no
foggy fern
If Trump wins it that's not a flip
dusky raft
as in trump
upper steppe
No point speculating when I can skip time by sleeping
@feral sparrow
dusky raft
at the moment, trump is slowly creeping up
biden's count has kind of stayed where it is
and the major population centers of AZ have a 0% report in
foggy fern
He is creeping up so it'll be close but unless absentee independents voted very differently from in person independents he can't make up the difference
dusky raft
which maybe an input error
foggy fern
If anything I'd think the absentee independents would be more likely to go for Biden, not for Trump
Than the in person ones, I mean
brisk cradle
If Trump wins NV then Democrats would be having a really bad night. But Iβm seeing very indication that tonight was a lot better for the GOP than they couldβve hoped
foggy fern
NYT finally called MN for Biden too
near glen
Is the White House already burning?
brisk cradle
Itβll be bad but itβs not going to be too bad
near glen
Or do I need to come back in a couple of hours?
dusky raft
I think what we see is absentee ballots, since I was watching a live broadcast from someone in az saying polling stations were open when they were calling in the the current counts about 2-3 hours ago
foggy fern
The White House has a giant fence around it, including around the square that isn't usually considered a part of the White House where Trump gassed a bunch of people for a photo op
dusky raft
oh yeah, trump is getting larger gains than biden in az
looks like at least another 150k votes in az to flip in trumps favor
shut vine
Think he'll win Wisconsin too
foggy fern
Looks like Trump will beat my +5 estimate for Texas
brisk cradle
It is not a total drubbing for them and shows that Trumpism remains a potent force
dusky raft
and I did look up that mail in and absentee are to be in on election day in az
shut vine
Yeah, he's +6 right now right?
shut vine
Still a 3 point drop.
foggy fern
3.5 points better for Dems than 2016, 3.5 points worse than 2018
They split the difference
oak cloak
imagine unironically voting for and supporting Trump
foggy fern
Imagine living in Texas π
oak cloak
Imagine seeing how trump has handled the past year and thinking "yeah, that's my guy"
wraith grail
imagine being able to have opinions π¦
foggy fern
Northern Texas might be better but Austin, Dallas, and especially Houston were hot as fuck
Although one of the times I was in Dallas it was snowing, that was hilarious
shut vine
It snowed in Houston a few years back.
brisk cradle
So in 2024 I am very sure Trumpism will probably prevail and the old wings of the party will fade away
upper steppe
It snows in Houston every few years
foggy fern
There was a helicopter looking at a bit of off ramp that had ice on it, all you had to do is coast down the ramp and you were fine but every single car slammed on the brakes and spun in to the wall or another car
brisk cradle
Prevail in the primaries ofc
foggy fern
I spent the morning laughing my ass off watching that
But yeah, my one time in Houston probably should have warned me off of living in Miami but nope, decided to do it anyway
So humid
Senate hasn't changed in hours
1 flip each
shut vine
Yea Senate is basically even, 9 remaining seats and 46R 45D
foggy fern
NE-2 says they have one last batch of in person votes to count, if it's similar to the last 2 updates Biden wins it
It's looking like Georgia will have 2 runoff elections in January that will decide the Senate
Perdue might stay above 50% in his race though
shut vine
House both parties have flipped two
foggy fern
Wasn't he one of the ones that got the confidential briefing in January on how bad COVID was going to be and went out and bought stock?
shut vine
You should probably look more into that, my understanding is it wasn't as clear cut, and likely a misunderstanding of third hand information.
foggy fern
Tillis is up by 97k, 94% reported still
Oh Perdue was the one that made fun of Harris's name, that's right
Perdue, Loeffler, and Burr look like they made stock trades based on the briefing but the first two could have been from public data so only Burr is still being investigated
oak cloak
NYT finally decided to call texas
foggy fern
Inhofe and Feinstein were a part of the original reporting on it but apparently weren't seriously investigated because they don't control their stock portfolio
foggy fern
Ah, and Burr's continued investigation isn't even for the COVID stuff, they discovered another instance where he apparently abused insider knowledge on Trump's upcoming tariff exceptions and sold all their stock in a company that would be harmed by the extra competition that would create
sanction exceptions, rather
foggy fern
NBC called NE-2 for Biden
That's a flip, Obama got it in 2008 but not 2012 and Trump got it in 2016
oak cloak
538 says that's 85% for bden
foggy fern
That's also NBC's first projected flip LUL
near glen
Oh I have a serious question for once: didn't everybody before said it will take weeks to count all votes? Why are there predictions you guys seem to take serious now already?
oak cloak
if we win PA then that all but guarantees biden wins
foggy fern
If the race comes down to PA we might not know for a week or so
oak cloak
it would take a few days, not weeks
foggy fern
If Biden wins it without PA we'll probably know tomorrow
oak cloak
yeah
PA has really backwards rules on when you can count
@near glen in reality the election counting continues until everything is counted and the EC votes in december
elder portal
Twitter Grafana dashboard thing with sentiment analysis available
https://stats.egg82.ninja/d/X2eIbGdMz/twitter?orgId=1
yay fun times
oak cloak
technically the actual election doesn't take place until then
near glen
Oh so that's why inauguration is always so late
foggy fern
Trump is apparently about to give a statement from the East Room in the White House (eww) to a crowd that is indoors (ugh)
dusky raft
I just noticed that trump doesnt need PA or AZ to win
foggy fern
Only if you actually think Trump can win WI and MI
dusky raft
yes
oak cloak
if we win MI, WI, and NV we can still technically lose, but only if trump wins PA
foggy fern
Polls had MN, MI, and WI all Biden +8 and MN has already been called for Biden
dusky raft
michigan also needs to recieve mail ins yesterday, so all the votes should be in
foggy fern
Demon are you counting NE-2 and ME for Biden in that scenario?
rose heron
Such horrible presidents
foggy fern
Ah
oak cloak
I was getting really fucking worried, numbers weren't lining up
foggy fern
NBC finally called MN for Biden too
dusky raft
but yeah, im just saying if the current color codes stick, trump wins a narrow victory
oak cloak
So assuming biden wins AZ that should seal it if all goes well
foggy fern
The only uncalled race I have marked on this map is AZ for Biden https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-biden-election-map/#OH:1,CA:0,OR:0,WA:0,ID:1,WY:1,UT:1,CO:0,NM:0,OK:1,KS:1,NE:1,SD:1,ND:1,MO:1,AR:1,LA:1,MS:1,AL:1,TN:1,KY:1,IN:1,WV:1,SC:1,VA:0,MD:0,NJ:0,DE:0,NY:0,VT:0,NH:0,MA:0,CT:0,DC:0,RI:0,IL:0,HI:0,MT:1,IA:1,AZ:0,FL:1,MN:0,TX:1,N2:0
Shows Biden at 96% chance to win
foggy fern
Apparently Fox is the one that called Arizona for Biden earlier, dunno if they still have it that way or not
Arizona is projected to have legalized weed on this ballot too
Not just legal to smoke for 21+, you can grow your own plants at home too
oak cloak
okay I think I can go to sleep feeling a little better
dusky raft
it should be legal, I dont know why republicans are still dragging their heels on canabis usage
foggy fern
If Trump did win WI and MI the election would come down to North Carolina which is close enough it might actually take a couple weeks to sort out
near glen
another question, looking at a map by abc now, they list NEB in stripes, saying one vote for biden, how does that work?
dusky raft
yeah, just the mail in ballots
near glen
I thought EC means the winner takes it all
foggy fern
Nebraska and Maine split their votes
dusky raft
I swear this after election day mail in voting is going to cause headaches
foggy fern
2 for the statewide winner and one per congressional district
dusky raft
they should have recieved the ballots either before or on election day
near glen
ah
asking why wouldn't make sense, right? π
or why not everybody does it that way
foggy fern
I think a state could still get away with having their votes decided by coin toss and not even having an election
dusky raft
A state can decide to go with whatever and ignore the will of the people
foggy fern
So they get a lot of leeway on how to decide how the election works
shut vine
It actually happened in Texas in 2016.
Think that was the congressional district though
dusky raft
which is why I see the national popular vote compact when enacted would just start sinking
shut vine
The EC member voted against the district.
dusky raft
because it is going to be a shitshow
foggy fern
Virginia had control of the state congress decided by coin toss in a recent election
oak cloak
states determine how their electors vote
states are free to determine it in any way they life
but if a state says an elector must vote one way, they must follow
oak cloak
yes that is what I'm referring to
dusky raft
well no, when they hit DC, they can do whatever the fuck they want if they feel like prison time or a fine is a good tradeoff
oak cloak
if the state has a law that a random 5 year old chosen off the street decides how the electors vote, the electors for that state must vote accordingly
rose heron
Yes, the supreme court also has somewhat confirmed the legality of such laws
shut vine
Only 33 states have laws against faithless electors.
dusky raft
I dont believe the vote can be revoked once casted either
so the law is just punishment
shut vine
Only Colorado, Michigan and.. one other state void the vote.
oak cloak
@near glen EC votes are given to states based on congressional representation, 1 for each house rep and 1 for each senator. All states have 2 senators so they all have at least 3 EC votes (at least 1 rep, 2 senator). Maine and Nebraska distribute their EC votes based on the electoral districts, so the districts for each rep EC vote, and then 2 state-wide (since senators represent the whole state)
shut vine
Nah, you can void the vote.
foggy fern
Gap in Georgia is narrowing, I guess either some of the counties around Atlanta are still going or it took some time to get from the county to the state to the news
oak cloak
idk if that makes any sense to a german, but hope that helps
shut vine
Oh wow, Georgia did really narrow.
shut vine
120K votes
foggy fern
Was over 300k before that last update
shut vine
Yea.
oak cloak
@near glen here actually, just watch this video https://youtu.be/ajavsMbCapY
near glen
120k in NC?
near glen
hey this is work time and I just woke up
foggy fern
NC is looking like we won't know for a long while
near glen
NC and GA are so important since they are close and got 16 votes each, right?
foggy fern
Might get enough of the vote in tomorrow to call it but if not NC is going to be a long one
foggy fern
If Trump loses NC or GA he isn't numerically eliminated but it's basically all over but the screaming
shut vine
If either one wins both it's a very close victory
oak cloak
Bullock lost
Looks like senate stays red
guess NC is still a toss up for senate as well
dusky raft
might be just status quo
foggy fern
Guess we'll have to wait until 2022 to split up the 9th District
spiral basin
Apparently SD has a vote to legalize marijuana:
https://www.businessinsider.com/south-dakota-constitutional-amendment-live-vote-count-results-2020
What I see shows it is apparently 52-48 70% reporting
foggy fern
Too soon to tell but definitely not looking as good for Democrats as polling predicted, at least
oak cloak
doesn't take much imagination, we saw it for 6 of the 8 years obama was in office
foggy fern
Trump has an indoor event in the White House with no masks on the people I could see ears or faces of and fairly tightly packed in
near glen
He doesn't want to go without infecting everybody
oak cloak
it's technically possible for the senate to turn blue if AZ, MI, GA, NC, and ME all win, and GA's runoff election also wins democrat
so basically what I'm saying is it's not going to happen
fast flame
foggy fern
They only need 4 seats, not 6
oak cloak
yeah I was looking at an older map
near glen
Ignoring everything. Isn't generally such a divide in power between senate and house and gov a good thing?
foggy fern
5 if they don't win the WH
In the past sure but these days it just means nothing gets done
oak cloak
yes, but it's become so political that when they are split between parties they just deadlock
foggy fern
Probably not even a budget at least once
near glen
Ah I see
mystic ermine
it would be good if parties got along, basically ^
oak cloak
basically it becomes party over country
near glen
In forgot, they don't talk, cause they all childs
oak cloak
and then when one side does that, the other side has to do that too or they'll lose whatever power they did have
foggy fern
Hell right now Republicans have the Senate and WH and still can't do anything but budgets
House has been passing things like crazy, Senate doesn't even try to pass their own things or look at House things
They just approve judges and investigate Hunter Biden
oak cloak
Erie County, Pa., counted 13,121 mail ballots, which Biden won 5 to 1. There are 37,000 mail votes still out; Dems expect him to carry them by at least 3 to 1. That means he would win this bellwether county.
that's just reporting on a couple counties
it shows an expected trend that as mail in ballots get counted more, it'll favor biden much more heavily
PA is likely to take a couple days to count all of them because they weren't allowed to start until in-person finished lol
foggy fern
I think he easily has 60% of them
oak cloak
they're expecting mail-in ballots to carry biden by 75%
foggy fern
That's just off the top of my head 1am math
shut vine
Yeah he has 60% of the early votes, it's probably going to be very close in PA
I'd guess a Trump win though
oak cloak
trump isn't going to win either of those lol
foggy fern
Biden looks to only flip one Trump county flip back to Democrats but he is expected to get better numbers than Clinton all around and especially in the cities and it was barely Trump in 2016
oak cloak
NYT looks like they're preparing to call NV for biden
foggy fern
It is looking like the polls (or at least the average of the most credible ones) were off more in 2020 than in 2016 though
Probably not enough off for Trump to win but way closer than predicted
shut vine
Isn't NV neck and neck?
Ah but
NV has until 10 for mailout ballots to come back
10th
foggy fern
Nevada is an odd one, pretty much all the vote is in the counties with Reno and Las Vegas
Like, 90% of it or some crazy number
shut vine
So we wont know NV until the 10th, but I guess it would be safe to call blue soon
oak cloak
only 14% of counties in MI have reported absentee votes, which lean 2/3 for biden
foggy fern
We won't have the final numbers for the election until December, doesn't mean the race will go that long π
If a candidate is up 10k votes and the estimate is only up to 2k more votes will come in after election day you'd just assume the race is over
You might be wrong and 50k come in but people won't wait that long for a long shot
shut vine
Nov 17th is the constitutional deadline though isn't it?
foggy fern
I don't remember the exact date, it's never relevant π
shut vine
14 days
foggy fern
Don't you usually only play Hail to the Chief on election night if you're announcing you've won?
Twitter
near glen
Can I watch it somehow?
oak cloak
Twitter
trump said it's clear he's won GA and NC but that is not clear yet
they are extremely close races and could go either way
sweet canyon
He also said he doesn't care about AZ voters but it's nice that he got it.
sweet canyon
Mmmmhmmm
near glen
yeah it looks like he has alternatives numbers π
foggy fern
Wait, the guy who has filed lawsuits in like every county in the country is complaining the Dems are going to take him to court to steal his win?
near glen
there it is
foggy fern
NC is probably Trump but might go down to provisional ballots to decide, dunno how many they had
oak cloak
he wants all voting to stop
near glen
SuPReME COrTE
foggy fern
He really just said he is going to try to jump straight to the Supreme Court to get them to stop counting votes?
oak cloak
united states of fucking america, the president wants all voting to stop
foggy fern
El Presidente your autocrat is showing
near glen
can you support his message to "stop counting votes" ?
cosmic badge
There would be very narrow circumstances in which the Supreme Court would even consider listening.
We are nowhere near that.
oak cloak
this is the behavior of a man who thinks he's going to lose and does not care about the rule of law
great choice for president
cool, that's not relevant to the current discussion
since we're not talking about those ballots
near glen
so you don't support what he just said on national tv?
foggy fern
If it was mailed after election day it doesn't count in any state already
Most states don't even allow it if it was mailed before election day but took a few days to arrive
lol you think I agree with Biden on everything
oak cloak
unlike dems for their candidate
oh god
near glen
why is it so hard for you to say that he just said bullshit
oak cloak
I don't agree with Biden on a lot of things, but at no time has Biden ever asked for the democratic process to be circumvented, soooo
Things the president says does matter. It matters a lot
cosmic badge
Words and actions should have consequences, what a shocking idea.
oak cloak
what route are you suggesting?
Please name one
what evidence do you have for that?
Do have you literally any at all?
Do you know of a single illegally cast ballot?
foggy fern
Think this is why the Supreme Court was setting up the use of Bush v Gore as precedent?
oak cloak
That's such an absurd what-aboutism to bring up
opal moat
im just saying say theres some law somewhere which says that ballot counting must stop at x time
ballot counting doesnt stop until every single one is counted
cosmic badge
I mean if it comes down to it, just recount.
elder portal
What'd I miss?
foggy fern
From the party that complains about judicial activism you sure seem to ignore the possibility a judge or judges just make shit up to get what they want
oak cloak
@elder portal still up in the air, seems likely(?) that biden will win
and trump seems to agree as well
elder portal
Huh?
shut vine
It still could go either way, 225 to 213*
foggy fern
Trump just got on TV and declared victory all but literally and said the election is being stolen from him and he is going to get the Supreme Court to stop it
opal moat
he said that everyone has to stop counting ballots
elder portal
Of fucking course he's going to lose badly
oak cloak
I can't imagine trump would say that shit if he thought he was going to win
oak cloak
ah yes don't listen to me
elder portal
Not that he's lost yet
drifting arch
dont worry about imaBASKET, this person is always insanely confrontational Β―_(γ)_/Β―
oak cloak
yeah I've figured that out
foggy fern
I suppose since he said "we did win this election" he actually did literally declare victory
elder portal
Well, nobody has won just yet
opal moat
well it would certainly be better for america, the world and everyone on it if trump doesnt win
cosmic badge
Looking kinda close, but is COVID carrying Biden? Seems like if not for COVID, Biden would be doing more poorly.
shut vine
I mean, demon you're pretty confrontational too.
elder portal
But the president's behavior is appalling. As I expected it to be.
oak cloak
If you look at the states that are up in the air and the proportions of the votes we expect to come in, biden looks to win right now
it absolutely can go either way, obv
near glen
Well, with how trump "handled" covid, is that surprising byteflux?
opal moat
But the president's behavior is appalling. As I expected it to be.
Wasn't there a news site that didn't call him president, only "ex tv host"
I liked that a lot π
sweet canyon
"under constitution" how could they call all ballots after today don't matter any more?
shut vine
I think that's pretty funny too, tbh
foggy fern
@sweet canyon by making shit up
shut vine
It largely depends on state.
sweet canyon
Sounds more like a dictatorship at that point?
foggy fern
I don't think a majority of the court would do that but I'm worried it's closer than it should be (which is zero)
shut vine
Ballots not received before the close of the ballots today can be void depending on your state.
opal moat
sure sounds like a fair election process yall have over there
near glen
Which is exactly what trump is suggesting
shut vine
I think that it's a possibility regardless of who wins that ballots may not be counted even if legal
near glen
He said to stop counting, even tho there are plenty legal ballots left
Idk how that sounds to you
shut vine
This election is a circus basically
cosmic badge
I'm sure the election results will be challenged in court by Trump, no doubt.
near glen
And your president is the clown
cosmic badge
I doubt that it'll ever reach the Supreme Court, though.
shut vine
I don't have a president.
cosmic badge
Unless it's really close.
oak cloak
@opal moat it's so horrible and based on a history of slavery and I'm ashamed that so many people in this country have voted for Trump and god I just don't know how to feel knowing so many people in this country support a racist, sexist, power hungry lying, stupid sociopath
shut vine
I have a feeling either candidate will challenge a close loss.
oak cloak
So yeah I'm gonna try to go to sleep now because god damn
near glen
It's your president, how are his words not important?
foggy fern
So Trump is just LARPing as an autocrat and that's fine?
opal moat
and shouldnt they not be counted if its illegal?
yes they should, bc ballots that are filled out wrong etc should be counted as well, as invalid. you need to know those numbers
oak cloak
republicans don't think a president's actions matter unless the president is a democrat
opal moat
try to get some rest demon
shut vine
They do have to count void ballots.
cosmic badge
Demeanor is important, even if you believe Trump has a legal right to challenge votes.
shut vine
i.e. they need a number that are considered void.
opal moat
exactly
cosmic badge
You can't just ignore his behavior π
opal moat
Well its awfully convinient to ignore his behavior like that and praise him for other stuff...
near glen
if you ignore the autocratic traits and the racism, hes a pretty cool dude aurora π
cosmic badge
No malicious intention whatsoever!
foggy fern
Because that's what Trump clearly wants to happen
opal moat
I'm concerned because your president is suggesting exactly that
foggy fern
And is going to try to have happen
tough cedar
Bro how
tough cedar
He's suggesting undermining our election
opal moat
he can and he has several times
oak cloak
he does illegal shit all the time
shut vine
Yes yes, the Republicans are evil and the Democrats shit rainbows.
foggy fern
I wonder if we'll see a repeat of https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brooks_Brothers_riot somewhere tomorrow
cosmic badge
I know we live in an "innocent until proven guilty" society but you can't be that naive right π
foggy fern
Or worse, people with guns
oak cloak
no democrats generally suck too
The senate refuses to convict because of politics, not because he is innocent
shut vine
It is fine, just like Al Gore did.
opal moat
Does his actions not matter?
cosmic badge
I'm curious what kind of criminal justice he'll face without the office to protect him.
oak cloak
so it's fine if he does try to do the thing that you're saying he won't try to do because he won't get away with it
shut vine
If it's an obvious loss, he's an idiot for trying though.
oak cloak
so now you've moved the goalpost from "he doesn't mean it, he won't do it", to "he does mean it, but he won't be able to do it anyways"
opal moat
I want to take over austria but it's fine if I want to do that and have thousands of armed supporters behind me because the court wont allow it
opal moat
oof
oak cloak
Why are you working so hard to defend a president who openly said he wants to commit election fraud?
foggy fern
Or he is getting his followers prepped to help him stop the counting
looks at the Brooks Brothers riot again
shut vine
I mean, Biden also claimed the Democrats started a "Election Fraud" organization.
oak cloak
- because legal election fraud happens all the time, laws are not a moral compass
- he didn't say anything about doing anything legally
opal moat
your dumb not to try and do every legal thing you can do
if your legally allowed to kill your mother, would you do it?
near glen
cosmic badge
Yeah hope his stupid rhetoric doesn't incite any violence during all this.
oak cloak
it will, as it always does
shut vine
There are people planning to riot either way Byteflux.
cosmic badge
He knows how crazy some of his supporters are.
opal moat
well there are people how want to kill their mother
shut vine
Biden wins = Riot, Trump wins = Riot.
foggy fern
Brooks Brothers riot is somewhat poorly named, the violence was on the level of a bunch of schoolyard bullies
near glen
it depends how they win james
foggy fern
They mostly took up space, got in your way, and tried to get you to walk in to them or push them so they could use the "he hit me first" excuse to beat the shit out of you
oak cloak
look if you voted for a guy who wants to remove votes from american citizens, and that doesn't alarm you as a problem, then you have issues
opal moat
just because its legal doesn't mean it's ethically okay to do, thats why the whole issue of jury nullification exists
opal moat
no hes not
near glen
he has no basis for that
oak cloak
he's trying to remove votes because he's losing
foggy fern
The main goal of the event was to delay vote counting so it'd go past the deadline
shut vine
I think if he's winning/losing is very subjective at the moment.
opal moat
The main goal of the event was to delay vote counting so it'd go past the deadline
why is there a deadline for counting votes wtf
cosmic badge
Unless we're talking about a really close call like Bush v Gore, I doubt his argument will make it very far in courts.
shut vine
It's enshrined in the constitution. The deadline is how long they have to report the results.
14 days I think
opal moat
what the actual fuck
oak cloak
I'm...not even sure where you just moved the goal posts to
elder portal
Yeah
opal moat
how is that democratic at all
cosmic badge
Sadly America is a democratic republic (or more properly, a constitutional republic) not a democracy.
oak cloak
you went from "he's winning" to "well the EC vote hasn't happened yet so who knows"
opal moat
by showing that your point makes no sense
foggy fern
opal moat
good job
oak cloak
no, when the AP calls a state it's exceptionally rare they are wrong
and also how does my point make no sense
shut vine
Pretty sure he used it for illustrative purposes.
oak cloak
the vote count as it currently stands shows biden up by 23 EC votes
shut vine
Though it's not typically a good way to prove your point.
oak cloak
in what way is that wrong or makes no sense
cosmic badge
oh nice, when was AZ called π
oak cloak
that's not how elections work
because not everyone's vote has been counted
jfc what is your logic
near glen
who called AZ? for whom?
oak cloak
what kind of mental gymnastics are you doing
opal moat
that's not how elections work
@oak cloak your entiry system is not how elections work
oak cloak
AP called AZ for biden
oak cloak
yeah I know and it depresses me every election
elder portal
Don't forget, because of the way the electoral college was designed, in December they can vote for anyone they want regardless of state votes. It has never happened yet, but the thought that it can is terrifying
cosmic badge
lol
oak cloak
this is american elections 101
foggy fern
You could only give Trump the states not yet called if you stopped counting the votes
opal moat
You could only give Trump the states not yet called if you stopped counting the votes
which conveniently is exactly what he wants to do
elder portal
Still need to wait until December
Because ec
Who can, again, vote for whoever they want. Fuck your rules or votes
They decide who is actually president
foggy fern
π
elder portal
Never happened yet, but terrifying
opal moat
lol
tough cedar
Oh CNN tickers lol
near glen
the face is so fitting
tough cedar
Unclear why
opal moat
I do understand now why so many people usually don't vote in the USA
it really makes no sense
elder portal
A lot is broken, but it can be fixed
cosmic badge
@elder portal States can enforce pledges
elder portal
We're trying
cosmic badge
A faithless elector can be replaced
tough cedar
I don't know why, but this is my first presidential election I was eligible to vote in
elder portal
Not even most, iirc
tough cedar
I don't understand the apathy at all lol
opal moat
If you are used to actual elections you would understand
elder portal
Pfft
foggy fern
Steve Kornacki on MSNBC could only have maybe got like 2 hours of nap time in today and has been on air since like 7am
elder portal
Yeah, that abortion law definitely won't impact anyone. That's why it was made into a vote
Because we never vote on things that matter
Definitely
foggy fern
They keep rotating out the anchors and the anchors keep going back to Steve Kornacki to be the numbers geek
opal moat
Well if you're a white cis male /shrug
elder portal
Yeah
In that case you're good
What if aliens abduct you tonight?
What if these what ifs don't matter?
near glen
I mean, you should care about your country
opal moat
and about other people
near glen
arent americans patriots?
opal moat
I don't get why it is so hard to care about other people
near glen
if you love your country, you vote
opal moat
I hate my country thats why I vote lol mini
cosmic badge
the irony of calling ourselves patriots while worshipping traitors who fought to create their own country because they were told slavery is bad π
elder portal
One of the best tactics for political ads is demotivational campaigns. They're targeted at your opposition to make them fed up with the process to get them to not vote. They are surprisingly effective
That's what usually happens
oak cloak
yeah I hate a lot about what the US is, but this is still the country that I live in. That's why I vote every election and donate to so many campaigns to try and change the US to be a better country. Blind nationalism is disgusting
foggy fern
Trump had some of those on Facebook so targeted odds only only a handful or one person ever saw them
In 2016, I mean
opal moat
oh nice
foggy fern
Part of the reason Facebook banned political ads for a period before the election
opal moat
Sarah McBride, national press secretary at the Human Rights Campaign, has become the first openly transgender state senator in U.S. history after winning a state Senate seat in Delaware on Tuesday night.
foggy fern
π
opal moat
this
oak cloak
so AP gives 3 of Maine's votes to biden
oak cloak
dope
elder portal
I thought AZ was safe blue
oak cloak
AZ is a flip
oak cloak
may have been safe because of how shitty trump was to mccain
elder portal
Heh
cosmic badge
good job Californians, keep moving to AZ π
elder portal
Reap what you sow
cosmic badge
should've been no doubt AL would flip, Jones was handed his win and still barely won
elder portal
Yeah, I was just a little sad that CO flipped dem
oak cloak
wait you're sad
oak cloak
are you in CO?
foggy fern
Republicans are +3 seats in the House so far though
elder portal
Very moderate
foggy fern
Not going to get a majority at that rate but still a gain
cosmic badge
Senate control is really important, you can afford to lose House seats but not Senate
foggy fern
Estimate was the Dems would pick up 10 seats in the House
oak cloak
that feels like the approval ratings super super low, re-election rates super high fallacy to me
elder portal
Hickenlooper is very democratic, so CO switched even farther blue
I prefer it a little purple
oak cloak
nice, that makes me happy at least π
opal moat
what news are you watching + is there a live stream
oak cloak
american purple is pretty red
foggy fern
Hickenlooper is the one people kept saying was going to be Kasich's VP if he got nominated
elder portal
It's been very red recently
oak cloak
I haven't been watching news, just watching NYT and AP reports and refreshing websites
elder portal
It needs to be more blue for now, but the current senator for CO is surprisingly blue for being red
oak cloak
at 238 EC votes called for biden that puts him at 97% chane of wining
opal moat
well I'm gonna play some more watch dogs legion, which is how I imagine america will look like in a year if this all continues. stay safe yall
oak cloak
@foggy fern you still watching? Am I right in the current state that if Bident takes Nevada the election is all but over?
I'm showing >99% if he takes Nevada
near glen
wouldn't it still depend on penny?
foggy fern
Yeah, if you give Biden NV and AZ of the ones still not called 538 thinks it's over
elder portal
Feels like it shouldn't be as close as it is
oak cloak
if he got NV + MI + WI, he wouldn't need PA
foggy fern
Numerically Trump could still win but he didn't in the simulations they ran
elder portal
We'll see
drifting arch
at least i know all the states to never visit (gigantic /s)
oak cloak
with NV and AZ I see 1 simulation where trump wins
elder portal
Also, posting this again, here's a bunch of Twitter data on the candidates over the last few months: https://stats.egg82.ninja/d/X2eIbGdMz/twitter?orgId=1
oak cloak
There's a fair chance trump could lose GA
elder portal
Who doesn't love data
cosmic badge
I think WI goes to Trump, most of it is in now
foggy fern
btw my district in Iowa went Republican
It already was but it used to be Steve "what's wrong with white supremacy?" King so we hoped we could win this time
But they got him out in the primary so it was a blowout for the new Republican
oak cloak
if it's true that atlanta is the last district to report in GA then it could swing it blue
it's a tight race
foggy fern
3/4 of the Atlanta city core? Nah, that could never happen
cosmic badge
Wait Atlanta hasn't even reported yet?
I would assume with 94% in they're mostly in
oak cloak
not sure, I remember there being discussion about absentee ballots in atlanta still needing count
elder portal
The longer this goes, the more blue it gets
foggy fern
Georgia is basically all cities for the remaining votes
sweet canyon
I think GA also has a decent amount of mail in too?
oak cloak
the difference is about 100k, that is incredibly close for something like that
foggy fern
Atlanta, Macon, and Columbus are way behind compared to the rural counties
oak cloak
yeah, I think it's possible
elder portal
Mail in, cities, etc are all blue/blurple
oak cloak
not saying one way or the other, but can't call it right now
foggy fern
Oh and Savannah
For real, all the urban counties are 80% and all the rural ones are 98%+
Ah, some are lower, found one at 75%
elder portal
Still need to wait a few days for extra ballots, though
oak cloak
rural areas have fewer people and are easier and quicker to count
this isn't hugely surprising
foggy fern
But they have fuck all votes
elder portal
Regardless of winner tonight
foggy fern
75% of 3000 votes means the remaining votes there you probably won't eve notice coming in π
oak cloak
I'm amazed NC is so close. <100k is crazy
near glen
aikar did good work in his neighborhood I guess π
foggy fern
It's actually about 6700 votes expected there and 5000 are already in
oak cloak
seems worst case scenario here is biden wins NV, MI, WI, and nothing else
would result in a tie
foggy fern
GA lead narrowed further, just over 100k now
oak cloak
PA could definitely go to biden so I'm keeping my fingers crossed
foggy fern
demon ME-2 hasn't been called yet so that might not lead to a tie
oak cloak
you think it's likely that'll go blue?
near glen
ME = maine?
foggy fern
My map on 538 shows a 41% chance so not likely but possible
sweet canyon
Altanta hasn't been counted yet and it looks to be mostly blue
oak cloak
mail-in ballots can swing as hard as 80% biden
in some counties that we've seen so far
foggy fern
Twitter
oak cloak
hey maybe alaska will swing biden lol
we won't see mail ballots in alaska for about a week, fwiw
foggy fern
I think the campaign actually put out a statement about the contents of the speech (or what they were supposed to be) so you don't really have to guess what they wanted him to say
sand shale
what is the best site to see president results?
oak cloak
different sites have different tools, and some report numbers different so it's useful to cross reference multiple
sand shale
so much red
elder portal
Eh
oak cloak
yeah, small states by population have lots of land
so they appear to dominate, which many republicans don't undersatnd
elder portal
It looks bad for blue, but because electoral college those states count for little
elder portal
It's always close
oak cloak
basically if you look at the top right of the US map that accounts for basically as many votes as the whole sea of red you're looking at
AP is reporting 238 Biden, 213 Trump
AP is generally considered to be the leading authority
sand shale
link to "AP"?
oak cloak
the colors are too bright on CNN's map, harder to read lol
sand shale
results
foggy fern
AP is calling Nevada for Biden then?
oak cloak
if you just google "election 2020" that's the AP map
cosmic badge
google uses AP's results, so you can just google "election results" π
foggy fern
I know Fox was at least at one point
oak cloak
not yet, AP called AZ
elder portal
Googling that doesn't work for me
sand shale
or me
elder portal
I get no google map at all
foggy fern
Err, Arizona, that's what I meant
foggy fern
538 says Biden has a 97% chance to win then
elder portal
Same
oak cloak
basically all maps that aren't CNN, Fox, or NYT is gonna be getting its data from the AP usually
elder portal
I get nothing
near glen
foggy fern
NBC and I think WP also do their own maps
oak cloak
yeah that sounds right
sand shale
"2020 general election"
foggy fern
And ABC/538 is their own map too?
oak cloak
does 538 call races?
elder portal
I get no map from google
foggy fern
They're a part of the Disney Empire so it's more like they give commentary for ABC
oak cloak
christ what doesn't disney own
steady patrol
i couldnt get it to come up on mobile
violet lion
A/B testing, like usual
elder portal
I couldn't get it to come up on mobile or on my laptop or on my pc
foggy fern
Viacom owns CBS, Comcast owns NBC, Disney owns ABC, Fox and Fox News are still their own thing
cosmic badge
try using browser instead of app
foggy fern
Disney wasn't allowed to own Fox and didn't want Fox News so they got split off when Disney bought the rest of Fox
violet lion
Looking at the map, this is worrying https://i.imgur.com/wvEJhf4.png (from the guardian's website )
cosmic badge
Disney still effectively owns like 70% of media entertainment in the US, I think
elder portal
Map is fine
cosmic badge
It's something obscene like that
elder portal
Looks scary
steady patrol
TBF mail in votes have not been counted yet for all states
elder portal
Is not scary
violet lion
it is scary
elder portal
Lot of red that means very little
violet lion
because it looks like Biden won't have a chance
elder portal
It means little
violet lion
I'm talking more specifically about the ones in light-red
foggy fern
Guardian map looks like the circle size is based on electoral votes, not sure what the colors are coming from
violet lion
the ones not counted yet
elder portal
Yeah
violet lion
Here's the full map website https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/ng-interactive/2020/nov/03/us-election-2020-live-results-donald-trump-joe-biden-who-won-presidential-republican-democrat
I just screenshotted it
foggy fern
I guess it's just showing their current counts
elder portal
The longer this goes on, the more blue everything gets
foggy fern
Trump is currently ahead in the count in WI, MI, and PA
elder portal
Yes
violet lion
Yes
but didn't Trump also defy the polls last time?
foggy fern
They're still counting absentee ballots there
elder portal
Mail ins and large cities take longer, and are mostly blue
violet lion
oooh I see
I love how American politics are more interesting to me than Portugal ones 
oak cloak
In Pennsylvania, a legal battle is quickly ramping up. Republicans filed a number of lawsuits during the day on Tuesday, with two cases scheduled to be heard on Wednesday.
drifting arch
Because they're republicans
oak cloak
There is still a large share of uncounted votes in Pennsylvaniaβs most populous counties, including Philadelphia and Allegheny (Pittsburgh), and the largest suburban county, Montgomery.
cosmic badge
What's their argument?
oak cloak
probably that it's too easy to vote
cosmic badge
lol
oak cloak
that's the GOP go-to
elder portal
And they choose to do this right now
oak cloak
tried it in texas earlier this week if you remember
elder portal
Because of course
cosmic badge
So basically the counting isn't going to stop and the courts are probably going to tell them to screw off.
oak cloak
we can hope
elder portal
Because right now is clearly the best time
violet lion
For a rando like me, what does that mean specifically? Could you explain in more details please?
oak cloak
what does what mean
elder portal
Basically they're trying to delay vote counting
Thereby giving the state to Trump
Because that's.. us. For you. I guess.
sigh
I have a slight concern in that senate seats have been blocked from being filled until a Republican president took office, and now they've all been filled. By Trump.
I'm going to imagine it will all be fair
But there's that slight twinge
oak cloak
@sand shale @elder portal this is where we're at, with all called races marked https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-biden-election-map/#TX:1,OK:1,AR:1,LA:1,AL:1,MS:1,ND:1,SD:1,MT:1,WY:1,ID:1,WA:0,OR:0,CA:0,AZ:0,NM:0,NH:0,VT:0,CT:0,NJ:0,MD:0,VA:0,SC:1,TN:1,KY:1,OH:1,IN:1,IL:0,MN:0,IA:1,MO:1,KS:1,NE:1,CO:0,UT:1,N2:0,HI:0,M1:0,WV:1,MA:0,DE:0,DC:0,RI:0,ME:0,N1:1,N3:1,NY:0,FL:1
cosmic badge
Trump's popular vote count actually doesn't seem that far behind Biden
cosmic badge
He's exceeded the number of votes he got in 2016, so in a way, he's gotten more popular.
elder portal
Looking good for Biden
oak cloak
it might not
near glen
Well, that's why its not over
oak cloak
it's a scary thought
elder portal
But again, more blue
near glen
Altho trump said it's over π
oak cloak
but yeah it's not done yet
violet lion
Altho trump said it's over π
happens, I guess
elder portal
Yeah, he never promised he wouldn't declare victory early
foggy fern
They ran 1000 simulations to get the starting predictions and rerun at least some of them based on the actual results you're filling in
oak cloak
you they posted the last updated a couple hours ago
violet lion
I've heard from other people that we'd know the results by the 13th.. uh any reason why people said that?
foggy fern
Pretty sure the finalized the simulation before the polls closed
oak cloak
ah yeah you're right
elder portal
We won't actually know until December, when the ec votes
oak cloak
could be wrong but I think they got florida the most wrong in their simulations
foggy fern
EC only matters if it's something like 270-268 where some unfaithful electors could ruin it
near glen
Then the real fun begins π
foggy fern
Doesn't matter if they allow it or not, the vote still counts
elder portal
But the possibility is there
foggy fern
They just get punished for it afterward
shut vine
3 states void unfaithful electors, 30 have fines.