Yea of course.
#politics
shut vine
brisk cradle
It's noise until official tabulations are available
shut vine
Also Trump has a base that lies to polls, why wouldn't they do that to skew things.
I understand why they do by the way, they're sick of the political system, and part of it is polls to them I guess.
foggy fern
NYTimes was the primary one pushing the Comey letter and did the most to sink Clinton at the end because they thought she was going to win and were getting a headstart on reporting on her first scandal as President
Trump supporters weren't shown to lie to internet and robopolls, only to people
shut vine
Well, they're not making that same mistake again.
π
They're literally pretending the possible scandal doesn't exist.
foggy fern
For the same reason they pretended the Steele dossier didn't exist
They had a copy back in like September 2016 or something
shut vine
Interesting, did not know that
foggy fern
Or at least had parts of it, Steele was sending it piecemeal not as a final completed document
shut vine
I mean they're not even investigating it
I'd actually think Devon Archer would know a whole lot about this situation, he's in prison currently isn't he?
brisk cradle
To me the Hunter Biden laptop case is a desperate attempt to recreate the Clinton email server scandal
foggy fern
In September [Fusion GPS] arranged a private meeting between Steele and reporters from The Washington Post, The New York Times, The New Yorker, ABC News, and other outlets. The results were disappointing, as none published any stories before the election.
opaque prairie
lmao
opaque prairie
trump winning Kentucky didnt see that one coming
yeah the first couple sites have closed
trump is ahead: barely 100k votes have been counted
foggy fern
A precinct might have released absentee ballot data early on accident or something
opaque prairie
sounds like trump can call it now right
dusky raft
lol
foggy fern
The only two news sources that posted anything related to the Steele dossier before the 2016 election were Yahoo News and Mother Jones and the Yahoo News one used it as a jumping off point for a story about Carter Page and never mentioned the dossier
After the election McCain heard about it, sent someone to get a copy directly from Steele, and passed it to the FBI
Crossfire Hurricane which eventually turned in to the special council investigation had started months before all of this
MSNBC confirming Kentucky is releasing early vote data
shut vine
Trump has one 70% of the popular vote and every electoral vote? Amazing.
re: the Kentucky early figures and meming
I am pretty sure MSM picked up parts of the Steele dossier prior, though I can't cite any specific cases.
They didn't report on the dossier itself.
NYTimes did report that the FBI saw no clear links to Russia by the Trump campaign back in Nov 2016 though
New Hampshire and Indiana data is coming in too.
opaque prairie
26 votes in new hampshire 
foggy fern
@shut vine FBI clearly got that wrong then since one of Trump's campaign managers worked for a Russian oligarch and was passing him campaign data
Special council investigation found some links but nothing to Trump himself they could prove and iirc nothing illegal they could prove
Found a bunch of other crimes along the way though
Nothing illegal for the campaign, that is
shut vine
I should say no incriminating links.
foggy fern
lol NBC took the time to let you know all the polls that just closed were still too early to call
brisk cradle
HERE WE GO
brisk cradle
But nobody was under the illusion that Indiana was going to go for anyone but the GOP.
foggy fern
If Indiana was too close/early to call shit would be on fire
brisk cradle
It's going to depend on the Sun Belt and the Rust Belt
foggy fern
I don't think PA is as close as people are saying, they're just saying that so you'll watch their coverage tonight
brisk cradle
Again, early results.
foggy fern
If you look at the last polls and take all the ones outside of the margin of error Biden was at 273
Sure, which is why it's not 100% but saying PA is in play is just because they needed something to talk about
Last polling had it Biden +6
brisk cradle
PA did go to Trump in '16.
foggy fern
Of the ones outside the margin of error it's the closest so if the polls are off it's the one mostly likely to go the other way
Cubans are pretty conservative
A lot of latinos would be if conservatives would stop demonizing them
brisk cradle
^^^
The same applies to Muslims too. Muslims used to be quite conservative, then 9/11 happened and the GOP demonizes them, now they're a largely Democratic bloc.
foggy fern
Their rhetoric gets people to go out and accuse random brown people of being illegals
I never thought I'd want Reagan back but I want Reagan back
He was America's last brush with fascism but still not as bad
Not a chance
It'd have to be the surprise upset of all time for the House to be in play
brisk cradle
The House is not in play. Democrats are expected to actually increase their majority in the House.
foggy fern
Even people who think Trump will get over 300 EVs and Republicans will keep the Senate don't think the House will flip
brisk cradle
He was real breathless talking about Vermont. Everyone knows Vermont will go to Biden.
Florida lead flipped to Trump again. Again, pretty early.
Another rollercoaster again for Biden has the lead in FL again
0.1 percent tho
foggy fern
MSNBC accidentally cut to commercial in the middle of letting us know the three 7:30 poll closings were still too early to call (no shit)
shut vine
I think it's about a week too early to call ROFL.
brisk cradle
yeah let's just wait in FL
shut vine
Unless it's clear nearly all votes are in and there is a clear margin.
foggy fern
There are a couple states that could be called tonight that would essentially tell you who wins
shut vine
The mail in votes could take a while to get tabulated.
foggy fern
Florida is the main one since they do a good job of counting their absentee ballots early
brisk cradle
Biden is ahead in GA for now tho...
foggy fern
If Florida goes Biden it's over, you can go to bed
And unless Florida is really close we should get a projection for it tonight
Georgia has been lean Dem for months
Although RCP average moved it to Trump +1 right before election day
brisk cradle
Yeah, Miami-Dade is a concern for Biden.
foggy fern
So Georgia is definitely a fight
What with all the precincts and what they were in 2016?
shut vine
Yeah Florida's current count is based on early votes and tabulated votes occurring today right?
foggy fern
Florida has basically all of the early and absentee ballot count in, what's left is today's votes and the panhandle
Some of the big counties might still be counting absentee ballots but they should be mostly done
shut vine
Yeah figures. I don't think Biden will get Florida then, but there are quite a few states that could go either way.
brisk cradle
If that's true I'd probably say Trump has a good chance of winning Florida.
That's bad news for Biden.
foggy fern
CNN's website has a map similar to what you're asking for
You can click on a state and see all the precincts and their estimate for how many votes are in
NYTimes has one that shows differences from 2016 but doesn't show precincts
Also doesn't seem to have any data yet
shut vine
There are quite a few ways both candidates can win.
brisk cradle
Though Miami-Dade is supposedly mostly early in-person voting. Election Day is likely Trump-leaning and absentee ballots are Biden-leaning.
foggy fern
538 has a similar map but doesn't have any data for it yet, dunno if they're waiting for something or if the site is just broken
shut vine
Interesting, Flordia is 73% reporting and 50.9% Biden currently
tough cedar
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/results-president.html NYT has the counties
shut vine
Why is Virginia blue on that one? Trump has more votes doesn't he?
foggy fern
538 says the only tossups are Georgia and Ohio but if that's true Trump already lost
Virginia is almost certainly going Biden
Virginia going Trump is as likely as Indiana going Biden
shut vine
Yeah I mean, it probably will, but they called it at 8%
foggy fern
If they saw enough to show the polls and previous election data is still right they'll call races really early
Virginia is Biden +11
shut vine
It's possible but unlikely.
brisk cradle
Florida will probably come down to Miami-Dade tonight
shut vine
inb4 they don't report by the deadline again
foggy fern
Miami-Dade apparently had way less early voting than expected
shut vine
That's a bad sign.
foggy fern
Like, people are trying to figure out what went wrong there already. Are they not done counting? Did they invalidate a bunch? Did people just not vote? Did they vote today instead?
They aren't done voting there yet, 15 minutes
shut vine
Trump is doing way better than '16 in Hispanic and Cuban areas, and better in Black areas. Biden is doing better in older, white areas, but not by as much.
foggy fern
It's almost all Trump in the panhandle but it also isn't a ton of votes
Biden needs a solid lead before the panhandle comes in but not an overwhelming one
Not before it comes in literally, I mean before you add its votes in π
shut vine
Trump is 6% ahead now in Virginia
Sorry, 12%
Trump is 57.6% now, Biden is 40.7%
Which is 16.9% lead
Virginia probably hasn't tabulated early votes yet
10% are in, but they're doing similar to WV
foggy fern
New York will be projected Biden even if they have 0% in
They'll project that one that second polls close
shut vine
It seems they're doing it fairly.
foggy fern
Some states are like that
foggy fern
These are just projections by the networks, not official results. Their desire to be fast/first is just behind their desire to be right
shut vine
Yeah figures
foggy fern
So unless they have some reason to think a state is going to be contested they're going to call it right away
Sometimes they'll wait for data from some key county to come in just to double check
shut vine
It is
sand shale
No it isn't?
sand shale
sand shale
ah
foggy fern
wow CNN's website really did die
sand shale
die?
foggy fern
Timed out while waiting on cache-mci5940-MCI
It seems to be back now but I was getting that for a few minutes
sand shale
This is gonna be an interesting night
foggy fern
8pm, time to say a dozen states are too early to call
shut vine
foggy fern
They're all pulling from the same source and it isn't the associated press
foggy fern
The exit polling data is a separate group they created just to fund exit polls and the election data is from the state websites and conference calls
wraith grail
I've heard fox, cnn, and ctv all say AP, and the screenshot just shared says associated press too?
foggy fern
I told you that's how they'd do it
wraith grail
Ah
foggy fern
The projections are all going to be per-network/newspaper for the most part and the election data is coming in directly from the states
They might be citing AP for some analysis but they have their own groups tracking all this stuff
Google might just show you AP data though, that's Google
@autumn lotus They're also showing Oklahoma for Trump with 0% reporting
They called that one 3 minutes before the polls closed even
If you're in Oklahoma and there are no local elections you care about? Sure, why not
foggy fern
Sad but expected
shut vine
Yea expected
foggy fern
Last polling had her down like 12 I think
shut vine
I don't really like him tbh
Yeah as Virgina's results come in, Trump keeps surging ahead.
pulsar turtle
interesting
shut vine
Though I have a feeling, those results do not include any early votes maybe
pulsar turtle
looking pink
foggy fern
Biden improved on Clinton in a couple counties in Florida it looks like but not enough to matter
That's my first incorrect prediction of the election π
But I did say it was one of the ones most likely to be wrong
shut vine
He also lost in some, the margin was 1% in 2016, expected based on polls this year, is 3.5%
pulsar turtle
This could be an Al Gore 2.0
shut vine
Doubtful. The conditions for Al Gore were pretty insane.
foggy fern
Florida's ballot in 2000 should have been rejected under the Voting Rights Act π
shut vine
Basically certain counties missed the deadline for reporting, even though they can amend it later. FL Supreme Court ruled they didn't get an extension, without a good reason.
foggy fern
Have you seen what their ballot looked like that year?
shut vine
Yeah, the whole thing was a total mess
pulsar turtle
Why can't they just report the actual numbers instead of close estimates
shut vine
Texas is interesting, wondering if Biden can win that, I doubt it but we'll see.
foggy fern
Florida basically had this complicated overlay but the actual ballot was literally a punch card
Like, for a mainframe computer
shut vine
Yep lol
foggy fern
I'm not talking about the statewide total
NBC has some county right outside Austin that moved 10 points from 2016 and Biden won it, they've got like 99% in
brisk cradle
Miami is still pretty concerning, it's possible we may get a late vote dump and Biden manages a squeaker there.
foggy fern
Florida is probably Trump but still not locked in
tough cedar
if trump wins florida his chances go up to ~33%
foggy fern
I'm not really expecting a Biden win in Texas but excited to see them move purple
If Trump loses Florida his chances must be in single digits
brisk cradle
I think Florida is a likely Trump win.
foggy fern
Yeah, probably
weary obsidian
https://greasyfork.org/en/scripts/395019-the-new-york-times-paywall-bypass if you are trying to use NYTimes
foggy fern
Ohio is a weird one, it used to be a swing state but hasn't looked like it lately
brisk cradle
Then again, if Biden does well in Ohio, then the Rust Belt will be pretty good for Biden
shut vine
Yeah Trump is projected for a 3-4% win in Florida
weary obsidian
man at least some good news that fucking forest isnt anywhere near winning NC
i would be so pissed if he won nc
smoky hedge
Biden up 10% in NC
weary obsidian
(talking on gov)
foggy fern
Didn't the Republicans gimp the governor's office anyway?
tough cedar
up 10% now but that's probably early votes so it'll be closer later tonight i'd imagine
foggy fern
Like, a Democrat won so during the lame duck period they stripped the office of basically all powers
smoky hedge
My guess is Trump gets FL,GA,NC
brisk cradle
Florida is going to be a mess though.
weary obsidian
reporting
smoky hedge
Which means this is gonna be a real close election
sand shale
so can someone clarify something for me:
to win, the electoral votes is what counts, right? not the vote %/vote count?
weary obsidian
right
sand shale
okay
weary obsidian
basically win popular vote at state level to get that states EC value
smoky hedge
Trump only has more votes atm despite less EC due to lack of California
sand shale
CNNs website is down
open ruin
yeah i haven't been able to access CNN all day
brisk cradle
That is because Georgia is not yet really reporting right now, only 17%
open ruin
thought it was my internet 
weary obsidian
why the fuck are there so many latinx voting trump
foggy fern
Cubans
smoky hedge
latinx?
oak cloak
@sand shale https://youtu.be/ajavsMbCapY
brisk cradle
My guess is that Trump improved on his performance with Latinos.
shut vine
It's not just them, black voters too
brisk cradle
It could be that he's run up the score with Cubans.
oak cloak
cubans have always predominantly voted republican
They generally don't see themselves in the same bucket as the rest of the latinx groups
shut vine
Trump is doing way better than β16 in Hispanic and Cuban areas, and better in Black areas. Biden is doing better in older, white areas, but not by as much.
weary obsidian
@smoky hedge latinx is genderless term for all latin american ethnicities
vs latina/latino
smoky hedge
ahhhh that makes more sense than what I was thinking
brisk cradle
So I can understand how Trump is doing really good in Miami-Dade, if he's overperforming with Latinx
brisk cradle
The best guess I've seen is the gender gap: Men are much more likely to support Trump
Biden ahead with 48% of the vote in in TEXAS?!?
foggy fern
Coronavirus ate up all the time Trump could have talked about the wall and caravans and "not sending their best" π
sharp bronze
Well people who get deported can't even vote yet
shut vine
Probably a combination of things, Biden is not very exciting, they had more job opportunities under Trump than any time in history.
smoky hedge
Texas is likely to go to Trump tbh
foggy fern
And the campaign pivoted to stop talking about those things around summer
smoky hedge
Most of the rural areas haven't reported yet
dusky raft
yeah, im surprised that trump has a lead in rhode island at the moment
shut vine
Yeah Texas is a safe bet to say red, though this EC is very weird.
foggy fern
2020 Texas is probably going to look pretty similar to 2018 Texas: scary but not there yet
sharp bronze
I knew it when Hispanic people were shooting BLM protestors
Traitors the lot of them
copper flower
does that "percentage of expected votes" include vote by mail?
sharp bronze
How can you be so Racist as to vote for the guy so wants to deport you
Just because he hates another race more
copper flower
not american, idk how this works π
foggy fern
Expected votes is based on 2016 and 2018 votes, registered voters, and polling
weary obsidian
joco still hasnt reported anything in nc, leave it to that county to be a fuckup. maybe all the polling locations were meth labs that blew up and wont get any votes, heres hoping π€
foggy fern
They don't know exactly how many are coming
shut vine
He's probably just trolling tbh
Even though it has the EV count there, I don't think they've counted them all.
foggy fern
Places that couldn't count absentee ballots ahead of time are going to have a red mirage, places that could are going to have a blue mirage
shut vine
Pretty sure Virginia will go blue.
foggy fern
You have to wait for the dust to settle to see how things really are
smoky hedge
Lmao why has Google called Virginia for Biden when they don't even have him listed as winning
weary obsidian
fyi a site might call a state even early if like all the heavy R districts have reported but the heavy D hasnt
shut vine
Yeah but Virginia apparently counted them based on that site data.
oak cloak
Google hasn't called it, the AP has
smoky hedge
I'm surprised FL hasn't been called yet
oak cloak
and the AP is very rarely wrong once they've called a race
smoky hedge
Yeah fair
foggy fern
Florida they still aren't sure what happened in Miami-Dade
brisk cradle
The X factor for Florida is Miami-Dade.
weary obsidian
there may be missing votes?
foggy fern
If weird things aren't happening there it's probably Trump, otherwise who knows
Miami-Dade apparently has significantly less absentee ballots than expected
brisk cradle
Biden will make up those 300,000 votes in the Washington, DC area.
weary obsidian
@autumn lotus whe na single district hasnt reported their data, it can sway stuff fast once it all rushes in
like NC is gonna swing harder trump once joco turns in
joco has nothing reported yet
oak cloak
300k sure, out of 4million
weary obsidian
joco is so hardcore trump i bet theres types of meth named after him
oak cloak
Not going to do any math, we'll watch and see. If the AP has called it it's nearly a guarantee though, their statistical models and significantly more robust than your back-of-the-napkin calculations and gut feelings
smoky hedge
smh I use both the back and front of my napkin for calculations
oak cloak
the AP has been working on these models for months now
this isn't just a "we're counting now and making educated guesses"
work for an election starts months out, probably even a year+
foggy fern
AP, the networks, and the major papers almost never call them wrong
They call them at different times but almost never wrong
smoky hedge
Ngl the amount of time the US election takes up always weirds me out
oak cloak
because florida is called a swing state for a reason, there's so much variability in florida's voting
smoky hedge
Like I've helped out in elections here in Aus, and it's over so quickly compared to the US
weary obsidian
yall only have 1 timezone dont you
foggy fern
NBC is close to calling it from the sound of things but there are enough questions still to wait
oak cloak
the EC is designed to be as complicated and obtuse as possible, but it helps republicans so we still have it
smoky hedge
Nah we have 4 I believe, plus DST isn't consistent across the country
foggy fern
Australia has 4 I think, ninja'd
tough cedar
i mean Australia has less people in it than california :p
smoky hedge
But I mean like, the leadup to this election started last year
whereas an Australian election will be a few months at the most
foggy fern
Yeah we campaign for like 18 months
oak cloak
cause elections are big profit producers for American news networks
foggy fern
France does it for like 6 weeks
And bars election reporting for some time before election day
oak cloak
I donated so much money to Jamie Harrison, if he loses I'll be super sad π¦
foggy fern
I donated to my own lost causes, JD Scholten and Teresa Greenfield
oak cloak
yeah I donated to a few in oklahoma that are guaranteed to lose
abby broyles had really terrible ads and did a really bad job going up against inhofe
no surprise that science denying corrupt motherfucker is slated to win
foggy fern
Scholten would have won against Steve "what's wrong with white supremacy?" King but he got primary'd by a Republican who campaigned on King being too toxic to be able to help Trump
oak cloak
jfc
For reference @autumn lotus the Oklahoma presidential and senate races were called before any districts reported in
because they already have so much data on how people are going to vote they didn't need to wait
The term for this is gerrymandering btw
deft bronze
huh biden is winning in texas
oak cloak
when you break people up into groups that you know will vote one way or the other, you effectively make those votes moot. The EC does exactly this
foggy fern
gerrymandering doesn't do anything for President, Senate, or Governor
oak cloak
yes it does
I voted democrat in California
that means absolutely nothing
because california is going to win by a big margin
foggy fern
That's not gerrymandering, no one drew those lines intentionally to make your vote not matter
tough cedar
that's not gerrymandering? that's just the demographic of california?
oak cloak
Since the votes are based on States and it's a winner-take-all system, any votes you get which are over 50% + 1 votes are useless
oak cloak
That's true that no one drew the lines specifically, but the EC distribution is set up to give more votes to smaller states
foggy fern
Sure but words mean things, gerrymandering is when you engineer a map specifically to disenfranchise people
hallow shoal
definitely not enough
foggy fern
It's not a random selection, it's the people more likely to do in person voting in the places with few enough voters to be able to report early
fast flame
yeah almost all gerrymandering happens on the county level. it isn't really relevant in national elections like this
foggy fern
If Cunningham loses NC because he couldn't keep it in his pants...
oak cloak
currently up 5%
foggy fern
Polls had him +6 coming into the election and he is up 5% so far
weary obsidian
i was really hoping trump would lose florida π¦
copper flower
too many old people I guess
foggy fern
Before the Republican honeypot told everyone he was trying to cheat on his wife the polls were +10
oak cloak
Biden doesn't need florida to win but god, that would be nice
hallow shoal
California will definitely help him out, as long as he wins some key smaller states too
foggy fern
Biden winning Florida would let me go to bed knowing who won the race
Instead I'll just have to go to bed drunk and anxious π
hallow shoal
that's true
oak cloak
we may not know for sure by the end of tonight
weary obsidian
wish people wouldnt of waited to the last fucking minute to mail it in
i voted a month ago
foggy fern
Doesn't matter if PA takes forever to count their votes if Biden picks up a couple of the other swing states, Trump can have it
oak cloak
Trump isn't going to win the popular vote lol
So many big states haven't reported in
namely california
weary obsidian
soon as joco reports in nc its gonna swing wide
foggy fern
Looks like Texas is going to stay red because Biden picked up the suburbs but Trump picked up the Latinx
weary obsidian
but hey least my mom gave 1 counter vote to trump in joco
weary obsidian
my racist uncle tried to intimidate my mom "you better not vote fucking liberal"
im hoping his worthless ass didnt go vote
oak cloak
those people always vote
foggy fern
Cruz sent out mailers in 2016 telling people who their neighbors were likely to vote for and said they'd update it after the primary
Based on party registration and voter history
pulsar turtle
what if you voted liberatrian
foggy fern
Got a slap on the wrist for that
weary obsidian
it doesnt record who you voted for, just who you affiliate with
foggy fern
Sure but they made that very vague
oak cloak
Trump will lose NM
weary obsidian
i switched to unaffiliated after 2016, fuck the dnc
well i did before 2016, i did after primary
foggy fern
I started off registered independent but wanted to do the caucuses
weary obsidian
theyll get my vote but not my affiliation
nc thankfully you can primary as unaffiliated
brisk cradle
Texas is going to be a nail biter.
oak cloak
I would love texas to go blue but I doubt it will
I think it will be close
Trump is closing the gap, less than 100k now
copper flower
most of the more rural counties are still missing, so yeah, trump seems likely
oak cloak
those counties make up a lot less of the population so..it can go either way still
maybe enough people moved from SF to Austin to swing it lol
hallow shoal
It does look like trump has a good chance at pulling back texas
shut vine
Basically within 30k votes with only 57% in
shut vine
Who did?
foggy fern
The thing I linked was 300,523 ballots lost in the mail
Not sure where you got millions, don't believe random shit on facebook
Twitter apparently thinks I live in Idaho, not Iowa. I've had "Idaho: get local updates about the elections" in my trending for like 3 weeks
shut vine
I think he's a troll, he's said several troll-like things.
foggy fern
shut vine
Bernie wins by leaving the DNC
foggy fern
Wisconsin thinks they'll know the winner there tonight
We won't have vote counts out of New York until next week, although we know who won there already π
weary obsidian
im just glad cooper is wooping forests ass man
foggy fern
Most of those outstanding votes are in blue counties although it's unlikely he gets more than 50% of what's left
oak cloak
yeah I think biden will narrow it but florida and texas are lost
oak cloak
hmm?
copper flower
58% trump in Virginia so far
fast flame
ap has already called virginia for biden
oak cloak
not all counties are reporting absentee ballots yet
foggy fern
I think this is the first election @sharp bronze is old enough to pay attention to
brisk cradle
Yeah, I think Florida is a Trump win. Same with Texas.
foggy fern
Fox is talking about it, apparently
Nothing from AP I can find so far though, just Fox
Fox hasn't actually done it, they're just talking about it
brisk cradle
My "unscientific" map projections are thus far holding, by called states at least
Though it seems likely I will be wrong in Ohio (which I had given to Trump)
copper flower
its still relatively close in ohio
foggy fern
btw now that it's already looking wrong here was my "the polls are right" guess at the outcome https://www.270towin.com/maps/XpXNL.png
I figured Trump would probably get 1 or 2 of Ohio, Georgia, or Florida if this ended up wrong
weary obsidian
it was ag uess basket, cant say "def wrong", florida was tight lol
brisk cradle
My unscientific map for comparison
shut vine
I don't think polls will be accurate at all for the foreseeable future.
weary obsidian
so far from "Def"
foggy fern
No faith in Omaha Tux?
shut vine
A 4% margin of error is a lot for a poll, tbh
brisk cradle
I didn't bother coloring in the congressional district but I have Biden winning by 20 EVs anyway.
Plus the fact I have Maine entirely "blue" disregards ME-2 which is mostly GOP (though it did elect a Democrat 2 years ago)
tough cedar
wtf biden ahead again texas
foggy fern
NBC calls Colorado for Hickenlooper
And Texas for Cornyn even though they haven't called it for President yet
oak cloak
the difference in texas is <50k
brisk cradle
I could have colored it in correctly but they cancel out
foggy fern
Your map (other than NE and ME) is basically "Biden wins all the ones he is ahead out the margin of error for, Trump gets the rest"
Which is a nice safe prediction
oak cloak
Kendra Horn still leads in oklahoma, but I'm still really worried about that one
Jamie Harrison isn't looking great :\
brisk cradle
Here is my map with the proper coloring
foggy fern
Arizona is the only gamble on that map
oak cloak
OH is very close, could go either way. I'm surprised biden is still leading there
foggy fern
Wow we might get a nice example of ranked choice voting in Maine
brisk cradle
If Biden loses AZ, he still wins on my map - but barely. It would be a bad night for the Democrats.
weary obsidian
well people hate biden less than hillary, so prob
and lot of people didnt think trump would win in 2016
fast flame
it's pretty unlikely that trump will gain any former hillary votes
weary obsidian
so they didnt vote or voted 3rd
so those people now know theres no fucking around this time
oak cloak
I've seen pleenty of idiots on twitter saying they were going to vote 3rd party again instead of biden
because they're idiots that don't know how our elections work
tough cedar
could be russian
weary obsidian
its a protest vote, but cant afford it
oak cloak
We need to get rid of the EC first, and voting democrat is the only way that'll ever happen
At the end of the day you have to win to anything
if you don't win, you got nothing
that's something all republicans seem to know
but progressives struggle with that concept
brisk cradle
California will report and then he won't have a prayer of winning the popular vote.
And yeah, I've been pretty generous to Trump. The Rust Belt is obvious but Arizona is a gamble.
oak cloak
California and all of the west coast states
brisk cradle
I think I am most likely to be wrong about NC and OH
oak cloak
CO called for Biden
weary obsidian
i will be super happy for nc to return blue, been a long time for us
brisk cradle
For Ohio to get back in the Dem column would be very good for the Dems.
oak cloak
they probably just haven't gotten latest numbers yet
trump is leading in OH by 10k or so
weary obsidian
i wanna know why joco isnt showing on nc maps yet NC GOP said the vote data was ready 25 mins ago
for the non nc people, joco = johnston county
oak cloak
mail in ballots afaik
weary obsidian
VA NYTimes page says VA is reporting in person voting first, early/absentee later, so its kinda reverse from other states
Timing of results:Election Day in-person votes, which are likely to be relatively stronger for Republicans, are likely to be reported first in most counties. Counties must report processed early votes by 11 p.m. Eastern, but postmarked mail ballots have until noon on Nov. 6 to arrive.
faint radish
NYT says 95% likely NC goes to trump.
pulsar turtle
According to the big G, Biden is leading in electoral results but Trump is leading in popular vote
weary obsidian
yeah its highly likely, but biden still has a chance
you cant look at popular vote yet
its missing the west
faint radish
Miami-Dade county in FL really came through for trump.
weary obsidian
cali alone will destroy trumps PV count
pulsar turtle
Those western states could be full of Trump supporters, but California/Oregon/Washington are real Biden biggies
weary obsidian
are you new to the us elections?
pulsar turtle
no
weary obsidian
that was an odd statemnt to make then
pulsar turtle
I'm being like a sports announcer
oak cloak
california has like 4mil trump voters
faint radish
Yeah, western states will add huge numbers to Biden popular vote
fast flame
it wont even be close to close in cali
faint radish
The Second polls close all agencies will call it for Biden. (CA)
oak cloak
Trump is just barely ahead in TX
well that's true for all red votes
MAGA is 100% disinformation
fast flame
even if biden doesnt take texas, it's a bizarre statement under any other circumstances to say that it's a close race in texas. goes to show how insane trump is.
weary obsidian
wow joco was smaller than i thought
faint radish
Is that where you are aikar?
weary obsidian
no, but shit ton of my family is
so i sadly have to visit that shit hole county often
apparently only AP has the data
oak cloak
this feels identical to 2016 so far
weary obsidian
NYTimes hasnt pulled it yet
oak cloak
Biden (Hillary) seems to have a lead, there's prospects showing he's winning, then boom Trump wins
pulsar turtle
/\
fast flame
fuck
oak cloak
Cause the EC doesn't care about who has more votes
weary obsidian
i feel comfortable cooper has this won for nc
fast flame
scares the fuck out of me
weary obsidian
i hope forest gives up, im tired of seeing his stupid signs
he puts a "run forest run" as 3 signs up
oak cloak
lol god
faint radish
Lol
weary obsidian
people are putting "Away" signs up after his 3rd sign so its Run Forest Run Away
oak cloak
if we could get 10 more blue senate seats that would be just peachy
weary obsidian
adding a sign isnt illegal π
oak cloak
fuck SC is sad
pulsar turtle
trolling the trolls
weary obsidian
who the fuck is Shannon bray why do they have so many nc votes ; ;
foggy fern
PA won't even really start counting until tomorrow
oak cloak
lots of PA counties don't start counting mail in ballots
yeah
beat me to it
we won't know PA until later in this week
weary obsidian
ok ima close laptop lid and watch this damn movie and see the damage afterwards
oak cloak
Trump's running away with it in OH as expected
foggy fern
Milwaukee is expecting to finish counting at 5am
oak cloak
I need to finish my work day then do something else than watch the world fall apart too
shut vine
Catching in NC, Leading TX, leading VA still
weary obsidian
figured id support the movie industry and rent a movie and not be a pirate so hopefully itll move to day 1 rentals as standard π
oak cloak
god seeing millions of votes for a fascist wanna-be dictator kills me
hallow shoal
is AP really the only one distributing data?
foggy fern
Alexandria county in VA only has 27% reporting
copper flower
shouldn't Reuters or something have the same data?
weary obsidian
https://thehill.com/social-tags/2020-election is what im looking at now
oak cloak
AP is the primary source for election data
weary obsidian
using AP
foggy fern
afaik NYT, WP, and the networks do it themselves, all the others get it from AP
hallow shoal
NE virginia is definitely going to be helping biden
faint radish
Looks like graham keeps his seat
hallow shoal
being someone who lives in northern va, it's definitely a lot more democratic
foggy fern
I mean, they'll use AP data if it updates faster than theirs but they're out there trying to get it on their own so they can call it faster
oak cloak
can you imagine being an actual human being voting for Trump or Graham or McConnel
weary obsidian
oak cloak
like these are actual humans who voted for these monsters
weary obsidian
oh you mean catching up
i thought you meant he passed
well, remmber what iquoted above, "remaining counties" was still pretty 50/50 on whats left
shut vine
I see NC as 8K lead, 2,494,712 to 2,486,569
weary obsidian
and biden even got 37% in joco, thats surprising to me
i would of easily expected 75% trump in joco
copper flower
and Texas and Florida are not really close anymore
weary obsidian
fuck tillis is closing on cunningham π¦
oak cloak
yeah
shut vine
Trump won't win TX
I don't expect that to age well.
hallow shoal
Yeah, I really don't see biden winning texas
copper flower
Trump is 2% ahead in texas, and his lead is growing rn. idk
fresh summit
hallow shoal
Biden had a good lead with Austin, Houston and El Paso, but
oak cloak
you don't seem to understand what I'm saying lol
the fact that texas is that close at all is ridiculous
hallow shoal
(edited)
copper flower
You edited it π
hallow shoal
gee gee
fresh summit
google is being kinda dumb here
foggy fern
They're still a bit confused about what happened in Florida and it's always so close and back and forth that they always call it late
oak cloak
That's not Google, that's AP, and that's not being dumb either
fresh summit
called it for biden although only 53% reported and trump ahead
shut vine
Virginia lead has narrowed a whole lot.
brisk cradle
Biden is going to win Virginia, primarily because all the Trump votes were from the rural areas of the state and the DC area has a ton of Democrats
shut vine
Trump had a 16% lead at one point, it's going to be blue at the end of the day probably.
hallow shoal
Eh, that's hard to say
foggy fern
As more votes come in in Virginia Trump's lead goes away, 2016, 2018, exit polls, and existing votes reported make them confident Biden wins
oak cloak
@fresh summit VA was called when trump was 40 points ahead
hallow shoal
Keep in mind, those callings are predictions
oak cloak
early voting and mail-in voting hasn't been counted in VA yet
shut vine
Correct, they are predictions.
foggy fern
NC is tight
oak cloak
if biden wins NC that would be amazing
fresh summit
wait you guys actually want biden to win?
shut vine
13% left, and nothing in it
Several people here want Trump to lose, don't think anyone actually hard supports Biden.
foggy fern
When Biden wins I'm going to play https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t8EMx7Y16Vo on repeat all day π
restive seal
wait you guys actually want biden to win?
If there were a better option like Sanders or Warren, I'd prefer them, but as it stands yeah let's get rid of the guy trashing the country.
brisk cradle
Haha, Georgia is still all fucky.
I think Georgia still goes to Trump but probably by less than 3 points.
shut vine
NC is down to a 3,100 vote lead to Biden
oak cloak
I'm not sure if Trump is the worst president we've ever had, or if Reagan is. Reagan wasn't as evil but was more competent, Trump is a straight up sociopath but he's an absolutely fucking moron
But yeah we need to get Trump out or the damage to the country he's caused will take decades longer to fix
fast flame
trump is definitely the worst one to date
foggy fern
As each of these tossup states start looking like they're going to Trump I play https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u7APmRkatEU again
copper flower
If the US had less military and political power, I probably would find Trump pretty funny as a european
fast flame
johnson is the only one who comes close
fresh summit
lets just vote kanye
hallow shoal
no
violet lion
shut vine
NC is 3K on Google.
Yeah Trump is ahead in NC
I thought the top one was Biden, whoops
brisk cradle
Biden's team had better be hoping that AZ goes their way. Else Trump may win.
foggy fern
Time to start the shots
copper flower
1k vote difference in NC, oof
shut vine
Yeah NC will go to the wire
foggy fern
@brisk cradle Trump needs to win everything that was considered a toss up
oak cloak
Graham wins, jfc what is this country
foggy fern
And even Pennsylvania which I don't think should have been called a toss up
Unless he manages to outperform the polls by better than he did in 2016
brisk cradle
Then again I have the Rust Belt (outside of Ohio) to Biden.
violet lion
wait, who are we going for anyway? 
who do we want to win
foggy fern
Biden of course
hallow shoal
that assumption is why people get into fights
foggy fern
Union county must have come in
hallow shoal
I think we are all watching swing states bud
shut vine
There are Trump supporters here, and anti-Trump supporters, may be wrong, but don't think anyone hard supports Biden.
brisk cradle
Doug Jones is no longer a senator.
oak cloak
Trump is an authoritarian and an idiot and a racist and a....
brisk cradle
John Hickenlooper won in Colorado though so no net change yet.
oak cloak
So yeah we want Biden to win
fresh summit
ah yes, blind name calling
hallow shoal
Those are, yet again, personal beliefs
oak cloak
blind name calling
beliefs
I really don't want to know what horrible fantasy world you live in
foggy fern
The one thing we can all agree on is that Trump is a terrible businessman
oak cloak
God he's so bad
hallow shoal
There's no reason for that comment but ok
fresh summit
your argumentation is infallible
foggy fern
His 2016 campaign was that he was the best businessman and would run the country like his businesses
Which, as we've now found out, means in to the ground
tough cedar
he should be voted out just based on his virus handling and how many people have quit under him alone
shut vine
You know, I see a lot of people who are horribly divisive call Trump divisive.
hallow shoal
The virus handling ultimately lands into the hands of the american people. It is up to the american people to do their part, the president can't control that
tough cedar
yes he can
foggy fern
Well, I say we've now found out but he has been publicly broke after all his businesses failed at least twice before 2016
copper flower
Saying the virus doesn't exist does not really help tho
oak cloak
Not surprised with OH, but it did tease us at first
tough cedar
when the president is supposed to be a role model you can absolutely control how americans react to the virus
shut vine
I don't know if that's accurate but it may be Amaranth, I think he has a lot of money tied up in business, probably to avoid tax.
brisk cradle
I don't think so. Arizona on the other hand...
restive seal
when the president is supposed to be a role model you can absolutely control how americans react to the virus
Don't worry, next time the president is a democrat they'll start saying the president is responsible for things again.
violet lion
Here's a trusted source... https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/jul/13/donald-trump-20000-false-or-misleading-claims
As an outsider, this looks... just bad 
brisk cradle
I think Arizona could flip to Biden, though it will also be a squeaker.
foggy fern
@shut vine nah, he seemed to brag at one point that a homeless person he was walking by had more money than him because $0 was more than negative millions
And he has had at least dozens of business ventures go bankrupt and out of business
shut vine
Yeah as I said maybe. He's the only president in recent history to lose money during his presidency.
He gave away all but what $1 of his presidential check?
oak cloak
There's no question about Trump's ability to run a business on handle money, unless you actively ignore the facts he hemorrhages money and is hundreds of millions in debt
brisk cradle
He has enoluments galore.
restive seal
And profited how much from having government employees stay at his hotels, James? It doesn't matter that he didn't take any salary if he's pulling in way more through his behavior.
shut vine
I mean, are you saying he should have ceased business as President or?
foggy fern
If he had just invested the hundreds of millions he got from his dad he'd actually be a billionaire instead of being hundreds of millions in debt on loans he personally guaranteed
shut vine
Imagine if he put it all into bitcoin.
oak cloak
Geogia's special senate election is wild y'all
@shut vine yes, as all past presidents before him did
foggy fern
He did worse than investing in the stock market while buying real estate and casinos
restive seal
I mean, are you saying he should have ceased business as President or?
I won't push the point of ceasing business because that one's a trickier argument but he certainly didn't need to have government employees stay at his business π
Disregarding all the sketch behavior around his properties related to foreign governments, purely from the perspective of things he could directly control he did not need to funnel money from taxpayers to his pocket.
faint radish
GOP flipped a seat back in senate
oak cloak
okay I need to be more productive with my time before I die from worrying about this country's and the world's future
foggy fern
Alabama, was an obvious one
shut vine
I guess he should have fired 23,000 people @oak cloak
oak cloak
That's not how that works but okay
foggy fern
Or sold the business or actually put it in a trust and tried to avoid interacts with things he knew it was involved in
shut vine
It actually is, if he has to cease all business operations in the Trump Organization, all those people need to be terminated.
foggy fern
Like not going to his own golf courses or Maralago and just using Camp David like a normal President
shut vine
Yeah he relinquished his role in the company.
foggy fern
Or getting Pence to commute across the entire country of Ireland every day so he could stay at Trump's resort there
fast flame
"relinquished"
copper flower
there are countries were you are forbidden to do any business while you are in office as a president
So ceasing all his operations would have been an option
foggy fern
Or getting the military to use a tiny Scottish airfield and stay at Trump's nearby resort on flights back to the US from the Middle East
restive seal
To be clear, by not replying to this are you agreeing with it, or hoping it gets lost in the fighting? :P
purely from the perspective of things he could directly control he did not need to funnel money from taxpayers to his pocket.
shut vine
I don't understand the odds part, does the 80 mean 1:1.80 ?
foggy fern
lol meanwhile the networks are trying to decide if they can call Arizona for Biden yet or not
shut vine
I didn't see it if you're talking to me, there's been a lot of discussion.
I sorta got bombarded after sharing my opinion.
foggy fern
They're expecting Arizona to tighten up but based on exit polls Biden seems to have done way better with independents than Clinton did in 2016
shut vine
I agree about the funneling, if that can be proven to a legal standard I think he should be impeached.
foggy fern
So they're expecting a decent chunk of the in person voting to go his way too
shut vine
I equally think the same about Biden and the Hunter scandal though.
foggy fern
Trump is literally on camera staying at his own properties and only his own properties while President
shut vine
I know impeachment doesn't technically require proof to a legal standard, but I still think that should be standard operating procedure.
foggy fern
And seems to be charging the Secret Service twice the normal rate for things due to "surge charging" and various other tactics
NYT already called Rhode Island for Biden
copper flower
I expect Michigan to be quite close, but Biden tbh.
But idk, just a guess
shut vine
So are you saying Trump is truthful?
foggy fern
It's pretty much only in person numbers so far
shut vine
I mean I certainly agree that would look bad, but there would be a money trail to prove it.
foggy fern
Rhode Island was polling Biden +15
Rhode Island hasn't gone red since before you were born
Well, you might have been born, it was 1984
brisk cradle
Currently my unscientific map has held on so far!
shut vine
Last time was Reagan.
foggy fern
Time before that was 1972, before that was 1956
shut vine
RI is only 33% in.
foggy fern
It basically doesn't happen unless someone is having a wave year and taking the whole country
shut vine
Why are both NC and FL holding at 91%?
foggy fern
I'm seeing 89 and 94
shut vine
Ah which one is 94?
foggy fern
FL, I did them in the order you did π
shut vine
NyTimes?
foggy fern
Yeah
foggy fern
If Trump wins this it'll make me depressed about what we decided to finally replace neoliberalism with
brisk cradle
I don't think they will pick someone less polarizing. If Trump wins that's just going to give the GOP permission to double-down on Trumpism.
Wouldn't be surprised if the GOP candidate in 2024 is none other than Don Jr.
shut vine
FL can fairly safely be called red, 693K votes left to count, 400k lead.
Yeah I'd guess Don Jr. too Tux
brisk cradle
Even if Trump loses, Trumpism will never leave the party. Don Jr. could well run for president in his father's stead.
foggy fern
Economically all we've had since Carter are neoliberals, the only real fights have been over social issues and how much of a social safety net (that always manages to enrich business still) is acceptable
Trump was the first winner that rejected neoliberalism but his replacement appears to be palingenetic ultranationalism
brisk cradle
My map is still holding
foggy fern
btw you should totally google palingenetic ultranationalism π
oak cloak
NC somehow the closest damn race in the country
foggy fern
Maine was polling Biden +12
brisk cradle
Maine is likely to go Biden, since not a lot of the vote is in
foggy fern
So... probably not but he might pick up 1 EV there still
oak cloak
maine isn't a winner-take-all state
shut vine
Isn't Maine only 4 EV?
foggy fern
@weary obsidian they called NC for Cooper
brisk cradle
By congressional district.
restive seal
The early exit polls of Arizona show voters over 65 prefer Biden by 5 percentage points.
fast flame
yeah cooper wins
brisk cradle
2 EVs go to the state wide winner, then one per CD winner.
foggy fern
Maine and Nebraska both do 1 EV per district and 2 EV to the statewide winner
shut vine
Ah interesting
foggy fern
Just like their representatives and senators are handled which is where those EVs come from
Unless Florida is a landslide you never call it
shut vine
It's a hopeful holdout, it's technically possible.
brisk cradle
Technically possible but unlikely. I'd call for Trump.
foggy fern
Florida is always too close and too much of a clusterfuck
They probably think it's over but you don't call Florida early
shut vine
If Trump gets 1/4 votes in FL from now on he wins.
restive seal
If you call Florida early Chief Justice Rehnquist climbs out of his grave and strangles you to death on live television.
oak cloak
they don't need to call it, calling an election isn't an official declaration lol
tough cedar
oh man he's going to expose qanon now
shut vine
Marjorie Greene won?
foggy fern
She couldn't lose
The district was so lopsided as soon as she won the primary it was over
"There's a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to take this global cabal of Satan-worshiping pedophiles out, and I think we have the president to do it."
shut vine
So far the House/Senate seems unchanged (numbers wise).
foggy fern
TIL Soros speaks Esperanto
brisk cradle
Pretty sure Arizona goes to Biden at this point.
Iowa is looking unexpectedly good for Biden rn.
shut vine
Yeah that's a pretty safe bet
brisk cradle
Again my map is holding up.
foggy fern
Iowa started counting absentee ballots yesterday so the initial numbers are going to be mostly those
shut vine
Ah that makes sense.
brisk cradle
That makes sense. So I think it'll go towards Trump over time.
foggy fern
No bet, obvious call
shut vine
I'm calling California now.
brisk cradle
California is an obvious Biden win. Same with Oregon and Washington state.
foggy fern
I'm also going to call California for D in 2024
shut vine
It'll go blue, not blue like the sky either.
brisk cradle
Idaho is going to go for Trump too.
foggy fern
That's always a possibility
It's just almost guaranteed this year
If the election comes down to PA we may not know the winner until Friday or Monday
shut vine
I'm going to guess it'll be a week before we have something concrete unless it's a clear win either way.
sick walrus
this will go for at least 2 weeks
foggy fern
Graham projected to win
shut vine
Some states are allowing ballots that arrive late as long as they are postmarked correctly.
sick walrus
kanye wins by landslide
foggy fern
NBC projects Georgia special election is going to a runoff
shut vine
West winning would be wild.
foggy fern
Kayne couldn't even get on the ballot pretty much anywhere
And he only even tried in states where he was likely to cause the state to flip to Trump
shut vine
I think he missed the deadline in most states.
foggy fern
He basically only tried to get on the ballot in the Midwest and Rust Belt
here comes CA
All 4 of these states will be called immediately
fast flame
yeah itll hit any moment now
foggy fern
ID too early to call, weird
faint radish
Whoa CA to Biden... whoβd of thought that... π
oak cloak
ID called for trump
faint radish
MSNBC said too early
oak cloak
100 people voted for trump in ID which is the entire population
faint radish
Who called ID for trump demon?
foggy fern
NYT called ID, NBC said too early
foggy fern
MSNBC, Peacock, and NBC News are all the same people btw so for the raw data and projections they're identical
shut vine
I personally think it's too early.
opaque prairie
i am no longer having a good time
shut vine
Why not?
foggy fern
MSNBC just has their opinion people anchoring while NBC News has their newspeople
Peacock has Morning Joe anchoring
foggy fern
One useful thing they're doing on MSNBC is, when the states are breaking it out, using different colors for in person vs absentee votes
So you can get an idea of which ones are still outstanding and thus how the race is likely to change
NYT called NH for Biden
iirc that was a squeaker for Clinton
brisk cradle
I'm a broken record. My unscientific map is still looking quite good.
tough cedar
can i see it again
brisk cradle
tough cedar
ty
foggy fern
If that is the final map odds are the Republicans keep control of the Senate
oak cloak
How sure are you about MI?
shut vine
MI is a toss up at present
foggy fern
MI was polling Biden +8
brisk cradle
It is unscientific. But I think MI will go for Biden, even the GOP says a Trump win is not likely right now.
oak cloak
gotcha
yeah I was really hoping we could beat graham and mcconnel, losing those races fucking hurts
foggy fern
MN, WI, and MI were all polling Biden +8
fast flame
we had no chance at mcconnell
oak cloak
still hurts
brisk cradle
My guess: Biden will win, GOP will keep Senate control, the Democrats expand their number of seats in the House.
faint radish
Iβm eh on the presidential race, but Iβm really hoping GOP keeps senate majority.
shut vine
Currently house/senate numbers remain static.
brisk cradle
Democrats will probably pick up one Senate seat in Arizona, that's it.
foggy fern
Bullock is still a possible flip, iirc Cunningham is slightly outperforming Biden so might get it even if Biden loses
fast flame
mcgrath ran a surprisingly bad campaign which is disappointing. he was giving his victory speech like 2 and a half hours ago.
faint radish
She got a ton of money too. Grahamβs challenger (Harrison?) did as well
restive seal
Iβm really hoping GOP keeps senate majority.
Might I ask which bill they've refused to consider over the last two years of sitting on everything are you the biggest fan of? π
brisk cradle
I forgot about Montana, Bullock probably has a good chance but I think it's not so likely.
But if Bullock wins, control of the Senate will in all likelihood depend on the results of a January 5th Senate race in Georgia, and my gut feeling is that the GOP is heavily favored.
foggy fern
Democrats need to pick up 3 or 4 seats to take the Senate, I'm only seeing maybe 3 happening based on what we're seeing
McSally is toast in AZ
fast flame
yeah kelly has already been called as the winner
shut vine
It's not good to give one party all the power, regardless of who it is.
fast flame
glad we got mcsally out
brisk cradle
That would mean we get a 50-50 tie in the Senate, and since I assume Biden wins, VP Kamala Harris can break ties.
shut vine
I would prefer the house and executive are the same party, and the senate is the other party personally.
foggy fern
Yeah, if Democrats pick up 3 and Biden wins the Senate is Democrat
restive seal
But the senate being republican has firmly established they will not play fair with judicial nominees and will fuck it over, James. How does that make for a functional government?
foggy fern
Harris breaks all the ties and the turtle gets to go back to talking about all their Obamacare repeal bills that people want but the Senate refuses to vote on
restive seal
Like, I totally get the desire for having both parties have a say in stuff, it's not like every single viewpoint republicans have should be discarded.
But the senate republicans have made it very clear they do not want to play, they want to fully control.
shut vine
I mean, it's about the same as Democrats blocking Republican bills just because they're Republican.
oak cloak
yeah senate republicans have no intention of governing
foggy fern
House is the same as the Senate so far, they've flipped an equal number of seats
shut vine
Correct, they remain static.
restive seal
Are you really going to both-sides senate republican behavior? Good lord.
oak cloak
It's such a horrible argument but when it's all you have /shrug
restive seal
I'm just going to yeet myself out of here before my tired brain makes me say something I regret later. π
shut vine
So you'd prefer Trump went unchecked in his 4 years?
oak cloak
What are you talking about, he did go unchecked
foggy fern
Democrats in the Senate were pretty obstructionist to Bush but no where near the level McConnell was for 6 years of Obama
Georgia is counting mail in ballots still, you can't really say anything about it yet
Maine has basically no votes in yet
shut vine
Guess the House passed all the legislation Trump wanted even though the Democrats controlled it.
I missed that part.
foggy fern
That was 2 years
The other 2 Republicans controlled everything and the only thing they passed was a tax cut for rich people
Obama used his two years to pass the ACA
The House has at least been willing to negotiate for these 2 years too
They have some things they won't budge on but they'll come to the table and see what you're willing to offer
McConnell blocked the stimulus
fast flame
because it sat on MCCONNELLS DESK
shut vine
I think both the House and the Senate have negotiated, particularly if you look at the stimulus package.
No, the Democrats did compromise.
smoky hedge
So as far as I can tell, there's a non zero chance that Biden becomes pres, and Trump becomes VP lol
Unless my research is flawed
shut vine
Both parties in that bill did.
foggy fern
Trump wanted it, House passed on in April, Mnuchin wants the biggest stimulus Congress is willing to pass because that's his job, McConnell was the one that didn't want it
shut vine
Just not enough for either party to budge.
smoky hedge
If Trump wins PA, it's very possible to be a tie. If there's a tie, Senate votes for VP and HoR votes for Pres. HoR would likely be dems, and senate would likely be republican.
brisk cradle
@smoky hedge Your research is flawed - it depends actually on the state delegations in the House, and that would narrowly vote Trump in.
foggy fern
House even cut 1/3 off of the bill they'd been waiting on the Senate to pass for months to try to get them on board
brisk cradle
So Trump will likely win a second term from the House
faint radish
Yeah, itβs 26-24 in the house
shut vine
Who do we think the House will pick for President if they win and it's a tie? Harris or Biden?
foggy fern
Right now the House state delegates are 26/24 Republican but it's the new House that picks
So that might change
brisk cradle
The House will pick Trump, since it's by state delegations.
Trump has a 2 state advantage.
faint radish
But itβs by state delegations
Not by total reps
Each state gets one vote in the house
foggy fern
They don't vote as representatives, all of the ones from each state decide who they'll go for and each state gets one vote
brisk cradle
Just because Democrats control enough seats to have the majority doesn't mean they have a majority of state delegations to the House.
foggy fern
So you need a majority in a majority of states
shut vine
Ah I see.
oak cloak
The tie-breaker rules for the EC are the most 1800s bullshit ever
shut vine
I personally would say an EC tie breaker should be popular vote
faint radish
Nah, VP would be acting
faint radish
No idea how that would be resolved
foggy fern
I meant because she is in the line of succession
But Pence would be in office so he is first
oak cloak
if the house ties the VP becomes president until the house can make up their mind
foggy fern
Unless Democrats take the Senate, then it'd be President Harris
oak cloak
there is no tie-breaker rule for the house
oak cloak
I doubt it
faint radish
I wonder if pence breaks the senate tie on picks for VP if there is an EC tie
Pence could vote for himself to break the tie
foggy fern
No
faint radish
Why not?
oak cloak
Pence is no longer the VP if there is an election tie
faint radish
Heβs still the VP until Jan 20
foggy fern
Pretty sure I remember reading he couldn't break a tie for that vote
oak cloak
basically those seats become vacant until filled
foggy fern
So then it really would be President Pelosi
shut vine
Yeah he's VP in a tie situation still.
faint radish
I think heβs still VP in a tie. Cause all this happens before Jan 20
shut vine
^
faint radish
Yeah, then they vote on candidates (if an EC tie).
If the senate is 50-50, pence can break that tie
shut vine
Doesn't matter, President of the senate is not a voting seat, they just break ties.
faint radish
Nah just 51
shut vine
Same rule for the house and for the senate.
faint radish
No 2/3 for EC tie
foggy fern
The Senate must choose between the two top electoral vote recipients, with at least two-thirds of the Senateβs members voting.
faint radish
2/3rds must vote, not vote for same person
foggy fern
Ah, yeah, the actual amendment is clearer
faint radish
So yeah, pence can break a 50/50 tie in his own election for VP
shut vine
Line of succession procedure stuff is very grey area though, there are so many constitutional amendments and bills that affect it.
I don't think in this election we'd want any ties.
foggy fern
Yeah seems like it's agreed he could break the tie to vote for himself
I feel like we'd be more worried about the civil war happening at the time though so this probably wouldn't get a lot of attention
fast flame
yeah no one would be giving two fucks about the election at that point lol
foggy fern
He would definitely be Acting President though and not be able to appoint a VP
Pending the House unfucking themselves and picking a real President
foggy fern
That's for the tie-breaking, I'm talking about is the House also ties but the Senate doesn't
VP becomes Acting President and we have no VP
Technically Pence is still in the office of VP but executing the power of the President and there is no one in the office of President
shut vine
1.9M BIden to 1.6M Trump
foggy fern
Guess AP got newer numbers than the others so far
They probably aren't paying a lot of attention to it, that race is over
shut vine
Probably, we'll see either way
foggy fern
Libertarian candidate in Georgia might trigger a runoff in the main Senate race too
So we've have both seats up for a runoff election in January and most likely whoever wins them wins the Senate
shut vine
NC still completely uncertain
weary obsidian
nc will have mail in ballots to count for a few days
foggy fern
My prediction for the Senate was 52/48 Democrat, btw. Polling going in to today was 54/46 but the range was something like 49-56/44-51
shut vine
I'm thinking FL overestimated voter turnout by 6%, it's just sit there.
foggy fern
If the election is close enough they'll have to go through and validate all the provisional ballots too
shut vine
Only by about 25%
brisk cradle
Democrats need to beat Susan Collins, since Doug Jones is toast.
shut vine
Yeah