Is game development worth a shot?

[lone forge]

[TLDR at bottom]
I have been a hobbyist dabbling here and there in game dev for a long while and more recently taken a deeper dive into it. I have ADHD and have always struggled with finding a consistent passion. Throughout my life I have developed tons of skills in pursuit of temporary interests, but very few have ever stuck.
At this point in my life the deadline for picking some sort of a career path is closing in. I have the ability to make it by with just the income from my part time job for a while longer, but I will need a more sustainable income soon.
I am just finishing up an internship for web development, but do not feel as though that's what I want to do with my life. I am considering trying my hand at success with game development. It has always been alluring to me due to the large amount of skill it employs, but the idea of being successful with it has been something I never dared looked at seriously. Though I have been getting a lot of encouragement recently and so I am taking a closer look at it.

I have the art skills to make the majority of the visual assets and the coding skills to handle all the programming. I have some money set aside that I could spend on freelancing music, sound design and any of the remaining art such as cover art or things I want to have special attention. I have light experience with managing and growing social media accounts, but only as an artist.
I am willing to do whatever I have to in order for it to succeed and I am very confident in my abilities to make a "good" game. However, is that enough? I don't need to be the next indie sensation, but it does need to pay some bills and I do not want to end up just playing a lottery.

In the end I suppose what I am asking is, in game development how much of success is based on luck vs effort?
Does it matter at all how good of a game I make or does it all just come down to chance? Is it worth giving it a shot or is that a stupid idea?

TLDR: I have the skills and am willing to put in the effort to make a quality game and market it. Does that mean it is more likely to work out or in the end is it completely up to chance? I know there will be some amount of chance regardless, but I am just trying to weigh the odds.

[lone forge]

Is game development worth a shot?

[burnt sinew]

Working as a game dev at a pre-established company will be significantly less risk, if financial security is something you need

Being successful as an indie is, unfortunately, rare and mostly luck. Games with no marketing can be smash hits just by word of mouth, and games with a ton of marketing can falter

Not to say that success is impossible as an indie. It's possible. But depending on your definition of "success", it may be a goal you never reach

There is no time limit on these things though. There's no shame in working at a games company so that you can earn a living and survive, while developing your own game in your free time independently

Lotta work though

[lone forge]

The idea is that I am at a place where I am not in the need of money right now so I am considering investing my time into making a game with the intention of getting some degree of success in order to make extra on the side of a part time job. It doesn't need to succeed, but I can't pursue it with the concept that I have an unrealistic chance of gaining anything.

Its like the difference of a side-gig and a hobby I am looking to see if it is a viable side-gig. If I put in the effort and make a quality game is there a decent chance for it to make a few dollars here and there or is the entire industry just a big lottery?

[burnt sinew]

Oh no it's not a big lottery, not at all. Enough hard work can get you results. Chance does come into it, but I am probably overstating how big of a role it plays, just for sake of being cautious (I don't want to be the guy to say "yes go do it follow your dreams" and then feel responsible if god forbid you fail)

Sorry if I made it sound like your hard work would be for nothing not my intention.
You can absolutely make a game that is successful, and earn you money. It happens all the time. I just think it's also important to remember that a lot of people put work into things, and it fails because you don't hear about Joe Everyman who didn't make that one game no one heard of

tl;dr Yes, it could work. But don't expect 100% certainty that it'll work

[lone forge]

Yeah of course there will always be a degree of luck. Its just a matter of how much I can begin to tip the odds in my favor before spinning the wheel.

[burnt sinew]

I think the phrase "it's not what you know, it's who you know" applies a lot too.
Team Meat (the guys behind Super Meat Boy) is just 2 guys who make games together. But Super Meat Boy blew up in popularity because they made a deal with Microsoft to market/publish it. So it may be worth remembering that you can always reach out to some publisher, or marketing team, or both. You don't have to do it 100% alone

I mean if you want some decent advertising, you'll have to invest in marketing at some point. Word of mouth only goes so far

[lone forge]

Yeah if I get a good idea I will absolutely invest in some marketing.
Was talking in some other communities and the consensus seemed to be that marketing was definitely a key factor as well as having a selling point such as either a unique art style or a unique or desired mechanic.

[burnt sinew]

Absolutely

So yeah. With enough hard work, and marketing it right, you could for sure do it. Like you said you probably won't be some viral sensation unless you are very lucky but you could absolutely make a comfortable living I would say