I've been testing it for a bit now and it seems like where you actually shoot relative to the crosshair changes based on on one of two things. Not sure if it's a issue determined at spawn or if it's based on what kind of room you're in and your positioning to walls. On targets standing still while I'm also standing still I have these issues so it's not like I just can't lead a shot, it's easy to test on mobs in all the room types.
My arrows have gone...
Dead center accurate
A bit below and to the right of the crosshair
Wayyy off to the left of the crosshair to the point I aim and shoot high over the edge of a targets specific shoulder to hit headshots