Polychrome 8 ball joker might have issues proccing

[next prism]

I had gotten a double tag followed by a polychrome tag, and before the first ante was up I had a polychrome "8 ball" joker in hand. I got to the 3rd ante playing as many rounds and as many 8s as I could maintaining an open space in my consumables, but never once procced that 1 in 4 chance. I picked up "Oops! All 6's" at the start of the fourth ante to improve the odds (to 1 in 2), and made it to the boss blind playing as many 8's again.. I played at least six 8's after getting the "Oops! All 6's" and I had a "Splash" joker to boot, so I was able and did play them every chance that I had, and still not a single activation.

//EDIT//
Please stop leaving comments saying its "bad" luck, read what has already been written in response to the others.

Please leave feedback IF you have had a POLYCHROME 8 BALL joker and you HAVE or HAVE NOT seen it activate at some point since this last update. This would be most helpful.

Thank you, and just to clarify the polychrome on the joker worked fine. The cards function would not activate.

For activation to not have occurred was a 1 in 1250 of a chance.

[craggy hare]

Maybe you just have bad luck in that game. I thought lucky card is bugged when the mobile version released since no single lucky cards were activated in first game.

[next prism]

I considered this, but prioritizing playing 8's I even put lucky on two of them and wild on another, but... for a 25% chance to not hit after 12 instances, and then having a 50% chance for 6 instances.. is beyond believable, and although not impossible is statistically very improbable.

i did see the lucky's activate a decent number of times for the two 8s that had that enhancement.

[craggy hare]

25% chance 12 instance no activation probability : 0.75^12 = 0.0316, 50% chance 6 instances no activation probability : 0.5^6 = 0.015. Both of them are low numbers but not extremely impossible. These are over 10 times of Cavendish's extinction probability 0.001.

[next prism]

is that not to find out the probability of something activating consecutively?

[craggy hare]

No it isn't. That's why consecutive failure can't be the certain reason for bug. I mean, It might be a bug but still have possibility of bad luck.

[next prism]

pretty sure... it's the sum of (n!/(X!(n-1)!)) * p^X * (1 - p)^(n-x) where for the latter 50% at 6 attempts gives a whopping 98% chance for success... It has been a while since i've taken statistics.. but.. it is verifiable through a quick google search... and this doesnt even take into account the first 12 attempts at 25% chance.

btw, 12 attempts at 25% chance is 96% chance for success... so.. as I had said, incredibly improbable, but not impossible.. It definitely constitutes for a look.. I only want the game to fuction the way it is intended to..

[shy lion]

Could be a case of a glitched seed

Do you still have the run or did you leave it

Also do you remember anything else probability based triggering

[nocturne zealot]

those kinds of calculations dont work in software where you pull a random number like this

balatro is constantly using its rng so it may happen that every time the 8 ball tarot pulled a rng call it was a low roll

and everytime it was a whatever-roll it was used for generating the store or pack contents etc

the wheel-of-fortune also has a 25% activation rate and an equally bad reputation for 10 wheel dead streaks

[craggy hare]

Yeah actually 'random' in the game is pseudo-random using seeded rng. I just tried to say that it's not impossible and have possibility of being not glitched.

[craggy hare]

And in my opinion, probabilistic approach is not too weird since from human perspective it seems working natural-random way though this is pseudo-RNG.

[next prism]

that run is dead, but I was wondering if the polychrome had an ill affect on the 8 ball joker, cause i have known it to work in the past.

[next prism]

ya, i had 4 lucky enhanced cards that were hitting every now and then when played..

[next prism]

even if the game doesnt use this exact equation, it should be a metric in which the game mechanics can be measured upon..

[next prism]

as im not certain if we should take outcomes from separate runs into account: i must reinforce here that the high percentages of at least one success with successive attempts within the same run (an isolated system), with two back to back populations of data to refer to, indicates with little doubt that either something was not working as intended.. Or human error occurred; I missed the tarot card generation, full consumable slots.. ect. Although I was being very actively aware of the slot situation, and the relative presumed "bad" luck...

[mint cradle]

I had a space joker not activate for 25 hands in a row lol. Not even activating on a throwaway hand. Just bad luck

[next prism]

it happens, it isnt impossible.. but that is incredibly unlucky.. but again.. it is a single event. Since the chance changed, there are 2 separate events and for NEITHER of them to produce a success is a 0.08% of a chance... P((AuB)') to find the probablity of neither chance occurring.. This merits the request for it to be looked into..

[twilit warren]

Bad luck

[nocturne zealot]

if you trust your own math it sounds like a 96% chance to not miss means it was a 4% chance to experience that run

[next prism]

0.08% of a chance for no activation given 96% without Oops! All 6's and 98% with to activate.. constituting for A and B, respectively.

[silent bloom]

Statistically improbable things happen all the time

[nocturne zealot]

yeah it sounds much more dire when you don't say 1 in 1000

but you also arent counting all of the rng calls being used to fill the shop

which would have been 8 ball activations if they had been 8ball rng calls

that's what i mean

[next prism]

Thank you, I will update the post to reflect the possibility based on this point.