#Emergency Button; Uncommon
1 messages · Page 1 of 1 (latest)
to avoid having a dedicated button, you could just make it discard your hand if you click discard with no cards selected
oh thats so much better, I was trying to figure out how to trigger it without it being everytime.
the problem is that you use discards to try to get a specific 5 cards, if you use this after you lose your discards then you are most likely going to end up discarding at least 2-3 of the cards that you wanted
Thats why its an emergency button, if you have used ALL of your discards and still don't have what you need, you can either use a hand to try and dig deeper OR this just refreshes your whole hand.
im saying that you cant really use it as an emergency button because you will have some of what you need when you use it
I started trying to do the math to check likelyhoods, but after an hour of trying to remember how to do probability of events in a set I am giving up.
Ok, I remembered the type of equation I needed it is a hypergeometric distribution equation. Anyways, let us assume you have hand size 8, 3 discards, you have used all discards and you need a heart flush. Let us assume you already have 3 hearts in hand. There are 34 cards remaining in the deck, 10 of which will give you a flush. If you play 5 random cards there is a 46% chance you draw at least 2 hearts to complete the flush. If you emergency button there is a 3% chance of success. So yes it is much better to play the random hand but the reason its an emergency button is because it would be a last resort. There are tons of factors that can effect how helpful it would be as well.
At 2 hearts in hand it shifts to 18% vs 6% and at 1 heart in hand it is 5% vs 8%
If anyone else wants to run some numbers this is how to use the formula. https://stattrek.com/probability-distributions/hypergeometric
How to use the hypergeometric distribution to find the probability associated with a hypergeometric random variable. Problems with solutions.
This would definitely not be used as a last resort and more likely something like a first hand refresh if you don't start off drawing something
Which doesn't really make this much of an emergency button honestly
I Still like the idea maybe just needs a different name.
Maybe if you sell it, it discards and redraws your hand? That could be a “get out of jail free” joker.
That's too weak