#2024 AI Predictions

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gleaming hinge
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Post your predictions about AI for 2024 here. We'll see who was right in another year!

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(reserved)

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My predictions: GPT-4.5 in March, GPT-5 in late summer or early fall. Google stays behind but slowly closes the gap and beats OpenAI in some way or another, even if it's just on something like prices. Multimodality keeps developing but the pace is slow and hallucinations continue being an issue like they currently are with not much progress solving them. Open source models come out which beat 3.5 if barely, 4 is maybe within reach too but who knows?

mortal ice
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gpt 5 come in february

marsh bear
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midjourney video

exotic peak
still tangle
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Google ahem Alphabet will ruin Youtube using Bard in everything

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not a prediction probably

gleaming hinge
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Inshallah, TrentBot will hit 24k servers in 2024

still tangle
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and looking for certains quotes inside videos etc

still tangle
steep valve
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CumGPT website

still tangle
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is this an auction!? I say ASI

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who gives more

marble shale
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Great breakthroughs toward self-learning and self-improving ASI will happen behind closed doors with exponentially increasing results and implications. As to whether the discovering party is benevolent or exploitative with their breakthroughs, who knows. As long as money is involved, which obviously it will be, with shareholders having stake, it will probably be exploited for an advantage.

exotic peak
trail orchid
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Dall-e 3 uncensored

celest wedge
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GPT voiceovers

obsidian skiff
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  • open source will gain ground on gpt4. Probably a llama 3 model before July
  • refined high-quality synthetic training data will make training powerful models with much fewer parameters feasible and also paves the way for curing the black box problem with neural networks
  • more efficient models paired with more advanced chips will see us placing models on par with current gpt4 on your phone and in wearables.
  • consumers and even non-programmers will be able to create their own custom fine-tuned models using open source data cleaning and training software
misty aspen
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2024

marsh bear
high star
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GPT-5 will not be released this year. If we are being pessimistic, it may be released by the end of December. I speculate that it will only be available for big tech companies and will be priced at three times the cost of GPT-32k.

gleaming hinge
exotic peak
static wind
# high star GPT-5 will not be released this year. If we are being pessimistic, it may be rel...

I would honestly be surprised if we get a GPT-5 at all
If we do, it's gonna have to be something other than "bigger model = betterer" - the parameter race is already basically dead
Personally, I'm super interested in seeing where MoE goes, mixtral is very promising
My prediction? Probably something approaching GPT-4-turbo being released as open source (note, not OG GPT-4, imo). Not sure who it's gonna come from, or if it's gonna be monolithic or MoE, but I think it's happening probably this year

still mantle
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I think falcon is going to be a bigger player. Abu Dhabi is investing heavily in it and if it comes down to resources, I feel like they’re likely to throw more money at an open source model than a public company like Facebook.

earnest path
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travis scott will get injured by bullets

static wind
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my money is on mistral with MoE - it seems to punch well above it's weight class in terms of parameter count

round pebble
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GPT-5 in late Q3 or Q4 2024, possibly with a limited or test feature release earlier in the year.

quiet olive
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And probably GPT-4.5 in Q4 this year, or even earlier.

high lichen
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AI companies will face lot of problems this year including legal, moral, ethical laws created by governments which will eventually slow down the AI progress and open source uncensored AI will come late due to such reasons.
It would be good if there is an uncensored and free AI in future but I can't see such AI in next 6 years.

quiet olive
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(and North Korea, Russia etc)

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If the West isn't careful it could be leapfrogged in AI tech.

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To stay ahead, western countries might need to drop all regulations for AI/AGI, to have a chance to stay on top, internationally, in the A(G)I scene..

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..which spells interesting times in the future (according to that chinese proverb).

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imho, AI regulations are not useful anyway, as opensource models will be developed by hackers anyway. I say, let people develop AI as they wish, without any regulations and let things unfold naturally :)

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So AI will be democracized among the general population, until everybody is on the same footing, which will enable people to use AI to protect themself against AI hackers..

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AI is only then as dangerous, if it's a monopoly in the hands of shady people.

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Weapons are most dangerous, if in the hands of a few offenders, but not as dangerous if everybody has them.

marsh bear
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GPTs will be awailable for anyone

wintry rose
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Hopefully improved video AI

unreal yew
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I think Poe.com will become more popular in March!

exotic peak
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my predictions for gpt5 release:
mid-late 2024
has 256k and 512k context
the 512k context version will only be available for really big companies
gpt5turbo releases 10 months later, and has 1M context

vision is going to get significantly improved

new modality
way better at following complex instructions, and reasoning

cot+gpt5 = basic AGI

sour hearth
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i predict significant job losses and society refusing to acknowledge the need for UBI, leading to riots and revolutions and a new anti-AI religion/cult

gleaming hinge
sour hearth
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the twist is the leader of the cult was me all along, and i am pro-AI! bwahaha

rich crescent
marsh bear
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  1. GPT 4.5
  2. Faster responses
  3. Local pricing ChatGPT Plus
  4. Cheaper tokens
  5. ChatGPT free GPTs accessible
gleaming hinge
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Making another prediction here - OpenAI will release a multimodal embedding API endpoint sometime this year

exotic peak
sour hearth
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i predict the next update will include the memory feature... that they leaked with the teams update, much like they leaked teams with the launch of custom gpt.

gleaming hinge
exotic peak
gleaming hinge
exotic peak
waxen robin
tribal aurora
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Hello

rich crescent
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omg, he predicted "hello"

high star
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My Predictions 2.0
GPT-5 may be released in mid-November or December.
Even if GPT-5 is double, triple, or ten times better than GPT-4, we are still not close to the so-called 'AGI', which perfectly simulates a living being. This remains science fiction; there are still discoveries and breakthroughs missing. Even so, many people considered 'geniuses' in the field, such as Ilya, one of the co-founders of OpenAI, for some reason, have adhered to the belief that "we are dangerously close to an 'AGI' that will harm the human species." It won't, not only because it is far off, but at this stage, it's not even certain if it is possible. To begin with, there are no solid definitions for what actually characterizes things like intelligence or consciousness; our definitions remain primitive. It's the same type of 'genius' who, years ago, kept insisting that global warming would end the world in 2023.

sour hearth
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big pharma-tech will rule the world in the next 12 months (if it doesnt already)

gleaming hinge
sour hearth
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my prediction is apple introduce a new term for AGI and everyone adopts it like the sheeple they are

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and itd be super dumb like iAI

quick rampart
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How are the us banks fairing for tomorrow?

obsidian walrus
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prediction: video generators in 2024 december will be too realistic to differenciate

errant parcel
sour hearth
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I predict throughout 2024 the sheeple will continue to refer to a huge binary checkpoint file with no instructions on how to build it as, 'open source'

rich crescent
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breaking news: a person dies due to AI.

sour hearth
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i predict GPT4 will lose the numbering and embrace being evergreen

pale cloak
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I predict the world will be ruled by AI governments by the end of 2025

sour hearth
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i predict WW3 breaks out because of NATO defunding, leading to a 24/7 barrage of AI attacks across the entire Internet in all directions

rich crescent
rich crescent
sour hearth
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i predict some idjit replies to me with inane stupidity on discord in 2024 (that isnt AI)

wintry rose
rich crescent
gleaming hinge
rich crescent
wintry rose
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Maybe cars will implement AI

rich crescent
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i think they already are

wintry rose
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Oh

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So I was technically right

exotic peak
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no

rich crescent
wintry rose
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Good point

rich crescent
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and if that's true then. the grammar must be corrected too. LuL

wintry rose
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Okay, so my next prediction is for GPT-5 to be released this year

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I bet someone else probably already said this, but that's my prediction

round pebble
# gleaming hinge A prediction I'm very confident in: by the end of 2024, we will be closer to *ha...

way before AGI (and it's already happening with Google's weird attempt to define it in stages), and increasing every year, people are going to start advertising their products as being some kind of AGI or "on the cusp of AGI". I mean, Sam's "let's build AGI together" at the end of their presentation was a sign of the times.

Meanwhile, as we could have guessed already if we thought about it in realistic rather than sci-fi novel terms, AGI will come by a process of adding feature after feature of things that AI is immediately dramatically better than us on. AI will never hit human "parity" because it'll rubberband way past us immediately in anything it becomes good at; just the nature of the beast. Once we can't find anything we're routinely as good or better than AI at, we'll have stumbled into AGI. It'll be the result of iteratively taking on weakness after weakness until we just can't find anything we're regularly outperforming it on anymore

vocal bear
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Hopefully we can push to 1M tokens with NIAH haystack retrieval at 100% as the baselevel LLM standard this year. RAG still remains shotty and Gemini 1.5 is a good promise, but that functionality should need to be in ChatGPT ASAP.

To put things into perspective, there's the trajectory of OpenAI's and Google's most-known models and the token context memory for each one.

Magic.dev is already talking up to 10M context tokens with basically no accuracy impairment, and their main aim is to make a tool that'd be easier in refactoring large codebases, which in of itself might be a massive accelerant to code improvement in the near future.

I think that kind of a trajectory is something that can at some point start to produce very interesting results at a very fast pace. Basically the same as seen with OpenAI's Sora model, throw more compute at it and see what happens, but in this context it would be token context with exact retrieval.

Also, probably hybrid models (in addition to multimodality) for text generation are in the works and in the horizon (think of Mamba + GPT architectures combined; think of all the multimodal results from i.e. Gemini and such -- maybe near-future RAG implementations; no more cut-off dates if we're lucky)...

The token context memory is something that I'd daresay will be one of the key catalysts to really ramp things up. When we're talking about the possibility to refactor entire codebases just like that, or translate from programming language A to B just like that, it'll be a pretty interesting shift. More than likely, this is what we'll see this year, unless there's something that hinders the process (read: mostly politics-/geopolitics-/societal paradigm shift-related stuff).

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trail halo
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AI is coming

rich crescent
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it already has

exotic peak
round pebble
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AI is coming 💦

vast juniper
earnest path
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The fog is coming

sour hearth
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china bans murican models. murica bans china models. everyone else chooses a side. except russia who builds their own model (which mostly sucks).

stable iris
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electric grid n net r going down this yr. soon everyones phone will just be a client for their ai swarm daw cloud server that hosts and protects all their data, paying for it own compute and distributed storage through non-kyc crypto trade algos

rich crescent
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ai will have huge impact in crypto

unique crystal
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  • GPT-5 somewhere in November (June 30th edit: we have GPT-4o but no GPT-5. It's likely we'll instead get some sort of GPT-4o-turbo later this year if anything)
    (Related) - Copilot gains access to GPT-5, but you need Copilot Pro to use it and it will be called Copilot Advanced

  • Windows becomes even more invested into Copilot, to the point someone in Microsoft considers renaming it Copilot OS (but it doesn't happen)

  • A feature film will be made with just AI (June 30th edit: it came true)

  • Netflix will get an AI assistant to help you find shows (kinda like the Hey, Netflix Discord bot)

sour hearth
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open ear earbuds outsell the chatgpt earbuds, and 1/5th of all tech enthusiasts are using either by the end of the year

flint locust
mortal ice
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i move gpt5 to end of this year

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somewhere around nov to dec

shadow crater
rich crescent
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lol

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prediction: ai will be in plane and new companay will arise around that topic

marsh bear
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i predict gpt-4o will release

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i predict that gemini will release a new model called "flash"

shadow crater
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gemini flesh?

daring plaza
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q

mortal ice
daring plaza
wintry rose
marsh bear
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that's gpt o1

wintry rose
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Technically, yeah

wintry rose
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Lol nvm I guess

rich crescent
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i predict that gpt and claude with collab up to 2025 nov

wintry rose
rich crescent
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just a simple what if

torpid garden
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I predict that GPT 5 will be given a different name, but people will still be disappointed. And OpenAI will start deleting old chats to make room on their servers.

half glacier
daring plaza
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agi in 3 months to 2 years

open wing
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nothing changes